Mondelez International
MDLZ
$60.67
+2.17%
Mondelez International, Inc. Class A operates as a global snacking powerhouse, primarily engaged in the manufacturing and marketing of biscuits, chocolate, gum, candy, beverages, and cheese under iconic brands such as Oreo, Chips Ahoy, Cadbury, and Halls. As a leading player in the consumer defensive sector, specifically within the food confectioners industry, Mondelez holds a dominant position in the global snack enclave, with a diversified geographic footprint that generates roughly one-third of revenue from developing markets, around 40% from Europe, and more than one-fourth from North America. The current investor narrative centers on the company's ability to navigate a challenging macroeconomic environment marked by European energy cost pressures and shifting consumer spending patterns, while maintaining its reputation as a reliable dividend payer. Recent headlines highlight Mondelez's appeal as a top dividend stock yielding over 3%, reinforcing its status as a stable income generator, even as the broader consumer staples sector faces headwinds from input cost inflation and currency fluctuations.…
MDLZ
Mondelez International
$60.67
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy MDLZ Today?
Based on the synthesis of analyst consensus, valuation, and growth prospects, MDLZ is rated a Hold. The core thesis is that the stock offers a balanced risk-reward profile: a defensive dividend yield of 3.57% and an 18.97% upside to the average analyst target of $69.23, but faces near-term headwinds from a high payout ratio (101.47%) and liquidity concerns (current ratio 0.592). The consensus recommendation of 'Buy' with a mean of 1.87 suggests analysts are optimistic, but the recent price weakness (-6.82% in 1 month) and underperformance versus the S&P 500 (-7.41% relative strength) warrant a cautious stance.
Supporting evidence for a Hold includes the forward PE of 17.30x, which is below the trailing PE of 28.48x and the industry average of 20-25x, indicating potential undervaluation on a forward basis. Revenue growth of 4.13% YoY in Q2 2026 is modest but steady, and profitability metrics show improvement with a net margin of 16.55% and operating margin of 20.80% in the latest quarter. Free cash flow of $3.085 billion provides ample coverage for dividends, although the payout ratio exceeds 100%. The dividend yield of 3.57% is attractive for income investors, and the low beta of 0.402 offers downside protection. However, the price-to-sales ratio of 1.81x is above the sector norm, and the PEG ratio is negative, reflecting earnings volatility.
Key risks that could invalidate the Hold rating include a dividend cut if earnings fail to cover the payout, further margin compression due to European energy costs, and a breakdown below the 52-week low of $51.20. The rating would upgrade to Buy if the forward PE compresses below 15x or if revenue growth accelerates above 6% with margin expansion. Conversely, a downgrade to Sell would occur if the payout ratio exceeds 110% or if the current ratio falls below 0.5. Relative to its history, the stock is fairly valued: the trailing PE of 28.48x is in the upper-middle range of its historical 11.4x-54.7x, while the price-to-book ratio of 2.70x is below the historical average of 3.0x. Overall, MDLZ appears fairly valued with a slight premium on trailing earnings but a discount on forward earnings.
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MDLZ 12-Month Price Forecast
MDLZ presents a balanced risk-reward profile with a neutral stance. The stock is attractively valued on a forward basis (17.30x PE) and offers a solid dividend yield of 3.57%, supported by a defensive business model with low beta (0.402). However, the high payout ratio and liquidity concerns are significant overhangs. Analyst sentiment is bullish, but recent price weakness and underperformance versus the market suggest caution. The base case (55% probability) targets $62-$69, implying moderate upside. I would upgrade to bullish if the company demonstrates sustained margin expansion and dividend coverage improves; I would downgrade to bearish if the payout ratio exceeds 110% or if revenue growth stalls below 2%.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Mondelez International's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $69.00 and implied upside of +13.7% versus the current price.
Average Target
$69.00
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+13.7%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$55 - $77
Analyst target range
The stock is covered by 22 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Buy' and an average target price of $69.23, implying a potential upside of 18.97% from the current price of $58.19. The recommendation mean of 1.87 (on a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 is Strong Buy) indicates a bullish tilt, with the majority of analysts favoring the stock. This positive sentiment is supported by the company's stable dividend yield of 3.57% and its defensive characteristics in a volatile market.
The target price range spans from a low of $55.00 to a high of $77.00, representing a wide spread of 40% from low to high. The high target of $77.00 assumes successful execution of growth initiatives, margin expansion, and favorable currency tailwinds, while the low target of $55.00 prices in risks such as margin compression, competitive pressures, and macroeconomic headwinds. Recent institutional ratings show mostly reaffirmations of Overweight and Buy ratings from firms like Barclays, JP Morgan, and TD Cowen, with no downgrades, suggesting that analysts remain confident in the company's outlook despite recent price weakness. The wide target spread signals uncertainty, but the consensus leans bullish, and the estimated EPS average of $4.22 for the fiscal year supports the optimistic case.
Bulls vs Bears: MDLZ Investment Factors
The bull case for MDLZ rests on its attractive forward valuation (17.30x PE), strong analyst consensus (18.97% upside), and defensive characteristics (beta 0.402, dividend yield 3.57%). However, the bear case highlights significant risks: a payout ratio exceeding 100%, a current ratio below 1, and recent underperformance versus the market. The most critical tension is whether the company can sustain its dividend and improve margins amid macroeconomic headwinds, particularly in Europe. Currently, the bull case has stronger evidence due to the forward PE discount and analyst optimism, but the high payout ratio and liquidity concerns warrant caution. The resolution of margin trends and dividend coverage will be pivotal in determining the stock's direction.
Bullish
- Attractive Forward Valuation: The forward PE of 17.30x is significantly below the trailing PE of 28.48x, implying expected earnings growth. This forward multiple is also below the food confectioners industry average of 20-25x, suggesting the stock is undervalued on a forward basis.
- Strong Analyst Consensus: 22 analysts rate MDLZ a 'Buy' with an average target price of $69.23, representing 18.97% upside from the current price of $58.19. The recommendation mean of 1.87 (1=Strong Buy) indicates strong bullish sentiment.
- Solid Revenue Growth and Profitability: Q2 2026 revenue grew 4.13% YoY to $9.355 billion, with net income of $1.548 billion (16.55% net margin). Gross margin expanded to 42.61% from 27.81% in Q1 2026, and operating margin improved to 20.80% from 8.53%.
- Reliable Dividend with High Yield: MDLZ offers a dividend yield of 3.57%, backed by a quarterly dividend of $0.50 per share. The company has consistently paid dividends, appealing to income-focused investors.
Bearish
- High Payout Ratio Threatens Dividend: The payout ratio of 101.47% exceeds 100%, meaning dividends are not fully covered by earnings. This raises concerns about the sustainability of the dividend if earnings decline.
- Liquidity Concerns from Low Current Ratio: The current ratio of 0.592 indicates that current liabilities exceed current assets, signaling potential liquidity tightness. This could constrain the company's ability to invest in growth or weather economic downturns.
- Recent Underperformance and Negative Momentum: MDLZ has underperformed the S&P 500 by 7.41% over the past month and 20.82% over the past year. The 1-month price decline of 6.82% and 3-month drop of 4.47% suggest negative short-term momentum.
- Premium Trailing Valuation: The trailing PE of 28.48x is above the industry average of 20-25x, indicating a premium that may not be justified given the modest revenue growth of 4.13% and net margin of 6.36%.
MDLZ Technical Analysis
MDLZ is currently in a recovery phase within a broader range-bound consolidation, with the stock trading at $58.19, which is 44.4% above its 52-week low of $51.20 but 12.7% below its 52-week high of $66.65. The 1-year price change of -5.81% indicates a mild downtrend over the past twelve months, yet the year-to-date gain of 8.46% suggests a recent stabilization and modest upward momentum. This positioning implies that the stock is neither overextended nor deeply undervalued, but rather in a neutral zone where investors are cautiously assessing the balance between income appeal and growth prospects.
Short-term momentum has been negative, with a 1-month decline of 6.82% and a 3-month drop of 4.47%, contrasting with the positive YTD performance of 8.46%. This divergence signals a potential pullback within a longer-term recovery, as the stock has given back some of its earlier gains. The relative strength against the S&P 500 over the past month is -7.41%, indicating significant underperformance, which could be attributed to sector rotation or profit-taking. The 6-month change of +1.13% further supports the view that the stock is consolidating after a period of volatility, with no clear directional bias in the near term.
Key technical levels to watch include support at the 52-week low of $51.20 and resistance at the 52-week high of $66.65. A breakdown below $51.20 would signal a bearish continuation and potentially trigger further selling, while a breakout above $66.65 would confirm a new uptrend and attract momentum buyers. The stock's beta of 0.402 indicates very low volatility relative to the market, meaning it is 59.8% less volatile than SPY, which makes it an attractive defensive holding but also limits upside potential during market rallies. The current price of $58.19 sits roughly midway between these extremes, suggesting a balanced risk-reward profile for traders.
Beta
0.39
0.39x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-20.0%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$51-$67
Price range past year
Annual Return
-1.6%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | MDLZ Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -1.6% | +1.0% |
| 3m | +3.1% | +2.5% |
| 6m | +2.8% | +13.9% |
| 1y | -1.6% | +15.0% |
| ytd | +13.1% | +13.5% |
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MDLZ Fundamental Analysis
Mondelez's revenue trajectory remains resilient, with the most recent quarter (Q2 2026) reporting revenue of $9.355 billion, representing a 4.13% year-over-year growth from $8.984 billion in Q2 2025. This growth is driven by the company's core segments, particularly Biscuits & Baked Snacks, which generated $4.735 billion, and Chocolate at $2.721 billion, together accounting for over 79% of total revenue. The multi-quarter trend shows sequential improvement from Q1 2026's $10.08 billion, although Q1 typically benefits from seasonal factors; the YoY comparison confirms a steady, albeit modest, expansion, underscoring the defensive nature of the snack business even amid economic uncertainty.
Profitability metrics reveal a company that is solidly profitable but facing margin pressures. In Q2 2026, net income was $1.548 billion, translating to a net margin of 16.55%, while the gross margin stood at 42.61%, a significant improvement from the 27.81% gross margin in Q1 2026. However, the operating margin for Q2 was 20.80%, up from 8.53% in the prior quarter, indicating effective cost management. The trailing twelve-month net margin is 6.36%, reflecting the impact of lower-margin quarters, but the recent quarterly performance suggests that margins are expanding, likely due to pricing actions and favorable product mix.
The balance sheet shows a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.867, which is manageable for a consumer staples company, and a current ratio of 0.592, indicating potential liquidity tightness as current liabilities exceed current assets. Free cash flow for the trailing twelve months is $3.085 billion, providing ample coverage for dividends, which have a payout ratio of 101.47%—a red flag suggesting dividends are not fully covered by earnings. Return on equity is 9.49%, which is moderate, and the company's cash flow from operations in Q2 2026 was $855 million, down from $1.092 billion in Q1 2026, highlighting some volatility in cash generation. Overall, Mondelez generates sufficient cash to fund operations and dividends, but the high payout ratio and low current ratio warrant monitoring.
Quarterly Revenue
$9.4B
2026-06
Revenue YoY Growth
+4.1%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
42.6%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$3.1B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is MDLZ Overvalued?
Since Mondelez reported positive net income of $1.548 billion in Q2 2026, the PE ratio is the primary valuation metric. The trailing PE stands at 28.48x, while the forward PE is 17.30x, implying that the market expects significant earnings growth, likely driven by margin expansion and revenue acceleration. This large gap between trailing and forward multiples suggests that analysts anticipate a substantial increase in profitability, possibly from cost efficiencies and a rebound in consumer demand.
Compared to the industry average, Mondelez's valuation appears to be at a premium. The trailing PE of 28.48x is higher than the food confectioners industry average, which typically ranges between 20x and 25x, indicating a premium of approximately 14-42%. The price-to-sales ratio of 1.81x is also above the sector norm, reflecting the company's strong brand portfolio and stable cash flows. However, the forward PE of 17.30x suggests that the premium may narrow as earnings grow, potentially making the stock more attractive on a forward basis.
Historically, Mondelez's PE ratio has fluctuated between 11.4x and 54.7x over the past few years, with the current trailing PE of 28.48x falling in the upper-middle range. The price-to-book ratio of 2.70x is below the historical average of around 3.0x, indicating that the stock is not excessively valued relative to its book value. The current valuation reflects a balance between the company's defensive qualities and the market's growth expectations, but the high payout ratio and low current ratio may cap further multiple expansion.
PE
28.5x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range 11x~39x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
19.3x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Mondelez faces financial risks stemming from its high payout ratio of 101.47%, which indicates that dividends are not fully covered by earnings. This is compounded by a current ratio of 0.592, meaning current liabilities exceed current assets, potentially straining liquidity. Additionally, the company's debt-to-equity ratio of 0.867 is manageable but not insignificant, and free cash flow of $3.085 billion provides some cushion but may be insufficient if earnings decline. The volatility in gross margins, which ranged from 27.81% to 42.61% in recent quarters, also poses a risk to profitability. Operational risks include dependence on key brands like Oreo and Cadbury, which together account for over 79% of revenue, making the company vulnerable to shifts in consumer preferences or competitive pressures. Furthermore, exposure to European markets (40% of revenue) exposes Mondelez to energy cost pressures and currency fluctuations, as highlighted by recent news of Europe's energy crisis.
Market and competitive risks include valuation compression if the company fails to meet growth expectations. The trailing PE of 28.48x is at a premium to the industry average of 20-25x, leaving room for multiple contraction. The stock's low beta of 0.402 reduces market correlation but also limits upside during rallies, as evidenced by its 20.82% underperformance versus the S&P 500 over the past year. Competitive threats from private label brands and other snack manufacturers could erode market share, especially in developed markets. Regulatory risks, such as potential sugar taxes or labeling requirements, could also impact demand. Additionally, sector rotation away from consumer staples amid rising interest rates could pressure the stock, as investors may favor higher-growth sectors.
The worst-case scenario for MDLZ would involve a combination of margin compression, dividend cut, and revenue decline, leading to a sharp sell-off. If the company fails to cover its dividend and liquidity tightens, the stock could drop to its 52-week low of $51.20, representing a 12.0% decline from the current price of $58.19. In a more severe scenario, if analyst bear-case target of $55.00 is breached and macroeconomic headwinds intensify, the stock could fall further to test historical support levels. The maximum drawdown over the past period was -20%, indicating that a 20% decline from recent highs is plausible. From the current price, a 20% drop would bring the stock to approximately $46.55, below the 52-week low, resulting in a loss of about 20% for investors.
FAQ
The key risks include financial risks such as a payout ratio of 101.47% and a current ratio of 0.592, which could lead to a dividend cut or liquidity issues. Competitive risks involve private label brands eroding market share, especially in developed markets. Macro risks include European energy cost pressures (40% of revenue from Europe) and currency fluctuations, as highlighted by recent news of Europe's energy crisis. Company-specific risks include margin volatility, with gross margin ranging from 27.81% to 42.61% in recent quarters. These risks are ranked from high (dividend sustainability) to moderate (competitive pressures).
The 12-month forecast for MDLZ includes a bull case (25% probability) targeting $69.23-$77.00, a base case (55% probability) targeting $62.00-$69.23, and a bear case (20% probability) targeting $51.20-$55.00. The base case is most likely, assuming revenue growth of 3-4% and stable margins, leading to a price near the analyst average target of $69.23. The bull case requires accelerated growth and margin expansion, while the bear case involves a dividend cut or macroeconomic deterioration. The current price of $58.19 is below all targets, indicating potential upside if the base case materializes.
MDLZ appears fairly valued with a slight premium on trailing earnings but a discount on forward earnings. The trailing PE of 28.48x is above the industry average of 20-25x, but the forward PE of 17.30x is below it, suggesting expected earnings growth. The price-to-sales ratio of 1.81x is above the sector norm, while the price-to-book ratio of 2.70x is below the historical average of 3.0x. The market is pricing in moderate growth and margin expansion, but the high payout ratio may limit multiple expansion. Compared to peers, MDLZ is not cheap on trailing metrics but offers value on forward estimates.
MDLZ is a good buy for income-focused investors seeking a defensive stock with a 3.57% dividend yield and low volatility (beta 0.402). The stock trades at $58.19, with an average analyst target of $69.23, implying 18.97% upside. However, the high payout ratio of 101.47% and low current ratio of 0.592 present risks. It is suitable for long-term investors who can tolerate modest growth, but short-term traders may find limited momentum given the 6.82% one-month decline. Overall, it is a Hold with a positive bias for income portfolios.
MDLZ is more suitable for long-term investment, given its defensive characteristics, low beta of 0.402, and reliable dividend yield of 3.57%. The stock's modest growth (4.13% revenue growth) and high payout ratio make it less attractive for short-term trading, as evidenced by the 6.82% one-month decline and negative relative strength. Long-term investors can benefit from dividend compounding and potential margin recovery. A minimum holding period of 2-3 years is recommended to ride out volatility and capture the anticipated earnings growth implied by the forward PE of 17.30x. Short-term traders may find better opportunities in higher-beta stocks.

