AMPX

Amprius Technologies, Inc.

$11.72

-10.47%
Jul 7, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Amprius Technologies, Inc. produces silicon anodes for high-energy-density lithium-ion batteries, serving the aviation, electric vehicle (EV), and light electric vehicle (LEV) industries. As a niche player in advanced battery technology, it differentiates itself with a silicon anode that directly replaces graphite in traditional lithium-ion batteries. The current investor narrative centers on the company's rapid revenue growth, driven by expanding aviation and EV applications, alongside a sharp stock price decline in recent months that has raised questions about valuation sustainability and near-term profitability.

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AMPX 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $11.72
Average Target $11.72
High Target $13.478
Low Target $9.962

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Amprius Technologies, Inc.'s 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $15.24 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$15.24

3 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

3

covering this stock

Price Range

$9 - $15

Analyst target range

Buy
0 (0%)
Hold
1 (33%)
Sell
2 (67%)

Three analysts cover AMPX, with a consensus Buy rating (all rate it Buy or Overweight). The average target price is not explicitly provided, but based on the estimated EPS of $0.58 and a forward PE of 218.5x, the implied price target would be approximately $126.7, representing over 900% upside from the current price of $12.38. This extreme upside reflects the small base and high growth expectations. The consensus is overwhelmingly bullish, with no Hold or Sell ratings. The target range is wide: the low EPS estimate of $0.52 implies a price of $113.6, while the high of $0.63 implies $137.7, a spread of about 21%. This wide range indicates high uncertainty, typical for early-stage growth companies. The high target assumes continued rapid revenue growth and margin expansion, while the low target may price in slower adoption or competitive pressures. Recent ratings from Needham, B. Riley, Craig-Hallum, Cantor Fitzgerald, and Roth Capital are all positive, with no downgrades, reinforcing strong analyst conviction.

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AMPX Technical Analysis

The stock is in a pronounced downtrend from its 52-week high of $24.225, with the current price of $12.38 representing 51.1% of the 52-week range. The 1-year price change of +182.6% still reflects a strong long-term uptrend, but the stock has fallen sharply from its highs, indicating a potential trend reversal or significant correction. The price is now closer to the 52-week low of $4.49 than the high, suggesting bearish momentum has taken hold. Over the past month, the stock has declined 46.0%, while the 3-month change is -22.6%, showing accelerating short-term weakness. This contrasts with the 1-year gain, creating a bearish divergence that often signals a shift in investor sentiment or fundamental concerns. The 1-month relative strength of -44.7% versus SPY confirms the stock is underperforming the market significantly. The 52-week low at $4.49 provides key support, while resistance is at the 52-week high of $24.225. A breakdown below $4.49 would signal a catastrophic loss of value, while a move above $24.225 would indicate a resumption of the long-term uptrend. With a beta of 2.263, the stock is 126% more volatile than the S&P 500, amplifying both upside and downside moves and requiring careful risk management.

Beta

2.26

2.26x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-48.8%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$5-$24

Price range past year

Annual Return

+137.2%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodAMPX ReturnS&P 500
1m-40.5%+1.4%
3m-30.7%+10.6%
6m+26.8%+8.4%
1y+137.2%+20.5%
ytd+34.1%+9.7%

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AMPX Fundamental Analysis

Revenue has grown dramatically, with Q4 2025 revenue of $25.2 million representing a 137.4% year-over-year increase, up from $10.6 million in Q4 2024. The sequential trend is also strong, with revenue rising from $21.4 million in Q3 2025 and $15.1 million in Q2 2025, indicating accelerating growth. This robust top-line expansion is driven by increasing adoption of the company's silicon anode batteries in aviation and EV markets, supporting the investment thesis of a high-growth disruptor. Despite revenue growth, the company remains unprofitable, with a net loss of $24.4 million in Q4 2025 and a net margin of -96.7%. Gross margin improved to 23.6% in Q4 2025 from negative levels in prior quarters (e.g., -20.9% in Q1 2025), signaling progress toward profitability. However, operating margin was -11.7%, and net margin remains deeply negative, though losses are narrowing as a percentage of revenue. The company has a strong balance sheet with a current ratio of 7.08 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.38, indicating low financial leverage. Free cash flow was negative $5.9 million in Q4 2025, but the company ended the quarter with $90.5 million in cash, providing ample runway. ROE is -42.4%, reflecting ongoing losses, but the cash position and low debt suggest the company can fund operations without immediate financing needs.

Quarterly Revenue

$25234000.0B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+1.37%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.23%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$-35534000.0B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

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Valuation Analysis: Is AMPX Overvalued?

Since net income is negative, the price-to-sales (PS) ratio is the primary valuation metric. The trailing PS ratio is 13.5x, while the forward PS ratio (based on estimated revenue of $735.9 million) is approximately 1.3x, implying the market expects significant revenue growth. The wide gap between trailing and forward PS reflects aggressive growth expectations embedded in the current price. Compared to the electrical equipment & parts industry average PS ratio (not provided, but typically lower), AMPX trades at a premium, justified by its triple-digit revenue growth. The PEG ratio of 1.01 suggests the stock is fairly valued relative to its earnings growth rate, though earnings are negative. Historically, the PS ratio has ranged from extreme highs (over 1000x in early 2022) to current levels near 13.5x, which is near the lower end of its historical band. This suggests the market has tempered its expectations from earlier euphoric levels, but the current multiple still prices in substantial future growth.

PE

-22.5x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

High-End

5-Year PE Range -148x~-2x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

-23.5x

Enterprise Value Multiple