Ouster
OUST
$43.28
-8.94%
Ouster, Inc. is a leading provider of lidar sensors and software solutions for the automotive, industrial, robotics, and smart infrastructure sectors. The company distinguishes itself through its high-resolution digital lidar technology and its strategic merger with Velodyne, positioning it as a dominant player in the lidar market. Currently, the stock is attracting significant investor attention due to a dramatic price surge driven by expectations of accelerating revenue growth and potential profitability, fueled by recent contract wins and expanding adoption of lidar in autonomous systems.…
OUST
Ouster
$43.28
OUST 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Ouster's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $56.26 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$56.26
2 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
2
covering this stock
Price Range
$35 - $56
Analyst target range
Only 2 analysts cover Ouster, indicating limited institutional coverage typical for a small-cap stock. The consensus recommendation is not explicitly provided, but the average EPS estimate of $0.42 suggests analysts expect profitability on a non-GAAP basis. The average revenue estimate is $538.9M, with a range of $520.4M to $554.8M. The implied upside from the current price of $49.84 to the average target is not directly calculable without a price target, but the EPS estimates imply a forward PE of 118.7x, reflecting high growth expectations. The narrow revenue range suggests relatively high conviction among the few analysts. The limited coverage means the stock may experience higher volatility and less efficient price discovery, as fewer analysts are providing scrutiny and guidance.
OUST Technical Analysis
Ouster is in a powerful uptrend, with the stock price up 132.9% over the past year. The current price of $49.84 sits at 78.1% of its 52-week range ($16.40 low to $63.79 high), indicating strong bullish momentum but also proximity to resistance. Trading near the upper end of the range suggests the stock is in a momentum-driven phase, though it may be overextended in the short term. Short-term momentum is accelerating, with a 1-month gain of 8.3% and a 3-month gain of 155.7%, far outpacing the S&P 500's 1-month decline of 1.25% and 3-month gain of 13.6%. This divergence from the broader market highlights Ouster's strong relative strength, but the 1-month deceleration from the explosive 3-month move could signal a potential consolidation or pullback. The stock's beta of 3.175 indicates it is more than three times as volatile as the market, amplifying both upside and downside risks. Key support lies near the 52-week low of $16.40, while resistance is at the 52-week high of $63.79. A breakout above $63.79 would signal a continuation of the uptrend, while a breakdown below $40 could indicate a trend reversal. The high beta suggests that any market downturn could lead to outsized losses.
Beta
3.17
3.17x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-55.1%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$16-$64
Price range past year
Annual Return
+76.9%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | OUST Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +12.7% | +4.1% |
| 3m | +109.2% | +11.1% |
| 6m | +55.3% | +8.8% |
| 1y | +76.9% | +20.6% |
| ytd | +85.2% | +10.7% |
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OUST Fundamental Analysis
Ouster's revenue trajectory is accelerating, with the most recent quarterly revenue estimated at $538.9 million (consensus), reflecting strong growth from lidar sensor sales. The company's gross margin stands at 49.3%, indicating improving unit economics as production scales. However, the company remains unprofitable, with a net margin of -35.6% and an EPS of -$0.05, though losses are narrowing as revenue grows. The operating margin of -43.7% suggests significant operating leverage potential as revenue scales. Ouster has a healthy balance sheet with a current ratio of 3.93, indicating ample liquidity to cover short-term obligations. Debt-to-equity is very low at 0.065, suggesting minimal leverage. However, free cash flow is negative (PCF ratio of -30.5), meaning the company is still burning cash to fund growth. ROE is -23.1%, reflecting current unprofitability, but the low debt levels provide financial flexibility.
Quarterly Revenue
N/A
N/A
Revenue YoY Growth
N/A
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
N/A
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
N/A
Last 12 Months
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Valuation Analysis: Is OUST Overvalued?
Since Ouster has negative net income, we use the price-to-sales (PS) ratio as the primary valuation metric. The trailing PS ratio is 7.2x, while the forward PS ratio (based on estimated revenue of $538.9M) is approximately 2.3x, implying the market expects significant revenue growth. Compared to the semiconductor industry average PS of around 5x, Ouster trades at a 44% premium on a trailing basis, but on a forward basis it appears cheaper. The PEG ratio of 0.42 suggests the stock is undervalued relative to its earnings growth potential, though earnings are currently negative. Historically, Ouster's PS ratio has ranged from 2x to 20x over the past year; the current 7.2x is near the middle of that range, indicating the stock is not at extreme valuation levels. The forward PS compression reflects the market's expectation of rapid revenue expansion.
PE
-20.2x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
N/A
5-Year PE Range 17x~59x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
-23.2x
Enterprise Value Multiple