MPWR

Monolithic Power Systems

$1376.41

+6.58%
Jul 14, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Monolithic Power Systems (MPS) is a fabless analog and mixed-signal semiconductor company specializing in highly efficient power management solutions for computing, automotive, industrial, communications, and consumer markets. The company differentiates itself through its proprietary BCD process technology and a focus on reducing total energy consumption, positioning it as a niche leader in high-performance power ICs. The current investor narrative centers on MPS's accelerating growth driven by AI infrastructure demand, with recent earnings beats and analyst upgrades highlighting its expanding role in data center power management. However, debate persists around its elevated valuation and whether the AI tailwinds can sustain the momentum amid broader semiconductor cyclicality.

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MPWR 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $1376.41
Average Target $1376.41
High Target $1582.87
Low Target $1169.95

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Monolithic Power Systems's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $1789.33 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$1789.33

3 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

3

covering this stock

Price Range

$1101 - $1789

Analyst target range

Buy
0 (0%)
Hold
1 (33%)
Sell
2 (67%)

With only 3 analysts providing estimates, coverage is limited, but the consensus leans bullish. The average EPS estimate for the current fiscal year is $46.75, with a low of $44.53 and high of $49.97. The average revenue estimate is $6.80 billion, implying 22% growth from the trailing twelve months. The limited analyst coverage suggests MPWR is a mid-cap stock with growing institutional interest, but the small sample size increases uncertainty. The implied upside to the average target cannot be calculated directly as target prices are not provided. However, recent ratings from firms like Citigroup (Buy), Wells Fargo (Overweight), and Needham (Buy) indicate positive sentiment. The spread between low and high EPS estimates ($44.53 to $49.97) is relatively narrow at 12%, suggesting reasonable conviction in near-term earnings. The high estimate likely assumes continued AI-driven revenue acceleration and margin expansion, while the low estimate may factor in potential cyclical headwinds or competitive pressures. The lack of a wide dispersion indicates analysts have a relatively consistent view of the company's trajectory.

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MPWR Technical Analysis

MPWR is in a strong long-term uptrend, with a 1-year price change of +82.69%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's +20.63%. The stock currently trades at $1,352.74, which is 78.9% of its 52-week range ($686.87 to $1,714.09), indicating it is closer to the highs but has pulled back from the peak. This positioning suggests the stock retains bullish momentum but may be consolidating after a sharp rally, as the current price is 21.1% below the 52-week high. Short-term momentum has weakened, with a 1-month change of -8.17% and a 3-month change of -0.08%, contrasting with the strong 1-year trend. This divergence could signal a temporary pullback or profit-taking after the stock surged over 40% year-to-date, rather than a trend reversal. The relative strength versus the S&P 500 has turned negative over 1-month (-12.24%) and 3-month (-11.19%), suggesting the stock is underperforming the market in the near term. The 52-week low of $686.87 provides a major support level, while the 52-week high of $1,714.09 acts as resistance. A breakout above $1,714 would signal renewed bullish momentum, while a breakdown below $1,288 (recent low) could indicate further downside. With a beta of 1.71, MPWR is 71% more volatile than the market, amplifying both upside and downside moves, which is critical for risk management.

Beta

1.71

1.71x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-24.7%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$687-$1714

Price range past year

Annual Return

+90.9%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodMPWR ReturnS&P 500
1m-12.7%+1.4%
3m+1.7%+7.4%
6m+36.3%+8.6%
1y+90.9%+20.3%
ytd+47.0%+10.3%

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MPWR Fundamental Analysis

Revenue growth has been robust and accelerating. In Q4 2025, revenue reached $751.2 million, up 20.8% year-over-year, following sequential growth from $637.6 million in Q1 2025 to $737.2 million in Q3 2025. The DC-to-DC products segment, which generated $616.1 million in the latest quarter, is the primary growth driver, likely fueled by AI and data center demand. This accelerating top-line trajectory supports the investment case for MPS as a beneficiary of secular trends in power efficiency. Profitability is strong and improving. Net income for Q4 2025 was $170.1 million, with a net margin of 22.6%, up from 20.1% in Q2 2025. Gross margin remains stable around 55.2%, while operating margin expanded to 26.6% in Q4 from 24.8% in Q2, reflecting operating leverage. The company is solidly profitable with a trailing twelve-month net income of $615.9 million, and margins are above typical semiconductor industry averages. The balance sheet is pristine with zero long-term debt and a debt-to-equity ratio of just 0.007. Free cash flow for the trailing twelve months was $664.2 million, providing ample liquidity for internal growth investments and shareholder returns. The current ratio of 5.91 indicates strong short-term liquidity, and ROE of 17.4% reflects efficient capital utilization. MPS generates sufficient cash to fund operations without external financing, reducing financial risk.

Quarterly Revenue

$751155000.0B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+20.8%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

55.1%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$664189000.0B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

DC To DC Products
Lighting Control Products

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Valuation Analysis: Is MPWR Overvalued?

Since net income is positive, the trailing P/E ratio of 70.7x is the primary valuation metric. The forward P/E of 44.6x implies a significant earnings growth expectation, as the market prices in a 37% earnings increase over the next year. This gap between trailing and forward multiples suggests investors anticipate continued strong earnings momentum, likely driven by AI-related demand. Compared to the semiconductor industry average P/E of approximately 22x, MPWR trades at a 221% premium, reflecting its superior growth and profitability. The premium is partially justified by its 20.8% revenue growth and 22.6% net margin, which are well above industry medians. However, the PEG ratio of -1.09 (negative due to negative earnings growth in the base period) indicates that the valuation is stretched relative to near-term growth expectations. Historically, MPWR's trailing P/E has ranged from 34x to 99x over the past five years. The current 70.7x is near the higher end of its historical band, suggesting the market is pricing in optimistic future growth. This level implies that any disappointment in earnings could lead to multiple compression, making the stock vulnerable to corrections if growth decelerates.

PE

70.7x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

High-End

5-Year PE Range 5x~99x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

52.0x

Enterprise Value Multiple