Marathon Digital Holdings
MARA
$10.23
-5.01%
MARA Holdings, Inc. is a digital asset computing company that leverages Bitcoin mining and energy transformation to secure blockchain ledgers, while also developing technology solutions like liquid immersion cooling and firmware for miners. As one of the largest publicly traded Bitcoin miners, it holds a distinct position in the intersection of cryptocurrency and energy infrastructure, with a market cap of approximately $4.5 billion. The current investor narrative centers on its strategic pivot from pure Bitcoin mining to AI and high-performance computing, backed by significant land and power acquisitions, but this is tempered by recent financial losses and revenue declines, alongside Bitcoin's 50% drawdown from its peak, creating a high-stakes turnaround story.…
MARA
Marathon Digital Holdings
$10.23
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy MARA Today?
Rating: Hold. MARA is a speculative investment with a high-risk profile, and the current consensus is a 'Buy' with an average target of $17.99, implying 68.6% upside. However, the fundamental deterioration and extreme volatility warrant caution. The thesis is that the AI pivot could transform the company, but it is unproven and requires significant capital.
Sign up to view all
MARA 12-Month Price Forecast
The forward-looking view is cautiously neutral. While the AI pivot offers a potential catalyst, the current financial deterioration and extreme volatility make it difficult to be bullish. The stock's low PS ratio suggests value, but negative earnings and cash burn undermine confidence. I would upgrade to bullish if the company shows positive gross margins and secures AI revenue, or if Bitcoin prices stabilize above $70,000. I would downgrade to bearish if revenue decline accelerates or if the company announces a dilutive equity offering.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Marathon Digital Holdings's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $17.99 and implied upside of +75.9% versus the current price.
Average Target
$17.99
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+75.9%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$6 - $30
Analyst target range
MARA has coverage from 11 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Buy' and a mean recommendation score of 2.15 (where 1 is Strong Buy and 5 is Sell). The average target price is $17.99, implying a 68.6% upside from the current price of $10.67. The target range is wide, from a low of $6.00 to a high of $30.00, reflecting high uncertainty. The high target suggests optimism about the AI pivot and potential multiple expansion, while the low target prices in continued losses and Bitcoin volatility. Recent ratings include a mix of Buy, Overweight, and Hold, with Morgan Stanley maintaining an Underweight, indicating divergent views on the stock's prospects.
Bulls vs Bears: MARA Investment Factors
MARA presents a high-risk, high-reward opportunity. The bull case hinges on the successful pivot to AI and high-performance computing, which could unlock significant value beyond Bitcoin mining, supported by a low PS ratio and analyst optimism. However, the bear case is equally strong, with deeply negative margins, massive losses, and declining revenue, compounded by extreme volatility and dilution risks. Currently, the bearish evidence is more compelling due to the deteriorating financials, but the AI pivot provides a credible path to recovery. The most important tension is whether the AI transition can offset the core mining business's losses and generate sustainable profitability, which will determine the stock's long-term trajectory.
Bullish
- AI pivot unlocks new growth: MARA's strategic shift to AI and high-performance computing, backed by a massive land and power acquisition, could unlock far greater value than Bitcoin mining alone. This pivot is supported by recent news highlighting investor optimism for similar moves by peers like Cipher Mining and IREN.
- PS ratio near historical low: At 3.52x, MARA's price-to-sales ratio is near the bottom of its historical range of 15x-106x, suggesting the stock is trading at a significant discount to its own past valuation. This could indicate undervaluation if the company returns to profitability.
- Analyst consensus is Buy: With 11 analysts, the consensus recommendation is 'Buy' with a mean score of 2.15 (1=Strong Buy, 5=Sell). The average target price of $17.99 implies a 68.6% upside from the current price of $10.67, reflecting optimism about the AI pivot.
- Recent price recovery attempt: The stock has risen 19.4% over the past 6 months, indicating a recovery attempt from the lows. This momentum, combined with a 6.2% gain in the last month, suggests improving investor sentiment despite the longer-term downtrend.
Bearish
- Deeply negative gross margin: Gross margin turned deeply negative at -93.0% in Q1 2026, compared to positive margins in earlier quarters. This reflects the impact of Bitcoin price declines and higher costs, severely undermining profitability.
- Massive net loss and cash burn: Q1 2026 net income was a loss of $1.26 billion, with EPS of -$3.31, a dramatic swing from profitable quarters in mid-2025. Free cash flow was -$327 million in Q1, indicating significant cash burn and reliance on external financing.
- Revenue declining YoY: Q1 2026 revenue of $174.6 million was down 18.4% year-over-year, and sequentially from $202.3 million in Q4 2025. This declining top line raises concerns about the core Bitcoin mining business's viability.
- High beta and volatility: With a beta of 5.36, MARA is highly sensitive to market and Bitcoin price movements. The stock has experienced a max drawdown of -70.5%, and its 1-year price change of -33.1% significantly underperformed the S&P 500's +18.6% gain.
MARA Technical Analysis
MARA's price trend over the past year has been a pronounced downtrend, with a 1-year price change of -33.1%, significantly underperforming the S&P 500's +18.6% gain. The current price of $10.67 sits at 24.7% of its 52-week range (between $6.66 low and $23.45 high), indicating the stock is near the lower end of its range, which could signal either a value opportunity or a falling knife. The 6-month price change of +19.4% suggests a recovery attempt from the lows, but the longer-term trend remains bearish, with the stock trading 54.5% below its 52-week high.
Beta
5.36
5.36x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-70.5%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$7-$23
Price range past year
Annual Return
-36.0%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | MARA Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -9.6% | +2.0% |
| 3m | -26.7% | +1.0% |
| 6m | +16.6% | +11.8% |
| 1y | -36.0% | +18.1% |
| ytd | +3.2% | +11.7% |
Bobby - Your AI Investment Partner
Get real-time data, AI-driven personalized investment analysis to make smarter investment decisions
MARA Fundamental Analysis
MARA's revenue trajectory has been volatile and recently declining, with Q1 2026 revenue of $174.6 million, down 18.4% year-over-year, and a sequential decline from $202.3 million in Q4 2025. The company's gross margin turned deeply negative at -93.0% in Q1 2026, compared to positive margins in earlier quarters, reflecting the impact of Bitcoin price declines and higher costs. Net income for Q1 2026 was a loss of $1.26 billion, with an EPS of -$3.31, a dramatic swing from the profitable quarters in mid-2025, driven by impairment charges and other expenses. The company's balance sheet shows a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.05, and free cash flow was -$327 million in Q1 2026, indicating significant cash burn and reliance on external financing. The current ratio of 1.27 suggests adequate liquidity, but the negative ROE of -37.8% and ROA of -26.3% highlight poor profitability and asset efficiency.
Quarterly Revenue
$174614000.0B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
-18.4%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
-93.0%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$-1.3B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
Open an Account, get $2 TSLA now!
Valuation Analysis: Is MARA Overvalued?
Given MARA's negative net income, the price-to-sales (PS) ratio is the primary valuation metric, currently at 3.52x, which is lower than the industry average of 8.37x EV/Sales, indicating a potential discount. The forward PE of -9.28x is not meaningful due to losses, but the PS ratio suggests the market is pricing in a recovery. Historically, MARA's PS ratio has ranged from 15x to 106x over the past few years, with the current 3.52x near the bottom of its historical band, implying the stock is trading at a significant discount to its own historical valuation. The PEG ratio of 0.008 is misleading due to negative earnings, but the low PS ratio could indicate undervaluation if the company can return to profitability.
PE
-2.4x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 2x~14x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
-11.5x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial risks are severe. MARA's gross margin collapsed to -93.0% in Q1 2026, indicating that the cost of mining Bitcoin far exceeds the revenue generated, a direct consequence of Bitcoin's price decline. The company reported a net loss of $1.26 billion in Q1, with negative free cash flow of -$327 million, forcing reliance on external financing. With a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.05, the balance sheet is leveraged, and the negative ROE of -37.8% and ROA of -26.3% highlight poor profitability and asset efficiency. The current ratio of 1.27 provides some liquidity cushion, but the cash burn rate is unsustainable without additional capital raises, which would dilute existing shareholders.