USA Rare Earth
USAR
$25.42
-0.51%
USA Rare Earth Inc. is a vertically integrated company focused on establishing a domestic supply chain for rare earth magnets, critical minerals, and related materials essential for energy, mobility, and national security applications. The company is positioning itself as a strategic domestic supplier and disruptor in a market historically dominated by China, aiming to build a fully integrated operation from extraction and processing to magnet manufacturing. The current investor narrative is dominated by its recent transformative $2.8 billion strategic acquisition, which is seen as accelerating its production timeline and de-risking its supply chain, though this is balanced against significant execution risk and intense competition in the race to secure Western critical mineral independence.…
USAR
USA Rare Earth
$25.42
Related headlines
USAR 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on USA Rare Earth's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $33.05 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$33.05
3 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
3
covering this stock
Price Range
$20 - $33
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage is limited, with only 3 analysts providing estimates, indicating this is a stock with limited institutional following, which can contribute to higher volatility and less efficient price discovery. The consensus sentiment appears bullish based on recent institutional ratings, which show consistent 'Buy' or 'Overweight' actions from firms like Canaccord Genuity, Cantor Fitzgerald, and Roth Capital throughout 2025 and 2026, with no downgrades noted. A specific consensus price target is not provided in the data, so the implied upside cannot be calculated. The range of analyst estimates shows high uncertainty, with revenue estimates for the upcoming period spanning from a low of $2.22 billion to a high of $4.20 billion, and EPS estimates ranging from $2.25 to $5.29. This wide dispersion signals significant disagreement or uncertainty about the company's near-term financial trajectory, likely tied to the integration risks of its major acquisition and the timing of revenue recognition from new projects. The pattern of sustained 'Buy' ratings suggests analysts are generally constructive on the long-term strategic story, but the lack of a published price target range prevents a clear assessment of the expected risk/reward profile from the analyst community.
USAR Technical Analysis
The stock is in a powerful long-term uptrend, evidenced by its staggering 172.57% one-year price appreciation, but is currently experiencing a significant pullback from its highs. With a current price of $26.33, it is trading at approximately 60% of its 52-week range ($8.00 to $43.98), indicating it has retreated substantially from its peak but remains well above its lows, suggesting a potential consolidation phase after a parabolic move. Recent momentum shows a sharp divergence, with the stock up 77.91% over the past month, strongly outperforming the SPY's 9.98% gain, yet it is only up 17.44% over the past three months, signaling that the explosive January rally has partially retraced and the stock is now attempting to regain upward momentum from a lower base. The key technical levels are clear, with major support at the 52-week low of $8.00 and formidable resistance at the 52-week high of $43.98. A sustained breakout above $43.98 would signal a resumption of the primary bull trend, while a breakdown below the recent March low near $14.23 would suggest a deeper correction is underway. The stock's beta of 1.366 indicates it is approximately 37% more volatile than the broader market, which is critical for risk management as it implies larger swings in both directions, consistent with its status as a high-growth, speculative story stock. The 1-month relative strength of 67.93 points underscores its recent outperformance, but the 3-month relative strength of 13.30 is more muted, highlighting the volatile and choppy nature of its recovery path.
Beta
2.42
2.42x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-69.2%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$8-$44
Price range past year
Annual Return
+187.2%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | USAR Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +51.4% | +8.2% |
| 3m | +33.2% | +9.0% |
| 6m | +75.4% | +10.5% |
| 1y | +187.2% | +26.5% |
| ytd | +79.6% | +8.9% |
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USAR Fundamental Analysis
The company's revenue trajectory is nascent and highly volatile, with the most recent quarterly revenue for Q4 2025 at just $1.64 million, though this followed a substantial $312.49 million quarter in Q3 2025; this erratic pattern reflects a pre-revenue/early-revenue company in the development phase, where growth is not yet consistent and is heavily influenced by non-recurring items or project milestones. The company is deeply unprofitable, with a net income of -$50.21 million in Q4 2025 and a gross margin of 11.87%, which collapsed from 81.48% in the prior quarter, indicating severe margin compression and operational inefficiencies as it scales; the net margin stands at a dire -181.11%, and the operating margin is -36.22%, underscoring that losses are substantial relative to its minuscule revenue base. The balance sheet shows a strong liquidity position with a current ratio of 10.17, and a very low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.024, suggesting minimal financial leverage risk. However, cash flow is a major concern: trailing twelve-month free cash flow is positive at $114.23 million, but the latest quarterly operating cash flow was deeply negative at -$27.90 million, and Return on Equity is severely negative at -60.40%, indicating the company is destroying shareholder value as it burns cash to fund its ambitious growth and acquisition plans, relying heavily on external financing rather than internal cash generation.
Quarterly Revenue
$1643000.0B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
N/A
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.11%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$114228000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
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Valuation Analysis: Is USAR Overvalued?
Given the company's deeply negative net income and EBITDA, the primary valuation metric selected is the Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio. The trailing PS ratio is an astronomically high 709.95x, reflecting the market's extreme growth expectations for a company with minimal current revenue. The forward valuation is not explicitly provided, but analyst estimates project average revenue of $3.24 billion, which, if achieved, would dramatically compress this multiple, highlighting the market's bet on a transformative revenue ramp-up. Peer comparison is challenging due to the lack of industry average multiples in the provided data, but the PS ratio of 709.95x is almost certainly at a massive premium to any established industrial materials company. This premium is solely justified by the narrative of capturing a multi-billion dollar addressable market in domestic rare earths and magnets, contingent on flawless execution of its vertical integration strategy and the success of its recent $2.8 billion acquisition. Historically, the stock's own valuation has been extremely volatile and often meaningless due to near-zero revenue in prior periods. The current PS ratio is an outlier compared to its own history where it was often incalculable (infinite). Trading at such an elevated sales multiple suggests the market is pricing in near-perfect execution and massive future revenue growth, leaving no room for error and making the stock highly vulnerable to any operational setbacks or delays.
PE
-3.9x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range -11845x~151x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
-2.8x
Enterprise Value Multiple

