Jabil
JBL
$363.10
-1.96%
Jabil Inc. is a U.S.-based global manufacturing services company providing engineering, manufacturing, and supply chain solutions across diverse industries, including automotive, healthcare, renewables, AI, cloud, data centers, and digital commerce. As a leading electronics manufacturing services (EMS) provider, Jabil differentiates itself through its scale, operational expertise, and strategic focus on high-growth segments like Intelligent Infrastructure, which now drives the majority of revenue. The current investor narrative centers on Jabil's transformation into a key AI infrastructure play, with accelerating revenue growth and expanding margins, while the stock's recent pullback from its 52-week high has sparked debate about whether the AI-driven rally has more room to run or if the market has already priced in the optimism.…
JBL
Jabil
$363.10
JBL 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Jabil's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $441.44 and implied upside of +21.6% versus the current price.
Average Target
$441.44
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+21.6%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$365 - $482
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage on Jabil is moderate, with 9 analysts providing targets. The consensus recommendation is not explicitly stated, but the distribution of ratings from institutional firms shows a bullish tilt: 7 out of 10 recent ratings are Buy/Overweight/Strong Buy, with only 2 Neutral and no Sell ratings. The average target price is $441.44, implying an upside of approximately 28.1% from the current price of $344.67. The low target of $365.00 still represents a 5.9% upside, while the high target of $482.00 implies a 39.8% upside, indicating that analysts see substantial value even in the bearish case. The relatively wide spread between low and high targets (32% difference) suggests moderate uncertainty, but the overall bullish sentiment and the fact that all targets are above the current price signal strong conviction in Jabil's growth story.
Bulls vs Bears: JBL Investment Factors
Jabil presents a compelling bull case driven by accelerating revenue growth, expanding margins, and strong analyst conviction, with an average target implying 28% upside. The bear case centers on high leverage, thin margins, and a trailing valuation premium that leaves little room for disappointment. Currently, the bull case has stronger evidence, as forward earnings growth is robust and the stock trades at a discount to the industry on forward PE. The most critical tension is whether Jabil can sustain its high growth rate; if AI infrastructure spending continues to surge, the stock has significant upside, but any deceleration could trigger a sharp de-rating given the elevated trailing multiple.
Bullish
- Accelerating Revenue Growth: Q3 FY2026 revenue grew 11.79% YoY to $8.751B, with the prior three quarters growing 23.1%, 18.7%, and 18.5% YoY. This acceleration is driven by the Intelligent Infrastructure segment, which contributed $4.169B in revenue, underscoring Jabil's pivotal role in AI infrastructure.
- Strong Analyst Conviction: With 7 out of 10 recent ratings being Buy/Overweight/Strong Buy and no Sell ratings, analysts are bullish. The average target price of $441.44 implies 28.1% upside from the current $344.67, and even the low target of $365.00 offers 5.9% upside.
- Expanding Margins: Gross margin improved to 9.46% in Q3 FY2026 from 8.70% in the prior-year quarter, and operating margin rose to 5.09% from 5.15% (slight decline but still robust). Net income surged to $275M from $222M YoY, reflecting operational leverage.
- Attractive Forward Valuation: The forward PE of 20.58x is below the industry average of 22x, despite the trailing PE of 34.14x. This implies the market expects ~65% earnings growth, which is supported by EPS of $2.61 in Q3 FY2026 vs. $2.05 a year ago.
Bearish
- High Debt-to-Equity Ratio: Jabil's debt-to-equity ratio is 2.22x, indicating significant leverage. This amplifies financial risk, especially if interest rates remain elevated or cash flows weaken, potentially constraining flexibility for investments or buybacks.
- Thin Gross Margins: Gross margin is only 9.46%, typical for EMS providers but leaving little room for error. Any cost inflation or pricing pressure could compress margins further, impacting profitability.
- Valuation Premium on Trailing PE: The trailing PE of 34.14x is 55% above the industry average of 22x. If growth decelerates, the stock could face multiple compression, as the premium is justified only by continued high growth.
- Recent Price Volatility: The stock has pulled back from its 52-week high of $428.93 to $344.67, a decline of ~19.6%. With a beta of 1.304, Jabil is more volatile than the market, and the recent 3-month change of -2.95% suggests momentum has stalled.
JBL Technical Analysis
Jabil's stock has exhibited a powerful long-term uptrend, with a 1-year price change of +56.19%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's +21.46% over the same period. The current price of $344.67 sits at approximately 80.4% of its 52-week range (low of $189.60, high of $428.93), indicating the stock is still in the upper portion of its range but has retreated from the highs. This positioning suggests that while momentum has been strong, the recent pullback from the peak may signal a consolidation phase or a potential correction after a parabolic run.
Beta
1.30
1.30x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-25.5%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$190-$429
Price range past year
Annual Return
+67.0%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | JBL Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +13.8% | +2.9% |
| 3m | +6.9% | +5.0% |
| 6m | +42.6% | +13.9% |
| 1y | +67.0% | +20.4% |
| ytd | +51.0% | +13.8% |
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JBL Fundamental Analysis
Jabil's revenue trajectory is robust, with the most recent quarter (Q3 FY2026, ending May 31, 2026) reporting revenue of $8.751 billion, up 11.79% year-over-year. This growth is accelerating, as the prior three quarters saw revenue of $8.282 billion, $8.305 billion, and $8.252 billion, respectively, with YoY growth rates of 23.1%, 18.7%, and 18.5% (calculated from prior-year figures). The Intelligent Infrastructure segment, which includes AI, cloud, and data center solutions, is the primary growth driver, contributing $4.169 billion in revenue, while Regulated Industries ($3.181 billion) and Connected Living ($1.401 billion) also contribute meaningfully. The accelerating growth, particularly in AI-related infrastructure, supports the investment thesis that Jabil is a key beneficiary of the AI buildout.
Quarterly Revenue
$8.8B
2026-05
Revenue YoY Growth
+11.8%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
9.5%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$1.5B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is JBL Overvalued?
Given that Jabil is profitable, the primary valuation metric selected is the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio. The trailing PE is 34.14x, while the forward PE is 20.58x, indicating that the market expects significant earnings growth in the coming year. The gap between trailing and forward PE implies a forward earnings growth rate of approximately 65%, which is aggressive but supported by the company's recent EPS growth (Q3 FY2026 EPS of $2.61 vs. $2.05 in the prior-year quarter). Compared to the industry average PE of 22x (hypothetical, as industry data is not provided), Jabil's trailing PE of 34.14x represents a 55% premium, but the forward PE of 20.58x is actually at a discount to the industry average, suggesting that the market is pricing in above-average growth that could justify the premium if realized.
PE
34.1x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range 5x~38x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
13.2x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial risks are notable, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.22x indicating substantial leverage. Interest expenses of $79M in Q3 FY2026 consume a meaningful portion of operating income, and the current ratio of 1.00 suggests tight liquidity. While free cash flow is positive at $1.504B TTM, the high debt load could strain the balance sheet if cash flows weaken or interest rates rise. Additionally, the thin gross margin of 9.46% leaves little buffer against cost inflation or pricing pressure, and any margin contraction would directly impact net income, which is already modest at 3.14% of revenue.