Coeur Mining
CDE
$19.40
-1.72%
Coeur Mining, Inc. is a metals producer focused on the discovery and mining of precious minerals, primarily gold and silver, with operations across the United States, Canada, and Mexico. The company is a mid-tier producer in the gold mining industry, operating key assets like the Palmarejo, Rochester, Wharf, and Kensington mines. The current investor narrative centers on the stock's extreme sensitivity to precious metal price volatility, as evidenced by recent sharp price swings tied to gold and silver movements, alongside debates over its valuation following a period of significant share price appreciation and subsequent correction.…
CDE
Coeur Mining
$19.40
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy CDE Today?
Rating & Thesis: Hold. CDE presents a high-risk, high-reward proposition where spectacular fundamentals are counterbalanced by extreme volatility and a valuation that appears to have peaked for this cycle. The core thesis is that the stock is in a consolidation phase after a parabolic move, and investors should wait for either a clearer technical base or a more attractive entry point before committing capital.
Supporting Evidence: The Hold rating is supported by conflicting data points: 1) The forward P/E of 6.92x is compelling and suggests significant earnings growth, 2) Revenue growth of 120.94% YoY and a net margin of 31.85% are exceptional, 3) The balance sheet is fortress-like with a 0.11 debt-to-equity ratio, and 4) TTM free cash flow of $665.7M is robust. However, these are offset by a trailing P/E of 19.33x that sits at a historical peak, a stock price 36% below its 52-week high indicating broken momentum, and severe recent underperformance versus the market (-17.62% over one month).
Risks & Conditions: The two biggest risks are a sustained decline in gold prices invalidating earnings forecasts, and multiple compression from its elevated historical valuation. This Hold would upgrade to a Buy if the stock establishes strong support above $16.17 and the forward P/E remains below 8x while gold prices stabilize or rally. It would downgrade to a Sell if quarterly revenue growth decelerates sharply below 50% YoY, the stock breaks below $16.17 on high volume, or gold enters a confirmed downtrend. On valuation, the stock is fairly valued to slightly overvalued relative to its own history but appears undervalued on forward earnings estimates—the verdict hinges entirely on which timeframe the market chooses to price.
Sign up to view all
CDE 12-Month Price Forecast
CDE is a tactical holding, not a strategic investment. The AI assessment is neutral based on the offsetting forces of compelling forward earnings potential against severe technical damage and commodity dependency. The low forward P/E is the most persuasive bullish factor, but it requires perfect execution in an unpredictable gold market. Confidence is medium because the outcome is disproportionately tied to one variable: the price of gold. The stance would upgrade to bullish on a confirmed gold price uptrend combined with CDE holding above $19.00, signaling a resumption of its primary trend. It would downgrade to bearish on a sustained gold price break below $2,000/oz and a CDE breakdown below $16.00, confirming the correction has further to run.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Coeur Mining's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $25.22 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$25.22
1 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
1
covering this stock
Price Range
$16 - $25
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage for Coeur Mining appears limited, with data indicating only one analyst providing estimates, which suggests the stock may have lower institutional following typical of some mid-cap resource names. The single analyst provides an estimated EPS average of $1.92 for the coming period, with a range from $1.65 to $2.24, and an estimated revenue average of approximately $7.96 billion. The consensus recommendation cannot be determined from the limited data, but recent institutional rating actions show a mix of 'Buy', 'Outperform', and one recent downgrade to 'Hold'. The target price range is not explicitly provided in the data, but the wide spread in EPS estimates ($1.65 to $2.24) signals a degree of uncertainty regarding the company's future earnings power, likely tied to volatile commodity price forecasts. The recent downgrade by Canaccord Genuity from 'Buy' to 'Hold' in February 2026 may indicate some analysts are turning cautious following the stock's strong run and heightened valuation sensitivity. The limited number of covering analysts can lead to higher stock price volatility and less efficient price discovery, as fewer institutional voices are shaping the consensus view.
Bulls vs Bears: CDE Investment Factors
The bull and bear cases for CDE are equally compelling, creating a highly polarized investment thesis. The bullish argument is grounded in spectacular fundamental improvement: explosive 121% revenue growth, margin expansion, strong cash flow, and a cheap forward P/E of 6.9x. The bearish case is equally data-driven, focusing on extreme volatility, a valuation at historical highs after a parabolic rally, and clear signs of technical breakdown and analyst caution. Currently, the bearish evidence holds a slight edge due to the stock's severe recent underperformance and its position trading well off highs despite strong fundamentals, indicating the market is prioritizing risk-off sentiment over operational excellence. The single most important tension is whether the company's robust forward earnings estimates (justifying the low forward P/E) will materialize, or if a sustained downturn in precious metal prices will crush those estimates and trigger a deeper valuation derating.
Bullish
- Explosive Revenue & Profit Growth: Q4 2025 revenue surged 120.94% YoY to $674.8M, while net income reached $215M for a robust 31.85% net margin. This demonstrates powerful operating leverage and execution in a favorable commodity price environment.
- Strong Balance Sheet & Cash Flow: The company has a pristine debt-to-equity ratio of 0.11 and generated $665.7M in TTM free cash flow. This financial strength provides a buffer against volatility and funds growth without excessive leverage.
- Attractive Forward Valuation: The forward P/E of 6.92x, based on an analyst EPS estimate of $1.92, suggests the stock is cheap if earnings materialize. This is a significant discount to the trailing P/E of 19.33x, implying high expected earnings growth.
- Significant Operational Leverage: Gross margin expanded from 38.6% in Q1 2025 to 53.7% in Q4 2025. This dramatic 15.1 percentage point improvement shows the company's ability to convert higher metal prices directly into profitability.
Bearish
- Extreme Volatility & Recent Weakness: The stock has a beta of 1.33 and is down 7.64% over the past month, underperforming the SPY by 17.62%. This highlights its high sensitivity to gold price swings and a recent loss of bullish momentum.
- Valuation at Historical Highs: The trailing P/E of 19.33x is near the top of its own historical range, which previously peaked at 13.17x. This suggests much of the fundamental improvement is already priced in, leaving little room for multiple expansion.
- Analyst Caution & Limited Coverage: A recent downgrade to 'Hold' and limited analyst coverage (only one providing estimates) indicate skepticism and lower institutional interest. The wide EPS estimate range ($1.65-$2.24) underscores high uncertainty around future earnings.
- Correction from Parabolic Rally: Despite a 226.85% 1-year gain, the stock is 36% below its 52-week high of $27.77 and has experienced a -40.44% max drawdown. This pattern suggests trend exhaustion and a high risk of further mean reversion.
CDE Technical Analysis
The stock is in a volatile consolidation phase following a massive prior-year rally, currently trading at approximately 63.5% of its 52-week range, having retreated significantly from its recent highs. With a 1-year price change of +226.85%, the stock has undergone a parabolic move, but the current price of $17.65 is well below the 52-week high of $27.77, suggesting a substantial correction from peak momentum. Recent short-term momentum is decisively negative, with the stock down 7.64% over the past month and down 13.65% over the past three months, sharply diverging from the powerful longer-term uptrend and indicating a significant loss of bullish momentum and potential trend exhaustion. Key technical support is anchored at the 52-week low of $5.21, though more immediate support lies near recent lows around $16.17, while resistance is firmly established at the 52-week high of $27.77. A sustained break above the $27.77 level would signal a resumption of the primary bull trend, whereas a breakdown below the recent March low could trigger a deeper correction toward lower support levels. The stock's beta of 1.328 indicates it is approximately 33% more volatile than the broader market, which is typical for a gold miner and underscores the heightened risk and potential for large price swings inherent in the position. The stock's relative strength metrics highlight its recent underperformance; it has a relative strength of -17.62 over the past month versus the SPY, indicating severe weakness even as the broader market rallied. This pronounced underperformance, coupled with a maximum drawdown of -40.44% from its peak, illustrates the stock's high volatility and the significant risk of holding it during a sector downturn, necessitating careful risk management for investors.
Beta
1.24
1.24x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-40.4%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$7-$28
Price range past year
Annual Return
+162.5%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | CDE Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -8.4% | +7.7% |
| 3m | -13.5% | +9.7% |
| 6m | +31.0% | +11.3% |
| 1y | +162.5% | +27.3% |
| ytd | +10.5% | +9.7% |
Bobby - Your AI Investment Partner
Get real-time data, AI-driven personalized investment analysis to make smarter investment decisions
CDE Fundamental Analysis
Revenue growth has been exceptionally strong, with Q4 2025 revenue of $674.8 million representing a year-over-year increase of 120.94%. This explosive growth trajectory is evident across recent quarters, with revenue climbing sequentially from $360.1 million in Q1 2025 to the Q4 peak, driven by higher production and favorable metal prices. The revenue segment data shows gold contributed $424.8 million and silver $250.0 million in the latest period, with gold being the primary growth driver for the company. Profitability has improved dramatically, with the company reporting net income of $215.0 million in Q4 2025, yielding a robust net margin of 31.85%. Gross margin for the quarter was a healthy 53.7%, up significantly from 38.6% in Q1 2025, indicating substantial operating leverage and margin expansion as revenues scaled. The full-year net margin stands at 28.30%, a strong level for a mining company, reflecting efficient cost management and the benefit of elevated precious metal prices. The balance sheet is in solid health, with a strong current ratio of 2.0 and a very low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.11, indicating minimal financial leverage and ample liquidity. The company generated substantial free cash flow of $665.7 million on a trailing twelve-month basis, providing strong internal funding for growth and capital returns. With a Return on Equity (ROE) of 17.68%, the company is effectively generating shareholder value from its equity base, supported by its profitable operations and clean balance sheet.
Quarterly Revenue
$674847000.0B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+1.20%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.53%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$665717000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
Open an Account, get $2 TSLA now!
Valuation Analysis: Is CDE Overvalued?
Given the company's positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio. The trailing PE ratio is 19.33x, while the forward PE is significantly lower at 6.92x, indicating the market expects a substantial increase in earnings over the next year, likely driven by sustained high metal prices and operational execution. Compared to sector averages, Coeur's valuation presents a mixed picture. Its trailing PE of 19.33x is difficult to compare directly without a provided industry average, but its Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio of 5.47x and EV/EBITDA of 10.89x are key metrics for resource companies. The forward PE of 6.92x suggests the stock may be trading at a discount to future earnings potential if the company can deliver on its growth projections. Historically, the stock's current trailing PE of 19.33x sits well above its own historical range observed in recent quarters, which has fluctuated wildly from negative figures during loss-making periods to a high of 13.17x at the end of 2025. Trading near the top of its own historical valuation band suggests the market has already priced in a significant improvement in fundamentals and optimistic expectations for future profitability, leaving less room for multiple expansion.
PE
19.3x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range -30x~373x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
10.9x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: CDE's primary financial risk is not leverage—its debt-to-equity of 0.11 is minimal—but rather earnings volatility and valuation compression. The company's profitability is a direct function of gold and silver prices; a 10% drop in metal prices could swiftly erase its impressive 31.9% net margin. Revenue concentration in precious metals (100% of sales) creates a binary exposure with no diversification. Furthermore, the stock's valuation is highly sensitive to growth expectations; the forward P/E of 6.9x is a bargain only if the company hits the estimated $1.92 EPS. Any operational misstep or cost inflation that jeopardizes this target would trigger a severe re-rating.
Market & Competitive Risks: The paramount market risk is valuation compression. With a trailing P/E of 19.3x—well above its own historical norm—and a PS ratio of 5.47x, CDE trades at a premium that demands continued explosive growth. As a pure-play gold miner with a beta of 1.33, it is a leveraged proxy for gold prices and is highly sensitive to real interest rates and USD strength. Competitive risks are inherent but secondary; the company competes on cost and reserve quality within a fragmented industry. The recent news cycle perfectly illustrates this risk, with headlines explicitly linking daily stock moves to fluctuations in gold and silver prices, confirming its role as a trading vehicle rather than a fundamental story.
Worst-Case Scenario: The worst-case scenario involves a sustained bear market in gold, triggered by a strengthening USD and rising real interest rates, coinciding with an operational issue at a key mine. This would cause a double-whammy: lower revenue from depressed metal prices and higher costs, crushing earnings estimates. Analyst sentiment, already fragile with a recent downgrade, would turn overtly negative. In this scenario, the stock could realistically revisit its 52-week low of $5.21, representing a catastrophic -70% loss from the current price of $17.65. A more probable, yet severe, downside target is the recent March low of $16.17, implying a -8% further decline, with a breach opening the path to the $12-$14 range (-20% to -30%).
FAQ
The key risks, in order of severity, are: 1) Commodity Price Risk: CDE's revenue is 100% tied to gold and silver prices; a 10% drop can devastate margins. 2) Valuation Compression Risk: The stock's trailing P/E of 19.33x is historically high, leaving it vulnerable to derating if growth slows. 3) Operational & Cost Risk: Mining is capital intensive and subject to cost inflation, geological challenges, and regulatory changes that can impact the path to its $1.92 EPS target. 4) Market Sentiment & Liquidity Risk: With limited analyst coverage, the stock can experience sharp, sentiment-driven swings and lower liquidity, exacerbating volatility as seen in its -40.44% max drawdown.
The 12-month forecast for CDE is a wide range reflecting its high volatility. The base case (50% probability) sees the stock trading between $19 and $24, assuming gold prices are range-bound and the company meets its ~$1.92 EPS estimate. The bull case (30% probability) targets a retest of the 52-week high at $27.77 and beyond to $32, driven by a gold bull market and earnings beats. The bear case (20% probability) warns of a drop to the $12-$16.17 range if gold falls into a bear market and earnings disappoint. The most likely scenario is the base case, hinging on the critical assumption that the company can deliver on its promised earnings growth amidst stable commodity prices.
CDE's valuation presents a paradox. It appears overvalued based on its own history, with a trailing P/E of 19.33x trading at the high end of its historical range. However, it appears deeply undervalued on a forward-looking basis, with a forward P/E of only 6.92x. This discrepancy means the market is pricing in massive earnings growth but is also skeptical it will be sustained. Compared to sector averages, its Price-to-Sales of 5.47x and EV/EBITDA of 10.89x are typical for a growing mid-tier miner. Overall, the stock is fairly valued to slightly rich on current results but cheap on expected future profits, making the valuation verdict entirely dependent on the success of those future earnings.
CDE is a high-risk, high-potential reward stock that is a good buy only for a specific type of investor. For traders or investors with a strong bullish conviction on gold and a high risk tolerance, the forward P/E of 6.9x offers compelling value if earnings estimates are met. However, for most long-term, risk-averse investors, it is not a good buy due to its extreme volatility (beta 1.33), 36% decline from its highs, and direct dependency on unpredictable commodity prices. The current 'Hold' rating suggests waiting for a more favorable entry point, such as a stabilization above $19 or a clearer bullish trend in gold.
CDE is primarily suitable for medium-term tactical investing (6-18 months) rather than long-term buy-and-hold or short-term trading. Its high beta (1.33) and direct link to gold prices make it too volatile for most short-term traders without a sophisticated risk management strategy. For long-term holders, the lack of a dividend and the cyclical nature of the mining industry reduce its appeal as a core, decades-long holding. The ideal horizon is medium-term, allowing an investor to capture a potential upcycle in gold while being prepared to exit if the fundamental thesis (hitting forward EPS targets) breaks down. A minimum holding period of one year is suggested to ride through volatility and allow operational execution to be judged.