TTM Technologies
TTMI
$191.49
-9.06%
TTM Technologies Inc is a leading manufacturer of advanced technology products, including printed circuit boards (PCBs), mission systems, RF components, and interconnect solutions, operating within the Hardware, Equipment & Parts industry. The company is a key supplier to high-growth and mission-critical sectors, with its business segmented into Aerospace & Defense, Commercial (which generates the majority of revenue), and RF&S Components. The current investor narrative is overwhelmingly driven by explosive demand from AI data centers, which has propelled record quarterly results and significant stock appreciation, positioning TTMI as a direct beneficiary of the AI infrastructure build-out, while recent strategic acquisitions aim to expand its European footprint in aerospace, defense, and medical markets.…
TTMI
TTM Technologies
$191.49
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy TTMI Today?
Rating & Thesis: Hold. TTMI presents a compelling growth story but at a price that fully reflects, and arguably exceeds, its near-term potential, making the risk/reward unfavorable for new capital at current levels. The unanimous 'Buy' analyst sentiment and implied growth from a forward P/E of 38.99x are already baked into the stock trading at 94% of its 52-week high.
Supporting Evidence: The valuation is stretched, with a trailing P/E of 41.16x and Price-to-Sales of 2.51x, demanding sustained high growth. While Q4 revenue growth of 18.95% YoY and net margin expansion to 6.55% are impressive, they must continue to justify the premium. The stock's 437% one-year gain and beta of 2.11 indicate extreme momentum and volatility, not stability. Furthermore, negative TTM free cash flow shows the growth is capital-intensive, not yet generating shareholder cash.
Risks & Conditions: The two biggest risks are a growth deceleration that triggers P/E compression and a broad market sell-off amplified by the stock's high beta. This Hold rating would upgrade to a Buy if the stock experiences a significant pullback (e.g., 20-30%) to a forward P/E closer to 25-30x, providing a better margin of safety. It would downgrade to a Sell if quarterly revenue growth decelerates below 10% or net margins contract sequentially. Relative to its own history and the likely sector average, TTMI is overvalued, trading at peak multiples on optimistic future expectations.
Sign up to view all
TTMI 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is neutral due to the extreme tension between TTMI's powerful fundamental momentum and its fully valued, high-risk stock price. The 437% one-year gain has likely front-run much of the near-term optimism. While the AI tailwind is real and margins are expanding, the probability of further major upside from here is balanced by the significant downside risk if growth merely moderates. Confidence is medium because the limited analyst coverage (only 2) adds uncertainty to forward estimates. The stance would upgrade to bullish on a 20%+ pullback that improves the risk/reward, or downgrade to bearish on evidence of slowing order growth in the Data Center Computing segment.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on TTM Technologies's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $248.94 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$248.94
2 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
2
covering this stock
Price Range
$153 - $249
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage for TTMI appears limited, with only 2 analysts providing estimates for revenue and EPS, indicating this is a smaller-cap stock with less institutional research focus. The consensus sentiment, inferred from recent institutional ratings, is strongly bullish, with all recent actions from firms like Needham, B. Riley, and Truist Securities being 'Buy' or reiterations of 'Buy' ratings. The average estimated EPS for the forward period is $6.475, with a tight range between $6.42 and $6.53. The target price range is not explicitly provided in the data, but the high level of recent 'Buy' ratings and the substantial stock price appreciation suggest analyst targets have likely been rising. The wide dispersion in the stock's actual trading range—from a 52-week low of $39.2 to a high of $223.83—signals extremely high uncertainty and volatility in market sentiment. The consistent pattern of 'Buy' ratings without downgrades over the past several months indicates strong analyst conviction in the near-term growth story, particularly tied to AI data center demand. However, the limited number of covering analysts means price discovery may be less efficient and the stock could be more susceptible to sharp moves on company-specific news.
Bulls vs Bears: TTMI Investment Factors
The investment debate for TTMI is a classic clash between explosive, AI-fueled fundamental growth and an extreme valuation that demands perfection. The bull case, currently supported by stronger evidence from record revenue growth, margin expansion, and technical momentum, hinges on the sustainability of the AI infrastructure build-out. The bear case warns of valuation compression should growth decelerate even slightly. The single most important tension is whether TTMI's 18.95% YoY revenue growth and 6.55% net margin can be sustained long enough to grow into its 41x P/E multiple, or if the current price already reflects peak optimism, setting the stage for a painful correction.
Bullish
- Explosive Revenue & Profit Growth: Q4 2025 revenue grew 18.95% YoY to $774.32M, while net income surged from $5.17M to $50.69M, a tenfold increase. This dramatic margin expansion, with net margin rising from 0.79% to 6.55%, signals a powerful operational turnaround and successful scaling.
- Direct AI Infrastructure Beneficiary: The company is a key supplier to AI data centers, with its Data Center Computing segment generating $221.65M in Q4. This positions TTMI at the epicenter of a multi-year capital expenditure cycle, driving record quarterly results and justifying its premium valuation.
- Strong Technical Momentum: The stock is in a powerful uptrend, up 437.17% over the past year and 193.60% over six months. It trades at 94% of its 52-week high ($223.83), demonstrating sustained buying pressure and momentum that has consistently outperformed the S&P 500.
- Strategic Expansion via Acquisition: The recent acquisition of Swiss Technology Group and ILFA GmbH strategically expands TTMI's European footprint in high-value aerospace, defense, and medical markets. This diversifies revenue streams and reduces over-reliance on the cyclical commercial segment.
Bearish
- Extreme Valuation & High Expectations: TTMI trades at a trailing P/E of 41.16x and a forward P/E of 38.99x, a significant premium to the hardware sector. This valuation is near its historical peak, pricing in flawless execution of high growth and leaving no room for disappointment.
- Negative Free Cash Flow & Heavy Capex: The company generated negative free cash flow of -$6.46M in Q4 2025 and -$683K TTM, as heavy capital expenditures ($69.39M in Q4) outpace operating cash flow. This indicates it is reinvesting all profits for growth, offering no cash return to shareholders.
- Extreme Volatility & High Beta: With a beta of 2.11, TTMI is more than twice as volatile as the broader market. This high-risk profile makes it susceptible to severe drawdowns during market corrections, as evidenced by its -23.26% max drawdown in the provided period.
- Revenue Concentration in Cyclical AI: While the AI data center boom is a current tailwind, it represents a cyclical and competitive end-market. A slowdown in AI infrastructure spending or market saturation could disproportionately impact TTMI's growth, given its heavy reliance on this segment.
TTMI Technical Analysis
The stock is in a powerful, sustained uptrend, evidenced by a staggering 1-year price change of +437.17%. As of the latest close at $210.57, the price is trading at approximately 94% of its 52-week high of $223.83, indicating it is near its peak and suggesting strong momentum but also potential overextension and vulnerability to a pullback. The 6-month price change of +193.60% and year-to-date change of +198.22% further confirm the intensity of this bullish trend, with the stock consistently trading in the upper echelon of its annual range. Recent momentum remains robust but shows signs of volatility; the 3-month price change is an impressive +120.56%, significantly outpacing the S&P 500's +15.8%, while the 1-month gain of +6.92% also beats the market's -2.17% decline. However, this short-term momentum is a deceleration from the explosive multi-month gains, and the price action shows high volatility with a beta of 2.11, meaning TTMI is more than twice as volatile as the broader market, which is critical for risk assessment. Key technical levels are the 52-week high of $223.83 acting as immediate resistance and the 52-week low of $39.2 providing distant, psychological support. A decisive breakout above $224 would signal a continuation of the powerful uptrend, while a breakdown below recent support near $167 (the May low) could indicate a deeper correction is underway. The stock's extreme beta of 2.11 underscores its high-risk, high-reward profile, necessitating careful position sizing given its propensity for large swings relative to the market.
Beta
2.11
2.11x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-23.3%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$39-$224
Price range past year
Annual Return
+380.4%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | TTMI Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +0.4% | -3.6% |
| 3m | +100.6% | +15.3% |
| 6m | +167.0% | +6.1% |
| 1y | +380.4% | +18.6% |
| ytd | +171.2% | +6.9% |
Bobby - Your AI Investment Partner
Get real-time data, AI-driven personalized investment analysis to make smarter investment decisions
TTMI Fundamental Analysis
Revenue growth has accelerated dramatically, with Q4 2025 revenue of $774.32 million representing a year-over-year increase of 18.95%. This marks a significant improvement from the prior-year Q4 revenue of $650.97 million, and the multi-quarter trend shows sequential growth from $648.67 million in Q1 2025 to the Q4 peak, driven by strong demand across segments, particularly from AI data centers within the Commercial segment, which contributed $221.65 million from Data Center Computing alone. Profitability has improved substantially, with the company reporting net income of $50.69 million in Q4 2025, compared to just $5.17 million in Q4 2024. The gross margin for the quarter was 20.01%, and the net margin expanded to 6.55%, up from a meager 0.79% a year ago. This margin expansion trajectory is clear, with operating income rising from $9.03 million in Q4 2024 to $76.92 million in the latest quarter, indicating a successful operational turnaround and scaling of profitable growth. The balance sheet shows moderate financial leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.63, and strong liquidity evidenced by a current ratio of 1.93. However, free cash flow generation has been inconsistent; while operating cash flow for Q4 2025 was a healthy $62.93 million, capital expenditures of $69.39 million resulted in negative free cash flow of -$6.46 million for the quarter. The trailing twelve-month free cash flow is also negative at -$683,000, suggesting the company is currently reinvesting heavily to support growth rather than generating surplus cash for shareholders, which is typical for a firm in a high-growth investment phase.
Quarterly Revenue
$774320000.0B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+0.18%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.20%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$-683000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
Open an Account, get $2 TSLA now!
Valuation Analysis: Is TTMI Overvalued?
Given the company's positive net income of $50.69 million in the latest quarter, the primary valuation metric selected is the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio. The trailing PE ratio is 41.16x, while the forward PE is 38.99x, based on estimated EPS of $6.475. The modest gap between trailing and forward multiples suggests the market expects continued, but already priced-in, earnings growth. Compared to industry averages, TTMI's valuation appears elevated. Its trailing PE of 41.16x and Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio of 2.51x are likely at a significant premium to the broader hardware sector, which often trades at lower multiples. This premium is currently justified by the market based on TTMI's explosive revenue growth rate of 18.95% YoY and its strategic positioning within the high-demand AI infrastructure ecosystem, though it leaves little room for execution missteps. Historically, the stock's valuation has expanded dramatically alongside its price surge. The current trailing PE of 41.16x is near the top of its observable historical range, far above the 16.23x seen in Q1 2025 and the 22.96x from Q4 2023. Trading near historical valuation highs indicates the market is pricing in very optimistic expectations for sustained high growth and margin expansion, making the stock sensitive to any negative revisions in its growth trajectory.
PE
41.2x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range -121x~122x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
19.7x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks center on the company's heavy investment phase and valuation sensitivity. While profitability has improved dramatically, negative free cash flow (-$683K TTM) indicates the company is consuming cash to fund growth, increasing reliance on external financing or internal cash generation. The debt-to-equity ratio of 0.63 shows moderate leverage, but the primary risk is margin pressure; any failure to maintain the recent net margin expansion from 0.79% to 6.55% would severely impact earnings growth and jeopardize the high P/E multiple of 41.16x.
Market & Competitive Risks are pronounced due to TTMI's premium valuation and sector cyclicality. Trading at a trailing P/E of 41.16x and PS of 2.51x, likely well above hardware sector peers, the stock faces significant valuation compression risk if growth stock multiples contract or if AI hype diminishes. The beta of 2.11 confirms extreme sensitivity to broader market movements. Furthermore, the Commercial segment's reliance on AI data center demand, while a current tailwind, exposes TTMI to rapid technological shifts and intense competition from larger PCB and component manufacturers.
Worst-Case Scenario involves a simultaneous slowdown in AI infrastructure spending and a broader market downturn. This could trigger missed earnings estimates, leading to multiple rapid analyst downgrades. Given the stock's high beta and extended valuation, a severe de-rating could occur, potentially sending the price back towards its 52-week low of $39.20. From the current price of $210.57, this represents a catastrophic downside of approximately -81%. A more realistic, yet severe, bear case might see a 50-60% correction to the $80-$100 range, aligning with a normalization of its P/E towards the low 20s, still representing a loss of over -50% from current levels.
FAQ
The key risks are, in order of severity: 1) Valuation Compression: The high P/E of 41x is vulnerable to de-rating if growth slows. 2) Cyclical Demand: Heavy reliance on AI data center spending, a potentially cyclical and hype-driven market. 3) Financial Risk: Negative free cash flow (-$683K TTM) indicates heavy reinvestment needs without cash returns. 4) Volatility Risk: A beta of 2.11 means the stock will fall more than twice as hard as the market in a downturn, as seen in its -23.26% max drawdown.
The 12-month forecast is highly bifurcated, reflecting the stock's volatility. The base case (50% probability) sees the stock trading between $180 and $220 as it digests its massive gains. The bull case (25% probability) targets $240-$270 on stronger-than-expected AI demand. The bear case (25% probability) warns of a drop to $90-$140 if growth disappoints and multiples contract. The most likely scenario is the base case, assuming current growth rates moderate but do not collapse.
TTMI is overvalued relative to its historical norms and likely overvalued compared to the broader hardware sector. It trades at a trailing P/E of 41.16x and a forward P/E of 38.99x, which is near the top of its observable historical range and a significant premium to typical industrial or technology hardware multiples. This valuation implies the market expects sustained high revenue growth (~19% YoY) and continued margin expansion to be maintained indefinitely, leaving little room for error.
TTMI is not a good buy at its current price of $210.57 for most investors. While the underlying AI growth story is compelling, the stock's 437% one-year surge and premium valuation (P/E 41x) have likely exhausted near-term upside, embedding extremely high expectations. The risk/reward is unfavorable, with significant downside risk (-50% or more) if growth moderates, as indicated by its high beta of 2.11. It could become a good buy for aggressive investors only after a substantial pullback that improves the margin of safety.
TTMI is unsuitable for short-term trading for all but the most sophisticated traders due to its extreme volatility (beta 2.11). For long-term investors, it is a speculative holding whose thesis depends on a multi-year AI investment cycle. A minimum holding period of 3-5 years is suggested to potentially ride out volatility and see if the company can grow into its valuation. However, given its current overextended price, long-term investors should wait for a better entry point rather than buying at the peak.