Amprius Technologies, Inc.
AMPX
$17.83
+11.23%
Amprius Technologies, Inc. is a developer and manufacturer of high-energy-density lithium-ion batteries utilizing proprietary silicon anode technology, operating within the Electrical Equipment & Parts industry. The company positions itself as a technology disruptor, targeting high-performance mobility applications in aviation, electric vehicles, and drones where energy density is critical. The current investor narrative is driven by the validation of its technology through commercial traction, as evidenced by a significant year-over-year revenue surge in its latest quarter, and heightened trading activity that suggests the market is pricing in substantial growth from its expansion into next-generation battery markets.…
AMPX
Amprius Technologies, Inc.
$17.83
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy AMPX Today?
Rating: Hold. The core thesis is that AMPX is a compelling, high-risk/high-reward growth story where the explosive revenue trajectory is currently balanced by a full valuation and significant execution risk, warranting a neutral stance pending clearer evidence of sustainable profitability.
Supporting Evidence: The Hold rating is supported by four key data points. First, valuation is rich at a trailing PS of 13.5x and a forward P/E of 276x based on analyst EPS estimates of $0.49. Second, while revenue growth is exceptional at 137% YoY, it must accelerate further to meet the $761 million analyst forecast. Third, profitability is improving but not yet achieved, with a Q4 net margin of -96.7%. Fourth, analyst sentiment is uniformly bullish (3 Buy ratings), but no consensus price target is provided, leaving the implied upside unclear.
Risks & Conditions: The two biggest risks are failure to meet sky-high revenue growth expectations and continued cash burn necessitating dilutive financing. This Hold rating would upgrade to a Buy if the stock corrects further to a PS ratio below 8x while growth metrics hold, or if the company reports consecutive quarters of positive operating cash flow. It would downgrade to a Sell if quarterly revenue growth decelerates below 50% YoY or if cash burn accelerates. Based on current data, the stock appears fairly valued to slightly overvalued relative to its near-term fundamentals, but undervalued relative to its long-term potential if all growth targets are hit.
Sign up to view all
AMPX 12-Month Price Forecast
AMPX is a binary bet on technology commercialization at a massive scale. The current data presents a paradox: fundamentally, the company is executing superbly with soaring revenue and improving margins, yet the valuation already prices in near-perfect success. The high beta of 2.22 and recent sharp pullback underscore the stock's speculative nature. The neutral stance reflects this balance; the risk/reward is not compelling enough for a broad Buy recommendation, but the growth trajectory is too strong to warrant a Sell. The stance would upgrade to Bullish on a pullback below $12 (implying a forward PS on estimated sales below 6x) or on confirmation of the $761 million revenue target. It would downgrade to Bearish if quarterly revenue growth falls below 80% YoY.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Amprius Technologies, Inc.'s 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $23.18 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$23.18
3 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
3
covering this stock
Price Range
$14 - $23
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage for AMPX appears limited but uniformly bullish, with recent institutional ratings from firms like Needham, B. Riley, and Craig-Hallum all maintaining Buy or Overweight recommendations as recently as March 2026. The data indicates coverage from 3 analysts, with an estimated EPS average of $0.49 for the coming period and an estimated revenue average of $761.67 million, implying a strong consensus expectation for both profitability and massive revenue growth. A specific consensus price target and implied upside are not provided in the dataset, indicating that while sentiment is positive, a formal quantified average target may not be widely established. The target range can be inferred from the high degree of optimism in revenue estimates, with the high estimate at $816.23 million and the low at $704.03 million, a relatively tight spread of about 16% that suggests solid conviction in the growth trajectory. The pattern of recent analyst actions shows consistent reiterations of bullish ratings following financial releases, with no downgrades visible in the provided data, signaling sustained institutional confidence in the company's execution against its growth plan.
Bulls vs Bears: AMPX Investment Factors
The bull case for AMPX is compelling, anchored by its 137% YoY revenue growth, a clear path to profitability evidenced by margin expansion, and a strong consensus forecast for massive future revenue. However, the bear case is equally forceful, highlighting a premium valuation (PS 13.5x) for a company still burning cash, extreme volatility (beta 2.22), and a steep 29% recent correction. Currently, the bull side has stronger evidence due to the concrete, accelerating commercial progress and analyst conviction. The single most important tension in the investment debate is whether the company can grow into its lofty valuation by achieving the forecasted $761+ million in revenue before cash burn or a growth deceleration forces a painful multiple compression.
Bullish
- Explosive Revenue Growth: Q4 2025 revenue surged 137.4% year-over-year to $25.23 million, demonstrating accelerating commercial traction for its silicon anode technology. Sequential quarterly improvements from negative gross margins to a positive 23.65% in Q4 confirm the company is successfully scaling operations.
- Strong Analyst Growth Consensus: Analyst consensus expects revenue to reach $761.67 million next period, implying a massive 30x growth from the latest quarterly run-rate. This high-conviction growth forecast, with a tight 16% spread between high and low estimates, underpins the bullish long-term narrative.
- Path to Profitability Improving: Operating margin dramatically improved to -11.67% in Q4 2025 from -93.09% a year ago, showing operating leverage as revenue scales. The company also achieved positive gross margin of 23.65%, a significant turnaround from -21.19% in the year-ago quarter.
- Strong Liquidity Position: A robust current ratio of 7.08 and a manageable debt-to-equity ratio of 0.38 provide financial flexibility to fund growth. Recent equity issuance of $23.1 million in Q4 2025 further bolsters the balance sheet to support expansion.
Bearish
- High Valuation Despite Losses: The stock trades at a trailing PS ratio of 13.47x and an EV/Sales of 23.39x despite being deeply unprofitable, with a net loss of $24.39 million in the latest quarter. This premium valuation leaves little margin for error in executing its aggressive growth plan.
- Significant Cash Burn: Trailing twelve-month free cash flow is -$35.53 million, and quarterly operating cash flow was -$3.5 million, indicating ongoing reliance on external financing. This cash burn rate necessitates continued capital raises, which could be dilutive to shareholders if growth stalls.
- Extreme Volatility and Recent Correction: The stock's beta of 2.22 signifies it is more than twice as volatile as the market, and it has fallen 29.35% in the past month from recent highs. This sharp correction from a 52-week high of $22.80 to $16.03 highlights the high-risk, speculative nature of the investment.
- Profitability Still Years Away: Analyst consensus EPS for the coming period is $0.49, which implies a forward P/E of 276x, indicating the market is pricing in profits far into the future. The company must continue its hyper-growth trajectory for multiple years to justify its current valuation.
AMPX Technical Analysis
The stock is in a powerful long-term uptrend, evidenced by a staggering 536.11% one-year price change, but is currently experiencing a sharp correction from recent highs. As of the latest close at $16.03, the price sits at approximately 70% of its 52-week range ($2.42 to $22.80), indicating a retreat from the highs but still holding a significant portion of its massive gains. This positioning suggests the stock is digesting its explosive move, with the pullback potentially offering a consolidation phase before the next directional move. Recent momentum has turned sharply negative, with the stock down 29.35% over the past month, which starkly contrasts with its positive 68.38% three-month return. This divergence signals a significant near-term correction or profit-taking event, likely following the parabolic rise from March into April 2026, and the elevated beta of 2.22 confirms the stock's inherent high volatility. Key technical levels are clearly defined by the 52-week high of $22.80 as major resistance and the 52-week low of $2.42 as distant support. A breakout above the $22.80 resistance would signal a resumption of the powerful uptrend, while a sustained breakdown below recent lows near $15 could indicate a deeper correction. The beta of 2.22 means AMPX is more than twice as volatile as the broader market, a critical factor for risk management given the stock's propensity for large swings.
Beta
2.22
2.22x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-46.4%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$3-$23
Price range past year
Annual Return
+557.9%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | AMPX Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -13.7% | +5.1% |
| 3m | +61.2% | +8.3% |
| 6m | +64.9% | +10.4% |
| 1y | +557.9% | +29.6% |
| ytd | +104.0% | +10.1% |
Bobby - Your AI Investment Partner
Get real-time data, AI-driven personalized investment analysis to make smarter investment decisions
AMPX Fundamental Analysis
Revenue growth is accelerating dramatically, with Q4 2025 revenue reaching $25.23 million, representing a massive 137.4% year-over-year increase. This growth trajectory has improved sequentially from negative gross margins in early 2025, indicating successful commercial scaling. The primary driver is the company's core silicon anode battery technology gaining market acceptance in targeted high-performance applications. Profitability remains elusive but is showing marked improvement; the company reported a net loss of $24.39 million in Q4 2025, but this was on a significantly improved gross margin of 23.65%, compared to a gross margin of -21.19% in the year-ago quarter. The operating margin also improved to -11.67% from -93.09% a year prior, demonstrating a clear path toward reducing operating losses as revenue scales. The balance sheet shows a strong liquidity position but significant cash burn from operations. The current ratio is a robust 7.08, indicating ample short-term liquidity, and the debt-to-equity ratio is a manageable 0.38. However, trailing twelve-month free cash flow is deeply negative at -$35.53 million, and the latest quarterly operating cash flow was -$3.5 million, meaning the company is still reliant on external financing to fund its growth, as evidenced by common stock issuances totaling $23.1 million in Q4 2025.
Quarterly Revenue
$25234000.0B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+1.37%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.23%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$-35534000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Open an Account, get $2 TSLA now!
Valuation Analysis: Is AMPX Overvalued?
Given the company's negative net income and EBITDA, the primary valuation metric selected is the Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio. The trailing PS ratio is 13.47x, while the Enterprise Value-to-Sales (EV/Sales) is 23.39x, indicating the market is valuing the enterprise significantly higher than its equity due to its net cash position. The forward PS ratio is not explicitly provided, but analyst revenue estimates for the next period average $761.67 million, which, at the current market cap, would imply a forward PS ratio dramatically lower than the trailing multiple, reflecting high growth expectations. Compared to industry averages, specific sector multiples are not provided in the data, but a PS ratio of 13.5x for a pre-profitability growth company in the industrials/tech hardware space suggests a premium valuation that is justified only by its hyper-growth trajectory and disruptive technology potential. Historically, the stock's own PS ratio has compressed significantly from extreme levels above 100x in 2023 and 2024 to the current 13.5x, as revenue has begun to scale. This places the valuation near the lower end of its own historical range, which may indicate the market has priced in a more realistic growth scenario or that the stock offers relative value compared to its past speculative peaks.
PE
-22.3x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range -148x~-2x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
-22.1x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: AMPX faces significant financial risks stemming from its pre-profitability status and cash burn. The company reported a net loss of $24.39 million in Q4 2025, with trailing twelve-month free cash flow of -$35.53 million, indicating a reliance on external capital markets. While the current ratio of 7.08 and recent equity issuance provide a buffer, the path to self-sufficiency is long, and any disruption in capital markets could force a dilutive financing round. Furthermore, revenue, while growing rapidly, is still small at a $25 million quarterly run-rate, making the business highly sensitive to execution missteps or customer concentration risks as it scales.
Market & Competitive Risks: The primary market risk is valuation compression. Trading at a trailing PS ratio of 13.5x and an EV/Sales of 23.4x, AMPX carries a premium that is contingent on flawless execution of its hyper-growth plan. A beta of 2.22 means the stock is highly sensitive to broader market sell-offs, particularly in growth and technology sectors. Competitive risks are inherent in the battery technology space, where larger, well-capitalized players could develop or acquire competing high-energy-density solutions, threatening AMPX's first-mover advantage and pricing power.
Worst-Case Scenario: The worst-case scenario involves a combination of a growth slowdown, increased cash burn, and a broader market downturn compressing valuations for unprofitable growth stocks. In this adverse scenario, revenue growth could decelerate sharply from the expected 30x trajectory, leading to multiple contraction. The stock could re-test its 52-week low of $2.42, representing a potential loss of approximately 85% from the current price of $16.03. A more realistic severe downside, considering recent support levels and analyst sentiment, might be a 50-60% decline to the $6-$8 range, aligning with a period of stalled commercial progress.
FAQ
The key risks are, in order of severity: 1) Execution & Financial Risk: The company is not profitable, burning -$35.5M in TTM free cash flow, and must successfully scale to a $761M revenue target to justify its valuation. 2) Valuation & Market Risk: With a beta of 2.22, the stock is highly volatile and prone to severe drawdowns in a risk-off environment; its rich sales multiple could compress rapidly. 3) Competitive & Technological Risk: Larger battery manufacturers could develop competing high-energy-density solutions, threatening AMPX's first-mover advantage. 4) Dilution Risk: Ongoing cash burn will likely require further equity offerings, potentially diluting existing shareholders.
The 12-month outlook for AMPX is highly bifurcated, with a base case target range of $16-$22, a bull case of $22.80-$30, and a bear case of $2.42-$10. The base case (50% probability) assumes continued strong growth but below the loftiest analyst estimates, keeping the stock volatile but range-bound. The bull case (25% probability) depends on hitting the $761 million revenue forecast and achieving technological validation, potentially resuming the uptrend. The bear case (25% probability) involves a growth slowdown or market downturn triggering a severe de-rating. The most likely scenario is the base case, as the stock digests its massive 536% one-year gain while the company works to prove its commercial model.
AMPX appears fairly valued to slightly overvalued based on near-term fundamentals but could be undervalued if long-term growth targets are met. The trailing Price-to-Sales ratio of 13.47x is high for an industrial/tech hardware company, especially one that is not yet profitable. The Enterprise Value-to-Sales of 23.39x is even more demanding. However, if the company hits the analyst revenue estimate of $761 million, the forward sales multiple collapses, suggesting the market is paying a premium today for extraordinary future growth. The valuation implies the market expects flawless execution and near-perfect adoption of its silicon anode technology.
AMPX is a high-risk, high-potential reward stock that may be a good buy only for a specific type of investor. For aggressive growth investors with a long time horizon and high risk tolerance, the company's 137% YoY revenue growth and disruptive technology narrative are compelling. However, with a trailing PS ratio of 13.5x, significant cash burn (-$35.5M TTM FCF), and extreme volatility (beta 2.22), it is not suitable for conservative or income-focused portfolios. The lack of a clear consensus price target adds to the uncertainty. It could be a good buy on a significant pullback that better prices in the execution risks.
AMPX is strictly a long-term investment for investors with a 3-5 year horizon. The company is in a capital-intensive growth phase, and the investment thesis hinges on multi-year revenue scaling to achieve profitability. The stock's high beta of 2.22 and lack of dividend make it unsuitable for short-term trading or income investors. The extreme volatility can lead to large short-term losses, as evidenced by the 29% drawdown over the past month. A long-term horizon allows investors to look through this volatility and focus on the fundamental execution of the company's growth plan. A minimum holding period of 3 years is suggested to see through several product and customer development cycles.