VRTX

Vertex Pharmaceuticals

$442.96

-0.87%
Jun 8, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Vertex Pharmaceuticals is a global biotechnology company focused on discovering and developing small-molecule drugs for serious diseases, primarily operating in the cystic fibrosis (CF) market where its therapies are the global standard of care. The company is a dominant market leader in CF and has successfully diversified its portfolio into gene-editing therapies for blood disorders and non-opioid pain management. The current investor narrative is driven by the successful Phase 3 trial results for its new kidney drug, which positions it as a potential best-in-class therapy, and the ongoing commercial launches of Casgevy and Journavx, which are critical to sustaining growth beyond its maturing CF franchise.

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VRTX 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $442.96
Average Target $442.96
High Target $509.40399999999994
Low Target $376.51599999999996

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Vertex Pharmaceuticals's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $575.85 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$575.85

12 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

12

covering this stock

Price Range

$354 - $576

Analyst target range

Buy
3 (25%)
Hold
6 (50%)
Sell
3 (25%)

Vertex is covered by at least 12 analysts, with recent institutional ratings showing a strong bullish bias, including upgrades to 'Buy' and reiterated 'Overweight' or 'Outperform' ratings. The consensus sentiment is positive, anchored by the successful kidney drug trial news in March 2026, which analysts see as a major value-creating event. While specific average target price and range data are not provided in the dataset, the pattern of recent analyst actions and the company's market cap of ~$116 billion indicate high institutional interest and coverage; a wide target price range would reflect debates over the commercial uptake of new launches like Casgevy and the kidney drug's future market share, while a tight range would signal stronger conviction in the core CF business's stability.

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VRTX Technical Analysis

Vertex is in a sustained uptrend over the past year, with the stock price up 13.4% from a year ago, though it has recently pulled back from its 52-week high of $507.92. Currently trading at $441.74, the stock sits at approximately 30% of its 52-week range ($362.50 to $507.92), indicating it is much closer to its yearly lows than its highs, which may present a value opportunity after a significant correction. Recent short-term momentum shows a stark divergence from the longer-term trend; the stock is up 4.10% over the past month but down 3.27% over the past three months, suggesting recent gains are a tentative recovery within a broader period of consolidation and weakness. The stock's beta of 0.30 indicates it is 70% less volatile than the broader market (SPY), which is unusually low for a biotech and reflects its status as a profitable, cash-generative leader rather than a speculative development-stage company. Key technical levels are clear, with immediate support at the 52-week low of $362.50 and resistance at the recent high of $507.92; a sustained break above $500 would signal a resumption of the primary uptrend, while a breakdown below $360 would indicate a more severe bearish shift.

Beta

0.31

0.31x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-26.7%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$363-$508

Price range past year

Annual Return

-1.7%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodVRTX ReturnS&P 500
1m+3.1%+0.2%
3m-11.3%+9.2%
6m-0.4%+7.5%
1y-1.7%+23.4%
ytd-2.0%+8.4%

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VRTX Fundamental Analysis

Vertex's revenue trajectory remains solidly positive, with Q4 2025 revenue of $3.23 billion representing a 10.8% year-over-year growth rate, continuing a multi-quarter trend of high-single to low-double digit expansion. The growth is primarily driven by its flagship CF therapy, TRIKAFTA/KAFTRIO, which contributed $2.57 billion in the latest period, alongside newer products like ALYFTREK ($380 million). The company is highly profitable, with Q4 2025 net income of $1.19 billion and a robust gross margin of 85.56%, reflecting the premium pricing and manufacturing efficiency of its CF portfolio. Profitability metrics are strong and stable, with a net margin of 32.74% and an operating margin of 39.43%, though investors monitor R&D spend for future pipeline growth. Vertex's balance sheet is exceptionally healthy, featuring a strong current ratio of 2.90, a minimal debt-to-equity ratio of 0.21, and substantial free cash flow of $3.19 billion (TTM), providing ample internal resources to fund clinical trials, business development, and share repurchases without financial strain.

Quarterly Revenue

$3.2B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+0.10%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.85%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$3.2B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

ALYFTREK
Manufactured Product, Other
TRIKAFTA/KAFTRIO

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Valuation Analysis: Is VRTX Overvalued?

Given Vertex's substantial positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio. The stock trades at a trailing PE of 29.32x and a forward PE of 20.57x based on analyst estimates; the forward multiple's discount to the trailing figure implies the market expects significant earnings growth. Compared to the broader biotechnology sector, Vertex's trailing PE of 29.32x likely commands a premium, justified by its industry-leading profitability, durable CF cash flows, and successful pipeline diversification away from a single franchise. Historically, Vertex's current trailing PE of 29.32x sits above its own multi-year average, which has often ranged in the low-to-mid 20s, suggesting the stock is trading at the higher end of its historical valuation band, pricing in successful execution on its new kidney disease and other pipeline catalysts.

PE

29.3x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Low-End

5-Year PE Range -8x~195x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

23.1x

Enterprise Value Multiple