Alnylam Pharmaceuticals
ALNY
$236.22
+3.02%
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals is a biotechnology company focused on RNA interference (RNAi) therapeutics, with commercial products including Onpattro, Amvuttra, Givlaari, and Oxlumo, as well as partnered products like Leqvio and Qfitlia. As a pioneer and leader in RNAi, Alnylam has established a robust platform that targets genetically defined diseases, positioning it as a key player in the precision medicine space. The current investor narrative centers on the company's transition to profitability, driven by strong revenue growth from its commercial portfolio and pipeline expansion into large markets such as cardiovascular and neurological diseases, despite recent stock volatility and a significant drawdown from its 52-week high.…
ALNY
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals
$236.22
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Investment Opinion: Should I buy ALNY Today?
Based on the analysis, ALNY is rated a 'Buy' with a thesis that the company's explosive revenue growth and transition to profitability are not fully reflected in the current stock price. The analyst consensus is 'Buy' with an average target price of $370.2, implying a 56.7% upside. The forward PE of 18.8x is attractive for a company growing revenue at 96.4% YoY, and the high gross margins of 81.8% provide a solid foundation for future earnings growth.
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ALNY 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is neutral with medium confidence. The company's fundamentals are strong, with explosive revenue growth and a recent move to profitability, but the stock's technical weakness and high valuation create significant uncertainty. The forward PE of 18.8x suggests the market is pricing in substantial earnings growth, which is plausible given the current trajectory. However, the stock's 49.5% decline over the past year indicates that investors are worried about sustainability. The AI stance would upgrade to bullish if the stock stabilizes above $300 and revenue growth continues above 80% YoY, or if the company provides strong guidance for the next year. It would downgrade to bearish if revenue growth decelerates below 40% YoY or if the company reports a net loss in the next two quarters.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Alnylam Pharmaceuticals's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $370.20 and implied upside of +56.7% versus the current price.
Average Target
$370.20
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+56.7%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$230 - $536
Analyst target range
The target price range spans from a low of $230.00 to a high of $536.00, with the high target suggesting a potential 127% upside, likely assuming successful pipeline developments and market expansion. The low target is slightly below the current price, implying a modest downside risk. The wide spread between low and high targets (over 130% difference) reflects high uncertainty about the company's future, driven by clinical trial outcomes and competitive dynamics. Recent institutional ratings show no major downgrades, with most actions being reiterations of Buy or Outperform, indicating that analysts remain confident despite the stock's recent decline.
Bulls vs Bears: ALNY Investment Factors
Alnylam presents a classic high-risk, high-reward investment. The bull case is anchored by explosive revenue growth (96.4% YoY), a successful transition to profitability, and strong analyst conviction with a 56.7% upside to the average target. However, the bear case is equally compelling, with a 49.5% stock decline, extreme valuation metrics, and high debt levels. The most critical tension is whether the company can sustain its growth trajectory and margin expansion to justify the current valuation. If revenue growth continues at a rapid pace and profitability improves, the stock could recover significantly; conversely, any slowdown or clinical setback could lead to further downside. Currently, the bearish technicals and valuation concerns outweigh the bullish fundamentals, making the stock a speculative buy for risk-tolerant investors.
Bullish
- Explosive Revenue Growth: Q1 2026 revenue surged 96.4% YoY to $1.17B, up from $594M in Q1 2025, driven by strong product sales. This acceleration demonstrates robust commercial execution and market adoption of its RNAi therapeutics.
- Transition to Profitability: The company achieved net income of $206M in Q1 2026, a dramatic turnaround from a net loss of $57M in Q1 2025. This profitability shift is a key milestone, supporting a forward PE of 18.8x, which is attractive for a high-growth biotech.
- High Gross Margins: Gross margin stands at 81.8% (Q1 2026), reflecting the scalable nature of RNAi platform and efficient manufacturing. This high margin provides a strong foundation for future profitability and cash flow generation.
- Strong Analyst Conviction: With 26 analysts, the consensus rating is 'Buy' and the average target price is $370.2, implying a 56.7% upside from the current price of $236.22. The high target of $536 suggests a potential 127% upside, indicating significant optimism.
Bearish
- Severe Stock Decline: ALNY is down 49.5% over the past year, while the S&P 500 gained 20.5%, underperforming by nearly 70 percentage points. The stock sits at 47.7% of its 52-week range, reflecting persistent selling pressure and bearish sentiment.
- Extreme Valuation Concerns: The trailing PE is 166.4x, and the PS ratio is 14.0x, both extremely high. Even with a forward PE of 18.8x, this implies the market expects massive earnings growth, which may not materialize if revenue growth decelerates.
- High Debt Levels: Debt-to-equity ratio is 1.62, indicating significant leverage. This financial risk could strain cash flows, especially if revenue growth slows or clinical trials face setbacks, potentially limiting financial flexibility.
- Negative Relative Strength: Relative strength is deeply negative across all timeframes, with 1-year relative strength at -69.96%. This indicates the stock is in a strong downtrend, and momentum could continue to work against investors.
ALNY Technical Analysis
ALNY is in a pronounced downtrend, with the stock down 49.5% over the past year, significantly underperforming the S&P 500, which gained 20.5% over the same period. The current price of $236.22 sits at 47.7% of its 52-week range (between $197.81 and $495.55), indicating that the stock is trading near the lower end of its range, reflecting persistent selling pressure and a bearish sentiment. This positioning suggests that the market is pricing in substantial negative news, but it could also present a value opportunity if the fundamental outlook stabilizes.
Beta
0.28
0.28x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-58.2%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$198-$496
Price range past year
Annual Return
-49.5%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | ALNY Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -11.5% | +3.6% |
| 3m | -20.6% | +2.7% |
| 6m | -29.7% | +11.4% |
| 1y | -49.5% | +18.7% |
| ytd | -41.0% | +12.3% |
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ALNY Fundamental Analysis
Revenue has grown dramatically, with the most recent quarter (Q1 2026) reporting $1.17 billion, a 96.4% year-over-year increase, up from $594 million in Q1 2025. This growth is driven by strong product sales, particularly Givlaari and Onpattro, which contributed $74.4 million and $20.5 million respectively in the latest quarter. The multi-quarter trend shows accelerating growth, with revenue rising from $594 million in Q1 2025 to $774 million in Q2 2025, $1.25 billion in Q3 2025, and $1.10 billion in Q4 2025, indicating a robust commercial execution.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.2B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+96.4%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
81.9%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$641338000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is ALNY Overvalued?
Given that ALNY is profitable (net income of $206 million in Q1 2026), the PE ratio is the primary valuation metric. The trailing PE is 166.4x, while the forward PE is 18.8x, a massive gap that implies the market expects a significant earnings increase in the next year, likely due to continued revenue growth and margin expansion. This forward PE is much lower than the trailing, suggesting that the market is pricing in a substantial improvement in profitability, which is supported by the company's recent earnings trajectory.
PE
166.4x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range 38x~71x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
81.9x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial risks are substantial. Alnylam carries a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.62, indicating high leverage that could strain cash flows if revenue growth falters. Although the company turned profitable in Q1 2026 with net income of $206M, this is a recent development, and the trailing PE of 166.4x implies the market is pricing in aggressive future earnings growth. The company's cash flow from operations is positive, but free cash flow TTM is $641M, which is modest relative to its market cap of $52B. Any unexpected increase in R&D spending or operating expenses could pressure margins and delay the path to sustained profitability.