Jefferies & Company
JEF
$51.78
-3.31%
Jefferies Financial Group Inc. is a full-service investment banking and capital markets firm, providing advisory, underwriting, and trading services primarily to the North American middle market. The company has carved out a distinct identity as a nimble, independent player in an industry dominated by large universal banks, leveraging its merger with Leucadia to streamline operations and focus on its core investment banking franchise. Currently, the investor narrative centers on the firm's ability to capitalize on a rebound in M&A and capital markets activity, as evidenced by strong recent revenue growth, while also navigating the challenges of a volatile trading environment and the integration of its diversified financial services businesses.…
JEF
Jefferies & Company
$51.78
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy JEF Today?
Based on the data, I rate JEF as a Buy. The thesis is that accelerating revenue growth and a forward PE of 12.1x offer an attractive risk/reward, with analyst consensus supporting upside. The average target of $61.50 implies 11.5% upside, and the high target of $83 suggests significant potential if growth continues.
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JEF 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is bullish with medium confidence. The strong revenue acceleration and attractive forward valuation support a positive outlook, but the high debt and negative cash flow introduce uncertainty. If revenue growth continues at 30%+ and the company improves cash flow, the stock could re-rate higher. Conversely, if growth slows or leverage becomes a problem, the stance would be downgraded to neutral. Key factors to monitor are quarterly revenue growth, debt levels, and free cash flow trends.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Jefferies & Company's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $61.50 and implied upside of +18.8% versus the current price.
Average Target
$61.50
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+18.8%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$46 - $83
Analyst target range
Jefferies is covered by 6 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Buy' and a mean rating of 2.33 (where 1 is Strong Buy and 5 is Sell). The average target price is $61.50, implying an upside of 11.5% from the current price of $55.14. The target range is wide, from a low of $46.00 to a high of $83.00, reflecting significant uncertainty about the company's future performance. The high target of $83.00 assumes a strong recovery in investment banking and capital markets activity, while the low target of $46.00 factors in potential headwinds from market volatility and economic slowdown. Recent ratings actions have been mixed, with UBS downgrading from Buy to Neutral in June 2026, while Oppenheimer and Goldman Sachs have maintained positive stances, indicating a cautious but generally optimistic outlook.
Bulls vs Bears: JEF Investment Factors
Jefferies presents a compelling growth story with accelerating revenue and a reasonable forward PE, but it carries significant leverage and has underperformed the market. The bull case is supported by strong investment banking momentum and analyst optimism, while the bear case highlights high debt, negative cash flow, and valuation concerns. Currently, the bull case has slightly stronger evidence given the revenue acceleration and forward PE discount, but the key tension is whether the revenue growth can sustain and translate into earnings, given the high leverage and market volatility. If growth continues, the stock could re-rate higher; if not, the leverage could amplify downside.
Bullish
- Revenue Growth Accelerating: Q2 2026 revenue surged 36.7% YoY to $3.41B, up from 16.1% growth in Q1, indicating strong momentum in investment banking and trading. This acceleration suggests Jefferies is gaining market share in a recovering capital markets environment.
- Forward PE Attractive at 12.1x: The forward PE of 12.14x is well below the trailing PE of 19.43x, implying analysts expect significant EPS growth. This valuation is compelling for a firm with accelerating revenue and a Buy consensus.
- Analyst Consensus Buy with 11.5% Upside: With a mean rating of 2.33 (Buy) and an average target of $61.50, the stock offers 11.5% upside from $55.14. The high target of $83 suggests substantial potential if capital markets activity remains robust.
- Strong Investment Banking Revenue: Investment banking revenue reached $1.21B in Q2, leading the growth. This segment is a key driver of profitability and benefits from a rebound in M&A and underwriting, which is a core strength.
Bearish
- High Debt-to-Equity of 2.25: Jefferies carries a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.25, indicating significant leverage. This amplifies financial risk, especially if interest rates remain high or trading revenues decline.
- Negative Free Cash Flow Yield: The price-to-cash-flow ratio is -8.17, implying negative free cash flow. This is unusual for a profitable firm and may signal heavy capital requirements or working capital swings, limiting shareholder returns.
- Underperformance vs. Market: JEF is down 10.6% over the past year, while the S&P 500 gained 20.4%. Relative strength is negative across all timeframes, indicating persistent investor skepticism and potential for further underperformance.
- High Valuation on EV/EBITDA: EV/EBITDA stands at 20.66x, which is elevated for a capital markets firm. This suggests the market is pricing in strong future growth, leaving little room for disappointment.
JEF Technical Analysis
Jefferies' stock has experienced a volatile year, with a 1-year price change of -10.63%, yet it has shown resilience in recent months. The current price of $55.14 sits at 55.6% of its 52-week range (low of $35.53, high of $71.04), indicating a mid-range position that suggests neither extreme momentum nor deep value. This positioning reflects a stock that has recovered from its March 2026 lows but remains well below its June 2026 peak, suggesting a period of consolidation after a sharp selloff.
Beta
—
—
Max Drawdown
-48.8%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$36-$71
Price range past year
Annual Return
-12.8%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | JEF Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -8.7% | +1.9% |
| 3m | -0.4% | +2.3% |
| 6m | -3.1% | +10.6% |
| 1y | -12.8% | +19.5% |
| ytd | -18.4% | +11.8% |
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JEF Fundamental Analysis
Jefferies has demonstrated robust revenue growth, with the most recent quarter (Q2 2026) reporting revenue of $3.41 billion, a 36.74% year-over-year increase. This growth is accelerating, as Q1 2026 revenue was $2.87 billion (up 16.1% YoY), and the prior year's quarters showed more modest gains. The growth is broad-based, with investment banking revenue of $1.21 billion and principal transactions of $488.7 million leading the way, while asset management remains a small but stable contributor. This acceleration suggests that Jefferies is gaining market share in a recovering capital markets environment, which bodes well for future earnings.
Quarterly Revenue
$3.4B
2026-05
Revenue YoY Growth
+36.7%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
91.2%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$1.8B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is JEF Overvalued?
Given that Jefferies is profitable, the PE ratio is the primary valuation metric. The trailing PE is 19.43x, while the forward PE is 12.14x, indicating that the market expects significant earnings growth. This gap of 37.5% implies that analysts anticipate a substantial increase in EPS, likely driven by continued revenue growth and margin expansion. The PEG ratio is negative at -3.99, which is not meaningful due to the negative earnings growth rate used in its calculation, but the forward PE suggests a reasonable valuation relative to growth prospects.
PE
19.4x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range 6x~31x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
20.7x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial risks are prominent, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.25 indicating substantial leverage. Interest expenses were $911.7M in Q2, nearly 27% of revenue, which could pressure earnings if rates rise. The negative free cash flow (P/CF of -8.17) suggests the firm is consuming cash, potentially due to trading inventory or acquisitions, which limits financial flexibility. Additionally, the payout ratio of 52.7% indicates a moderate dividend, but if earnings decline, the dividend could be at risk.