Famous Dave's
DAVE
$350.65
+3.80%
Dave Inc. is a financial technology company operating a mobile-first neobanking platform that provides cash advances (ExtraCash), fee-free banking, budgeting tools, credit building, and side-gig discovery to predominantly lower- and middle-income American consumers. The company occupies a distinct niche as a challenger to both traditional banks and legacy payday lenders, monetizing primarily through subscription fees, transaction-based interchange, and instant-transfer charges rather than overdraft penalties. The current investor narrative centers on a dramatic profitability inflection — Dave has swung from persistent losses to robust GAAP net income, with recent headlines highlighting the company's decision to raise ExtraCash limits alongside strategic pricing changes as a signal that monetization is accelerating. Management's aggressive share repurchases and the stock's inclusion in broader small-cap growth momentum have further fueled debate about whether the company can sustain its rapid revenue growth while expanding margins, or whether competitive and regulatory pressures in the fintech lending space will eventually compress its economics.…
DAVE
Famous Dave's
$350.65
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy DAVE Today?
The synthesized recommendation is a Buy, anchored by the analyst consensus rating of 'Buy' (mean 1.6) and an average target price of $444.21, implying 31.5% upside from the current price of $337.82. The core thesis is that Dave has successfully transitioned from a cash-burning fintech to a highly profitable growth company, with Q1 2026 revenue growing 46.71% YoY and net income of $57.94M yielding a 36.57% net margin. This profitability inflection, combined with a PEG ratio of 0.07, suggests the stock is significantly undervalued relative to its growth trajectory.
Supporting evidence includes: (1) revenue growth of 46.71% YoY, far exceeding the broader software industry average; (2) gross margin of 86.69% and operating margin of 37.60%, demonstrating strong operating leverage; (3) TTM free cash flow of $326.50M with a 99.97% FCF conversion rate in Q1 2026; (4) ROE of 55.53% and ROA of 31.01%, exceptional by any standard; and (5) a trailing PE of 15.11x, which is remarkably low for a company growing at this pace. The PS ratio of 5.34x is also below the industry range of 5x-15x for high-growth software companies.
Key risks that could invalidate the thesis include: (1) regulatory crackdown on cash advance products, which could severely impact ExtraCash revenue; (2) competitive pressures from traditional banks and other neobanks compressing margins; and (3) the stock's extreme volatility (beta 3.84) making it vulnerable to market downturns. The rating would upgrade to Strong Buy if the PE compresses below 12x while growth remains above 40%, or downgrade to Hold if revenue growth decelerates below 25% or net margin falls below 20%. Relative to its history and peers, DAVE appears undervalued, trading at a fraction of its historical PS multiple despite superior profitability.
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DAVE 12-Month Price Forecast
Dave presents a compelling growth-at-a-reasonable-price opportunity, with revenue growing at 46.71% YoY and a net margin of 36.57%, yet trading at only 15.11x trailing earnings and a PEG of 0.07. The company's fortress balance sheet and strong free cash flow generation provide a margin of safety, while analyst consensus of 'Buy' with a $444.21 target implies significant upside. However, the extreme beta of 3.84 and recent momentum deceleration warrant caution, and the stock is susceptible to sharp reversals. I would upgrade to high confidence if Q2 2026 results show sustained revenue growth above 45% and margin expansion, and downgrade to neutral if growth falls below 30% or regulatory risks materialize.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Famous Dave's's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $444.21 and implied upside of +26.7% versus the current price.
Average Target
$444.21
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+26.7%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$350 - $500
Analyst target range
Dave is covered by 14 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of "Buy" and a recommendation mean of 1.6 (where 1.0 is a Strong Buy and 5.0 is a Sell), indicating a strongly bullish consensus. The average target price of $444.21 implies approximately +31.5% upside from the current price of $337.82, a substantial expected return that reflects analyst confidence in the company's growth trajectory. The consensus leans decidedly bullish, with the institutional ratings data showing a consistent pattern of Buy and Outperform ratings from firms including UBS, Keefe Bruyette & Woods, Citizens, Benchmark, Barrington Research, B. Riley Securities, and Canaccord Genuity, with no downgrades or Sell ratings in the recent history.
The target price range spans from a low of $350.00 to a high of $500.00, a spread of $150 or approximately 43% of the average target, which signals meaningful uncertainty about the company's future performance. The high target of $500.00 likely assumes continued acceleration in ExtraCash monetization, successful expansion of subscription revenue, and multiple expansion as the market recognizes the company's profitability. The low target of $350.00, which is only +3.6% above the current price, likely prices in margin compression from competitive pressures, potential regulatory headwinds in the fintech lending space, or a slowdown in user growth. The estimated EPS average of $27.53 for the forward period, with a range of $23.70 to $31.37, implies that analysts expect significant earnings growth from the current trailing EPS of $0.066, though the wide range reflects uncertainty about the pace of margin expansion. The recent institutional ratings activity shows only reiterations of existing Buy/Outperform ratings, with no upgrades or downgrades, suggesting that analyst sentiment is stable and conviction remains high.
Bulls vs Bears: DAVE Investment Factors
The bull case currently has stronger evidence, driven by Dave's exceptional 46.71% YoY revenue growth, dramatic margin expansion to 36.57% net margin, and a PEG ratio of 0.07 that suggests deep undervaluation relative to growth. The fortress balance sheet with $135.17M cash and $326.50M TTM free cash flow provides a solid foundation, while analyst consensus of 'Buy' with a $444.21 average target implies 31.5% upside. However, the bear case is not without merit: the extreme beta of 3.84, recent -5.24% single-day drop, and -2.10% one-month return highlight significant volatility and momentum deceleration. The single most important tension is whether Dave can sustain its rapid revenue growth and margin expansion amid regulatory and competitive pressures in the fintech lending space — if growth decelerates, the current valuation could compress sharply given the high beta.
Bullish
- Explosive Revenue Growth at 46.7% YoY: Q1 2026 revenue of $158.41M grew 46.71% from $107.98M in Q1 2025, with a multi-quarter trajectory from $107.98M to $131.76M to $150.73M to $163.72M to $158.41M. This consistent acceleration demonstrates strong product-market fit and successful monetization of the ExtraCash platform.
- Dramatic Profitability Inflection: Q1 2026 net income of $57.94M represents a 36.57% net margin, up from just 6.86% in Q2 2025. Operating margin of 37.60% and gross margin of 86.69% reflect significant operating leverage and a favorable revenue mix shift toward higher-margin subscription and transaction fees.
- Deeply Undervalued on PEG Basis: The PEG ratio of 0.07 is extraordinarily low, and the trailing PE of 15.11x is remarkably cheap for a company growing revenue at 46.71% YoY. The PS ratio of 5.34x is well below the 14.76x seen in Q1 2026 and 18.27x in Q4 2025, suggesting the market has not yet fully priced in the earnings power.
- Fortress Balance Sheet and Cash Generation: Current ratio of 3.83, debt-to-equity of only 0.21, and $135.17M in cash provide ample liquidity. TTM free cash flow of $326.50M with a 99.97% FCF conversion rate in Q1 2026 ($82.01M FCF on $82.03M operating cash flow) demonstrates exceptional cash generation to fund growth and buybacks.
Bearish
- Extreme Volatility with Beta of 3.84: DAVE's beta of 3.84 means it is nearly four times as volatile as the broader market, and the maximum drawdown of -39.11% over the past year underscores the potential for sharp reversals. A 1% market decline could translate to a ~3.8% drop in DAVE, making it unsuitable for risk-averse investors.
- Recent Momentum Deceleration and Sharp Selloff: The 1-month change is -2.10% and the most recent session saw a -5.24% single-day decline from $356.49 to $337.82. Relative strength versus SPY over the past month is -1.14%, indicating near-term underperformance and potential trend exhaustion after a 61% six-month gain.
- Valuation Premium to Book and Cash Flow: The price-to-book ratio of 8.39x and price-to-cash-flow of 10.20x are elevated, reflecting high expectations. While justified by ROE of 55.53%, any slowdown in earnings growth could lead to multiple compression, especially with EV/EBITDA at 16.21x.
- Regulatory and Competitive Pressures: As a fintech lender targeting lower- and middle-income consumers, Dave faces potential regulatory scrutiny on cash advance products and competition from both traditional banks and other neobanks. The low analyst target of $350.00 (only 3.6% above current price) likely prices in these risks.
DAVE Technical Analysis
DAVE is in a powerful, sustained uptrend, with a 1-year price change of +48.30% and a 6-month gain of +61.00%, decisively outperforming the S&P 500's +15.01% and +17.44% over the same periods. At a current price of $337.82, the stock sits at approximately 60.7% of its 52-week range (low of $152.21, high of $458.25), having pulled back from its July peak of $458.25 but still holding the majority of its gains. This positioning suggests the stock is in a healthy consolidation phase within a broader uptrend rather than a broken trend, though the distance from the high indicates that momentum has cooled from its most euphoric levels.
Short-term momentum has decelerated notably, with a 1-month change of -2.10% and a 3-month change of +7.44%, a sharp contrast to the explosive 6-month and 1-year gains. The most recent session saw a steep -5.24% single-day decline from $356.49 to $337.82, and the 1-month relative strength versus SPY is -1.14%, meaning DAVE has slightly underperformed the market over the past month. This divergence between strong long-term performance and weak near-term momentum could signal either a healthy mean-reversion pullback within an uptrend or the early stages of a trend reversal, particularly given the elevated beta of 3.84, which amplifies both upside and downside moves.
Key technical support is anchored at the 52-week low of $152.21, with intermediate support likely around the $300-$310 area where the stock consolidated in August 2026. Resistance is defined by the 52-week high of $458.25, and a breakout above that level would signal renewed momentum and potentially attract trend-following capital. Conversely, a breakdown below $300 would threaten the intermediate uptrend and could open the door to a deeper retracement toward the $250-$270 zone. The beta of 3.84 means DAVE is nearly four times as volatile as the broader market, a critical consideration for position sizing — a 1% market move could translate to a ~3.8% move in DAVE, and the maximum drawdown of -39.11% over the past year underscores the stock's capacity for sharp, painful reversals.
Beta
3.84
3.84x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-39.1%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$152-$458
Price range past year
Annual Return
+47.0%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | DAVE Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -1.1% | +1.0% |
| 3m | +10.3% | +5.4% |
| 6m | +93.7% | +17.8% |
| 1y | +47.0% | +16.5% |
| ytd | +59.8% | +13.4% |
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DAVE Fundamental Analysis
Dave's revenue trajectory is exceptionally strong, with Q1 2026 revenue of $158.41 million representing 46.71% year-over-year growth from Q1 2025's $107.98 million. The multi-quarter trend shows consistent acceleration: revenue rose from $107.98M in Q1 2025 to $131.76M in Q2 2025, $150.73M in Q3 2025, $163.72M in Q4 2025, and $158.41M in Q1 2026, with the slight sequential dip reflecting typical seasonality. Subscription revenue of $13.95 million is a growing but still relatively small contributor compared to transaction-based ExtraCash revenue, suggesting that the core cash-advance product remains the primary growth engine. The 46.71% YoY growth rate, combined with management's decision to raise ExtraCash limits, implies that the company is successfully expanding both user engagement and monetization per user, which is the critical driver for the investment case.
Profitability has inflected dramatically, with Q1 2026 net income of $57.94 million on $158.41 million in revenue, yielding a net margin of 36.57% — a massive improvement from the $9.04 million net income and 6.86% net margin in Q2 2025. Gross margin stands at a stellar 86.69% in Q1 2026, up from 84.49% in Q1 2025, reflecting operating leverage and a favorable revenue mix. Operating margin of 37.60% in Q1 2026 is particularly impressive for a fintech lender, though it's worth noting that Q3 2025's net margin of 61.09% was inflated by a one-time tax benefit of $33.64 million. The underlying trend of expanding margins is clear and sustainable, driven by scaling subscription revenue, reduced customer acquisition costs relative to revenue, and disciplined expense management.
The balance sheet is fortress-like, with a current ratio of 3.83, a debt-to-equity ratio of just 0.21, and $135.17 million in cash at the end of Q1 2026. Free cash flow on a trailing twelve-month basis is $326.50 million, and Q1 2026 alone generated $82.01 million in free cash flow on $82.03 million in operating cash flow, a remarkable 99.97% FCF conversion rate. ROE of 55.53% and ROA of 31.01% are exceptional by any standard, reflecting both high profitability and efficient capital deployment. The company is clearly generating more than enough cash to fund growth internally, and the $204.06 million in stock repurchases during Q1 2026 demonstrates management's confidence in the company's intrinsic value and commitment to returning capital to shareholders.
Quarterly Revenue
$158414000.0B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+46.7%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
86.9%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$326503000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is DAVE Overvalued?
Because Dave is solidly profitable with trailing net income of $57.94 million in the most recent quarter and positive EPS of $0.066, the PE ratio is the appropriate primary valuation metric. The trailing PE of 15.11x is remarkably low for a company growing revenue at 46.71% year-over-year, and the forward PE of 15.29x is essentially flat, implying that the market is not pricing in significant near-term earnings acceleration despite the company's strong growth trajectory. The PEG ratio of 0.07 is extraordinarily low, suggesting that the stock is deeply undervalued relative to its growth rate — a classic signal of a potential mispricing if the growth is sustainable.
Compared to the broader Software-Application industry, where price-to-sales multiples often range from 5x to 15x for high-growth companies, Dave's PS ratio of 5.34x and EV/Sales of 7.09x appear reasonable rather than stretched. The EV/EBITDA of 16.21x is moderate for a fintech platform with 86.69% gross margins and 37.60% operating margins, and the price-to-book ratio of 8.39x reflects the company's asset-light model and high ROE of 55.53%. The PB ratio is elevated but justified by the exceptional return on equity, which indicates that each dollar of book value is generating substantial earnings power.
Historically, Dave's valuation has been far more extreme: the PS ratio reached 27.23x in Q2 2025 and 18.27x in Q4 2025, while the PE ratio was 98.68x in Q2 2025 before compressing to 15.11x today. The current PE of 15.11x is near the low end of the company's historical range since reaching profitability, and the PS ratio of 5.34x is well below the 14.76x seen in Q1 2026 and the 18.27x in Q4 2025. This compression reflects both the stock's price consolidation and the rapid earnings growth that has caught up to the valuation, suggesting that the market is now pricing in a more mature, sustainable earnings profile rather than speculative growth — a potentially attractive setup if growth continues to exceed expectations.
PE
15.1x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 3x~142x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
16.2x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial and operational risks are moderate but manageable. The debt-to-equity ratio of 0.21 and current ratio of 3.83 indicate a strong balance sheet with minimal leverage, while $135.17M in cash and $326.50M TTM free cash flow provide ample liquidity. However, the company's revenue is heavily concentrated in the ExtraCash product, with subscription revenue of only $13.95M, meaning any disruption to the cash advance model could significantly impact growth. Additionally, the net margin of 36.57% in Q1 2026 benefited from a favorable revenue mix, but Q3 2025's 61.09% net margin was inflated by a one-time tax benefit of $33.64M, highlighting potential earnings volatility.
Market and competitive risks are elevated due to the stock's extreme volatility and premium valuation. With a beta of 3.84, DAVE is nearly four times as volatile as the broader market, and the maximum drawdown of -39.11% over the past year demonstrates the potential for sharp declines. The price-to-book ratio of 8.39x and EV/EBITDA of 16.21x are elevated, leaving little room for error if growth slows. Competitive pressures from traditional banks and other neobanks, as well as potential regulatory headwinds in the fintech lending space, could compress margins. Recent news of raising ExtraCash limits signals confidence, but also increases exposure to credit risk if borrowers default.
In a worst-case scenario, a combination of regulatory crackdown on cash advance products, rising credit losses from expanded ExtraCash limits, and a broader market downturn could trigger a severe selloff. Given the 52-week low of $152.21, a decline from the current price of $337.82 to that level would represent a loss of approximately -55%. The analyst low target of $350.00 is only 3.6% above the current price, suggesting limited downside protection from analysts. If the stock breaks below the $300 support level, it could quickly retrace to the $250-$270 zone, a decline of -20% to -26% from current levels.
FAQ
The key risks for DAVE, ranked by severity, are: (1) Regulatory risk: As a fintech lender offering cash advances, Dave faces potential regulatory crackdowns that could severely impact its ExtraCash revenue, which is the primary growth engine. (2) Competitive risk: Traditional banks and other neobanks could enter the cash advance space, compressing margins and slowing user growth. (3) Financial risk: The company's revenue is heavily concentrated in ExtraCash, with subscription revenue at only $13.95M; any disruption to this product could cause a sharp decline. (4) Market risk: With a beta of 3.84, DAVE is nearly four times as volatile as the market, and a broader downturn could trigger a 30-40% drawdown, as seen in the past year's -39.11% max drawdown. These risks are significant but partially mitigated by the strong balance sheet and cash flow.
The 12-month forecast for DAVE includes three scenarios: Bull case (30% probability) targets $458-$500, assuming revenue growth exceeds 50% and margins expand; Base case (50% probability) targets $400-$444, assuming steady 35-45% revenue growth and stable margins; Bear case (20% probability) targets $152-$250, assuming regulatory issues and growth deceleration. The base case is most likely, with the stock expected to reach the analyst average target of $444.21, implying 31.5% upside. The key assumption behind the base case is that Dave sustains its revenue growth trajectory and maintains net margins above 30%, with no major regulatory disruptions. However, given the high beta, investors should be prepared for volatility along the way.
DAVE appears undervalued on both absolute and relative bases. The trailing PE of 15.11x is remarkably low for a company growing revenue at 46.71% YoY, and the PEG ratio of 0.07 is far below the typical 1.0 threshold for fair value. The PS ratio of 5.34x is well below the 14.76x seen in Q1 2026 and 18.27x in Q4 2025, indicating significant multiple compression despite improving fundamentals. Compared to the software industry, where high-growth companies often trade at 5x-15x sales, DAVE's 5.34x PS is at the low end. The market seems to be pricing in a mature, sustainable earnings profile rather than speculative growth, which may be overly conservative given the company's 86.69% gross margin and 55.53% ROE. If growth continues, the stock could re-rate higher.
From a risk/reward perspective, DAVE appears to be a good buy for investors who can tolerate high volatility. The stock trades at $337.82, with analyst average target of $444.21 implying 31.5% upside, and a PEG ratio of 0.07 suggests deep undervaluation relative to its 46.71% revenue growth. The company's profitability inflection, with a 36.57% net margin and $326.50M TTM free cash flow, provides a strong fundamental foundation. However, the biggest downside risk is regulatory or competitive pressure on its ExtraCash product, which could compress margins and slow growth. Additionally, the beta of 3.84 means the stock can swing wildly; a market downturn could easily push it down 30-40%. Therefore, it is a good buy for aggressive growth investors with a long-term horizon, but position sizing should be conservative.
DAVE is more suitable for long-term investment (at least 2-3 years) rather than short-term trading, due to its high volatility and early-stage growth profile. The company is still in a rapid growth phase, with revenue growing at 46.71% YoY, and it does not pay dividends (payout ratio 0%), so returns depend entirely on capital appreciation. The beta of 3.84 and max drawdown of -39.11% make short-term trading extremely risky, as sharp reversals can occur quickly. For long-term investors, the profitability inflection and strong free cash flow generation provide a solid foundation for compounding, but they must tolerate significant price swings. A minimum holding period of 2-3 years is recommended to ride out volatility and allow the company's growth to materialize.