United States Antimony Corporation
UAMY
$10.19
+10.04%
United States Antimony Corporation is a fully integrated mining, transportation, milling, smelting, and selling company operating in the Industrial Materials sector, with a primary focus on antimony and zeolite products. The company is a niche player in the domestic strategic materials market, being one of the few U.S.-based producers of antimony, a critical mineral for defense and industrial applications. The current investor narrative is driven by its strategic position as a domestic supplier of critical minerals, with attention focused on its volatile financial performance, recent capital raises to fund operations, and the market's assessment of its path to sustainable profitability amid fluctuating commodity prices.…
UAMY
United States Antimony Corporation
$10.19
Investment Opinion: Should I buy UAMY Today?
Rating: Hold. The core thesis is that UAMY is a high-risk, speculative story stock where the compelling strategic narrative is currently overwhelmed by severe operational and financial shortcomings, making it unsuitable for most investors until evidence of a sustainable turnaround emerges.
Supporting evidence for this Hold rating includes: 1) A prohibitively high valuation with a PS ratio of 15.81, far above industry norms for a company with negative margins. 2) Deeply negative profitability metrics, including a TTM operating margin of -22.61% and gross margin of -4.35%. 3) Alarming cash burn, with negative free cash flow of -$37.5 million TTM. 4) Extreme volatility in both revenue (89.63% YoY growth in Q4 but lumpy sequentially) and earnings (swinging from profit to large losses quarter-to-quarter). The sole analyst's $412 million revenue estimate provides a potential bull case, but it is a single data point against a backdrop of consistent operational underperformance.
The two biggest risks that could invalidate a neutral stance are persistent negative gross margins and an inability to stem cash burn, leading to catastrophic dilution. This Hold rating would upgrade to a Buy only if the company demonstrates consecutive quarters of positive gross margin and a credible path to operating profitability, which would de-risk the growth story. It would downgrade to a Sell if revenue growth decelerates sharply or if quarterly cash burn exceeds -$10 million without a clear funding plan. Based on current data, the stock is significantly overvalued relative to its financial fundamentals, trading on hope rather than demonstrated execution.
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UAMY 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is bearish due to the overwhelming evidence of operational failure against a backdrop of speculative valuation. The company's core business of selling antimony is currently unprofitable at the gross margin level, a critical red flag. The market is valuing UAMY as if it will achieve a 30x increase in revenue to $412 million, but the company has not demonstrated an ability to run its existing scale profitably. The path of least resistance is downward, as the stock is vulnerable to multiple compression if growth disappoints or dilution accelerates. Confidence is medium (not high) because the strategic narrative provides a floor of speculative interest that could lead to unpredictable rallies. The stance would upgrade to neutral only upon seeing two consecutive quarters of positive gross margin and a reduction in quarterly cash burn to under -$5M.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on United States Antimony Corporation's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $13.25 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$13.25
1 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
1
covering this stock
Price Range
$8 - $13
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage for UAMY is minimal, with only one analyst providing estimates, indicating limited institutional interest and higher potential for price discovery inefficiency and volatility. The sole analyst projects significant growth, with an estimated EPS of $0.43 and revenue of $412 million for the coming period, but no consensus price target is available in the provided data to calculate implied upside or downside. The target price range and consensus sentiment cannot be determined from the available dataset; however, the institutional ratings history shows a pattern of reiterated 'Buy' ratings from a small set of firms like HC Wainwright and B. Riley throughout 2025 and early 2026. The lack of a broad analyst consensus and price targets underscores the stock's status as a thinly-covered micro-cap, where investment theses are highly speculative and driven by a view on commodity prices and execution on operational turnaround rather than broad Wall Street analysis.
Bulls vs Bears: UAMY Investment Factors
The bull and bear cases for UAMY present a stark dichotomy between a compelling strategic narrative and harsh financial reality. The bull thesis is anchored in its unique position as a domestic supplier of a critical mineral and the potential for explosive revenue growth to $412 million, which would validate its premium valuation. The bear thesis is grounded in concrete, severe financial distress: the company is burning cash, selling products at a loss, and relying on dilutive equity raises to survive. Currently, the bear side has stronger evidence, as the financial data (negative margins, cash burn) is current and factual, while the bull case relies entirely on future execution of an ambitious analyst projection. The single most important tension is whether UAMY can achieve the projected $412 million in revenue while transitioning to sustainable profitability, or if its current operational inefficiencies and cash burn will lead to further dilution and a collapse of the growth premium.
Bullish
- Strategic Domestic Supplier of Critical Mineral: UAMY is one of the few U.S.-based producers of antimony, a critical mineral for defense and industrial applications. This strategic position provides a unique value proposition and potential for government support, which is not reflected in traditional financial metrics but is a key driver of the investment narrative.
- Explosive Year-Over-Year Revenue Growth: Q4 2025 revenue surged 89.63% year-over-year to $13.03 million, indicating a significant ramp in the core antimony business. This growth, while volatile, demonstrates the company's ability to scale operations when market conditions are favorable.
- Analyst Projects Transformative Revenue Scale-Up: The sole analyst covering UAMY estimates revenue of $412 million for the coming period. Achieving this would dramatically compress the current elevated Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio of 15.81, implying the market is pricing in a massive operational turnaround and growth story.
- Strong Balance Sheet with Minimal Debt: The company has a negligible debt-to-equity ratio of 0.0013 and a robust current ratio of 5.38, indicating strong short-term liquidity and a low risk of financial distress from leverage. This provides a cushion as it funds operations through equity issuance.
Bearish
- Severe and Persistent Profitability Issues: The company is deeply unprofitable, with a TTM net margin of -11.05% and a gross margin of -4.35%. Most alarmingly, Q4 2025 saw a gross margin of -12.47%, meaning it sold products below cost, indicating severe operational inefficiency or pricing pressure.
- Extremely High Valuation Despite Losses: With a trailing PS ratio of 15.81 and an EV/Sales of 31.27, UAMY trades at a massive premium to typical industrial materials companies. This valuation is entirely dependent on future growth projections, as current profitability metrics (negative PE, negative EBITDA) cannot justify it.
- Significant Cash Burn and Equity Dilution: The company reported negative free cash flow (TTM) of -$37.5 million and negative operating cash flow of -$3.47 million in Q4 2025. It is funding this burn through equity issuance ($67.14 million in Q4), which continuously dilutes existing shareholders.
- Extreme Revenue and Earnings Volatility: Revenue and earnings swing wildly quarter-to-quarter (e.g., net income from +$546,524 in Q1 to -$4.78 million in Q3). This lumpiness, typical of project-based mining, makes the business unpredictable and undermines confidence in forward projections.
UAMY Technical Analysis
The stock is in a volatile but sustained uptrend over the past year, evidenced by a 228.0% one-year price change. As of the latest close at $8.20, the stock is trading approximately 41.6% above its 52-week low of $1.94 but 58.4% below its 52-week high of $19.71, positioning it in the lower-middle of its annual range and suggesting a significant retreat from peak momentum. Recent momentum has turned sharply negative, with the stock down 18.57% over the past month, which starkly contrasts with its positive 10.96% three-month return, indicating a severe short-term correction and potential trend exhaustion following the explosive yearly gains. Key technical support is the 52-week low area near $1.94, while resistance is the 52-week high near $19.71; a breakdown below recent lows near $7.44 could signal a deeper correction, while reclaiming the $10+ level is needed to restore bullish momentum. The stock's beta of 0.437 indicates it has been significantly less volatile than the broader market (SPY) over the measured period, which is unusual for a micro-cap materials stock and may reflect its low liquidity and trading characteristics.
Beta
0.44
0.44x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-74.3%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$2-$20
Price range past year
Annual Return
+302.8%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | UAMY Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -16.1% | +5.4% |
| 3m | +5.3% | +10.9% |
| 6m | +66.5% | +11.0% |
| 1y | +302.8% | +28.1% |
| ytd | +71.8% | +11.4% |
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UAMY Fundamental Analysis
Revenue growth is highly volatile but showed a significant year-over-year surge in the latest quarter, with Q4 2025 revenue of $13.03 million representing an 89.63% increase from the prior year's quarter. However, examining sequential quarters reveals instability: revenue jumped from $8.70 million in Q3 to $13.03 million in Q4, but this followed a decline from $10.53 million in Q2, indicating lumpy, non-linear growth typical of a project-based mining company. The Antimony segment, with $17.71 million in revenue, is the clear primary driver, vastly overshadowing the Zeolite ($1.80 million) and Precious Metals ($0.56 million) segments. The company is not consistently profitable, posting a net loss of $286,905 in Q4 2025, with a deeply negative gross margin of -12.47% for that quarter, indicating it sold products below cost. Profitability has been erratic, swinging from a net income of $546,524 in Q1 2025 to a loss of $4.78 million in Q3, and the trailing twelve-month net margin is -11.05%, showing an overall unprofitable operation. The negative operating margin of -22.61% and gross margin of -4.35% (TTM) are far below healthy industry standards, pointing to severe operational inefficiencies and cost pressures. The balance sheet shows minimal debt, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.0013, but financial health is challenged by significant cash burn, as evidenced by a negative free cash flow (TTM) of -$37.50 million and negative operating cash flow of -$3.47 million in the latest quarter. The current ratio of 5.38 indicates strong short-term liquidity, but the negative ROE of -3.08% and ROA of -11.17% reveal poor returns on capital, and the company has been funding operations through equity issuance, as seen in the $67.14 million from common stock issued in Q4.
Quarterly Revenue
$13030629.0B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+0.89%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
-0.12%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$-37499477.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is UAMY Overvalued?
Given the company's negative net income and EBITDA, the primary valuation metric selected is the Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio. The trailing PS ratio is 15.81, while the Enterprise Value-to-Sales (EV/Sales) is 31.27, indicating the market is valuing the company's revenue stream at a significant premium when accounting for its cash position and minimal debt. The forward-looking analyst revenue estimate of $412 million for the next period, if achieved, would dramatically compress these sales multiples, implying the market is pricing in transformative growth. Compared to typical industrial materials companies, a PS ratio of 15.8 is exceptionally high, suggesting a substantial premium that is not justified by current profitability metrics but may be attributed to its strategic asset value and growth expectations. Historically, the stock's own PS ratio has been extremely volatile, ranging from single digits to over 87 in recent quarters; the current 15.81 is below the recent peak of 47.63 seen at the end of Q4 2025 but remains elevated compared to its multi-year history, indicating that while some optimism has cooled, the valuation still embeds significant growth expectations relative to its own erratic track record.
PE
-143.0x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range -541x~356x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
-77.3x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks are severe and center on profitability and cash flow. The company's gross margin turned deeply negative (-12.47%) in Q4 2025, indicating it cannot currently produce antimony at a cost below its selling price—a fundamental flaw for any business. This is compounded by a TTM net margin of -11.05% and negative free cash flow of -$37.5 million. With minimal debt, the primary financial risk is not insolvency but relentless equity dilution; the $67.14 million raised from stock issuance in Q4 is a direct response to this cash burn, eroding per-share value for existing holders. Revenue is also highly concentrated in the volatile antimony segment ($17.71M TTM vs. $1.80M for zeolite), exposing the company to commodity price swings.
Market & Competitive Risks are dominated by valuation compression. Trading at a PS ratio of 15.81 and EV/Sales of 31.27, UAMY carries a massive premium that is completely unjustified by its current financial performance. Any failure to meet the lofty $412 million revenue estimate would likely trigger a severe multiple contraction. As a micro-cap stock with only one analyst coverage, it is also prone to high volatility and liquidity risk, despite its low beta of 0.437. Competitive risks are inherent as a small player in a global commodity market, and its strategic domestic supplier status, while a narrative positive, does not guarantee pricing power or consistent profitability.
Worst-Case Scenario involves a failure to achieve projected growth while cash burn continues. The specific chain of events would be: 1) Q3 2026 earnings miss the analyst's revenue estimate, 2) management guides down future expectations, 3) the growth narrative collapses, leading to a rapid derating of the sales multiple from 15.8x toward a more typical distressed materials multiple of 1-2x, and 4) continued equity raises at lower prices cause severe dilution. The realistic downside is significant; the stock could retest its 52-week low of $1.94, representing a potential loss of approximately -76% from the current price of $8.20. The historical max drawdown of -74.3% supports the magnitude of this risk.
FAQ
The key risks are, in order of severity: 1) Operational Risk: The company cannot currently produce profitably, with a Q4 2025 gross margin of -12.47%. 2) Financial Risk: Persistent cash burn (-$37.5M TTM FCF) forces continuous, dilutive equity financing. 3) Valuation Risk: The sky-high PS ratio of 15.81 is vulnerable to collapse if growth targets are missed. 4) Market Risk: As a thinly-traded micro-cap with only one analyst, the stock is prone to high volatility and liquidity issues. These risks are interconnected and present a substantial threat to capital.
The 12-month forecast for UAMY is highly uncertain with a wide range of outcomes. The base case (50% probability) sees the stock trading between $5 and $9 as volatile execution continues but transformative growth fails to materialize. The bear case (30% probability) could see a collapse to the $1.94 - $4.00 range if profitability worsens and dilution accelerates. The bull case (20% probability), reliant on hitting the $412M revenue target, could drive the stock toward $19.71 and higher. The most likely scenario is the base case, where the stock remains a speculative, range-bound trader's stock rather than a sustained growth story.
UAMY is significantly overvalued based on its current financial performance. With a trailing Price-to-Sales ratio of 15.81 and an Enterprise Value-to-Sales of 31.27, it trades at a massive premium to typical industrial materials companies. This valuation is only justified if the company achieves the analyst's projected $412 million in revenue, which would represent a more than 30-fold increase from recent quarterly run-rates. Given its negative profitability (-11.05% net margin) and cash burn, the current price implies unrealistic growth expectations, making the stock overvalued on a fundamental basis.
UAMY is not a good stock to buy for the vast majority of investors. It is a speculative, high-risk investment with severe operational challenges, including negative gross margins and significant cash burn. While the strategic domestic supplier narrative is compelling, the current financials do not support the stock's premium valuation (PS ratio of 15.81). It could only be considered a 'good buy' by extremely risk-tolerant speculators who have high conviction in the lone analyst's $412 million revenue projection and are prepared to endure further equity dilution. For most, it is a clear 'avoid' or 'hold at best' until profitability is demonstrated.
UAMY is unsuitable for traditional long-term investment due to its unproven business model, lack of profitability, and high risk of permanent capital impairment from dilution. Its extreme volatility and narrative-driven price action make it a candidate only for short-term, tactical trading by sophisticated investors who can actively manage risk. Given its cash burn, the company's viability may be questioned within a 12-18 month horizon without a major turnaround. There is no dividend, and earnings visibility is poor. A suggested minimum holding period does not apply; any position should be actively monitored with tight stop-losses, as this is a speculative trading vehicle, not a buy-and-hold investment.