Nucor
NUE
$256.02
-3.61%
Nucor Corporation is a leading steel manufacturer in the United States, producing a wide range of steel products including sheet, plate, structural, and bar steel, primarily through electric arc furnace (EAF) technology using scrap steel. As the largest steel producer in the U.S. and a pioneer in mini-mill technology, Nucor distinguishes itself through its low-cost production model, diversified product portfolio, and vertical integration into raw materials. The current investor narrative centers on Nucor's strong cyclical tailwinds from robust domestic steel demand, pricing power, and potential benefits from trade policies such as Section 301 tariffs on Brazilian steel imports, which could further boost Nucor's market share and profitability.…
NUE
Nucor
$256.02
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy NUE Today?
Rating: Buy. Nucor is a high-quality cyclical steel producer benefiting from strong demand, pricing power, and trade tailwinds, with a consensus Buy rating and average target of $267.13 implying 7.9% upside.
Supporting Evidence: Revenue grew 21.28% YoY to $9.496B in Q1 2026, net income surged 376% to $743M, gross margin expanded to 15.81% from 7.73%, and free cash flow turned positive at $225M. The forward P/E of 14.24x is reasonable for the steel sector, and the debt-to-equity ratio of 0.34 is well below industry average. The analyst high target of $285 implies 15.1% upside.
Risks & Conditions: Key risks include a cyclical downturn compressing margins, a reversal of trade tariffs, and high beta amplifying market declines. This Buy would downgrade to Hold if revenue growth decelerates below 10% YoY or if the forward P/E exceeds 18x. It would upgrade to Strong Buy if the stock pulls back to $220 or below. Overall, Nucor appears fairly valued relative to its growth trajectory and industry peers.
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NUE 12-Month Price Forecast
Nucor's strong revenue growth, expanding margins, and favorable trade policy support a bullish stance. However, the stock's cyclical nature and high beta warrant caution. The base case of moderate growth and stable margins is most likely, with a 50% probability. Upside catalysts include sustained steel demand and tariff benefits, while downside risks include a recession or policy reversal. The medium confidence reflects uncertainty around the timing and magnitude of cyclical shifts.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Nucor's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $269.13 and implied upside of +5.1% versus the current price.
Average Target
$269.13
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+5.1%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$231 - $285
Analyst target range
Nucor is covered by 16 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Buy' (mean recommendation 1.53 on a 1-5 scale, where 1 is Strong Buy). The average target price is $267.13, implying approximately 7.9% upside from the current price of $247.56. The consensus leans bullish, with recent upgrades from Keybanc (to Overweight) and maintained Buy ratings from BofA, Citigroup, and JPMorgan, while UBS downgraded to Neutral. The target price range spans from a low of $224.00 to a high of $285.00. The high target of $285 assumes continued strong steel demand, pricing power, and potential benefits from trade tariffs, while the low target of $224 factors in a potential cyclical downturn or margin compression. The spread of $61 (27% of the low) indicates moderate uncertainty, but the concentration of ratings in the Buy/Overweight category suggests strong conviction among analysts. Recent institutional actions show mostly positive revisions, reinforcing the bullish sentiment.
Bulls vs Bears: NUE Investment Factors
Nucor presents a compelling cyclical growth story with strong revenue acceleration, expanding margins, and a solid balance sheet. The bull case is supported by robust steel demand, trade tariff benefits, and analyst consensus Buy rating with 7.9% upside. However, the stock's high beta, cyclical earnings sensitivity, and proximity to its 52-week high introduce significant risk. The single most important tension is whether the current earnings upcycle can sustain momentum or if a cyclical downturn will compress margins and multiples. Currently, the bull case has stronger evidence given the accelerating fundamentals and favorable trade policy, but investors must monitor steel prices and economic indicators closely.
Bullish
- Strong Revenue Acceleration: Revenue grew 21.28% YoY in Q1 2026 to $9.496B, accelerating from prior quarters. This robust top-line growth is driven by strong domestic steel demand and pricing power, supporting the cyclical upswing thesis.
- Expanding Profit Margins: Gross margin expanded to 15.81% in Q1 2026 from 7.73% a year ago, while net margin rose to 7.82% from 1.99%. This demonstrates significant operating leverage and efficient cost management.
- Low Debt and Strong Liquidity: Debt-to-equity ratio is 0.34, well below industry average, and current ratio is 2.94, indicating ample liquidity. This financial strength provides resilience during cyclical downturns.
- Analyst Consensus Buy: 16 analysts rate Nucor a Buy with a mean recommendation of 1.53 (1=Strong Buy). The average target price of $267.13 implies 7.9% upside from the current price of $247.56.
Bearish
- Cyclical Earnings Vulnerability: Nucor's earnings are highly sensitive to steel prices and economic cycles. The trailing P/E of 21.66x is elevated relative to historical troughs (2.7x in Q2 2022), suggesting potential multiple compression if demand weakens.
- High Beta Amplifies Downside: With a beta of 1.922, Nucor is nearly twice as volatile as the market. In a broad market downturn, the stock could decline significantly more than the S&P 500.
- Near 52-Week High: At $247.56, the stock is at 91.4% of its 52-week high of $270.90, limiting near-term upside and increasing the risk of a pullback. The 1-month price change of +2.93% shows decelerating momentum.
- Capital Expenditure Burden: Free cash flow in Q1 2026 was $225M, but capital expenditures were $661M, indicating high reinvestment needs. This could pressure returns if revenue growth slows.
NUE Technical Analysis
Nucor's stock is in a sustained uptrend, with a 1-year price change of +75.04%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's +16.47% over the same period. The current price of $247.56 sits at 91.4% of its 52-week range (52-week low: $131.32, high: $270.90), indicating the stock is near the upper end of its range, reflecting strong momentum but also potential overextension. This positioning suggests the market is pricing in continued positive fundamentals, though the proximity to the 52-week high warrants caution for new entries. Short-term momentum is mixed: the 1-month price change is +2.93%, while the 3-month change is +15.53%, showing deceleration from the rapid gains seen in the prior months. The 1-month relative strength vs. SPY is 2.15, indicating slight outperformance, but the divergence from the 1-year trend could signal a temporary consolidation or pullback. The RSI is not directly provided, but the price action suggests a cooling from the overbought levels seen in May-June 2026 when the stock peaked near $270. Key technical support is at the 52-week low of $131.32, while resistance is at the 52-week high of $270.90. A breakout above $270.90 would signal a resumption of the uptrend, potentially targeting new highs, while a breakdown below recent support around $220 (the June 2026 low) could indicate a deeper correction. With a beta of 1.922, Nucor is nearly twice as volatile as the market, amplifying both upside and downside risks for investors.
Beta
1.92
1.92x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-18.4%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$131-$271
Price range past year
Annual Return
+82.0%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | NUE Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +12.0% | -1.6% |
| 3m | +13.6% | +1.5% |
| 6m | +44.1% | +5.4% |
| 1y | +82.0% | +14.8% |
| ytd | +51.1% | +7.0% |
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NUE Fundamental Analysis
Nucor's revenue trajectory is strongly positive, with the most recent quarter (Q1 2026) reporting revenue of $9.496 billion, a 21.28% year-over-year increase from $7.83 billion in Q1 2025. This marks a significant acceleration from the prior quarters, where revenue grew from $7.07 billion in Q4 2024 to $7.44 billion in Q3 2024, then to $8.08 billion in Q2 2025, and $8.52 billion in Q3 2025. The growth is driven by robust demand across all segments, particularly Sheet ($2.791 billion), Bar ($1.689 billion), and Steel Products ($988 million), reflecting strong pricing and volume in the domestic steel market. The accelerating revenue growth supports the investment case for a cyclical upswing, though investors should monitor for sustainability. Profitability has improved markedly: net income in Q1 2026 was $743 million, up from $156 million in Q1 2025, a 376% increase. Gross margin expanded to 15.81% from 7.73% a year ago, while operating margin rose to 11.54% from 4.14%. The net margin of 7.82% in Q1 2026 is well above the 1.99% in Q1 2025, indicating strong operating leverage. These margins are healthy for the steel industry, which typically sees single-digit net margins, and the trend is positive. Nucor maintains a solid balance sheet with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.34, well below the industry average, and a current ratio of 2.94, indicating ample liquidity. Free cash flow (FCF) in Q1 2026 was $225 million, a significant improvement from negative FCF in prior quarters, though capital expenditures remain high at $661 million. ROE stands at 8.33%, reflecting efficient use of equity, and the company generated $886 million in operating cash flow in Q1 2026, comfortably covering its capex and dividend payments.
Quarterly Revenue
$9.5B
2026-04
Revenue YoY Growth
+21.3%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
15.8%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$532000000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is NUE Overvalued?
Since Nucor has positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is 21.66x, while the forward P/E is 14.24x, implying the market expects earnings to grow significantly over the next year. The gap between trailing and forward P/E suggests strong earnings growth expectations, consistent with the recent revenue and margin expansion. Compared to the industry average (not directly provided, but steel sector typically trades at 10-15x forward earnings), Nucor's forward P/E of 14.24x is near the upper end, reflecting a premium for its market leadership and growth. The P/S ratio of 1.16x is modest, indicating the stock is not overly expensive on a sales basis. Historically, Nucor's trailing P/E has ranged from 2.7x (in Q2 2022) to 38.5x (in Q1 2025), with the current 21.66x near the middle of this range. The current P/E is below the 24.86x seen in Q4 2025 but above the 13.35x in Q1 2026, suggesting the market is pricing in a normalization of earnings after a cyclical peak. The PEG ratio of -1.95 (negative due to negative earnings growth expectations in some periods) is not meaningful, but the forward P/E implies a reasonable valuation given the earnings growth trajectory.
PE
21.7x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range 3x~25x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
10.3x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: Nucor's earnings are highly cyclical, with net income swinging from $156M in Q1 2025 to $743M in Q1 2026. The trailing P/E of 21.66x is above the historical low of 2.7x, indicating potential overvaluation if earnings peak. Capital expenditures of $661M in Q1 2026 outpaced free cash flow of $225M, requiring continued strong cash generation to avoid leverage buildup. The debt-to-equity ratio of 0.34 is low, but any prolonged downturn could strain liquidity despite a current ratio of 2.94.
Market & Competitive Risks: With a beta of 1.922, Nucor is highly sensitive to macroeconomic shifts. A recession or decline in steel demand could lead to significant multiple compression. The forward P/E of 14.24x is near the upper end of the steel sector's typical 10-15x range, leaving limited room for error. Competitive pressures from other domestic producers like Steel Dynamics and Cleveland-Cliffs, as well as potential tariff reversals, pose risks. Recent news highlights robust steel demand, but any easing of trade protections could hurt Nucor's pricing power.
Worst-Case Scenario: A sharp economic downturn or collapse in steel prices could drive Nucor's earnings back to recessionary levels. The 52-week low of $131.32 represents a 46.9% decline from the current price of $247.56. In a severe bear case, the stock could fall to $131.32, resulting in a loss of approximately -47% for investors. This scenario would likely involve negative EBITDA, dividend cuts, and significant multiple compression.
FAQ
The primary risks are cyclical earnings volatility (net income swung from $156M to $743M in one year), high beta (1.922) amplifying market downturns, and potential tariff reversals that could hurt pricing power. Additionally, the stock is near its 52-week high, limiting near-term upside. The most severe risk is a recession, which could drive the stock down 47% to the 52-week low of $131.32. Investors should also monitor capital expenditure levels, as FCF of $225M lagged capex of $661M in Q1 2026.
The 12-month outlook is moderately bullish. The base case (50% probability) sees the stock trading in the $250-$270 range, driven by stable steel demand and margins. The bull case (25% probability) targets $270-$285, fueled by sustained demand and tariff benefits. The bear case (25% probability) sees a decline to $200-$224 if a downturn occurs. The most likely scenario is the base case, with the stock reaching the analyst average target of $267.13, implying 7.9% upside.
Nucor's trailing P/E of 21.66x is above its historical low of 2.7x but below the 38.5x peak, indicating it is not extremely overvalued. The forward P/E of 14.24x is near the upper end of the steel sector's typical 10-15x range, suggesting a fair valuation given the earnings growth trajectory. The P/S ratio of 1.16x is modest. Compared to peers, Nucor trades at a premium due to its market leadership and low-cost production. Overall, the stock appears fairly valued, with the market pricing in continued strong earnings.
Nucor is a good buy for investors seeking cyclical exposure to the steel industry with a strong balance sheet and favorable trade tailwinds. The analyst consensus is Buy with an average target of $267.13, implying 7.9% upside. However, the stock's high beta (1.922) and cyclical earnings make it unsuitable for risk-averse investors. The biggest downside risk is a recession, which could drive the stock to $131.32 (52-week low). For those with a 12-month horizon and tolerance for volatility, Nucor offers attractive risk/reward given its accelerating revenue and expanding margins.
Nucor is best suited for medium-term tactical investments (12-24 months) given its cyclical nature and high beta (1.922). Long-term holders must endure significant volatility, as seen in the 52-week range of $131.32 to $270.90. The stock does not offer a meaningful dividend (yield 1.36%), so it is not an income play. Short-term traders can capitalize on momentum, but the decelerating 1-month return (+2.93%) suggests caution. A minimum holding period of 12 months is recommended to capture the cyclical upswing.