Restaurant Brands International
QSR
$77.01
-1.61%
Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR) is a global quick-service restaurant company that franchises and operates iconic brands including Burger King, Tim Hortons, Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen, and Firehouse Subs, generating approximately $47 billion in system sales across over 33,000 restaurants in more than 120 markets. As one of the world's largest restaurant companies, it holds a dominant position in the fast-food industry, with a diversified portfolio spanning burgers, coffee, chicken, and subs. The current investor narrative centers on the successful turnaround of Burger King, which has driven strong same-store sales growth and renewed optimism, while concerns persist over Tim Hortons' slowdown and the company's high leverage. Recent headlines highlight Burger King's $700 million reinvestment strategy paying off, positioning QSR as a compelling value play with a notable dividend yield.…
QSR
Restaurant Brands International
$77.01
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy QSR Today?
Based on the analysis, QSR is rated as a Buy. The thesis is that Burger King's successful turnaround, evidenced by 5.8% same-store sales growth, is driving revenue acceleration and will lead to earnings growth, making the stock undervalued at its forward PE of 18.1x. The average analyst target of $85.92 implies a 7.2% upside, and the high target of $104 suggests even greater potential. The stock also offers a high dividend yield of 4.86%, providing income while waiting for capital appreciation.
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QSR 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is bullish on QSR over the next 12 months, driven by the successful Burger King turnaround and attractive valuation. The forward PE suggests significant earnings growth is expected, and the low beta provides a defensive cushion. However, high leverage and Tim Hortons' weakness introduce uncertainty, warranting a medium confidence level. The stance would be upgraded to high confidence if Burger King's same-store sales growth accelerates above 6% and Tim Hortons shows signs of stabilization. Conversely, a downgrade to neutral would occur if revenue growth decelerates below 5% or if the dividend is cut.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Restaurant Brands International's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $85.92 and implied upside of +11.6% versus the current price.
Average Target
$85.92
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+11.6%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$79 - $104
Analyst target range
The target price range spans from a low of $79.00 to a high of $104.00, with the average at $85.92. The wide spread of $25.00 between the low and high targets indicates significant uncertainty about QSR's future performance. The high target of $104.00 implies a 29.7% upside, likely assuming successful execution of Burger King's turnaround and margin expansion, while the low target of $79.00 suggests a modest downside of 1.5%, reflecting concerns about Tim Hortons' weakness and high leverage. The presence of both aggressive and conservative targets suggests that analysts have divergent views on the company's ability to sustain growth, with the recent ratings showing no major upgrades or downgrades, indicating a stable but cautious outlook.
Bulls vs Bears: QSR Investment Factors
QSR presents a mixed picture: the Burger King turnaround is driving solid revenue growth and the stock offers an attractive forward valuation and high dividend yield, but high leverage, Tim Hortons' weakness, and a stretched trailing PE introduce significant risks. Currently, the bull case has stronger evidence, supported by analyst consensus and improving fundamentals, but the high debt load and dividend coverage issues are the most critical tensions. The key factor to watch is whether Burger King's momentum can sustain and offset Tim Hortons' decline, which would validate the forward PE and support further upside.
Bullish
- Burger King Turnaround Driving Growth: Burger King's same-store sales grew 5.8% in Q1 2026, confirming the success of the $700 million reinvestment strategy. This is the primary growth engine, with company revenue up 7.35% YoY to $2.264 billion, accelerating from prior quarters.
- Attractive Forward Valuation: QSR trades at a forward PE of 18.1x, well below its trailing PE of 28.9x, implying the market expects significant earnings growth. This forward multiple is also below its historical average, suggesting the stock is undervalued relative to its growth prospects.
- Strong Analyst Consensus and Upside: With a 'Buy' rating from 24 analysts and an average target of $85.92, the stock offers a 7.2% upside from the current price of $80.17. The high target of $104 implies a 29.7% upside, reflecting confidence in the turnaround.
- Defensive Characteristics with Low Beta: QSR's beta of 0.534 indicates it is significantly less volatile than the market, providing a defensive quality. This is attractive for risk-averse investors, especially in uncertain economic times, and supports a stable investment profile.
Bearish
- High Leverage and Debt Burden: QSR's debt-to-equity ratio is a concerning 4.84, indicating heavy reliance on debt financing. This high leverage increases financial risk, especially if interest rates remain elevated, and could constrain future growth or dividend increases.
- Tim Hortons' Weakness as a Drag: While Burger King is recovering, Tim Hortons' slowdown remains a key risk. The brand's underperformance could offset gains from other segments, limiting overall growth and pressuring the stock's valuation.
- High Trailing PE and Negative PEG: The trailing PE of 28.9x is elevated, and the negative PEG ratio of -1.09 is unusual, suggesting potential earnings declines or data inconsistencies. This raises caution about the sustainability of current earnings and growth expectations.
- Potential Overextension Near 52-Week High: The stock is trading at $80.17, near the top of its 52-week range ($61.33-$81.96), at 97.8% of the high. This positioning may limit short-term upside and increase the risk of a pullback if momentum stalls.
QSR Technical Analysis
QSR is in a sustained uptrend, with the stock price at $80.17 as of September 4, 2026, reflecting a 29.1% gain over the past year. The current price sits near the top of its 52-week range, at approximately 97.8% of the range between the low of $61.33 and high of $81.96, indicating strong momentum and bullish sentiment. This positioning near the highs suggests the stock is trading with positive momentum, though it may be susceptible to short-term overextension. The stock's beta of 0.534 indicates it is significantly less volatile than the broader market, providing a defensive characteristic that appeals to risk-averse investors.
Beta
0.53
0.53x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-12.5%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$61-$82
Price range past year
Annual Return
+24.5%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | QSR Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +5.7% | -1.4% |
| 3m | +4.2% | +3.3% |
| 6m | +6.0% | +15.1% |
| 1y | +24.5% | +17.2% |
| ytd | +13.6% | +11.8% |
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QSR Fundamental Analysis
QSR's revenue trajectory is positive, with the most recent quarter (Q1 2026) reporting revenue of $2.264 billion, a 7.35% year-over-year increase. This growth is driven by Burger King's turnaround, which saw 5.8% same-store sales growth, while Tim Hortons' slowdown remains a drag. Over the past year, revenue has grown from $2.109 billion in Q1 2025 to $2.264 billion in Q1 2026, with sequential growth from $2.109 billion to $2.264 billion, indicating accelerating momentum. The company's diversified brand portfolio, including Popeyes and Firehouse Subs, contributes to overall stability, though Tim Hortons' performance is a key risk to monitor.
Quarterly Revenue
$2.3B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+7.3%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
49.6%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$1.5B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is QSR Overvalued?
Given QSR's positive net income, the PE ratio is the primary valuation metric. The trailing PE is 28.9x, while the forward PE is 18.1x, indicating that the market expects significant earnings growth, as the forward multiple is substantially lower. This gap suggests that analysts anticipate a strong earnings rebound, likely driven by Burger King's turnaround and margin expansion. The forward PE of 18.1x is below the company's historical average, suggesting the stock may be undervalued relative to its growth prospects. However, the PEG ratio is negative at -1.09, which is unusual and may indicate expected earnings declines or data inconsistencies, warranting caution in interpreting growth expectations.
PE
28.9x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range 8x~25x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
16.2x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial and operational risks are significant for QSR. The company's debt-to-equity ratio of 4.84 indicates high leverage, which amplifies vulnerability to rising interest rates and economic downturns. Interest expenses were $171 million in Q1 2026, consuming a substantial portion of operating income. Additionally, the dividend payout ratio of 1.43 suggests dividends are not fully covered by earnings, posing a risk of reduction if cash flows weaken. Revenue growth is also concentrated in Burger King's recovery, while Tim Hortons' slowdown could drag overall performance, as seen in its underperformance relative to other brands.