Rambus
RMBS
$103.11
-8.02%
Rambus Inc is a semiconductor company that provides chips and silicon intellectual property (IP) for data-intensive computing systems, primarily targeting data center and artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure. As a niche player in high-performance memory subsystems, it differentiates itself through a balanced portfolio of products, IP, and patents that address signal and power integrity challenges at extreme data rates. The current investor narrative centers on the company's positioning to benefit from AI-driven computing growth, but recent mixed earnings and a cautious revenue outlook have sparked debate about near-term momentum. Additionally, a high-profile short bet on the semiconductor sector by Michael Burry has added to the uncertainty surrounding the stock.…
RMBS
Rambus
$103.11
Related headlines
RMBS 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Rambus's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $134.04 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$134.04
3 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
3
covering this stock
Price Range
$82 - $134
Analyst target range
Only 3 analysts cover Rambus, with a consensus leaning bullish—all recent ratings are Buy or Overweight/Positive. The average EPS estimate for the current fiscal year is $4.89, with a low of $4.46 and high of $5.32. Revenue estimates average $1.32 billion, implying 19.5% growth from the trailing twelve months. The lack of explicit price targets in the data limits upside/downside calculation, but the bullish ratings suggest analysts see further upside. The narrow range of EPS estimates (low to high spread of $0.86) indicates relatively high conviction among the few covering analysts. The high estimate of $5.32 assumes continued margin expansion and revenue acceleration from AI-related demand, while the low estimate of $4.46 factors in potential headwinds from the mixed Q1 report and cautious outlook. The limited coverage (3 analysts) is typical for a mid-cap stock like Rambus (market cap ~$9.9B), which can lead to higher volatility and less efficient price discovery. The absence of downgrades or negative revisions in the institutional ratings data reinforces the positive sentiment, but investors should monitor for any shifts in analyst tone following the recent earnings miss.
RMBS Technical Analysis
Rambus is in a volatile uptrend over the long term, with a 1-year price change of +73.5%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's +20.6%. The current price of $112.10 sits at 46.5% of its 52-week range ($61.16–$174.10), indicating a pullback from the highs but still well above the low. This positioning suggests the stock is in a corrective phase within a broader uptrend, offering a potential entry point if support holds, but also reflecting waning momentum from the peak. The 1-month price change of -18.8% contrasts sharply with the 1-year gain, signaling a sharp deceleration in short-term momentum. The 3-month change of +1.5% shows a flattening, while the 6-month change of +20.0% indicates the longer-term trend remains positive. This divergence—strong annual gains but recent weakness—could signal a temporary pullback or the start of a deeper correction, especially given the stock's beta of 1.84, which implies 84% more volatility than the market. The 52-week high of $174.10 acts as key resistance, while the 52-week low of $61.16 provides support. A breakout above $174.10 would signal renewed bullish momentum, while a breakdown below $61.16 would indicate a severe trend reversal. With a beta of 1.84, Rambus is highly sensitive to market swings, amplifying both upside and downside risks for position sizing.
Beta
1.84
1.84x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-39.6%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$61-$174
Price range past year
Annual Return
+61.0%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | RMBS Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -29.6% | +1.0% |
| 3m | -15.3% | +7.9% |
| 6m | +2.5% | +8.5% |
| 1y | +61.0% | +20.1% |
| ytd | +3.9% | +9.9% |
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RMBS Fundamental Analysis
Rambus has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with Q4 2025 revenue of $190.2 million, up 18.1% year-over-year from $161.1 million in Q4 2024. Revenue has accelerated from $117.9 million in Q1 2024 to $190.2 million in Q4 2025, a 61.4% increase over eight quarters, driven by product revenue ($96.8 million) and royalties ($71.7 million) in the latest quarter. This growth trajectory supports the investment case for AI-driven demand, though the Q1 2026 earnings miss and cautious Q2 outlook suggest potential deceleration. The company is highly profitable, with Q4 2025 net income of $63.8 million and a gross margin of 78.9%, up from 73.2% in Q1 2024. Operating margin improved to 37.2% in Q4 2025 from 26.2% in Q1 2024, reflecting operating leverage. Net margin stood at 33.6% in Q4 2025, well above the semiconductor industry average, indicating strong pricing power and cost control. Rambus boasts a pristine balance sheet with a debt-to-equity ratio of just 0.032 and a current ratio of 8.20, indicating ample liquidity. Free cash flow (FCF) for Q4 2025 was $93.3 million, bringing trailing twelve-month FCF to $333.2 million. The company generates sufficient cash to fund growth internally, with no reliance on external financing. Return on equity (ROE) of 16.9% and return on assets (ROA) of 11.1% underscore efficient capital allocation and strong profitability.
Quarterly Revenue
$190244000.0B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+18.09%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
78.86%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$333177000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is RMBS Overvalued?
Since net income is positive, the trailing P/E ratio of 42.9x is the primary valuation metric. The forward P/E of 30.6x implies a 28.7% discount to trailing, reflecting market expectations of earnings growth. The PEG ratio of 1.53 suggests the stock is reasonably priced relative to its growth rate, though not cheap. Compared to the semiconductor industry average P/E of approximately 25x, Rambus trades at a 72% premium (42.9x vs. 25x). This premium may be justified by its superior net margin of 32.6% versus the industry average of around 20%, as well as its strong revenue growth and high gross margin of 76.0%. However, the premium also reflects elevated expectations that leave little room for error. Historically, Rambus's trailing P/E has ranged from 10.4x (Q2 2023) to 744x (Q3 2022), with the current 42.9x near the middle of its five-year band. The current P/E is below the 52.0x seen in Q1 2025 but above the 22.8x in Q4 2024, indicating that valuation has expanded over the past year but has moderated from recent peaks. This suggests the market is pricing in optimistic but not extreme growth expectations.
PE
42.9x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range -209x~744x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
31.1x
Enterprise Value Multiple

