United States Antimony Corporation
UAMY
$10.57
+1.44%
United States Antimony Corporation (UAMY) is a fully integrated mining, transportation, milling, smelting, and selling company operating in the Industrial Materials sector. It is a niche player focused on the production and sale of antimony, a critical industrial metal, along with zeolite products and minor precious metals. The current investor narrative is driven by the company's volatile financial performance and its positioning as a domestic supplier of a strategic mineral, with recent attention likely focused on its significant year-over-year revenue growth juxtaposed against persistent operational losses and negative cash flow, as evidenced by its latest quarterly results.…
UAMY
United States Antimony Corporation
$10.57
Investment Opinion: Should I buy UAMY Today?
Rating: Sell. The core thesis is that UAMY is a speculative story stock trading at an exorbitant valuation multiple completely unjustified by its current financials of persistent losses, negative cash flow, and extreme operational volatility, making the risk/reward profile highly unfavorable.
The supporting evidence is clear: a trailing PS of 15.81x is 5-15x higher than industrial materials peers, the TTM net margin is -11.05%, free cash flow is -$37.5M, and the stock is in a pronounced technical downtrend (-31.53% over six months). While revenue grew 89.6% YoY, it sequentially declined from Q3, and the path to the analyst's $412M target—which would justify a lower forward PS—is fraught with execution risk.
The thesis would be invalidated if UAMY demonstrates consecutive quarters of positive gross margins, a clear path to operating cash flow breakeven, and revenue consistently tracking toward the $412M target. This Sell rating would downgrade to Strong Sell if cash burn accelerates or equity financing dries up. Conversely, it would upgrade to Hold only upon evidence of sustained operational turnaround and valuation compression toward sector norms. Currently, the stock is severely overvalued relative to its present fundamentals and peer group.
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UAMY 12-Month Price Forecast
The investment case for UAMY is a high-risk bet on a dramatic operational turnaround and hyper-growth that is not yet evident in its financials. The current valuation prices in perfection, while the fundamentals show distress. The bear case has a high probability (40%) given the cash burn and valuation gap. The stance is bearish due to the poor risk/reward, where the downside to the 52-week low (-77%) far outweighs the upside to the high (+136%) in the near term. Confidence is medium, not high, because the strategic narrative could attract speculative bids. The stance would upgrade to neutral only on clear, multi-quarter evidence of margin improvement and decelerating cash burn.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on United States Antimony Corporation's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $13.74 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$13.74
1 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
1
covering this stock
Price Range
$8 - $14
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage is extremely limited, with only one analyst providing estimates, indicating this is a thinly followed micro-cap stock where institutional interest is minimal, which can lead to higher volatility and less efficient price discovery. The single analyst provides an estimated EPS of $0.44 and revenue of $412 million, but no consensus price target or recommendation distribution is available in the data, preventing a calculation of implied upside or downside. The available institutional ratings show a consistent pattern, with HC Wainwright & Co. and B. Riley Securities maintaining 'Buy' ratings across multiple dates from March 2025 through March 2026, suggesting a bullish long-term view from the few firms that cover it, likely based on the strategic nature of its antimony assets and projected growth. Without a published target price range, the strength of the signal from these 'Buy' ratings is difficult to quantify, and the lack of a broader consensus underscores the high uncertainty and speculative nature of the investment thesis.
Bulls vs Bears: UAMY Investment Factors
The bear case currently holds stronger evidence, grounded in concrete financial distress (negative margins, cash burn) and a valuation that appears unsustainable without immediate and flawless execution of projected hyper-growth. The most critical tension in the investment debate is between the company's strategic, high-growth narrative and its current operational and financial reality. The stock's fate hinges on whether UAMY can bridge the chasm between its projected $412M revenue (and implied profitability) and its present state of losses and cash consumption before investor patience or funding runs out.
Bullish
- Explosive Revenue Growth Trajectory: Q4 2025 revenue grew 89.6% YoY to $13.03M, and the single analyst projects full-year revenue to surge to $412M, implying massive forward growth. This growth narrative is central to the investment thesis, positioning UAMY as a domestic supplier of a critical mineral.
- Strong Balance Sheet with Minimal Debt: The company has a negligible debt-to-equity ratio of 0.0013 and a robust current ratio of 5.38, indicating ample liquidity and no financial distress risk from leverage. This provides a stable foundation to fund its growth plans without creditor pressure.
- Strategic Position in Critical Mineral Supply: As a domestic producer of antimony, a critical industrial metal, UAMY benefits from a strategic narrative that could attract government support and premium valuation. The Antimony segment generated $17.71M in annual revenue, showing its core focus.
- Analyst Support Despite Limited Coverage: The two covering firms (HC Wainwright & Co. and B. Riley Securities) have consistently maintained 'Buy' ratings from March 2025 through March 2026, signaling a bullish long-term view from the few who follow the stock closely.
Bearish
- Severe and Persistent Cash Burn: The company is burning cash at an alarming rate, with TTM free cash flow of -$37.5M and Q4 2025 operating cash flow of -$3.47M. This necessitates reliance on equity financing, as seen with $67.1M in common stock issued last quarter, diluting shareholders.
- Extreme Operational Instability and Losses: Profitability is non-existent, with a TTM net margin of -11.05% and an operating margin of -22.61%. The latest quarter saw a gross margin swing to -12.47% from +23.14% in Q3, highlighting severe cost volatility and an inability to sustainably profit from sales.
- Exorbitant Valuation Relative to Fundamentals: The stock trades at a trailing PS ratio of 15.81x, a massive premium to typical industrial materials peers (1x-3x PS). This valuation is completely disconnected from current negative profitability and cash flow, relying entirely on speculative future growth.
- Technical Downtrend and High Volatility: The stock is in a severe downtrend, down 31.53% over six months and 20.46% over the past month, underperforming the S&P 500 by over 20% in the last month. It trades 58% below its 52-week high of $19.71, indicating significant selling pressure and momentum loss.
UAMY Technical Analysis
The stock is in a pronounced downtrend over the short-to-medium term, with the price declining 20.46% over the past month and 31.53% over the past six months, despite a staggering 227.84% gain over the past year. Currently trading at $8.36, the price sits approximately 42% above its 52-week low of $1.94 but 58% below its 52-week high of $19.71, indicating it is in the lower-middle portion of its annual range, suggesting potential value but within a context of significant recent weakness and high volatility. Recent momentum is decisively negative, with the 1-month decline of 20.46% starkly contrasting the strong 1-year performance, signaling a powerful trend reversal or severe correction from previous highs, and this weakness is further underscored by a significant underperformance relative to the S&P 500, which gained 0.46% over the same month. Key technical support is clearly defined at the 52-week low of $1.94, while resistance lies at the 52-week high of $19.71; a breakdown below support could signal a continuation of the bearish trend, while reclaiming the $10-$12 zone would be necessary to suggest stabilization. The stock's beta of 0.101 indicates it has exhibited significantly lower volatility than the broader market over the measured period, which is unusual for a micro-cap materials stock and may reflect its low liquidity and trading activity.
Beta
0.10
0.10x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-74.3%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$2-$20
Price range past year
Annual Return
+230.3%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | UAMY Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +13.2% | +7.4% |
| 3m | +27.5% | +2.7% |
| 6m | -5.5% | +6.9% |
| 1y | +230.3% | +34.9% |
| ytd | +78.2% | +4.1% |
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UAMY Fundamental Analysis
Revenue has shown extreme volatility, with the most recent quarterly figure at $13.03 million representing an 89.6% year-over-year growth, but this follows a sharp sequential decline from the prior quarter's $10.53 million. The revenue segment data reveals the business is heavily concentrated, with the Antimony segment contributing $17.71 million (the majority of annual revenue), while Zeolite contributed $1.80 million and Precious Metals $0.56 million, indicating a high dependency on antimony market conditions. The company is not consistently profitable, posting a net loss of $286.9k in Q4 2025, which followed a larger loss of $4.78 million in Q3 2025, and gross margin was deeply negative at -12.47% in the latest quarter, swinging from a positive 23.14% in Q3, highlighting severe operational instability and cost pressures. Profitability metrics are weak, with a trailing twelve-month net margin of -11.05% and an operating margin of -22.61%, demonstrating the company's struggle to convert top-line growth into bottom-line results. The balance sheet shows a very low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.0013, indicating minimal financial leverage, and a strong current ratio of 5.38 suggests ample short-term liquidity. However, cash flow generation is a critical weakness, with trailing twelve-month free cash flow deeply negative at -$37.5 million and quarterly operating cash flow also negative at -$3.47 million in Q4 2025, meaning the company is burning cash to fund operations and capital expenditures, relying on equity issuance for financing as evidenced by the $67.1 million in common stock issued in the latest quarter.
Quarterly Revenue
$13030629.0B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+0.89%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
-0.12%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$-37499477.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is UAMY Overvalued?
Given the company's negative net income, we lead with the Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio for valuation. The trailing PS ratio is extremely high at 15.81x, and while a forward PS is not provided, analyst estimates imply a forward PS based on estimated revenue of $412 million, which would be substantially lower, highlighting the market's expectation for massive revenue growth. The stock trades at a significant premium to typical industrial materials companies, which often have PS ratios in the 1x-3x range, indicating the market is pricing in either explosive future growth or a scarcity premium as a domestic antimony producer. Historically, the stock's own PS ratio has fluctuated wildly, from a low near 8.25x in early 2024 to a high of 89.5x in early 2021; the current 15.81x sits above the lower end of this range but well below the extreme highs, suggesting expectations have moderated but remain elevated relative to current financial performance.
PE
-143.0x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range -541x~356x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
-77.3x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks are severe. The company's negative TTM free cash flow of -$37.5M and quarterly operating cash burn demonstrate it cannot fund operations internally. Gross margin volatility, swinging from +23.14% to -12.47% between consecutive quarters, reveals extreme operational instability and an inability to control costs. With a TTM net margin of -11.05%, the business model is not currently profitable, making it entirely dependent on continued external equity financing, which leads to shareholder dilution.
Market & Competitive Risks center on valuation compression. Trading at a PS ratio of 15.81x versus a sector norm of 1x-3x, UAMY carries a massive growth premium. Any failure to meet the analyst's projected $412M revenue target or a delay in achieving profitability could trigger a severe multiple contraction. The stock's low beta of 0.101 is misleading; as a micro-cap with limited analyst coverage and high short interest (short ratio 2.31), it is prone to idiosyncratic volatility and liquidity crunches, not low market correlation.
Worst-Case Scenario involves a complete failure to achieve projected growth, leading to a liquidity crisis. If antimony prices fall, operational losses widen, and equity markets become inhospitable, the company could struggle to raise capital. This could force asset sales or severe dilution at depressed prices. The realistic downside is significant, with a path to the 52-week low of $1.94, representing a potential loss of approximately -77% from the current price of $8.36. The historical max drawdown of -74.3% underscores this volatility.
FAQ
The key risks are, in order of severity: 1) Financial Risk: The company is burning cash at a rate of -$37.5M TTM, requiring continuous dilutive equity financing to survive. 2) Operational Risk: Extreme margin volatility, with gross margin swinging from +23.14% to -12.47% between quarters, indicates an unstable, unprofitable business model. 3) Valuation Risk: The 15.81x PS ratio is unsustainable if growth stalls, posing a high risk of multiple compression. 4) Commodity & Concentration Risk: Revenue is heavily dependent on antimony prices and production, making the company vulnerable to a downturn in a single commodity market.
The 12-month forecast is bifurcated with a bearish skew. The base case (40% probability) sees the stock trading between $6 and $10 as it struggles with growth and profitability, leading to multiple compression. The bear case (40% probability) projects a decline to between $1.94 and $5 if operational issues persist and cash burn leads to a crisis of confidence. The bull case (20% probability) envisions a rally to $15-$19.71 if the company hits growth targets and margins turn positive. The most likely scenario is the base-to-bear case, as the current fundamentals do not support the bullish narrative required for a higher valuation.
UAMY is severely overvalued based on its current financial performance. Its trailing Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio of 15.81x is 5 to 15 times higher than the typical 1x-3x range for industrial materials companies. This premium valuation implies the market is pricing in explosive future growth to $412M in revenue and a rapid transition to profitability, neither of which are currently present given its -11.05% net margin. Compared to its own history, the PS of 15.81x is above its recent low near 8.25x, suggesting expectations remain elevated. The stock is fairly valued only if one believes the aggressive analyst revenue projections will be met imminently.
For the vast majority of investors, UAMY is not a good stock to buy at its current price of $8.36. The risk/reward is highly unfavorable, with a realistic downside risk of -77% to its 52-week low of $1.94, while the upside depends on flawless execution of a hyper-growth plan that is not yet evidenced. The stock is only suitable for speculative investors with a high risk tolerance who are betting on the strategic antimony narrative and are willing to accept the high probability of significant loss. The severe cash burn (-$37.5M TTM FCF) and overvaluation (15.81x PS) make it a dangerous investment for most portfolios.
UAMY is unsuitable for traditional long-term investment due to its high risk of business failure or permanent capital impairment from dilution. It is also a poor candidate for short-term trading for most, as its low beta (0.101) masks extreme idiosyncratic volatility and low liquidity, which can lead to sharp, unpredictable moves. Given its stage as a pre-profitability, cash-burning company, any investment should be viewed as a multi-year speculative hold contingent on a successful operational turnaround. However, the high risks suggest that if an investor chooses to engage, they should be prepared for a multi-year horizon with the understanding that the investment could become worthless.