Nucor
NUE
$240.48
-3.32%
Nucor Corporation is a leading American steel manufacturer, producing sheet, plate, structural, and bar steel products, along with steel products and raw materials, primarily through electric arc furnaces (EAFs) that recycle scrap steel. As the largest steel producer in the United States, Nucor is distinguished by its cost-efficient mini-mill model, vertical integration into raw materials, and a diversified product portfolio that serves service centers, fabricators, and manufacturers across North America. The current investor narrative centers on the company's exceptional performance amid a robust domestic steel market, driven by durable tariffs (e.g., Section 301 replacements) that bolster pricing power and demand, while also focusing on margin expansion and record earnings, as evidenced by recent quarterly results and sector-wide strength.…
NUE
Nucor
$240.48
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Investment Opinion: Should I buy NUE Today?
Based on the analysis, Nucor is rated a Buy, supported by a consensus recommendation of 'buy' and an average analyst target of $283.56, implying 5.4% upside from the current price of $268.91. The thesis is that durable tariffs and infrastructure spending will sustain elevated steel prices, driving continued earnings growth and margin expansion. Key supporting data include Q1 2026 revenue growth of 21.28% YoY, forward PE of 14.28x versus trailing 21.66x, net margin improvement to 7.82%, and a debt-to-equity of 0.34, all indicating strong fundamentals. However, the stock is not cheap, trading at a premium to its historical average, and the low analyst target of $231 suggests downside risk if steel prices weaken. This Buy would be downgraded to Hold if steel prices fall more than 10% or if revenue growth decelerates below 10%, and upgraded to a strong Buy if the stock pulls back to below $250 while fundamentals remain intact. Overall, Nucor is fairly valued relative to its growth prospects, but investors should be aware of cyclical risks.
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NUE 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is bullish with medium confidence, driven by strong revenue acceleration, favorable tariff environment, and attractive forward valuation. However, the high beta and cyclical nature of steel introduce uncertainty. If steel prices hold and Nucor continues to beat estimates, the stock could reach the high target. Conversely, any signs of steel price weakness or policy reversal would warrant a downgrade to neutral. Monitoring quarterly earnings and steel price indices will be key.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Nucor's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $282.81 and implied upside of +17.6% versus the current price.
Average Target
$282.81
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+17.6%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$231 - $305
Analyst target range
The target price range spans from $231.00 (low) to $305.00 (high), representing a wide spread of 32% from low to high, reflecting uncertainty about the sustainability of steel prices and demand. The high target of $305 assumes continued tariff protection, strong infrastructure spending, and margin expansion, while the low target of $231 factors in potential steel price normalization or global demand weakness. Recent ratings actions include upgrades from KeyBanc (Sector Weight to Overweight) and a downgrade from UBS (Buy to Neutral), indicating mixed sentiment but a generally constructive outlook. The wide range suggests high uncertainty, but the average target still implies modest upside, aligning with the 'Buy' consensus.
Bulls vs Bears: NUE Investment Factors
Nucor presents a compelling bull case with accelerating revenue, strong pricing power from tariffs, and a solid balance sheet, but the bear case highlights cyclicality, high beta, and valuation near highs. Currently, the bull evidence is stronger given the robust Q1 2026 results and durable tariff backdrop, but the stock's cyclical nature and limited upside to analyst targets warrant caution. The key tension is whether steel prices remain elevated; if they do, Nucor could exceed expectations, but any normalization would hit earnings hard. The market is pricing in continued strength, making the stock sensitive to any negative surprise in steel demand or policy.
Bullish
- Revenue accelerating strongly: Q1 2026 revenue of $9.496B grew 21.28% YoY and 23.5% sequentially from Q4 2025, signaling robust demand across all segments. This marks a sharp rebound from the trough in Q1 2025, driven by tariffs and infrastructure spending.
- Forward PE implies earnings growth: Trailing PE of 21.66x versus forward PE of 14.28x suggests the market expects significant EPS expansion, with a forward earnings yield of 7.0%. This aligns with analyst estimates of $17.31 EPS for the next year, up from current levels.
- Strong price momentum and relative strength: Stock is up 86.29% over the past year and 46.76% over six months, outperforming the S&P 500 by 65.92% on a relative basis. Trading near its 52-week high of $280.11, the stock shows powerful uptrend and investor confidence.
- Durable tariffs support pricing power: The transition to Section 301 tariffs covering 60 countries at 10-12.5% rates, plus a 25% tariff on Brazil, reduces import competition and supports domestic steel prices. This policy backdrop benefits Nucor's margins and volumes.
Bearish
- Cyclicality and steel price volatility: Steel is highly cyclical; Q1 2025 net margin was just 1.99% and EPS was $0.67, showing how quickly earnings can collapse. If steel prices normalize, Nucor's earnings could revert to trough levels, pressuring the stock.
- High beta amplifies market risk: Beta of 1.892 means the stock is nearly twice as volatile as the market. In a downturn, Nucor could fall significantly more than the S&P 500, as seen in the -18.43% max drawdown over the past 180 days.
- Valuation near historical highs: Current price of $268.91 is near the 52-week high of $280.11, leaving limited upside to the average analyst target of $283.56 (only 5.4% upside). The stock may be overextended after a 58.74% YTD gain.
- Analyst target range suggests uncertainty: The low target of $231 is 14.1% below the current price, while the high is $305 (13.4% upside). This wide 32% spread reflects divergent views on steel price sustainability and demand, creating downside risk.
NUE Technical Analysis
Nucor's stock is in a powerful sustained uptrend, with a 1-year price change of +86.29% and a 6-month change of +46.76%. The current price of $268.91 sits near the top of its 52-week range (52-week high $280.11, low $131.32), trading at approximately 96% of the range, indicating strong momentum and bullish sentiment, though it also suggests the stock may be overextended in the short term. The stock has outperformed the S&P 500 dramatically, with relative strength of +65.92% over the past year, underscoring its leadership within the steel sector.
Beta
1.89
1.89x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-18.4%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$131-$280
Price range past year
Annual Return
+67.6%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | NUE Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +3.1% | +1.9% |
| 3m | +3.7% | +2.3% |
| 6m | +33.6% | +10.6% |
| 1y | +67.6% | +19.5% |
| ytd | +42.0% | +11.8% |
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NUE Fundamental Analysis
Nucor's revenue trajectory is strongly accelerating, with the most recent quarter (Q1 2026) reporting revenue of $9.496 billion, a 21.28% year-over-year increase, and sequential growth from $7.687 billion in Q4 2025. This marks a significant rebound from the trough in Q1 2025 ($7.83 billion) and reflects robust demand across all segments, particularly sheet steel ($2.791 billion) and bar products ($1.689 billion), which are the largest contributors. The multi-quarter trend shows accelerating growth, with Q1 2026 revenue up 23.5% from Q4 2025, indicating a strong cyclical upswing driven by tariffs and infrastructure spending.
Quarterly Revenue
$9.5B
2026-04
Revenue YoY Growth
+21.3%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
15.8%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$532000000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is NUE Overvalued?
Given Nucor's positive net income, the PE ratio is the primary valuation metric. The trailing PE is 21.66x, while the forward PE is 14.28x, implying the market expects significant earnings growth, which aligns with the company's recent performance and analyst estimates. The gap between trailing and forward PE suggests a forward earnings yield of 7.0%, reflecting optimism about sustained high steel prices and operational efficiency.
PE
21.7x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range 3x~25x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
10.3x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial risks include Nucor's high earnings cyclicality, as evidenced by Q1 2025 net margin of just 1.99% versus 7.82% in Q1 2026, and EPS swinging from $0.67 to $3.23. The company's debt-to-equity of 0.34 is manageable, but its free cash flow TTM of $532M is modest relative to its market cap, limiting flexibility in a downturn. Revenue concentration in the steel mills segment, which generates the majority of sales, exposes the company to steel price fluctuations and demand cycles in construction and manufacturing.
FAQ
Key risks include: 1) Cyclicality of steel prices, which can cause earnings to swing dramatically, as seen in Q1 2025 when net margin was only 1.99%. 2) High beta of 1.892, making the stock more volatile than the market. 3) Policy risk from potential tariff changes, which could reduce pricing power. 4) Competition from imports and domestic rivals, which could pressure margins. The most severe risk is a steel price downturn, which could lead to a 30-40% decline in the stock.
The 12-month forecast is moderately bullish, with a base case probability of 50% targeting $270-285, a bull case probability of 30% targeting $290-305, and a bear case probability of 20% targeting $231-250. The most likely scenario is that steel prices stabilize, and Nucor meets analyst expectations, leading to a stock price around the average target of $283.56. Key assumptions include sustained tariffs and steady demand.
Nucor's trailing PE of 21.66x is above its historical average, but the forward PE of 14.28x is attractive, implying the market expects significant earnings growth. Compared to the broader market, the forward PE is lower than the S&P 500's average, suggesting it is not overvalued on a forward basis. The PS ratio of 1.16x is reasonable for a cyclical company. Overall, Nucor is fairly valued, with the market pricing in continued strong earnings, but not excessively so.
Nucor is a good buy for investors seeking exposure to the steel sector with a favorable risk/reward. The average analyst target of $283.56 implies 5.4% upside, and the forward PE of 14.28x suggests earnings growth. However, the stock is near its 52-week high, and the low target of $231 indicates 14% downside risk. It is a good buy for those who believe steel prices will remain elevated, but not for risk-averse investors. Consider buying on pullbacks to improve margin of safety.
Nucor is suitable for both, but with different considerations. For short-term traders, the stock's high beta and momentum offer opportunities, but also higher risk. For long-term investors, Nucor's cyclical nature means timing is important; buying during downturns can yield significant returns, as seen in the past year. Given the current high valuation, a long-term horizon of 3-5 years is recommended to ride out cycles, with the potential for capital appreciation and dividend income.