MP

MP Materials

$63.73

-2.84%
May 13, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
MP Materials Corp. is the leading producer of rare earth materials in the Western Hemisphere, owning and operating the Mountain Pass Rare Earth Mine and Processing Facility, the only integrated rare earth mining and processing site of scale in North America. The company is a strategic player in the industrial materials sector, distinct as a domestic champion for critical minerals essential for electric vehicles, defense systems, and renewable energy technologies. The current investor narrative is intensely focused on the company's transformation from a raw materials supplier to a fully integrated magnet manufacturer, a pivot underscored by its development of a rare earth metal, alloy, and magnet facility in Fort Worth, Texas, and fueled by recent geopolitical tensions and government initiatives to secure supply chains away from China.

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MP 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $63.73
Average Target $63.73
High Target $73.28949999999999
Low Target $54.1705

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on MP Materials's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $82.85 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$82.85

5 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

5

covering this stock

Price Range

$51 - $83

Analyst target range

Buy
1 (20%)
Hold
2 (40%)
Sell
2 (40%)

Analyst coverage is limited, with only 4 analysts providing estimates, indicating this is a specialized stock with less broad institutional following, which can contribute to higher volatility. The consensus sentiment appears bullish based on recent institutional rating actions, which include several upgrades to 'Buy' or 'Overweight' from firms like Morgan Stanley, BMO Capital, JP Morgan, and Deutsche Bank in late 2025, though a specific consensus recommendation and average target price are not available in the provided data. The range of analyst estimates shows high uncertainty, with revenue estimates for the period averaging $1.74 billion but spanning a wide band from $1.41 billion to $2.07 billion; the high estimates likely assume successful ramp-up of the magnet facility and strong rare earth pricing, while the low estimates may factor in execution delays or margin pressure, with the wide spread itself signaling low conviction and high operational risk.

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MP Technical Analysis

The stock is in a volatile but pronounced long-term uptrend, evidenced by a staggering 173.75% one-year price change, significantly outperforming the SPY's 29.04% gain. As of the latest close at $66.63, the price is trading at approximately 48% of its 52-week range ($18.64 to $100.251), indicating it has retreated substantially from its highs but remains well above its lows, suggesting a consolidation phase after a massive rally. Recent momentum shows a sharp recovery, with a 37.64% surge over the past month, which strongly diverges from the more modest 13.37% gain over three months and a tepid 5.61% gain over six months; this powerful one-month rebound signals a potential resumption of the primary uptrend after a significant correction earlier in the year. Key technical support is anchored at the 52-week low of $18.64, while immediate resistance is at the 52-week high of $100.251; a sustained breakout above recent highs near $70 would signal renewed bullish momentum, while a breakdown below the $45-$50 area could indicate a deeper correction. The stock's beta of 1.679 confirms it is approximately 68% more volatile than the broader market, a critical factor for risk management given its exposure to commodity prices and geopolitical sentiment.

Beta

1.91

1.91x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-53.8%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$19-$100

Price range past year

Annual Return

+206.8%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodMP ReturnS&P 500
1m+12.2%+8.2%
3m+11.2%+9.0%
6m+8.7%+10.5%
1y+206.8%+26.5%
ytd+15.9%+8.9%

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MP Fundamental Analysis

Revenue growth is highly volatile but showed a dramatic sequential improvement in the most recent quarter (Q4 2025), with revenue of $103.7 million representing a 70.04% year-over-year surge from the prior-year quarter, a stark reversal from the negative revenue trends and gross margin compression seen in preceding quarters of 2025. Profitability remains inconsistent, with the company reporting net income of $9.43 million and a gross margin of 32.83% in Q4 2025, a significant recovery from the net losses and deeply negative gross margins in Q2 and Q3 of 2025; however, trailing twelve-month metrics like a net margin of -31.18% and an operating margin of -44.57% highlight the profound profitability challenges over the full period. The balance sheet shows a strong liquidity position with a current ratio of 7.24 and a manageable debt-to-equity ratio of 0.44, but cash flow generation is a major concern, with free cash flow over the trailing twelve months deeply negative at -$328.13 million and an ROE of -3.59%, indicating the company is burning substantial cash to fund its capital-intensive growth and vertical integration strategy, relying on its cash balance and potentially external financing.

Quarterly Revenue

$103701000.0B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+0.70%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.32%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$-328130000.0B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Other Revenue

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Valuation Analysis: Is MP Overvalued?

Given the company's inconsistent profitability, with trailing net income negative on a TTM basis, the primary valuation metric selected is the Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio. The stock trades at a trailing PS ratio of 31.20x and an Enterprise Value-to-Sales (EV/Sales) of 41.21x, reflecting a premium valuation that prices in significant future growth from its integrated magnet strategy. Compared to industry averages, specific peer multiples are not provided in the data, but such elevated sales multiples typically indicate the market is valuing MP Materials as a high-growth, strategic asset rather than a conventional mining company, with the premium justified only by successful execution of its downstream expansion. Historically, the current PS ratio of 31.20x is below its own peak levels seen in recent quarters (e.g., 86.55x at the end of Q4 2025) but remains well above the lower end of its historical range, suggesting the stock is no longer at peak optimism but still carries high expectations that must be met with future financial performance.

PE

-100.1x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Low-End

5-Year PE Range -198x~238x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

1897.8x

Enterprise Value Multiple