Onto Innovation
ONTO
$315.88
-9.20%
Onto Innovation Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and supports high-performance control metrology, defect inspection, lithography, and data analysis systems for microelectronics device manufacturers, operating within the semiconductor capital equipment industry. The company is a key player in the advanced process control segment, providing critical tools that enable chipmakers to improve yields and manage the complexities of next-generation semiconductor manufacturing. The current investor narrative is driven by the company's positioning within the secular growth of the semiconductor industry, particularly the demand for advanced packaging and heterogeneous integration technologies, as evidenced by its strong recent stock performance and revenue growth trajectory.…
ONTO
Onto Innovation
$315.88
ONTO 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Onto Innovation's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $410.64 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$410.64
2 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
2
covering this stock
Price Range
$253 - $411
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage for ONTO appears limited, with only 2 analysts providing estimates for revenue and EPS, suggesting this may be a mid-cap name with lower institutional tracking. The consensus leans bullish, as evidenced by recent institutional ratings from firms like Needham and B. Riley Securities maintaining 'Buy' or 'Outperform' ratings, while Stifel has a 'Hold'. The average revenue estimate for the forward period is $2.59 billion, with a range from $2.47 billion to $2.73 billion, indicating expectations for solid growth from the TTM run-rate. The target price range is not explicitly provided in the data, but the implied valuation from forward estimates and recent rating actions signal positive sentiment. The wide spread between the high and low revenue estimates (approximately $260 million) reflects a degree of uncertainty regarding the pace of the growth recovery. The recent upgrade from Cantor Fitzgerald to 'Overweight' from 'Neutral' in mid-February is a notable positive catalyst that likely contributed to the stock's momentum. Limited coverage can lead to higher volatility and less efficient price discovery, but the consistent bullish stance from covering analysts underscores confidence in the company's strategic positioning.
ONTO Technical Analysis
The stock is in a powerful, sustained uptrend, evidenced by a staggering 244.19% one-year price change. As of the latest close of $333.76, the price is trading near the top of its 52-week range, approximately 96% of the distance from its 52-week low of $89.40 to its high of $348.76, indicating strong momentum but also potential overextension. Recent momentum has been exceptionally strong, with the stock up 34.54% over the past month and 66.74% over the past three months, significantly outpacing the SPY's gains of 0.74% and 15.14% over the same periods, respectively, highlighting its status as a high-beta momentum leader. Short-term momentum remains robust, with the 1-month gain of 34.54% accelerating from the 3-month gain of 66.74%, suggesting continued buying pressure. This acceleration aligns with the longer-term uptrend, though the stock's high beta of 1.625 indicates it is 62.5% more volatile than the broader market, which explains the amplified moves. The price action shows a recent surge from around $253 on June 5th to over $333, confirming strong bullish conviction in the near term. Key technical levels are clear, with immediate resistance at the 52-week high of $348.76 and support anchored by the 52-week low of $89.40, though more relevant near-term support may be found around the $250-$270 zone from recent consolidation. A decisive breakout above $348.76 would signal a continuation of the primary bull trend, while a breakdown below key support could trigger a significant correction. The stock's high beta of 1.625 underscores its high-risk, high-reward profile, requiring investors to size positions appropriately for its inherent volatility.
Beta
1.63
1.63x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-20.2%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$89-$349
Price range past year
Annual Return
+236.8%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | ONTO Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +20.4% | -1.6% |
| 3m | +42.9% | +11.7% |
| 6m | +95.2% | +6.3% |
| 1y | +236.8% | +22.2% |
| ytd | +90.4% | +7.6% |
Bobby - Your AI Investment Partner
Get real-time data, AI-driven personalized investment analysis to make smarter investment decisions
ONTO Fundamental Analysis
Revenue growth has been positive but decelerating in the most recent quarter, with Q4 2025 revenue of $266.87 million representing a modest 1.11% year-over-year increase. This marks a slowdown from the stronger growth seen in prior quarters of 2025, such as Q1's $266.61 million (up from $228.85 million in Q1 2024) and Q2's $253.60 million. The revenue segment data shows Systems and Software Revenue of $228.38 million as the primary driver, significantly outpacing Parts ($22.25M) and Service ($16.24M) revenue, indicating the core equipment business remains the growth engine. The company is profitable, with Q4 2025 net income of $10.53 million, though this represents a sharp sequential decline from Q3's $28.22 million and Q2's $33.91 million. Gross margin for the quarter was 46.39%, a compression from the 49.72% trailing twelve-month gross margin, while the net margin for the quarter was 3.95%, down significantly from the TTM net margin of 13.60%. This margin compression suggests potential pricing pressure or mix shift, though the company maintains a solid operating margin of 13.22% on a TTM basis. The balance sheet is exceptionally strong, with a minimal debt-to-equity ratio of 0.0083, indicating virtually no financial leverage risk. Liquidity is robust, evidenced by a current ratio of 5.79. The company generates healthy cash flow, with TTM free cash flow of $299.80 million, providing ample internal funding for growth initiatives and capital returns, such as the $150 million in stock repurchases noted in the Q4 cash flow statement. Return on equity is a modest 6.51%, reflecting the capital-intensive nature of the business.
Quarterly Revenue
$266866000.0B
2026-01
Revenue YoY Growth
+0.01%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.46%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$299802000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
Open an Account, get $2 TSLA now!
Valuation Analysis: Is ONTO Overvalued?
Given the company's positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio. The trailing PE ratio is elevated at 59.58x, while the forward PE is significantly lower at 33.93x, based on estimated EPS of $16.29. This substantial gap implies the market is pricing in a strong recovery and growth in earnings over the next twelve months, expecting profitability to rebound from the lower Q4 levels. Compared to typical semiconductor equipment peers, ONTO's forward PE of 33.9x trades at a premium. While direct industry average data is not provided in the valuation set, the elevated multiples (PS of 8.11x, EV/Sales of 14.63x, EV/EBITDA of 35.01x) suggest the market is assigning a growth premium, likely for its exposure to advanced packaging and metrology—key enablers for AI and next-gen chips. The PEG ratio is negative at -1.86, but this is often distorted by near-term earnings volatility and may not be a reliable signal. Historically, the current trailing PE of 59.58x is near the upper end of its own range observed over recent quarters, which has fluctuated from the mid-20s to over 190x during the low-profitability Q4. Trading near historical highs suggests the market has already priced in a highly optimistic outlook for earnings acceleration and market share gains. This leaves little room for error, and any disappointment in future earnings could lead to significant multiple contraction.
PE
59.7x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 13x~194x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
35.0x
Enterprise Value Multiple

