Evercore Partners
EVR
$281.21
-0.85%
Evercore Inc. is a leading independent investment banking advisory firm, primarily providing merger and acquisition and restructuring advisory services, with smaller capital raising, equities trading, and investment management operations. Founded in 1995, it has built a reputation for advising on some of the world's largest and most complex transactions, competing effectively with bulge-bracket banks through its conflict-free, high-touch advisory model. The current investor narrative centers on the cyclical recovery of M&A activity, which drives Evercore's revenue, and the firm's ability to capitalize on a rebound in deal-making after a period of sluggishness. Recent quarterly results show a significant revenue surge, but the stock has declined over the past year, reflecting concerns about the sustainability of this growth amid broader market volatility and a slowdown in global M&A volumes.…
EVR
Evercore Partners
$281.21
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Investment Opinion: Should I buy EVR Today?
Based on the data, Evercore merits a Buy rating, supported by a forward PE of 13.2x, a PEG of 0.40, and analyst targets implying 22% upside. The Q1 2026 revenue growth of 100% YoY and operating margin expansion to 20.5% demonstrate strong execution. The stock's underperformance versus the S&P 500 (-25% relative strength) creates a potential entry point for investors willing to tolerate volatility. This rating would be downgraded to Hold if M&A volumes decelerate, causing revenue growth to fall below 20% YoY, or if the stock rises above $350 without corresponding earnings upgrades. Conversely, an upgrade to Strong Buy would be warranted if the forward PE drops below 10x or if the company announces a major strategic initiative. Overall, EVR appears undervalued relative to its growth prospects, though the cyclicality warrants caution.
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EVR 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI model assesses EVR as bullish with medium confidence, driven by exceptional revenue growth and a compelling valuation. The forward PE of 13.2x and PEG of 0.40x indicate that the market is not fully pricing in the earnings recovery. However, the high beta and cyclicality introduce uncertainty, and the stock's recent underperformance suggests that investors are cautious. The stance would be upgraded to high confidence if Q2 2026 revenue exceeds $1.5 billion and the stock breaks above $350. Conversely, a downgrade to neutral would occur if revenue growth decelerates below 30% YoY or the stock falls below $280.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Evercore Partners's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $363.90 and implied upside of +29.4% versus the current price.
Average Target
$363.90
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+29.4%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$303 - $391
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage is moderate, with 10 analysts providing targets. The consensus recommendation is not available, but the average target price is $363.90, implying an upside of approximately 22.1% from the current price of $297.92. The target range is from $303.00 (low) to $391.00 (high), with the high target suggesting a potential 31.2% upside, while the low target indicates a modest 1.7% upside. The wide spread between low and high targets reflects uncertainty about the pace of M&A recovery and the sustainability of recent revenue growth. Recent ratings actions show no major changes, with firms like Goldman Sachs maintaining a Buy and UBS a Neutral, indicating a cautiously optimistic stance.
Bulls vs Bears: EVR Investment Factors
Evercore presents a classic cyclical recovery opportunity, with Q1 2026 revenue doubling YoY and a forward PE of 13.2x suggesting undervaluation. However, the stock's poor price performance and high beta indicate that investors are skeptical about the sustainability of this growth. The bull case rests on continued M&A momentum and earnings expansion, while the bear case highlights revenue concentration and macro sensitivity. Currently, the evidence slightly favors the bulls given the strong earnings growth and attractive valuation, but the key tension is whether the recent revenue surge is a sustainable upcycle or a temporary spike. If M&A volumes remain robust, the stock could re-rate higher; if they fade, the current price may still be too high.
Bullish
- Revenue Doubled YoY in Q1 2026: Q1 2026 revenue surged 100.35% YoY to $1.40 billion, with sequential growth from $1.30B in Q4 2025 and $1.05B in Q3 2025, signaling a robust M&A rebound. This acceleration demonstrates the firm's high operating leverage to a recovering deal environment.
- Forward PE of 13.2x with PEG of 0.40: The forward PE of 13.19x is well below the trailing PE of 22.25x, implying the market expects substantial earnings growth. A PEG ratio of 0.40x suggests the stock is undervalued relative to its projected growth, offering a compelling risk-reward for growth investors.
- Analyst Targets Imply 22% Upside: The average analyst target of $363.90 represents a 22.1% upside from the current price of $297.92, with the high target of $391.00 implying a 31.2% gain. This consensus view reflects confidence in continued M&A recovery and earnings momentum.
- Strong Profitability and Cash Flow: Operating margin improved to 20.5% in Q1 2026, up from 16.0% a year earlier, while free cash flow TTM stands at $1.52 billion. Net margin of 15.3% and ROE of 29.1% demonstrate efficient capital use and earnings quality.
Bearish
- Stock Down 6.4% Over Past Year: EVR has declined 6.36% over the past year, underperforming the S&P 500's +18.65% gain by a wide margin. The stock trades near the lower end of its 52-week range (31% of range), reflecting persistent bearish sentiment despite strong fundamentals.
- High Beta of 1.48 Amplifies Market Risk: With a beta of 1.484, EVR is significantly more volatile than the market, making it sensitive to economic downturns and shifts in risk appetite. This amplifies downside risk during market corrections, as seen in the 30.26% max drawdown.
- Revenue Concentration in Advisory Fees: Investment Banking and Equities generated $1.37 billion of Q1 revenue (98% of total), while Investment Management contributed only $22.8 million. This heavy reliance on M&A advisory makes earnings highly cyclical and vulnerable to deal flow disruptions.
- Recent Price Momentum Negative: The stock has fallen 6.54% in the past month and 12.23% in the past three months, with relative strength versus the S&P 500 at -25% over one year. This negative momentum could persist if the M&A recovery stalls or market conditions worsen.
EVR Technical Analysis
Evercore's stock is in a clear downtrend over the past year, with a 1-year price change of -6.36%, underperforming the S&P 500's +18.65% gain. The current price of $297.92 sits at approximately 31% of its 52-week range (between $265.87 low and $388.71 high), indicating the stock is trading near the lower end of its yearly range. This positioning suggests a bearish sentiment, with the stock having lost significant ground from its highs, potentially presenting a value opportunity if fundamentals stabilize, but also risking further downside if the downtrend persists.
Beta
1.48
1.48x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-30.3%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$266-$389
Price range past year
Annual Return
-18.1%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | EVR Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -6.2% | -1.1% |
| 3m | -21.3% | +3.0% |
| 6m | +4.8% | +15.4% |
| 1y | -18.1% | +16.2% |
| ytd | -19.9% | +12.1% |
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EVR Fundamental Analysis
Evercore's revenue trajectory has been robust, with the most recent quarter (Q1 2026) reporting revenue of $1.40 billion, a 100.35% year-over-year increase, and a sequential acceleration from $1.30 billion in Q4 2025 and $1.05 billion in Q3 2025. This growth is driven by a surge in M&A advisory fees, as evidenced by the Investment Banking and Equities segment generating $1.37 billion in revenue, while Investment Management contributed only $22.8 million. The strong revenue growth suggests a cyclical recovery in deal-making, which is positive for the investment case, though the sustainability of this pace is uncertain given the lumpy nature of advisory revenues.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.4B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+100.4%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
98.0%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$1.5B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is EVR Overvalued?
Given Evercore's positive net income, the PE ratio is the primary valuation metric. The trailing PE is 22.25x, while the forward PE is 13.19x, indicating the market expects significant earnings growth in the next year. This gap implies that the market is pricing in a strong recovery in earnings, which aligns with the recent revenue surge. The PEG ratio of 0.40x suggests that the stock is undervalued relative to its expected growth rate, supporting a bullish stance if growth materializes.
PE
22.3x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range 4x~32x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
18.4x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financially, Evercore's earnings are highly cyclical, as evidenced by the 100% YoY revenue growth in Q1 2026, which could reverse sharply if deal-making slows. The firm carries a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.57, which is manageable but not negligible, and its operating margin of 20.5% could compress if revenue declines. With a payout ratio of 24.4%, the dividend is safe but not a major support. The reliance on advisory fees creates lumpy revenue, as seen in the wide swings from $699M in Q1 2025 to $1.40B in Q1 2026, making earnings predictability low.
FAQ
The key risks for EVR include: 1) Cyclicality of M&A revenues, which can drop sharply in economic downturns (as seen in the 30% max drawdown). 2) High beta of 1.48, making the stock more volatile than the market. 3) Revenue concentration in advisory fees, with 98% of Q1 revenue from investment banking, leaving little diversification. 4) Regulatory and geopolitical risks that could hinder deal-making. The most severe risk is a prolonged M&A slowdown, which could cause earnings to fall and the stock to drop to the 52-week low of $265.87, a potential 11% downside from the current price.
The 12-month forecast for EVR is moderately bullish, with a base case probability of 50% targeting a price range of $330-$364, aligning with the analyst average of $363.90. The bull case (30% probability) sees the stock reaching $363-$391 if M&A activity accelerates, while the bear case (20% probability) could see it fall to $266-$303 if deal-making stalls. The most likely scenario is that the current momentum continues, driving earnings growth and a re-rating toward the average target. Investors should monitor quarterly revenue trends and M&A announcements to gauge which scenario is unfolding.
Based on the data, EVR appears undervalued relative to its growth prospects. The forward PE of 13.19x is significantly lower than the trailing PE of 22.25x, indicating that the market expects strong earnings growth. The PEG ratio of 0.40x suggests that the stock is trading at a discount to its growth rate, which is typically considered undervalued. Compared to the broader market, EVR's forward PE is below the S&P 500's average of around 20x. The market is pricing in a recovery in M&A activity, but if that recovery is sustained, the stock could re-rate higher. However, the low PE also reflects the cyclical risks inherent in the business.
EVR appears to be a good buy for investors with a medium-to-long-term horizon and a tolerance for volatility. The stock trades at a forward PE of 13.2x, which is low relative to its expected growth, and analysts see a 22% upside to the average target of $363.90. The main risk is the cyclicality of M&A revenues, which could cause earnings to drop if deal-making slows. However, the recent 100% YoY revenue growth and strong operating leverage suggest that the current upcycle has room to run. For those who believe M&A activity will remain robust, EVR offers an attractive risk-reward.
EVR is better suited for long-term investment, given its cyclical nature and high beta of 1.48. Short-term trading is risky due to the stock's volatility, as seen in the 6.5% monthly decline. However, for investors with a 3-5 year horizon, the current valuation (forward PE of 13.2x) and growth potential offer an attractive entry point. The company's strong market position and operating leverage should drive earnings growth over the cycle. A minimum holding period of 3 years is recommended to ride out the cyclicality and benefit from the M&A recovery. Dividend yield of 0.96% provides a small income cushion, but the primary return driver is capital appreciation.