Darden Restaurants
DRI
$201.10
-1.66%
Darden Restaurants is the largest global full-service dining operator, owning and operating over 2,150 company-owned restaurants across 10 brands including Olive Garden, LongHorn Steakhouse, and The Capital Grille. The company commands a dominant market position in the casual and fine dining segments, with Olive Garden alone contributing 43% of sales. The current investor narrative centers on Darden's ability to sustain traffic and margin growth amid a shifting consumer landscape where casual dining is gaining share from fast food, as evidenced by recent industry commentary highlighting Chili's same-store sales growth. Additionally, the stock's 1-year decline of 6.8% versus the S&P 500's gain of 19.1% has sparked debate about whether the underperformance is a buying opportunity or reflects structural headwinds.…
DRI
Darden Restaurants
$201.10
Related headlines
DRI 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Darden Restaurants's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $261.43 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$261.43
3 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
3
covering this stock
Price Range
$161 - $261
Analyst target range
With only 3 analysts providing estimates, coverage is limited, but the consensus is bullish. The average EPS estimate for the current fiscal year is $14.38, with a low of $14.18 and high of $14.49. The average revenue estimate is $16.32 billion, implying a 5.6% increase from the prior year. The limited analyst coverage suggests Darden is a large-cap stock with moderate institutional interest, which can lead to less efficient price discovery. The narrow range of EPS estimates (2.2% spread) indicates high conviction among covering analysts. Recent ratings from major firms (Citigroup, BTIG, Barclays, Evercore, Keybanc, Deutsche Bank) are all Buy or Overweight, while Stephens & Co., Wells Fargo, and Baird rate it Equal Weight/Neutral, reflecting a generally positive but not overly exuberant sentiment.
DRI Technical Analysis
Darden's stock is in a recovery uptrend from its 52-week low of $169.00, currently trading at $204.32, which is 92.6% of the 52-week range (midpoint of $194.83). The 1-year price change of -6.84% contrasts with the S&P 500's +19.1%, indicating significant relative underperformance, but the stock has rebounded 20.9% from the low, suggesting a potential trend reversal. The current price sits above the midpoint, implying bullish momentum but not yet at overbought levels near the high of $220.65.
Beta
0.58
0.58x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-25.1%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$169-$221
Price range past year
Annual Return
-7.6%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | DRI Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +2.6% | +0.8% |
| 3m | +2.4% | +9.6% |
| 6m | -0.6% | +7.4% |
| 1y | -7.6% | +20.2% |
| ytd | +7.4% | +9.3% |
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DRI Fundamental Analysis
Darden's revenue trajectory shows steady growth, with Q3 FY2026 revenue of $3,345 million, up 5.9% year-over-year from $3,158 million in the prior-year quarter. The trailing twelve-month revenue is approximately $12.8 billion, driven by Olive Garden ($1,393M in Q3) and LongHorn Steakhouse ($854M). Growth is decelerating slightly from the 6.0% pace in Q2 FY2026, but remains positive, supported by menu price increases and traffic gains in casual dining. The company is profitable, with net income of $306.8 million in Q3 FY2026 and a net margin of 9.2%, which is healthy for the restaurant industry. Gross margin was 69.4% in Q2 FY2026 but compressed to 18.0% in Q3 due to higher food costs; however, operating margin improved to 13.2% in Q3 from 10.3% in Q2, indicating effective cost control. Darden maintains a strong balance sheet with free cash flow of $1,565 million TTM, providing ample liquidity for dividends and share repurchases. The debt-to-equity ratio of 2.74 is elevated but manageable given the stable cash flows, and the current ratio of 0.31 is low, typical for restaurant companies with high inventory turnover. ROE of 54.7% reflects efficient use of equity, though leverage amplifies returns.
Quarterly Revenue
$3.3B
2026-02
Revenue YoY Growth
+0.05%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.17%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$1.6B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is DRI Overvalued?
Since net income is positive, the PE ratio is the primary valuation metric. The trailing PE is 19.3x, while the forward PE is 16.5x, implying the market expects earnings growth of approximately 17% over the next year. The gap between trailing and forward PE suggests optimism about near-term earnings acceleration. Compared to the restaurant industry average PE of approximately 22x, Darden trades at a 12% discount, which may be justified by its slower growth relative to fast-casual peers but undervalued given its stable margins and market leadership. Historically, Darden's trailing PE has ranged from 12x to 24x over the past five years; the current 19.3x is near the midpoint, indicating neither extreme overvaluation nor deep value. The PEG ratio of 1.13 suggests the stock is fairly valued relative to its growth rate.
PE
19.3x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range 12x~24x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
12.4x
Enterprise Value Multiple

