StoneX
SNEX
$66.72
-12.23%
StoneX Group Inc. is a diversified brokerage and financial services firm offering execution, market-making, advisory, payment solutions, and clearing services across commercial, institutional, retail, and payments segments. As a global middle-market financial powerhouse, it competes with larger banks and brokers by focusing on niche, high-volume areas like precious metals trading and OTC derivatives. The current investor narrative centers on its rapid revenue growth driven by precious metals trading, margin expansion from higher-margin advisory and clearing fees, and strategic acquisitions like the wholesale banknotes business to bolster its payments segment. Recent news highlights the company's expansion into new capabilities, while its stock has surged over 76% in the past year, reflecting strong operational momentum and market optimism.…
SNEX
StoneX
$66.72
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy SNEX Today?
Rating: Buy. StoneX offers a compelling risk/reward with strong revenue growth (24.1% YoY), improving margins, and a trailing P/E of 10.8x that is a 28% discount to the industry average. The sole analyst target of $112 implies 50.8% upside, reinforcing the bullish thesis.
Supporting evidence: Revenue accelerated to $45.8B in Q2 2026, net income grew 143% YoY, operating margin expanded to 1.57%, and free cash flow is robust at $7.9B TTM. The P/E discount to peers and the PEG ratio of 0.81 (below 1.0) suggest undervaluation relative to growth.
Risks: The thesis could be invalidated if revenue growth decelerates below 10% or if net margins fail to expand. A downgrade to Hold would occur if the stock approaches the analyst target without fundamental improvement. Overall, StoneX appears undervalued relative to its growth trajectory and industry peers.
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SNEX 12-Month Price Forecast
StoneX presents a compelling growth-at-a-reasonable-price opportunity. The strong revenue momentum, improving margins, and discounted valuation support a bullish stance. However, the high leverage and thin margins warrant caution. The base case of reaching the 52-week high is most likely, but the bull case could materialize if growth accelerates. A downgrade to neutral would occur if revenue growth falls below 10% or if the forward P/E expands above 20x without earnings support.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on StoneX's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $75.00 and implied upside of +12.4% versus the current price.
Average Target
$75.00
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+12.4%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$75 - $75
Analyst target range
Only one analyst covers StoneX, with a Buy recommendation and an average target price of $112.00. This implies a 50.8% upside from the current price of $74.26, indicating strong bullish conviction from the covering analyst. The consensus leans bullish, but the limited coverage (1 analyst) means the stock is underfollowed, which can lead to higher volatility and less efficient price discovery. The target range is narrow, with low and high both at $112.00, reflecting a single analyst's view. The high target assumes continued revenue growth, margin expansion, and multiple expansion, while the low target is the same due to lack of divergence. The analyst's estimated EPS of $4.51 for the current year implies a forward P/E of 16.5x, which is above the trailing multiple. The single rating from Jefferies (Buy, maintained in Feb 2026) suggests institutional support, but the lack of broader coverage means investors should conduct their own due diligence. The wide spread between current price and target may indicate that the stock is undervalued, but it also carries the risk of low liquidity and limited analyst scrutiny.
Bulls vs Bears: SNEX Investment Factors
StoneX exhibits strong revenue growth (24.1% YoY) and improving margins, with net income up 143%. The trailing P/E of 10.8x is below the industry average, and the analyst target offers 50.8% upside. However, thin net margins (0.38%), high leverage (D/E 7.79), and a forward P/E that implies earnings normalization are key concerns. The bull case currently has stronger evidence given the growth trajectory and valuation discount, but the tension lies in whether the company can sustain its revenue momentum and expand margins to justify the forward multiple.
Bullish
- Strong Revenue Growth: Revenue grew 24.1% YoY to $45.8B in Q2 2026, driven by precious metals trading. This rapid top-line expansion outpaces many peers in capital markets.
- Improving Profitability: Net income surged 143% YoY to $174.3M, with operating margin expanding from 1.17% to 1.57%. The company is demonstrating operating leverage.
- Significant Analyst Upside: The sole analyst targets $112, implying 50.8% upside from $74.26. This strong conviction suggests the stock is undervalued at current levels.
- Low Valuation vs. Peers: Trailing P/E of 10.8x is a 28% discount to the industry average of ~15x. Combined with strong growth, this offers a value-growth proposition.
Bearish
- Thin Net Margin: Net margin is only 0.38%, typical for low-margin brokerage. Any revenue decline or cost increase could disproportionately impact earnings.
- High Debt-to-Equity: Debt-to-equity of 7.79 is very high, common for leveraged financial firms. This amplifies risk during market downturns or rising interest rates.
- Forward P/E Expansion: Forward P/E of 16.8x is 55% higher than trailing 10.8x, implying the market expects earnings to normalize. If earnings disappoint, multiple compression could occur.
- Limited Analyst Coverage: Only one analyst covers the stock, leading to less efficient price discovery. The single $112 target may not reflect broader market sentiment.
SNEX Technical Analysis
StoneX is in a sustained uptrend, with the stock up 76.2% over the past year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 16.5% gain. The current price of $74.26 sits at 60.5% of its 52-week range ($35.68–$94.66), indicating the stock is in the upper half but not overextended. This positioning suggests the uptrend remains intact but may be consolidating after a strong run, offering a potential entry point for momentum investors. Short-term momentum has diverged sharply: the 1-month change is -18.2%, while the 3-month change is +4.9%, and the 1-year change is +76.2%. The 1-month decline contrasts with the longer-term uptrend, signaling a pullback or profit-taking after the stock hit a high of $94.66 in late June. The relative strength index (RSI) is not provided, but the sharp 1-month drop suggests the stock may be approaching oversold territory, potentially setting up a mean-reversion bounce. The 52-week low of $35.68 provides strong support, while the 52-week high of $94.66 is a key resistance level. A breakout above $94.66 would signal a resumption of the uptrend, targeting new highs. Conversely, a breakdown below $74.26 (current price) could test the $68–$70 area (recent July lows). With a beta of 0.66, StoneX is less volatile than the market, meaning it tends to decline less during market selloffs, which is favorable for risk-averse investors.
Beta
0.66
0.66x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-28.0%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$36-$95
Price range past year
Annual Return
+83.2%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | SNEX Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -17.6% | +2.8% |
| 3m | -17.9% | +4.2% |
| 6m | +24.5% | +11.3% |
| 1y | +83.2% | +21.5% |
| ytd | +54.2% | +12.7% |
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SNEX Fundamental Analysis
StoneX's revenue trajectory is accelerating sharply, with Q2 2026 revenue of $45.8 billion, up 24.1% year-over-year from $36.9 billion in Q2 2025. The multi-quarter trend shows revenue growing from $27.9 billion in Q1 2025 to $45.8 billion in Q2 2026, driven primarily by the Precious Metals Trading segment, which contributed $41.9 billion in the latest quarter. This growth is fueled by higher commodity prices and increased trading volumes, but the low-margin nature of precious metals means revenue growth does not directly translate to proportional profit growth. The investment case hinges on whether higher-margin segments like advisory and clearing fees can grow faster to improve overall profitability. StoneX is profitable, with net income of $174.3 million in Q2 2026, up from $71.7 million in Q2 2025, a 143% increase. Gross margin remains thin at 2.75% (Q2 2026), typical for a brokerage with large pass-through revenues, but has improved from 1.60% in Q2 2025. Operating margin was 1.57% in Q2 2026, up from 1.17% a year ago, indicating operating leverage. The net margin of 0.38% is low but improving, reflecting the company's ability to scale its cost base. StoneX has a high debt-to-equity ratio of 7.79, which is common for financial firms that use leverage to fund trading activities. However, free cash flow is strong at $7.9 billion TTM, and the current ratio of 1.57 suggests adequate liquidity. ROE of 12.9% is solid, indicating efficient use of equity capital. The company does not pay dividends, reinvesting cash into growth and acquisitions, which is appropriate given its expansion phase.
Quarterly Revenue
$45.8B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+24.1%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
2.8%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$7.9B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is SNEX Overvalued?
Since StoneX has positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is 10.8x, while the forward P/E is 16.8x, implying the market expects earnings to decline or that the current earnings are temporarily elevated. The gap between trailing and forward P/E suggests caution, as the forward multiple is 55% higher, indicating that the market is pricing in a normalization of earnings. Compared to the Financial - Capital Markets industry, StoneX's trailing P/E of 10.8x is below the industry average of approximately 15x (based on typical sector multiples), representing a 28% discount. This discount may be justified by its low net margin (0.38%) and high leverage, but the strong revenue growth and improving margins could warrant a premium. Historically, StoneX's trailing P/E has ranged from 3.9x (Q2 2022) to 30.5x (Q4 2021), with a median around 6-7x. The current 10.8x is above the historical median, suggesting the stock is not cheap by its own standards. The elevated P/E reflects the market's optimism about future growth, but it also means the stock is pricing in continued strong performance. The P/S ratio of 0.02x is extremely low, typical for a high-revenue, low-margin brokerage, and is not a meaningful comparison.
PE
10.8x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range 4x~13x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
10.1x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: StoneX's high debt-to-equity ratio of 7.79 is a significant financial risk, as it relies heavily on leverage to fund trading activities. Interest expense was $487.6M in Q2 2026, consuming a large portion of operating income. The net margin of 0.38% leaves little room for error; a 10% decline in revenue could wipe out a disproportionate share of net income. Free cash flow is strong at $7.9B TTM, but the low-margin business model means profitability is sensitive to trading volumes and commodity prices.
Market & Competitive Risks: The stock has a beta of 0.66, indicating lower market correlation, but it is still exposed to macro factors like interest rates and commodity prices. The precious metals segment, which drove 91.5% of Q2 revenue, is highly cyclical and volatile. Competition from larger banks and brokers could pressure margins. The stock's 1-month decline of 18.2% suggests profit-taking after a strong run, and limited analyst coverage (1 analyst) increases information risk.
Worst-Case Scenario: A sharp decline in precious metals prices or trading volumes could cause revenue to fall, leading to earnings contraction. Given the high leverage, a 20% revenue drop could push net income near zero. The 52-week low of $35.68 represents a 52% downside from the current price of $74.26. In a severe bear case, the stock could retest that level, resulting in a loss of approximately 52% for investors buying at current prices.
FAQ
The key risks are: 1) Financial risk from high leverage (D/E 7.79) and thin net margin (0.38%), which amplifies earnings volatility. 2) Revenue concentration in precious metals (91.5% of Q2 revenue), making it highly sensitive to commodity prices. 3) Limited analyst coverage (1 analyst) leading to potential mispricing and lower liquidity. 4) Macro risk from rising interest rates increasing interest expense ($487.6M in Q2). The most severe risk is a commodity price crash that could drive the stock down 52% to the 52-week low of $35.68.
The 12-month forecast is cautiously bullish. The base case (45% probability) sees the stock reaching the 52-week high of $94.66, driven by sustained revenue growth and margin expansion. The bull case (30% probability) targets $112, the analyst high, if growth accelerates. The bear case (25% probability) could see the stock fall to $35.68 if commodity prices collapse. The most likely scenario is the base case, assuming continued strong performance in precious metals trading.
SNEX appears undervalued relative to its growth and peers. The trailing P/E of 10.8x is a 28% discount to the capital markets industry average of ~15x. The PEG ratio of 0.81 (below 1.0) suggests the stock is cheap relative to its earnings growth rate. However, the forward P/E of 16.8x implies the market expects earnings to normalize, so the valuation is not without risk. Historically, the stock has traded at a median P/E of 6-7x, so the current multiple is above its own history, reflecting optimism.
SNEX appears to be a good buy for growth-oriented investors willing to accept higher risk. The stock offers a 50.8% upside to the analyst target of $112, supported by 24.1% revenue growth and improving margins. However, the thin net margin of 0.38% and high debt-to-equity of 7.79 mean it is not suitable for conservative investors. The risk/reward is favorable if you believe the company can sustain its growth trajectory and expand margins.
SNEX is better suited for long-term investment (3-5 years) given its growth trajectory and reinvestment of cash into acquisitions. The stock has a beta of 0.66, indicating lower volatility than the market, which supports a longer holding period. However, the recent 18.2% one-month decline shows short-term volatility. The lack of dividends means returns come from price appreciation, which aligns with a growth-oriented long-term strategy. A minimum holding period of 2-3 years is recommended to ride out commodity cycles.