Evercore Partners
EVR
$342.20
+2.41%
Evercore is a leading independent investment banking advisory firm that generates most of its revenue through merger and acquisition and restructuring advisory services, with much smaller capital raising, equities trading, and investment management businesses. Founded in 1995, it has built a reputation for advising on some of the world's largest and most complex transactions, positioning itself as a high-touch, conflict-free alternative to bulge-bracket banks. The current investor narrative centers on the cyclical recovery in M&A activity, with Evercore's revenue surging 32.4% year-over-year in the most recent quarter, while the stock has rallied 21.2% over the past year. Debate remains around the sustainability of deal flow momentum and whether the current valuation adequately reflects potential headwinds from regulatory shifts or economic uncertainty.…
EVR
Evercore Partners
$342.20
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Investment Opinion: Should I buy EVR Today?
Rating: Buy. Thesis: Evercore is a high-quality cyclical play on M&A recovery with accelerating revenue, expanding margins, and attractive valuation on forward earnings. The analyst consensus leans bullish (1 Buy, 1 Outperform, 1 Neutral) with an average EPS estimate of $22.75 for next fiscal year.
Supporting Evidence: Revenue grew 32.4% YoY in Q4 2025, accelerating from prior quarters. Operating margin expanded to 33.2% from 21.8% a year ago. The forward P/E of 14.74x is below the sector forward average of ~16x, and the PEG ratio of 0.40x suggests undervaluation relative to growth. Free cash flow of $1.182B TTM provides strong financial flexibility. ROE of 29.1% is well above the financial sector average, indicating efficient capital use.
Risks & Conditions: The biggest risks are a slowdown in M&A activity, multiple compression from elevated trailing P/E, and high beta amplifying downside. This Buy would downgrade to Hold if revenue growth decelerates below 15% YoY or if the forward P/E exceeds 18x. Upgrade to Strong Buy if the PEG ratio remains below 0.5x and revenue growth accelerates above 30%. Valuation verdict: The stock is fairly valued on a forward P/E basis but slightly overvalued on trailing metrics relative to history. Overall, the risk/reward is favorable given the growth trajectory.
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EVR 12-Month Price Forecast
Evercore is well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing M&A recovery, with strong revenue acceleration and margin expansion. The forward P/E of 14.74x is attractive relative to growth, and the PEG ratio of 0.40x supports the bullish case. However, the high beta of 1.49 and cyclical nature of the business warrant caution. The base case of moderate growth is most likely, but the bull case has a meaningful probability if the macro environment remains supportive. The stance would upgrade to strong bullish if revenue growth exceeds 30% for two consecutive quarters, and downgrade to neutral if growth decelerates below 15%.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Evercore Partners's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $444.86 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$444.86
3 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
3
covering this stock
Price Range
$274 - $445
Analyst target range
Evercore is covered by 3 analysts, with a consensus leaning bullish: the distribution includes 1 Buy (Goldman Sachs), 1 Outperform (Keefe, Bruyette & Woods), and 1 Neutral (UBS), with no Sell ratings. The average estimated EPS for the next fiscal year is $22.75, and the average revenue estimate is $6.11 billion. Based on the current price of $342.64, the implied upside to the average target is not directly calculable without explicit price targets, but the consensus recommendation suggests a positive outlook. The average EPS estimate implies a forward P/E of 15.1x, which is below the trailing multiple, indicating expected earnings growth. The analyst sentiment is cautiously optimistic, with no recent downgrades and several reiterations of existing ratings. The target range for EPS estimates spans from $20.05 (low) to $25.75 (high), implying a wide spread of 28.4% between the low and high. This wide range signals significant uncertainty about the pace of M&A recovery and the sustainability of Evercore's earnings. The high estimate likely assumes a continued robust deal environment, while the low estimate may factor in a slowdown or regulatory headwinds. The lack of explicit price targets in the data limits the ability to calculate upside/downside, but the EPS range suggests analysts have divergent views on the company's near-term prospects. The narrow analyst coverage (3 analysts) is typical for a mid-cap stock, which can lead to higher volatility and less efficient price discovery compared to larger peers.
Bulls vs Bears: EVR Investment Factors
Evercore presents a compelling cyclical growth story with accelerating revenue, expanding margins, and strong cash flow generation. The bull case is supported by a 32.4% YoY revenue surge, operating margin expansion to 33.2%, and a PEG ratio of 0.40x suggesting undervaluation relative to growth. However, the bear case highlights elevated trailing P/E of 22.25x above historical median, cyclical dependency on M&A, and high volatility (beta 1.49). The single most important tension is whether the current M&A recovery is sustainable or a temporary cyclical peak. If deal activity continues to accelerate, the forward P/E of 14.74x offers upside; if it stalls, the stock could re-rate lower. Currently, the bull case has stronger evidence given the accelerating revenue trend and strong profitability, but investors must monitor macro and regulatory developments closely.
Bullish
- Revenue Growth Accelerating: Revenue surged 32.4% YoY in Q4 2025 to $1.297B, accelerating from 24.3% in Q3 and 19.8% a year ago, driven by a strong M&A advisory rebound.
- Expanding Profit Margins: Operating margin expanded to 33.2% in Q4 2025 from 21.8% in Q4 2024, demonstrating significant operating leverage as revenue growth outpaces expense growth.
- Strong Free Cash Flow Generation: Trailing twelve-month free cash flow is $1.182B, providing ample capacity for dividends ($32.5M quarterly) and share buybacks ($174.2M in Q4 2025).
- Attractive PEG Ratio: With a PEG ratio of 0.40x, the stock appears undervalued relative to its expected earnings growth, as a PEG below 1.0 typically signals undervaluation.
Bearish
- Cyclical Revenue Dependency: Evercore's revenue is heavily tied to M&A advisory fees, which are cyclical and sensitive to economic downturns. A slowdown in dealmaking could sharply reduce revenue.
- Elevated Trailing P/E: The trailing P/E of 22.25x is above the 5-year median of ~15x and represents a 24% premium to the sector median of ~18x, suggesting the stock is not cheap historically.
- High Beta and Volatility: With a beta of 1.49, the stock is 49% more volatile than the S&P 500, meaning larger drawdowns during market downturns, as seen with a 30.26% max drawdown.
- Wide Analyst EPS Estimates: Analyst EPS estimates range from $20.05 to $25.75, a 28.4% spread, indicating significant uncertainty about the sustainability of M&A recovery and earnings.
EVR Technical Analysis
Evercore is in a sustained uptrend over the past year, with a 1-year price change of +21.2%, though the stock has experienced significant volatility. The current price of $342.64 sits at 44.1% of its 52-week range (low $265.87, high $388.71), indicating it is closer to the midpoint than the extremes. This positioning suggests the stock is neither overextended nor deeply undervalued, but rather in a consolidation phase after recovering from a sharp drawdown earlier in the year. The 52-week low was set in March 2026, and the subsequent recovery has been choppy, reflecting uncertainty about the pace of M&A recovery. Short-term momentum is mixed: the 1-month price change is -1.3%, while the 3-month change is +12.4%, indicating a deceleration from the strong rally seen in April and May. The 1-month decline contrasts with the 1-year uptrend, suggesting a short-term pullback within a longer-term bullish structure. The relative strength versus the S&P 500 over 1 month is -2.4%, underperforming the market, but over 1 year it is +208.6%, showing strong long-term relative outperformance. This divergence could signal a temporary pause or mean reversion, rather than a trend reversal. Key support is at the 52-week low of $265.87, a level tested in March 2026, while resistance is at the 52-week high of $388.71. A breakout above $388.71 would signal a resumption of the uptrend and likely attract momentum buyers, while a breakdown below $265.87 could indicate a structural deterioration. With a beta of 1.49, Evercore is 49% more volatile than the S&P 500, meaning larger swings in both directions, which is typical for cyclical financial stocks and requires careful position sizing.
Beta
1.49
1.49x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-30.3%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$266-$389
Price range past year
Annual Return
+16.9%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | EVR Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -4.2% | +1.4% |
| 3m | -4.2% | +7.4% |
| 6m | -10.7% | +8.6% |
| 1y | +16.9% | +20.3% |
| ytd | -2.6% | +10.3% |
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EVR Fundamental Analysis
Evercore's revenue trajectory is strongly accelerating, with the most recent quarterly revenue of $1.297 billion representing a 32.4% year-over-year growth rate, up from 24.3% in the prior quarter and 19.8% a year ago. This acceleration is driven by a rebound in M&A advisory fees, which dominate the Investment Banking and Equities segment ($1.265 billion in the latest quarter). The Investment Management segment contributed $22.8 million, a small but stable component. The multi-quarter trend shows revenue growing from $585 million in Q1 2024 to $1.297 billion in Q4 2025, a compound quarterly growth rate of 17.3%, indicating a robust cyclical upswing. For the investment case, this growth trajectory supports the thesis that Evercore is benefiting from a recovery in global dealmaking, but investors should monitor whether this pace is sustainable given potential macro headwinds. Profitability is strong and improving: net income for the latest quarter was $203.95 million, with a net margin of 15.7%, up from 14.3% in the prior year quarter. Gross margin remains exceptionally high at 99.3%, typical for advisory firms with low cost of goods sold. Operating margin expanded to 33.2% in Q4 2025 from 21.8% in Q4 2024, reflecting operating leverage as revenue grows faster than expenses. The company is clearly profitable and generating substantial earnings, with diluted EPS of $4.76 in the latest quarter. The balance sheet is healthy: debt-to-equity is 0.57, indicating moderate leverage, and the current ratio is 5.80, suggesting ample liquidity. Free cash flow for the trailing twelve months is $1.182 billion, providing strong internal funding for growth and shareholder returns. Return on equity (ROE) is 29.1%, well above the financial sector average, reflecting efficient capital use. The company generated $807.5 million in operating cash flow in Q4 2025 alone, easily covering capital expenditures of $8.9 million and dividends of $32.5 million, with plenty left for share buybacks ($174.2 million in the quarter).
Quarterly Revenue
$1.3B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+32.4%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
99.3%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$1.2B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is EVR Overvalued?
Since Evercore has positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is 22.25x, while the forward P/E is 14.74x, implying the market expects significant earnings growth in the coming year. The gap between trailing and forward P/E suggests analysts anticipate a sharp increase in earnings, likely driven by continued M&A recovery. Compared to the industry average (Financial - Capital Markets), Evercore's trailing P/E of 22.25x is at a premium to the sector median of approximately 18x (based on available data), representing a 24% premium. This premium is justified by Evercore's superior profitability (net margin of 15.3% vs. industry average of ~12%) and its leading position in independent advisory. However, the forward P/E of 14.74x is actually below the sector forward average of ~16x, indicating that the market may be pricing in a normalization of earnings after a cyclical peak. Historically, Evercore's trailing P/E has ranged from 4.4x (Q4 2021) to 31.7x (Q2 2023), with the current 22.25x near the middle of that range. The current P/E is above the 5-year median of approximately 15x, suggesting the stock is not cheap by historical standards. However, the PEG ratio of 0.40x (based on estimated EPS growth) indicates that the stock may be undervalued relative to its growth rate, as a PEG below 1.0 typically signals undervaluation. The P/B ratio of 7.43x is elevated relative to the historical average of ~4x, reflecting the market's willingness to pay a premium for Evercore's high ROE and intangible assets.
PE
22.3x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range 4x~32x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
18.4x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: Evercore's revenue is heavily concentrated in M&A advisory, which is cyclical and volatile. In Q4 2025, revenue surged 32.4% YoY, but a downturn could reverse this quickly. The company's operating margin of 33.2% is high but sensitive to deal flow; a 10% drop in revenue could compress margins significantly. Debt-to-equity of 0.57 is manageable, but the high payout ratio of 24.4% could limit flexibility if earnings decline. Free cash flow of $1.182B TTM provides a cushion, but a prolonged M&A drought would pressure both revenue and cash generation.
Market & Competitive Risks: The stock's trailing P/E of 22.25x is above the 5-year median of ~15x, leaving it vulnerable to multiple compression if growth disappoints. With a beta of 1.49, the stock is highly correlated with market cycles, and a broad market selloff could amplify losses. Competition from bulge-bracket banks with larger balance sheets could pressure market share, though Evercore's independent model is a differentiator. Regulatory risks, such as increased antitrust enforcement, could reduce M&A volumes. The stock's 1-month relative strength of -2.4% vs. S&P 500 suggests near-term underperformance.
Worst-Case Scenario: A severe economic downturn or regulatory crackdown on M&A could cause deal activity to plummet, leading to a sharp revenue decline. In such a scenario, the stock could fall to its 52-week low of $265.87, representing a 22.4% downside from the current price of $342.64. If earnings contract to the low analyst estimate of $20.05 EPS, the stock could trade at a P/E of 13.3x (sector average), implying a price of ~$267, close to the 52-week low. Historical max drawdown of 30.26% suggests a potential loss of up to 30% from current levels in a severe downturn.
FAQ
The key risks are: 1) Cyclical revenue dependency on M&A advisory, which can decline sharply during economic downturns (revenue grew 32.4% YoY in Q4 2025 but could reverse). 2) Valuation risk: trailing P/E of 22.25x is above historical median, leaving room for multiple compression if growth disappoints. 3) High volatility: beta of 1.49 means the stock is 49% more volatile than the market, with a historical max drawdown of 30.26%. 4) Regulatory risk: increased antitrust scrutiny could reduce deal volumes. 5) Analyst uncertainty: EPS estimates range from $20.05 to $25.75, a 28.4% spread, indicating low visibility. The most severe risk is a prolonged M&A drought, which could push the stock to the 52-week low of $265.87, a 22.4% downside from current levels.
The 12-month forecast is based on three scenarios: Bull case (30% probability) targets $380-$420, driven by accelerating M&A activity and margin expansion. Base case (50% probability) targets $330-$380, assuming moderate growth of 15-20% YoY. Bear case (20% probability) targets $265-$310, if M&A slows due to economic or regulatory headwinds. The base case is most likely, supported by the current revenue acceleration and analyst consensus EPS estimate of $22.75, implying a forward P/E of 15.1x. The stock currently trades at $342.64, near the midpoint of the base case range. Key assumptions include sustained M&A volumes, stable interest rates, and no major regulatory changes. The AI assessment is bullish with medium confidence, citing strong growth metrics and attractive forward valuation.
Evercore's valuation is mixed: the trailing P/E of 22.25x is above the 5-year median of ~15x and represents a 24% premium to the sector median of ~18x, suggesting it is not cheap on a historical basis. However, the forward P/E of 14.74x is below the sector forward average of ~16x, indicating that the market expects significant earnings growth. The PEG ratio of 0.40x (based on estimated EPS growth) is well below 1.0, which typically signals undervaluation relative to growth. The P/B ratio of 7.43x is elevated versus the historical average of ~4x, reflecting the market's willingness to pay a premium for high ROE (29.1%). Overall, the stock appears fairly valued on a forward basis but slightly overvalued on trailing metrics, with the valuation implying that the market expects a continued strong M&A cycle.
Evercore is a good buy for investors with a higher risk tolerance seeking cyclical exposure to the M&A recovery. The stock offers a forward P/E of 14.74x, which is below the sector average of ~16x, and a PEG ratio of 0.40x, suggesting undervaluation relative to expected earnings growth. Revenue is accelerating at 32.4% YoY, and operating margins are expanding. However, the trailing P/E of 22.25x is above historical medians, and the stock's beta of 1.49 implies significant volatility. The biggest downside risk is a slowdown in M&A activity, which could lead to a 22% decline to the 52-week low of $265.87. For long-term investors with a 12-24 month horizon, the risk/reward is favorable given the growth trajectory and attractive forward valuation.
EVR is best suited for medium-term investment (12-24 months) given its cyclical nature and high beta of 1.49. Short-term trading is possible but risky due to volatility (1-month price change of -1.3% and 3-month change of +12.4%). The stock's dividend yield of 0.96% is modest, so it is not an income play. Long-term holding beyond 2-3 years carries cyclical risk, as M&A activity can peak and decline. However, Evercore's strong market position, high ROE (29.1%), and free cash flow generation ($1.182B TTM) support a buy-and-hold strategy through cycles. A suggested minimum holding period is 12 months to allow the M&A recovery to materialize. The stock is suitable for growth-oriented investors who can tolerate drawdowns and have a medium-term horizon.