M/A-COM Technology Solutions
MTSI
$286.12
+4.12%
MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. designs and manufactures analog, digital, and mixed-signal semiconductor solutions for original equipment manufacturers and distributors across industrial, medical, scientific, and test and measurement markets. As a specialized player in the semiconductor industry, MACOM differentiates itself through its broad portfolio of high-performance components, including integrated circuits, multichip modules, power transistors, diodes, amplifiers, and switches. The current investor narrative centers on the company's robust growth trajectory, driven by strong demand in data center and telecommunications end markets, alongside its strategic focus on expanding into high-value applications such as 800G optical connectivity and defense. Recent quarterly results have showcased accelerating revenue growth and improving profitability, fueling optimism about MACOM's ability to capitalize on secular trends in AI and high-speed networking.…
MTSI
M/A-COM Technology Solutions
$286.12
Investment Opinion: Should I buy MTSI Today?
Based on the analysis, MTSI is rated a Buy, supported by strong revenue growth, improving profitability, and a favorable analyst consensus. The average analyst target of $395.33 implies 47% upside, and the low target of $300 still offers 11.5% upside, indicating a favorable risk-reward. The thesis is that MACOM's exposure to AI-driven data center and telecom markets will drive sustained growth, justifying its premium valuation.
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MTSI 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is bullish given MACOM's strong growth trajectory and strategic positioning in high-speed optical components. The company's revenue acceleration and margin expansion are backed by concrete data, and analyst targets suggest substantial upside. However, the high valuation and volatility warrant a medium confidence level. If the company can sustain 20%+ growth and maintain margins, the stock is likely to outperform. Key developments to watch include quarterly earnings, design win announcements, and industry trends in AI infrastructure. A downgrade to neutral would occur if growth decelerates below 15% or margins compress.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on M/A-COM Technology Solutions's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $395.33 and implied upside of +38.2% versus the current price.
Average Target
$395.33
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+38.2%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$300 - $475
Analyst target range
The target price range spans from a low of $300.00 to a high of $475.00, reflecting a wide spread of $175.00, which signals considerable uncertainty about the company's future performance. The high target of $475 assumes that MACOM will successfully capitalize on the AI-driven demand for high-speed optical components, leading to sustained revenue growth and margin expansion. The low target of $300 suggests a more conservative scenario, potentially factoring in competitive pressures or a cyclical downturn in the semiconductor industry. The wide range indicates that analysts have divergent views on the pace and magnitude of MACOM's growth, but the overall bullish tilt suggests that the risk-reward remains attractive for investors willing to tolerate volatility.
Bulls vs Bears: MTSI Investment Factors
MACOM presents a compelling growth story with accelerating revenue, expanding margins, and strong analyst support, but this is offset by a rich valuation and high volatility. The bull case is anchored on sustained AI-driven demand for high-speed optical components, which could justify the premium multiples. The bear case hinges on valuation compression if growth disappoints or macro conditions weaken. Currently, the evidence slightly favors the bulls given the robust fundamental momentum and analyst targets, but the wide target range (300-475) underscores uncertainty. The key tension is whether MACOM can maintain its 20%+ revenue growth and margin expansion to justify its 9.75x PS ratio, or if competitive pressures and cyclicality will lead to a de-rating.
Bullish
- Revenue growth accelerating: Q2 FY2026 revenue grew 22.5% YoY to $288.955M, up from 21.5% in Q1 and 15.6% in Q4 FY2025. Sequential growth from $271.6M to $289.0M indicates strong demand in data center and telecom end markets.
- Expanding gross margins: Gross margin improved to 56.9% in Q2 FY2026, up from 53.5% a year ago. This reflects favorable product mix and operational leverage, supporting profitability as revenue scales.
- Strong analyst conviction: With 15 analysts, the consensus rating is 'Buy' and the average target price of $395.33 implies 47% upside from the current $268.95. The high target of $475 suggests potential for 77% upside if AI-driven demand accelerates.
- Positive earnings trajectory: EPS turned positive in recent quarters, with Q2 FY2026 EPS of $0.62, up from $0.43 in the year-ago quarter. Forward PE of 31.7x indicates market expects continued earnings growth, supported by improving operating margins (17.6% in Q2).
Bearish
- High valuation multiples: PS ratio of 9.75x and EV/Sales of 16.84x are elevated, reflecting high growth expectations. If growth decelerates, multiple compression could significantly impact the stock price.
- Negative trailing EPS: TTM EPS is -$0.0058, distorted by a one-time charge in Q1 FY2025, but this highlights earnings volatility. The negative trailing PE of -174.5x makes valuation comparisons challenging and signals potential accounting noise.
- High beta and volatility: Beta of 1.71 indicates the stock is 71% more volatile than the market. Recent 3-month decline of -22.1% versus S&P 500's +4.4% shows significant downside risk in market downturns.
- Recent price pullback: Stock is down 35.8% from its 52-week high of $418.90, trading at $268.95. This decline may reflect profit-taking or concerns about sustainability of growth, and could continue if sentiment weakens.
MTSI Technical Analysis
MACOM's stock has exhibited a powerful long-term uptrend, with a 1-year price change of +103.92%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's +18.65% over the same period. The current price of $268.95 sits at approximately 64.2% of its 52-week range (between $121.97 low and $418.90 high), indicating that while the stock has pulled back from its peak, it remains well above its lows, reflecting a consolidation phase after a massive rally. This positioning suggests the market is digesting previous gains, with the stock still in a constructive posture relative to its historical base.
Beta
1.71
1.71x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-44.2%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$122-$419
Price range past year
Annual Return
+120.4%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | MTSI Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -3.7% | -1.4% |
| 3m | -23.7% | +3.3% |
| 6m | +31.4% | +15.1% |
| 1y | +120.4% | +17.2% |
| ytd | +63.5% | +11.8% |
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MTSI Fundamental Analysis
MACOM's revenue trajectory is robustly accelerating, with the most recent quarter (Q2 FY2026, ended April 3, 2026) reporting revenue of $288.955 million, a 22.5% year-over-year increase. This growth builds on sequential momentum, as revenue rose from $271.612 million in Q1 FY2026 and $261.170 million in Q4 FY2025, demonstrating a clear upward trend. The company's revenue growth is being driven by strong demand across its end markets, particularly in data center and telecommunications, which are benefiting from the proliferation of AI and high-speed networking. The accelerating growth trajectory underscores MACOM's successful execution of its strategic initiatives and positions the company well for continued expansion.
Quarterly Revenue
$288955000.0B
2026-04
Revenue YoY Growth
+22.5%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
56.9%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$152490000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is MTSI Overvalued?
Given that MACOM's trailing twelve-month net income is negative (EPS of -$0.0058), the most appropriate valuation metric is the price-to-sales (PS) ratio, which stands at 9.75x based on current price and trailing sales. This is a more meaningful measure than the negative trailing PE of -174.53x, which is distorted by one-time charges. The forward PE of 31.72x indicates that the market expects earnings to normalize and grow significantly, reflecting optimism about the company's future profitability. The gap between the negative trailing earnings and positive forward earnings suggests that the market is pricing in a substantial earnings recovery, driven by the company's revenue growth and margin expansion.
PE
-174.5x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 4x~129x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
247.6x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial risks include the company's negative trailing EPS, which, while distorted by a one-time charge, signals potential earnings volatility. The debt-to-equity ratio of 0.41 is manageable, but the high EV/EBITDA of 247.6x suggests the company is valued on future earnings potential, leaving little room for error. Operating margin of 13.4% (TTM) is modest for a semiconductor company, and any cost overruns or R&D inefficiencies could pressure profitability. Additionally, free cash flow of $152.5M TTM is positive but relatively low compared to the market cap, limiting the company's ability to fund large-scale investments without dilutive financing.