TTM Technologies
TTMI
$130.08
-5.20%
TTM Technologies Inc. is a leading manufacturer of technology products, including mission systems, RF components, RF/microwave assemblies, and advanced interconnect products such as printed circuit boards (PCBs) and substrates, serving the aerospace, defense, automotive, medical, industrial, and data center markets. The company operates through three segments: A&D, Commercial, and RF&S Components, with the Commercial segment generating the majority of revenue. TTM is positioned as a key player in the high-value PCB and RF component space, benefiting from the explosive demand for AI data center infrastructure and advanced defense electronics. The current investor narrative centers on the company's record Q1 2026 results, driven by AI-related demand, and its strategic acquisition of European-based Swiss Technology Group and ILFA GmbH to expand its footprint in high-value aerospace, defense, and medical markets, while also grappling with a high valuation and recent stock price volatility.…
TTMI
TTM Technologies
$130.08
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Investment Opinion: Should I buy TTMI Today?
Rating: Buy. The thesis is that TTM is a high-growth AI infrastructure play with strong analyst support (Strong Buy, average target $214.25, 57% upside) and accelerating revenue growth (30.4% YoY). The forward P/E of 19.8x is reasonable if the company delivers on EPS estimates of $6.59, and the PEG ratio of 0.19 suggests undervaluation relative to growth.
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TTMI 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI-driven growth story is compelling, with revenue accelerating and margins improving. The valuation is high on trailing earnings, but the forward P/E suggests the market is pricing in significant growth. The main risk is that growth could slow, leading to multiple compression. I would upgrade my stance to high confidence if the company delivers another quarter of 30%+ growth and FCF turns positive. I would downgrade to neutral if revenue growth falls below 15% or if the stock breaks below $100.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on TTM Technologies's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $214.25 and implied upside of +64.7% versus the current price.
Average Target
$214.25
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+64.7%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$205 - $224
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage is limited with only 4 analysts covering the stock, but the consensus is a Strong Buy with a recommendation mean of 1.25 (where 1 is Strong Buy and 5 is Sell). The average target price is $214.25, implying a significant upside of +57.1% from the current price of $136.36. The target range is $205.00 to $224.00, with the low target still representing a 50.3% upside, indicating that even the most bearish analyst sees substantial value. The high target of $224.00 assumes continued strong growth from AI and defense demand, while the low target likely factors in potential margin compression or market volatility. Recent institutional ratings show all Buy ratings from firms like Needham, Truist, and Stifel, with no downgrades, reinforcing the bullish sentiment. The wide spread between the low and high targets (about 9.3% from the average) suggests moderate uncertainty, but the overall consensus is strongly bullish.
Bulls vs Bears: TTMI Investment Factors
The bull case is compelling, driven by 30%+ revenue growth from AI demand, improving margins, and a Strong Buy consensus with 57% upside. However, the bear case highlights a rich valuation (trailing P/E 41x), negative FCF, and extreme volatility (beta 2.16). Currently, the bull side has stronger evidence due to the accelerating growth trajectory and analyst conviction, but the key tension is whether the market's high expectations can be met. If AI demand sustains and margins expand, the stock could re-rate higher; if growth decelerates or macro conditions worsen, the premium valuation could lead to a sharp correction. The single most important factor is the sustainability of AI-driven revenue growth, which will determine if the forward P/E of 19.8x is justified.
Bullish
- Explosive AI-Driven Revenue Growth: Q1 2026 revenue surged 30.4% YoY to $846M, with sequential growth from $774M in Q4 2025 and $753M in Q3 2025, driven by AI data center demand. This acceleration is the core bull thesis, as the company is riding a multi-year AI infrastructure buildout.
- Strong Analyst Consensus and Upside: With a Strong Buy rating (1.25 mean) and an average target of $214.25, the stock offers 57.1% upside from the current price of $136.36. Even the low target of $205 implies 50.3% upside, indicating analysts see substantial value despite recent volatility.
- Improving Profitability and Margins: Gross margin expanded to 20.8% in Q1 2026 from 19.4% in Q4 2024, and operating margin reached 8.8%, up from 1.4% in Q4 2024. This operational leverage is a sign of scaling efficiency, supporting higher earnings power.
- Strategic Acquisitions Expand TAM: The acquisition of Swiss Technology Group and ILFA GmbH expands TTM's footprint in high-value European aerospace, defense, and medical markets. This aligns with the company's strategy to diversify and capture higher-margin opportunities.
Bearish
- Extremely High Trailing P/E: The trailing P/E of 41.2x is well above the historical median, indicating the market is pricing in optimistic future earnings. If growth disappoints, the stock is vulnerable to multiple compression.
- Significant Drawdown from Highs: The stock has fallen 39% from its 52-week high of $223.83, and the max drawdown is -54.05%. This volatility highlights the risk of holding a high-beta stock (2.16) that is sensitive to market sentiment and macro conditions.
- Negative Free Cash Flow: TTM's trailing twelve-month free cash flow is -$11.8M, indicating that the company is spending more than it generates. This could constrain future investments or require debt/equity financing, adding financial risk.
- High Valuation vs. Industry: The EV/Sales ratio of 4.65x is higher than the historical average, and the P/S ratio of 2.51x is above the industry norm. This premium valuation leaves little room for error and increases downside risk if growth slows.
TTMI Technical Analysis
TTMI has experienced a dramatic uptrend over the past year, with the stock price surging 215.56% over the 1-year period, far outperforming the S&P 500's 21.46% gain. The current price of $136.36 sits at approximately 61% of its 52-week range (between $39.20 low and $223.83 high), indicating a significant pullback from the highs but still well above the lows. This positioning suggests the stock is in a corrective phase after a massive rally, with the price having retreated from its peak but maintaining a strong longer-term uptrend. The 6-month price change of +38.32% confirms the underlying bullish momentum, though the stock is now trading below its recent peak.
Beta
2.16
2.16x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-54.0%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$39-$224
Price range past year
Annual Return
+187.3%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | TTMI Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -11.2% | +2.4% |
| 3m | -20.4% | +4.7% |
| 6m | +41.5% | +11.7% |
| 1y | +187.3% | +21.3% |
| ytd | +84.2% | +13.4% |
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TTMI Fundamental Analysis
TTMI's revenue trajectory is strongly accelerating, with Q1 2026 revenue of $846.0 million, up 30.42% year-over-year, and sequential growth from $774.3 million in Q4 2025 and $752.7 million in Q3 2025. The multi-quarter trend shows consistent growth from $648.7 million in Q1 2025 to the current level, driven by robust demand from AI data centers and defense applications. The company's gross margin improved to 20.78% in Q1 2026, up from 20.01% in Q4 2025 and 19.45% in Q4 2024, indicating operational leverage. Net income for Q1 2026 was $50.0 million, with a net margin of 5.91%, up from 6.55% in Q4 2025 but down from 7.05% in Q3 2025, reflecting some margin pressure from increased operating expenses. The company's profitability is solid, with EPS of $0.48 in Q1 2026, and the trailing twelve-month net income is positive, supporting a PE-based valuation.
Quarterly Revenue
$845976000.0B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+30.4%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
20.8%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$-11815000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is TTMI Overvalued?
Given that TTM has positive net income, the PE ratio is the primary valuation metric. The trailing PE is 41.16x, while the forward PE is 19.78x, indicating the market expects significant earnings growth. The gap between trailing and forward PE suggests that the market is pricing in a substantial increase in earnings, likely driven by AI-related demand and the recent acquisitions. The PEG ratio of 0.19x implies that the stock is undervalued relative to its expected growth rate, but this is based on analyst estimates that may be optimistic. Compared to the industry, TTM's PS ratio of 2.51x is lower than the historical average, but the EV/Sales of 4.65x is higher, reflecting the market's premium for its growth prospects. The stock's current valuation is at the higher end of its historical range, with the PE ratio having ranged from 7.95x in Q3 2022 to 121.56x in Q4 2024, and the current 41.16x is above the median, suggesting the market is pricing in optimistic expectations.
PE
41.2x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range 8x~64x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
19.7x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial risks are elevated due to negative free cash flow of -$11.8M TTM, which indicates the company is not self-funding its growth. The debt-to-equity ratio of 0.63 is moderate, but interest expenses of $10.6M in Q1 2026 could pressure earnings if rates stay high. Revenue concentration in the Commercial segment (majority of revenue) exposes TTM to cyclical demand from data centers and automotive, which could soften if AI capex slows. The net margin of 5.9% is thin, leaving little buffer for cost overruns or pricing pressure.
FAQ
The key risks are: 1) Financial risk from negative free cash flow (-$11.8M TTM) and moderate debt (D/E 0.63), which could limit flexibility. 2) Valuation risk from a high trailing P/E (41x) that could compress if growth disappoints. 3) Market risk from high beta (2.16), making the stock sensitive to macro downturns. 4) Company-specific risk from reliance on AI demand and potential integration issues with acquisitions. The most severe risk is a slowdown in AI spending, which could lead to a 50%+ decline from current levels.
The 12-month forecast is bullish, with a base case target of $214.25 (57% upside) and a bull case of $224 (64% upside). The bear case is $100 (27% downside), but the probability-weighted expected return is positive. The most likely scenario is the base case, where AI demand continues to drive 20-25% revenue growth, and the stock reaches the analyst average target. However, the stock is volatile, and the actual outcome will depend on the sustainability of AI spending and margin expansion.
TTMI is trading at a trailing P/E of 41.2x, which is above its historical median, indicating the market is pricing in strong future growth. However, the forward P/E of 19.8x is more reasonable, and the PEG ratio of 0.19 suggests the stock is undervalued relative to its expected earnings growth. Compared to peers, the P/S ratio of 2.51x is lower than the historical average, but the EV/Sales of 4.65x is higher, reflecting a premium for its growth prospects. Overall, the stock is fairly valued to slightly undervalued based on forward earnings, but the trailing P/E is high, reflecting the market's optimism.
TTMI is a good buy for investors with a high risk tolerance and a long-term horizon, given its strong AI-driven growth and analyst upside of 57%. However, the stock is volatile (beta 2.16) and trades at a high trailing P/E of 41x, so it is not suitable for conservative investors. The biggest downside risk is a slowdown in AI demand, which could lead to a sharp correction. For those who believe in the AI infrastructure cycle, the current price offers an attractive entry point, but position sizing should account for potential drawdowns.
TTMI is better suited for long-term investment (3-5 years) due to its high growth potential and the multi-year AI infrastructure cycle. The stock is too volatile for short-term trading, with a beta of 2.16 and recent swings of over 50%. Long-term investors can benefit from the earnings growth, but should be prepared for significant drawdowns. A minimum holding period of 3 years is recommended to ride out volatility and allow the growth story to play out.