MPWR

Monolithic Power Systems

$1498.77

-9.29%
Jun 16, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (MPWR) is a fabless analog and mixed-signal semiconductor company specializing in high-performance power management integrated circuits (ICs) for computing, automotive, industrial, communications, and consumer markets. The company is a recognized leader and technology innovator in its niche, distinguished by its proprietary BCD (Bipolar-CMOS-DMOS) process technology and a design-focused model that aims to reduce total system energy consumption. The current investor narrative is overwhelmingly centered on the company's explosive growth tied to artificial intelligence (AI), as its power management solutions are critical for high-performance computing and data center infrastructure, driving significant revenue acceleration and leading to analyst upgrades and heightened market attention.

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MPWR 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $1498.77
Average Target $1498.77
High Target $1723.5855
Low Target $1273.9545

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Monolithic Power Systems's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $1948.40 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$1948.40

3 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

3

covering this stock

Price Range

$1199 - $1948

Analyst target range

Buy
0 (0%)
Hold
1 (33%)
Sell
2 (67%)

Analyst coverage for MPWR appears limited based on the provided data, with only 3 analysts providing estimates for revenue and EPS. This suggests the stock, despite its large market cap, may have concentrated institutional interest or is covered by a select group of specialists. The consensus leans bullish, as evidenced by recent institutional ratings from firms like Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Truist, and Keybanc, which maintain 'Buy' or 'Overweight' ratings. The average revenue estimate for the period is $6.80 billion, with a range from $6.55 billion to $7.17 billion. The target price range is not explicitly provided in the data. However, the wide dispersion in revenue estimates (a $610 million spread between low and high) signals a high degree of uncertainty or variability in forward projections, which is common for companies experiencing rapid, transformative growth tied to a thematic catalyst like AI. The recent news of post-earnings upgrades indicates positive momentum in analyst sentiment. The lack of a broad consensus target price from the data input implies investors should monitor for more comprehensive coverage to gauge a clearer implied upside or downside.

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MPWR Technical Analysis

The stock is in a powerful, sustained uptrend, evidenced by a staggering 119.51% gain over the past year. As of the latest close at $1,577.32, the price is trading at approximately 92% of its 52-week high of $1,714.09, indicating it is near the upper bounds of its recent range and reflecting strong bullish momentum, though also suggesting potential for near-term overextension or consolidation. The current price is 135% above its 52-week low of $670.00, highlighting the magnitude of the advance and positioning the stock far from traditional value-support levels. Recent momentum shows significant acceleration, with a 49.85% gain over the past three months dramatically outpacing the broader market's 12.0% rise (SPY). However, the stock has experienced a short-term pullback, declining 4.43% over the past month, which diverges from the longer-term uptrend. This 1-month decline, coupled with a relative strength reading of -4.35 against the SPY, suggests a period of consolidation or profit-taking after the parabolic move, rather than a fundamental trend reversal. Key technical support is anchored at the 52-week low of $670, though more immediate support likely resides near recent pullback lows around $1,470-$1,480. Immediate resistance is at the 52-week high of $1,714.09; a decisive breakout above this level could signal a continuation of the powerful uptrend. The stock exhibits high volatility, with a beta of 1.69, meaning it is approximately 69% more volatile than the SPY, which investors must factor into position sizing and risk management given its elevated price levels.

Beta

1.69

1.69x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-22.4%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$671-$1714

Price range past year

Annual Return

+112.1%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodMPWR ReturnS&P 500
1m-3.3%+1.5%
3m+39.4%+13.4%
6m+61.2%+10.9%
1y+112.1%+24.5%
ytd+60.1%+10.0%

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MPWR Fundamental Analysis

Revenue growth is robust and accelerating, with Q4 2025 revenue of $751.2 million representing a 20.83% year-over-year increase. The multi-quarter trend shows consistent sequential growth from $637.6 million in Q1 2025 to the Q4 level, indicating strong demand momentum. Segment data reveals the business is overwhelmingly driven by DC-to-DC products, which generated $616.1 million in the latest period, while lighting control contributed a minimal $4.0 million, underscoring the core power management franchise's dominance. The company is highly profitable, with Q4 2025 net income of $170.1 million and a net margin of 22.65%. Gross margins are structurally high at 55.15% for the quarter, consistent with the company's premium analog semiconductor positioning. Operating margins are also healthy at 26.62% (based on the operating income ratio), demonstrating efficient scaling of its fabless model and the profitability of its design-centric approach. Financial health is exceptionally strong, characterized by a fortress balance sheet with minimal debt, evidenced by a debt-to-equity ratio of just 0.0068. Liquidity is ample, with a current ratio of 5.91. The company generates substantial cash, with trailing twelve-month free cash flow of $664.2 million, providing significant internal funding capacity for growth initiatives, R&D, and shareholder returns. Return on equity (ROE) of 17.44% indicates efficient use of shareholder capital.

Quarterly Revenue

$751155000.0B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+0.20%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.55%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$664189000.0B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

DC To DC Products
Lighting Control Products

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Valuation Analysis: Is MPWR Overvalued?

Given a positive net income of $170.1 million in the latest quarter, the primary valuation metric is the Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio. The trailing P/E is elevated at 70.69x, while the forward P/E is 52.30x. The significant gap between trailing and forward multiples implies the market is pricing in strong earnings growth expectations for the coming year, anticipating a rapid expansion in profitability. Compared to sector averages (data not explicitly provided in the input, but typical for high-growth semiconductors), a trailing P/E of 70.7x and a forward P/E of 52.3x likely represent a substantial premium. This premium can be partially justified by the company's superior growth profile (20.8% YoY revenue growth), high profitability (22.7% net margin), and strategic positioning in the high-demand AI power management market, though it demands flawless execution. Historically, the stock's own valuation has expanded significantly. The current trailing P/E of 70.7x is well above its level from a year prior (Q4 2024 showed a P/E of 4.93, but this was distorted by a one-time tax benefit). Looking at more normalized periods, such as Q3 2023 (P/E of 45.5x) and Q1 2025 (P/E of 51.9x), the current multiple is at the upper end of its historical range, suggesting the market is pricing in highly optimistic future prospects, leaving little room for disappointment.

PE

70.7x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

High-End

5-Year PE Range 5x~99x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

52.0x

Enterprise Value Multiple