CRCL

Circle Internet Group, Inc.

$104.17

-7.91%
May 26, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Circle Internet Group, Inc. is a financial technology firm operating at the intersection of digital currencies and public blockchains, providing a full-stack platform for payments, commerce, and financial applications. The company is a leading player in the stablecoin ecosystem, primarily through its USDC stablecoin, positioning itself as a critical infrastructure provider for the digital asset economy. The current investor narrative is dominated by volatile swings driven by regulatory developments, Bitcoin price movements, and the company's own strategic announcements, such as securing major institutional backing for its new Arc blockchain, which has fueled significant price rallies amidst broader market debates over its growth sustainability and profitability.

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CRCL 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $104.17
Average Target $104.17
High Target $119.79549999999999
Low Target $88.5445

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Circle Internet Group, Inc.'s 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $135.42 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$135.42

5 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

5

covering this stock

Price Range

$83 - $135

Analyst target range

Buy
1 (20%)
Hold
2 (40%)
Sell
2 (40%)

A limited set of 5 analysts provide coverage for CRCL, with an estimated EPS average of $3.84 for the coming period and an average revenue estimate of $7.79 billion, indicating institutional interest but not yet broad consensus. The target price range is not explicitly provided in the data, but the wide dispersion between the low EPS estimate of $3.22 and the high of $5.63 signals significant uncertainty and divergent views on the company's future earnings power, which is typical for a recently public company in a disruptive and rapidly evolving industry. Recent institutional ratings show a mix of 'Buy' and 'Neutral' actions, with several firms like Clear Street upgrading from 'Hold' to 'Buy' in March 2026, suggesting a cautiously improving sentiment among covering analysts, though the overall coverage remains sparse, contributing to the stock's high volatility and less efficient price discovery.

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CRCL Technical Analysis

The stock is in a volatile recovery phase from a deep trough, with the current price of $113.12 representing a 79.5% gain over the past three months, yet it remains significantly below its 52-week high of $298.99, trading at only 37.8% of that range, indicating substantial recovery potential but also lingering weakness from prior declines. Recent momentum is exceptionally strong, with an 8.4% gain over the past month and a 79.5% surge over three months, dramatically outpacing the S&P 500's 8.15% 3-month return, signaling a powerful short-term bullish reversal from the longer-term downtrend that saw a 52-week low of $49.9. Key technical support is anchored at the $49.9 low, while resistance looms near the $298.99 high; a sustained breakout above recent highs near $132 would confirm the recovery's strength, while the stock's high volatility is evident from its 80.93% maximum drawdown, demanding careful risk management given its sensitivity to crypto market sentiment and regulatory news.

Beta

Max Drawdown

-80.9%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$50-$299

Price range past year

Annual Return

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodCRCL ReturnS&P 500
1m+4.5%+5.1%
3m+25.3%+8.3%
6m+43.4%+10.4%
1y+29.6%
ytd+24.8%+10.1%

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CRCL Fundamental Analysis

Revenue growth is explosive but highly volatile, with Q4 2025 revenue of $770.2 million representing a 76.9% year-over-year increase, yet this follows a chaotic multi-quarter pattern that included a disastrous Q2 2025 where revenue of $658.1 million was accompanied by a gross margin of -38.3%. Profitability is inconsistent, with the latest quarter showing net income of $133.4 million and a gross margin of 19.0%, a marked improvement from the deeply negative margins of prior quarters, but the trailing twelve-month net margin remains negative at -2.5%, highlighting the company's struggle to achieve sustainable earnings. The balance sheet shows a strong liquidity position with a current ratio of 1.03 and minimal debt, evidenced by a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.011, while the company generated substantial trailing free cash flow of $542.1 million, providing internal funding for growth and reducing financial risk despite the operational volatility.

Quarterly Revenue

$770232000.0B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+0.76%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.19%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$542129000.0B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

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Valuation Analysis: Is CRCL Overvalued?

Given the inconsistent profitability with a trailing net income that is slightly negative, the primary valuation metric selected is the Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio. The stock trades at a trailing PS ratio of 7.0 and a forward PS ratio implied by the average revenue estimate of $7.79 billion, which is significantly lower, indicating the market is pricing in substantial revenue growth expectations for the coming year. Compared to typical financial services or capital markets firms, a PS ratio of 7.0 is elevated, suggesting a premium valuation that investors are willing to pay for exposure to the high-growth but risky digital asset and blockchain infrastructure sector. Historically, the stock's own PS ratio has fluctuated wildly, from 3.1 in Q1 2025 to 42.0 in Q3 2025; the current 7.0 ratio sits near the lower end of this extreme range, which could indicate a value opportunity if the company's fundamentals stabilize, but also reflects the high uncertainty and volatility inherent in its business model.

PE

-276.4x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Low-End

5-Year PE Range -10x~136x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

2322.9x

Enterprise Value Multiple