TTM Technologies
TTMI
$189.92
+8.81%
TTM Technologies Inc is a leading manufacturer of advanced technology products, including mission systems, RF components, and printed circuit boards (PCBs), operating within the Hardware, Equipment & Parts industry. The company is a key supplier across critical end-markets, with a distinct competitive identity as a vertically integrated provider of complex interconnect solutions for high-reliability applications in aerospace, defense, and commercial sectors. The current investor narrative is overwhelmingly driven by explosive demand from AI data centers, as evidenced by recent record quarterly results and a stock surge of over 15% on a single day in April 2026, positioning TTMI as a direct beneficiary of the AI infrastructure build-out.…
TTMI
TTM Technologies
$189.92
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TTMI 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on TTM Technologies's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $246.90 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$246.90
1 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
1
covering this stock
Price Range
$152 - $247
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage appears limited, with data indicating only one analyst providing estimates, which is insufficient to derive a meaningful consensus. The single analyst estimates an average EPS of $5.72 and average revenue of $4.82 billion. The lack of a broad analyst consensus, target price, and recommendation distribution suggests this is a stock with limited traditional institutional research coverage, which is common for small to mid-cap companies and can lead to higher volatility and less efficient price discovery. The institutional ratings data shows a pattern of consistent 'Buy' reiterations from a handful of firms like Needham, B. Riley Securities, and Truist Securities throughout late 2025 and early 2026. This steady bullish sentiment from the covering analysts aligns with the company's strong fundamental performance. However, the absence of a published target price range from these firms in the provided data prevents an analysis of high and low target scenarios. The sustained 'Buy' ratings in the face of the stock's massive rally indicate these analysts believe the growth story remains intact.
Bulls vs Bears: TTMI Investment Factors
The bull case for TTMI, centered on its transformational role in the AI infrastructure build-out and dramatic earnings acceleration, currently holds stronger evidence, as reflected in its staggering price performance and fundamental improvements. However, the bear case presents a formidable counter-argument rooted in extreme valuation, cash flow concerns, and technical overextension. The single most important tension in the investment debate is whether the company's explosive growth in AI-related revenue can continue at a pace sufficient to justify and sustain its historically high valuation multiples before potential multiple compression or a macroeconomic setback triggers a severe correction.
Bullish
- Explosive AI-Driven Revenue Growth: Q4 2025 revenue grew 18.95% YoY to $774.32 million, accelerating from a multi-quarter sequential climb. The Data Center Computing segment, a direct AI beneficiary, contributed $221.65 million, validating the core growth narrative.
- Dramatic Profitability Transformation: Net income surged to $50.69 million in Q4 2025 from $5.17 million a year ago, with net margin expanding to 6.55% from 0.79%. This demonstrates significant operating leverage as revenue scales, moving the company to sustainable profitability.
- Extreme Momentum & Market Leadership: The stock has gained 475.09% over the past year and 82.30% over the past three months, vastly outperforming the SPY. This momentum is supported by record quarterly results and a 15% single-day surge in April 2026 on strong AI data center demand.
- Strong Institutional & Analyst Conviction: Covering analysts from Needham, B. Riley, and Truist have consistently reiterated 'Buy' ratings throughout the rally. A major hedge fund initiated an $11.8 million position, signaling institutional belief in the long-term AI infrastructure thesis.
Bearish
- Extreme Valuation & Historical Highs: The stock trades at a trailing P/E of 41.17x and a forward P/E of 33.25x, near the top of its own historical range. This premium pricing leaves no room for error and makes the stock vulnerable to multiple compression if growth decelerates.
- Negative Free Cash Flow Despite Growth: TTM free cash flow is negative at -$683,000, and Q4 2025 saw negative FCF of -$6.46 million due to high capital expenditures ($69.39M). This aggressive reinvestment, while funding growth, raises questions about near-term cash generation and financial flexibility.
- Extreme Volatility & High Beta Risk: With a beta of 2.112, the stock is more than twice as volatile as the market, explaining its -23.26% maximum drawdown within the last 180 days despite the uptrend. This high volatility makes it a risky holding for non-speculative investors.
- Limited Analyst Coverage & Price Discovery: Only one analyst provides estimates, preventing a robust consensus target price. Limited coverage can lead to less efficient price discovery and heightened volatility, as the stock is driven more by narrative than broad fundamental scrutiny.
TTMI Technical Analysis
The stock is in a powerful, sustained uptrend, evidenced by a staggering 1-year price change of +475.09%. As of the latest close of $167.35, the stock is trading at approximately 93% of its 52-week high of $180.00, indicating it is near the peak of its recent range and reflecting extreme momentum, though it also signals potential overextension and vulnerability to a pullback. Recent momentum remains exceptionally strong but shows signs of volatility; the 1-month gain of +43.52% and 3-month gain of +82.30% both significantly outpace the broader market (SPY up 5.6% and 8.42%, respectively), yet the stock's beta of 2.112 confirms it is more than twice as volatile as the market, which explains the sharp intra-period swings visible in the price data. Key technical support is anchored at the 52-week low of $28.12, though given the parabolic move, more relevant near-term support likely resides around the $90-$100 level where the stock consolidated in Q1 2026. Immediate resistance is the 52-week high of $180.00; a decisive breakout above this level could signal a continuation of the bullish trend, while a failure and reversal could trigger a significant correction given the extended valuation. The stock's extreme beta of 2.112 means it experiences amplified moves relative to the market, a critical factor for risk management, as evidenced by a maximum drawdown of -23.26% within the provided 180-day period despite the overall upward trajectory.
Beta
2.11
2.11x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-23.3%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$28-$192
Price range past year
Annual Return
+554.0%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | TTMI Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +49.9% | +4.8% |
| 3m | +76.0% | +8.2% |
| 6m | +223.0% | +13.1% |
| 1y | +554.0% | +27.9% |
| ytd | +169.0% | +9.3% |
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TTMI Fundamental Analysis
Revenue growth has accelerated dramatically, with the most recent Q4 2025 revenue of $774.32 million representing a year-over-year increase of 18.95%. This marks a significant improvement from the prior-year Q4 revenue of $650.97 million and demonstrates a multi-quarter acceleration, as quarterly revenues have climbed sequentially from $648.67 million in Q1 2025 to the current level, driven by robust end-market demand. Segment data, though incomplete, highlights Data Center Computing as the largest disclosed contributor at $221.65 million, underscoring the AI-driven growth narrative that is fueling investor enthusiasm. Profitability has undergone a remarkable transformation, with net income for Q4 2025 reaching $50.69 million, compared to a mere $5.17 million in the year-ago quarter. Gross margin for the quarter was 20.01%, showing stability and a slight sequential improvement, while the net margin expanded to 6.55% from a depressed 0.79% a year ago. This margin expansion, coupled with a trailing twelve-month net margin of 6.11%, indicates the company is successfully leveraging its revenue growth into substantially higher earnings, moving decisively toward sustainable profitability. The balance sheet shows moderate leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.63, and strong liquidity evidenced by a current ratio of 1.93. However, free cash flow presents a mixed picture: while quarterly operating cash flow was a healthy $62.93 million in Q4 2025, capital expenditures of $69.39 million resulted in negative free cash flow of -$6.46 million for the quarter, and the TTM free cash flow is also negative at -$683,000. This suggests the company is aggressively reinvesting in its business to support growth, which is currently funded through operating cash flow and its existing cash balance of $501.23 million, rather than relying on additional external debt.
Quarterly Revenue
$774320000.0B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+0.18%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.20%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$-683000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is TTMI Overvalued?
Given the company's positive and growing net income, the primary valuation metric selected is the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio. The trailing PE ratio is 41.17x, while the forward PE (based on estimated EPS of $5.72) is 33.25x. The forward multiple being lower than the trailing multiple implies the market expects significant earnings growth in the coming year, which aligns with the explosive revenue trends and analyst estimates. Comparing to industry averages is challenging as specific sector multiples are not provided in the data. However, using the available valuation data, we can observe that the stock trades at a Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio of 2.51x and an EV/EBITDA of 19.66x. Without a direct peer benchmark, the premium is implied by the high growth expectations, particularly its positioning in the AI data center supply chain, which the market is currently rewarding with elevated multiples. Historically, the stock's valuation has expanded dramatically alongside its price surge. The current trailing PE of 41.17x is near the top of its own historical range, as seen in the historical ratios data where the PE ratio was as low as -121.08x during unprofitable periods and averaged in the teens to twenties during 2024. Trading near historical valuation highs suggests the market is pricing in highly optimistic expectations for continued growth and margin expansion, leaving little room for execution missteps.
PE
41.2x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range -121x~122x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
19.7x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: TTMI's primary financial risk is its negative free cash flow profile, with TTM FCF at -$683k and Q4 2025 FCF at -$6.46M, driven by capital expenditures ($69.39M in Q4) that exceed operating cash flow ($62.93M). While this funds growth, it limits financial flexibility and raises dependency on its $501M cash balance. Furthermore, the company's net margin, though improved to 6.55%, remains moderate, and any input cost inflation or pricing pressure could quickly erode the hard-won profitability gains. Revenue concentration risk is emerging, with the AI data center narrative becoming a dominant driver of both growth and investor sentiment.
Market & Competitive Risks: The paramount market risk is valuation compression. Trading at a forward P/E of 33.25x and near its own historical valuation highs, TTMI is priced for perfection. Any disappointment in quarterly growth rates, a sector rotation away from high-multiple AI stocks, or a rise in interest rates (as hinted in recent Fed commentary on oil price shocks) could trigger a severe derating. Its beta of 2.112 confirms extreme sensitivity to market swings. Competitively, while it is a key supplier now, the PCB and interconnect market is competitive, and technological shifts or customer insourcing could threaten its positioning in the lucrative AI supply chain.
Worst-Case Scenario: The worst-case scenario involves a 'growth scare' coinciding with a broader market downturn. A quarterly revenue miss or guidance reduction would shatter the high-growth narrative, leading to simultaneous earnings downgrades and multiple compression. This could be exacerbated by a macro shock that curbs data center capital expenditures. In this adverse scenario, the stock could realistically re-test its key consolidation support near $90-$100, representing a downside of 40-46% from the current price of $167.35. A fall to the 52-week low of $28.12 is highly improbable given the fundamental transformation, but a 35-50% correction from peak levels is a plausible risk for a stock with this volatility profile.