CAVA

Cava Group

$80.88

-9.31%
Jun 22, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
CAVA Group, Inc. operates a fast-casual restaurant chain offering a Mediterranean-inspired menu, including dips, spreads, and dressings that are also sold in grocery stores under its CAVA Foods segment. The company has established itself as a high-growth disruptor in the competitive restaurant industry, successfully scaling its brand with a focus on company-owned locations. The current investor narrative centers on the company's ability to sustain impressive same-store sales growth and rapid unit expansion without resorting to heavy discounting, as highlighted in recent news, while debates focus on whether its premium stock valuation is justified by this flawless execution and future growth prospects.

People also watch

McDonald's

McDonald's

MCD

Analysis
Starbucks

Starbucks

SBUX

Analysis
Chipotle Mexican Grill

Chipotle Mexican Grill

CMG

Analysis
Yum! Brands

Yum! Brands

YUM

Analysis
Darden Restaurants

Darden Restaurants

DRI

Analysis

CAVA 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $80.88
Average Target $80.88
High Target $93.01199999999999
Low Target $68.74799999999999

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Cava Group's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $105.14 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$105.14

8 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

8

covering this stock

Price Range

$65 - $105

Analyst target range

Buy
2 (25%)
Hold
4 (50%)
Sell
2 (25%)

The stock is covered by 8 analysts, and recent institutional ratings show a mix of bullish and neutral stances, including actions like 'Overweight' from Keybanc and a downgrade to 'Hold' from Argus Research in late February. The consensus, based on the distribution of recent ratings, leans bullish, with firms like TD Cowen, Bernstein, and Piper Sandler maintaining Buy or Outperform ratings. Analyst estimates point to significant growth, with an average EPS forecast of $1.80 and average revenue estimate of $2.97 billion, implying strong forward expectations. The target price range derived from EPS estimates suggests a low scenario based on an EPS of $1.60 and a high scenario based on $1.87, indicating a spread that reflects differing assumptions about the company's ability to maintain its growth trajectory and margin expansion versus facing competitive or economic headwinds; this spread signals a degree of uncertainty typical for a high-growth, recently public company.

Drowning in data?

Find the real signal!

CAVA Technical Analysis

The stock is in a sustained uptrend over the past year, evidenced by a 1-year price change of +19.79%. As of the latest close of $89.18, the price is trading near the top of its 52-week range, approximately 90% of the way from its 52-week low of $43.41 toward its high of $98.79, indicating strong momentum but also potential overextension. Recent short-term momentum is exceptionally strong, with the stock up 14.16% over the past month and 5.83% over the past three months, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's returns of 0.74% and 15.14% over the same periods, respectively. This recent acceleration, particularly the 14.16% 1-month gain, suggests the stock is experiencing a powerful breakout phase, though its high beta of 1.705 indicates it is 70.5% more volatile than the market, amplifying both gains and risks. Key technical levels are clear, with immediate resistance at the 52-week high of $98.79 and major support at the 52-week low of $43.41. A decisive breakout above $98.79 would signal a continuation of the bullish trend, while a breakdown below key intermediate support near $72 (the recent May low) could indicate a deeper correction; the stock's high beta of 1.705 underscores that such moves will likely be magnified relative to the broader market.

Beta

1.71

1.71x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-52.6%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$43-$99

Price range past year

Annual Return

+8.4%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodCAVA ReturnS&P 500
1m+0.6%-0.2%
3m-4.2%+14.0%
6m+31.0%+7.8%
1y+8.4%+25.3%
ytd+33.6%+9.2%

Bobby - Your AI Investment Partner

Get real-time data, AI-driven personalized investment analysis to make smarter investment decisions

CAVA Fundamental Analysis

Revenue growth remains robust, with the most recent quarterly revenue of $274.99 million representing a 20.93% year-over-year increase. This follows a multi-quarter trend of strong growth, as seen in prior quarters with revenues of $292.24 million, $280.62 million, and $331.83 million, demonstrating consistent top-line expansion primarily driven by the core Restaurant Revenue segment, which contributed $562.56 million over a recent period. The company is profitable, reporting net income of $4.92 million for the latest quarter and a trailing twelve-month net margin of 5.40%. However, profitability has shown some quarterly volatility, with gross margin compressing to 14.89% in Q4 2025 from 20.62% in Q2 2025, indicating potential cost pressures or sales mix shifts that merit monitoring against the industry's typical margin structure. The balance sheet is healthy with a strong current ratio of 2.65 and a manageable debt-to-equity ratio of 0.60. The company generates positive free cash flow, with TTM FCF of $26.14 million and an ROE of 8.18%, suggesting it can fund its growth initiatives internally without excessive reliance on external financing, thereby limiting financial risk.

Quarterly Revenue

$274985000.0B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+0.20%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.14%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$26141000.0B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Restaurant Revenue

Open an Account, get $2 TSLA now!

Valuation Analysis: Is CAVA Overvalued?

Given the company's positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio. The trailing PE is extremely high at 109.16x, while the forward PE is similarly elevated at 117.96x; the minimal gap between trailing and forward multiples suggests the market is already pricing in near-term earnings growth. Compared to industry averages, CAVA trades at a significant premium; for instance, its Price-to-Sales ratio of 5.90 is high for the restaurant sector, which often features lower multiples, indicating investors are paying for its superior growth profile and disruptive potential. Historically, the stock's own valuation has soared; its current trailing PE of 109.16x is near the top of its observable historical range, far above levels like 41.16x seen in late 2024, signaling the market is embedding exceptionally optimistic expectations for future performance, leaving little room for operational missteps.

PE

109.0x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Low-End

5-Year PE Range -8x~615x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

49.4x

Enterprise Value Multiple