TTM Technologies
TTMI
$194.05
+3.65%
TTM Technologies Inc. is a leading manufacturer of advanced technology products, including printed circuit boards (PCBs), RF/microwave assemblies, and engineered systems for mission-critical applications. The company operates as a key supplier across three primary segments: Aerospace & Defense (A&D), Commercial (including automotive, medical, and data centers), and RF&S Components, positioning itself as an essential infrastructure provider in high-reliability electronics. The current investor narrative is overwhelmingly focused on the company's explosive growth trajectory, driven by surging demand for its products from AI data centers, as evidenced by record quarterly results announced in April 2026 that sparked a significant stock rally. This has framed TTMI as a direct beneficiary of the AI hardware build-out, transforming its investment story from a cyclical industrial player to a high-growth technology infrastructure enabler.…
TTMI
TTM Technologies
$194.05
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Investment Opinion: Should I buy TTMI Today?
Rating & Thesis: Hold. TTMI is a compelling but high-risk growth story where explosive fundamentals are fully priced in, requiring flawless execution to justify the current valuation. The unanimous 'Buy' ratings from covering analysts and the 471% annual return reflect the powerful narrative, but the risk/reward at current levels is balanced.
Supporting Evidence: The Hold rating is supported by four key data points: 1) The forward P/E of 34.23x, while high, discounts expected earnings growth (forward EPS $6.475), 2) Revenue growth of 18.95% YoY is strong but must be sustained, 3) Net margin expansion from 0.8% to 6.6% shows impressive operational improvement, and 4) The stock trades at 92% of its 52-week high, indicating limited near-term upside without a new catalyst. However, negative FCF and a beta of 2.11 temper the optimism.
Risks & Conditions: The two biggest risks are multiple compression from its 41x trailing P/E and a slowdown in the AI capex cycle that drives growth. This Hold would upgrade to a Buy if the stock pulls back to the $150-$160 support zone (improving margin of safety) or if Q1 2026 results show accelerating FCF generation. It would downgrade to a Sell if revenue growth decelerates below 15% YoY or if the forward P/E expands above 40x without a corresponding earnings beat. The stock is currently overvalued relative to its own history but fairly valued relative to the high-growth narrative it embodies.
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TTMI 12-Month Price Forecast
The 12-month outlook is balanced with a slight skew to the upside, contingent on execution. The base case (55% probability) sees the stock consolidating gains as it grows into its valuation, with a target range of $170-$200 aligning with the current 52-week high. The bull case requires flawless execution and accelerating demand, while the bear case is a valuation reset triggered by growth disappointment. The stance is neutral due to the high valuation offset by strong fundamentals. Confidence is medium due to limited analyst coverage and the stock's high volatility. The stance would upgrade to bullish on a sustained breakout above $200 with volume, or downgrade to bearish on a breakdown below $150 support.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on TTM Technologies's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $252.27 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$252.27
2 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
2
covering this stock
Price Range
$155 - $252
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage for TTMI appears limited, with only two analysts providing estimates according to the provided data, resulting in insufficient breadth to establish a robust consensus. The average revenue estimate for the forward period is $5.30 billion, with a tight range between $5.27B and $5.34B, while the average EPS estimate is $6.475, ranging from $6.42 to $6.53. The lack of a published consensus price target or recommendation distribution in the data set indicates either very sparse coverage or that targets are not aggregated. This limited coverage is typical for small to mid-cap companies and can lead to higher volatility and less efficient price discovery, as the stock is more driven by retail and institutional flows than analyst ratings. Given the minimal analyst data, the target price range and implied upside cannot be calculated. However, the institutional ratings data shows a consistent bullish sentiment among the few firms that do cover the stock, with repeated 'Buy' reiterations from Needham, B. Riley Securities, and Truist Securities throughout late 2025 and early 2026. This pattern of sustained bullish ratings from a small cohort, coupled with the stock's massive price appreciation, suggests that covering analysts are aligned with the positive growth narrative. The absence of downgrades or sell ratings in the provided data reinforces this positive bias, but the extremely narrow coverage base means the market is not receiving a wide range of professional opinions, increasing reliance on company guidance and macroeconomic trends for valuation.
Bulls vs Bears: TTMI Investment Factors
The bull case, driven by explosive AI-driven revenue growth and dramatic margin expansion, currently holds stronger evidence, as reflected in the stock's 471% annual return and sustained bullish momentum. However, the bear case presents substantial and immediate risks centered on an extreme valuation that prices in flawless execution of a multi-year growth story. The single most important tension in the investment debate is whether TTMI's surging profitability (net margin up from 0.8% to 6.6%) can accelerate fast enough to justify and grow into its premium valuation multiples before any macroeconomic or competitive headwinds emerge. The resolution of this growth-valuation mismatch will determine the stock's direction.
Bullish
- Explosive Revenue & Profit Growth: Q4 2025 revenue grew 18.95% YoY to $774.32M, while net income skyrocketed from $5.17M to $50.69M, reflecting a net margin expansion from 0.79% to 6.55%. This dramatic profitability improvement demonstrates successful operational leverage and validates the AI-driven demand narrative.
- AI Data Center Demand Catalyst: The stock's 471% 1-year surge is directly tied to explosive demand for its products from AI data centers, as confirmed by record Q1 2026 results. The Data Center Computing segment, contributing $221.65M, is a primary growth driver, positioning TTMI as a critical AI infrastructure enabler.
- Strong Forward Earnings Growth: The forward P/E of 34.23x is a 17% discount to the trailing P/E of 41.17x, implying the market expects significant earnings growth. Analyst EPS estimates average $6.475, suggesting a forward earnings yield of 3.5% and supporting the high-growth valuation.
- Robust Technical Momentum: The stock is in a powerful uptrend, up 110% over 3 months and 471% over 1 year, significantly outperforming the SPY. Trading at 92% of its 52-week high ($200.68) indicates sustained bullish momentum and strong investor conviction in the growth story.
Bearish
- Extreme Valuation & Multiple Compression Risk: At a trailing P/E of 41.17x and EV/Sales of 6.55x, TTMI trades at a significant premium to its historical range (P/E was 16.23x in Q1 2025). This lofty valuation leaves the stock vulnerable to severe multiple compression if growth decelerates or misses expectations.
- Negative Free Cash Flow & High Capex: Trailing-twelve-month free cash flow is negative at -$683K, with Q4 2025 FCF of -$6.46M due to heavy capital expenditures of -$69.39M. This cash burn limits financial flexibility and raises questions about sustainable self-funding for growth.
- Extreme Volatility & High Beta: With a beta of 2.112, TTMI is more than twice as volatile as the market, evidenced by a maximum drawdown of -23.26%. This high volatility makes it a risky holding, susceptible to sharp corrections even within the uptrend, as seen in the recent -2.5% daily drop.
- Dependence on Sustained AI Capex Cycle: The entire investment thesis hinges on continued explosive growth in AI data center spending. Any slowdown in this capex cycle, a shift in technology, or increased competition could abruptly halt revenue growth, which is critical to justify the current valuation.
TTMI Technical Analysis
The stock is in a powerful, sustained uptrend, evidenced by a staggering 1-year price change of +471.02% as of the latest close. Currently trading at $184.84, the price sits at approximately 92% of its 52-week high of $200.68, indicating the stock is testing the upper bounds of its recent range and signaling strong bullish momentum, though it also suggests potential overextension relative to its recent low of $31.83. The near-term momentum remains exceptionally strong but shows signs of volatility; the stock gained 15.83% over the past month and 110.26% over the past three months, significantly outpacing the SPY's returns of 4.6% and 12.6%, respectively, over the same periods. However, the 1-month gain of 15.83% is a deceleration from the 3-month surge, which could indicate consolidation or a temporary pause in the parabolic rise before a potential continuation or pullback. Key technical support is anchored at the 52-week low of $31.83, though a more relevant near-term support level is likely around the $150-$160 zone where the stock consolidated in late April 2026. Immediate resistance is the 52-week high of $200.68; a decisive breakout above this level could signal a new leg higher, while a failure and reversal could trigger a deeper correction toward the $150 support. The stock exhibits extreme volatility with a beta of 2.112, meaning it is more than twice as volatile as the broader market, which is critical for risk management as it implies amplified moves in both directions. The recent price action, including a -2.51% decline on the last trading day, suggests potential profit-taking near all-time highs. The stock's extreme volatility is further confirmed by a maximum drawdown of -23.26% over the provided period, highlighting significant intra-trend corrections. This high beta of 2.112 necessitates careful position sizing, as the stock can experience sharp downdrafts even within a primary uptrend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) data is not provided, but the sheer magnitude of the price moves and the elevated beta suggest momentum oscillators are likely in overbought territory, warranting caution for new entries despite the powerful trend.
Beta
2.11
2.11x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-23.3%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$35-$201
Price range past year
Annual Return
+432.8%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | TTMI Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +14.9% | -0.1% |
| 3m | +114.1% | +12.0% |
| 6m | +164.3% | +8.8% |
| 1y | +432.8% | +22.9% |
| ytd | +174.8% | +8.8% |
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TTMI Fundamental Analysis
TTMI's revenue trajectory has shifted into a high-growth phase, with Q4 2025 revenue reaching $774.32 million, representing a year-over-year growth rate of 18.95%. This marks a significant acceleration from the prior-year Q4 revenue of $650.97 million, indicating a robust multi-quarter expansion driven by end-market demand. Segment data highlights the Data Center Computing segment as a primary growth driver, contributing $221.65 million in a recent period, while the Commercial segment is noted as the majority revenue generator, serving high-growth areas like automotive and medical instrumentation. This revenue surge, particularly tied to AI infrastructure, is the core of the current investment thesis. The company is solidly profitable, with Q4 2025 net income of $50.69 million and a net margin of 6.55%, a dramatic improvement from the $5.17 million net income in Q4 2024. Gross margin for the latest quarter was 20.01%, showing stability and a slight sequential improvement from 19.55% on a trailing-twelve-month basis. Operating income for Q4 2025 was $76.92 million, yielding an operating margin of 9.93%, which demonstrates effective operational leverage as sales scale. The progression from a net margin of 0.79% in Q4 2024 to over 6% currently underscores a successful turnaround in profitability. Balance sheet health is adequate, with a current ratio of 1.93 indicating sufficient short-term liquidity. The debt-to-equity ratio stands at 0.63, reflecting a moderate level of leverage that is manageable given improved profitability. However, free cash flow presents a concern; the trailing-twelve-month free cash flow is negative at -$683,000, and the latest quarterly cash flow statement shows Q4 2025 operating cash flow of $62.93 million but free cash flow of -$6.46 million due to significant capital expenditures of -$69.39 million. This heavy investment in property, plant, and equipment suggests the company is reinvesting heavily to support growth, but it limits internal funding flexibility. Return on equity (ROE) of 10.07% and return on assets (ROA) of 4.86% show decent but not exceptional returns on capital.
Quarterly Revenue
$774320000.0B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+0.18%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.20%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$-683000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is TTMI Overvalued?
Given the company's positive net income, the primary valuation metric selected is the Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio. The trailing P/E ratio is 41.17x, while the forward P/E is significantly lower at 34.23x, based on estimated EPS of $6.475. This forward discount implies the market expects strong earnings growth to bring the valuation down to a more reasonable level over the next year, pricing in the explosive growth narrative. Compared to sector averages, which are not provided in the data, a definitive industry comparison cannot be made. However, a trailing P/E of 41x is typically considered high for a manufacturing/hardware company, suggesting the market is valuing TTMI more like a high-growth tech stock due to its AI data center exposure. The Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio of 2.51x and EV/Sales of 6.55x provide additional context, with the EV/Sales multiple being particularly elevated, further underscoring premium pricing for expected future sales growth. Historically, TTMI's valuation has expanded dramatically alongside its price surge. The historical ratios data shows the trailing P/E ratio was as low as -121x (during losses) in early 2021 and 16.23x in Q1 2025. The current P/E of 41.17x is near the top of its observable historical range, indicating the market is pricing in extremely optimistic future earnings and growth expectations. This lofty historical positioning increases risk, as any disappointment in growth or margins could lead to significant multiple compression. The PEG ratio of 0.19, based on trailing metrics, suggests the stock is undervalued relative to its growth rate, but this metric is highly sensitive to the growth projection used.
PE
41.2x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range -121x~122x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
19.7x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: TTMI's financial risk profile is characterized by aggressive reinvestment and cash flow challenges. Despite soaring profitability, the company generated negative free cash flow of -$683K TTM, with Q4 2025 capex of -$69.4M consuming operating cash flow. This heavy investment is necessary to support growth but leaves the company reliant on external financing if the trend continues. While debt is moderate at a D/E of 0.63, the balance sheet's liquidity (current ratio of 1.93) could be pressured if the capex cycle extends. The primary financial risk is valuation dependency on sustained high growth; a deceleration from the current 19% YoY revenue growth rate could trigger a severe derating given the 41x trailing P/E.
Market & Competitive Risks: The stock's extreme market risk is quantified by its beta of 2.11, meaning it is highly sensitive to broader market swings and sector rotations away from high-growth, high-multiple stocks. Trading at a trailing P/E of 41.17x—near the top of its historical range—the stock is priced for perfection, leaving no margin for error. Competitive risks are inherent in the fast-evolving AI hardware space, where TTMI's PCB and assembly products could face pricing pressure or technological disruption. Macro risks include sensitivity to interest rates, as higher rates compress the present value of future growth cash flows, a significant threat for a stock valued on long-dated growth.
Worst-Case Scenario: The worst-case scenario involves a simultaneous slowdown in AI data center capital expenditure and a broader market correction. This would likely cause TTMI to miss revenue growth expectations, leading to analyst downgrades and a rapid compression of its valuation multiple toward its historical average (closer to 16x-20x P/E). Combined with its high beta, this could trigger a violent sell-off. A realistic downside target is a return to the $150 support zone, representing a -19% decline from the current $184.84, or a more severe drop toward the 52-week low of $31.83 (-83%) in a catastrophic sector-wide bust scenario, though the latter is less probable given improved fundamentals.
FAQ
The key risks are, in order of severity: 1) Valuation Compression: The stock's 41x trailing P/E leaves it vulnerable to a sharp derating if growth slows. 2) Execution & Demand Risk: The thesis depends entirely on sustained AI data center capex; a slowdown would crater revenue growth. 3) Financial Risk: Negative free cash flow (-$683K TTM) due to heavy capex raises questions about self-funding ability. 4) Market Risk: A beta of 2.11 means TTMI will fall more than twice as much as the market in a downturn, as seen in its -23% max drawdown. These risks are interconnected—a market downturn could exacerbate a growth scare, leading to a severe correction.
The 12-month forecast presents three scenarios. The base case (55% probability) sees the stock trading between $170 and $200, as it consolidates recent gains and grows into its valuation. The bull case (25% probability) targets $210-$240, requiring an acceleration in AI demand and margin expansion. The bear case (20% probability) projects a drop to $120-$150 on growth disappointment and multiple compression. The most likely outcome is the base case, assuming the company meets but does not exceed current high expectations. The key assumption is that TTMI delivers on its estimated $6.48 EPS for the forward period, supporting the forward P/E of 34x.
TTMI appears overvalued on an absolute historical basis but may be fairly valued relative to its growth trajectory. The trailing P/E of 41.17x is near the top of its historical range and high for a hardware manufacturer. However, the forward P/E of 34.23x and a PEG ratio of 0.19 (if growth is sustained) suggest the market is pricing in significant future earnings growth. The EV/Sales of 6.55x further indicates a premium valuation. The stock is not cheap, but its valuation implies the market expects the recent explosive growth (net margin from 0.8% to 6.6%) to continue. Any stumble in growth would likely make the stock overvalued quickly.
TTMI is a high-risk, high-reward investment that may be suitable for aggressive growth investors comfortable with volatility. The stock has risen 471% in a year, pricing in tremendous growth expectations. While the underlying fundamentals are strong (19% revenue growth, expanding margins), the valuation is demanding at a 41x trailing P/E. The lack of analyst consensus and negative free cash flow add risk. It could be a good buy for investors with a long-term horizon who believe the AI data center boom has years to run and are willing to tolerate a beta of 2.11. For most investors, waiting for a pullback to the $150-$160 support zone would improve the risk/reward profile.
TTMI is primarily suitable for long-term investors (3-5 year horizon) who can withstand extreme volatility to capture the potential full duration of the AI investment cycle. The stock's high beta (2.11) and valuation sensitivity make it a poor candidate for short-term trading, as news-driven swings can be severe. There is no dividend, eliminating income as a reason to hold. The investment thesis is based on multi-year structural growth in data center hardware, which requires time to play out. A minimum holding period of 12-18 months is suggested to allow for quarterly volatility and to evaluate the sustainability of the growth trajectory. Short-term traders should be aware of the stock's propensity for large drawdowns (-23% max).