FANG

Diamondback Energy

$191.60

+4.48%
Jul 13, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Diamondback Energy is a crude oil and natural gas exploration and production company with a pure-play focus on the Permian Basin in the United States. It has established itself as a top-tier independent producer through disciplined acquisition and operational excellence, most notably completing a $26 billion merger with Endeavor Energy Resources in September 2024 that doubled its acreage position. The current investor narrative centers on the company's ability to generate substantial cash flow amid elevated oil prices driven by geopolitical tensions, while also navigating the integration of the Endeavor acquisition and the associated debt reduction. Recent news highlights Diamondback as a key beneficiary of potential fuel shortages and the Strait of Hormuz blockade, positioning it as a critical hedge against supply disruptions.

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FANG 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $191.60
Average Target $191.60
High Target $220.34
Low Target $162.86

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Diamondback Energy's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $249.08 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$249.08

3 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

3

covering this stock

Price Range

$153 - $249

Analyst target range

Buy
0 (0%)
Hold
1 (33%)
Sell
2 (67%)

Only 3 analysts cover Diamondback Energy, which is low for a large-cap stock, potentially due to its recent merger or sector specialization. The consensus recommendation is not explicitly provided, but the average estimated EPS of $16.91 for the next fiscal year implies a forward P/E of 10.8x, which is attractive. The average revenue estimate of $16.26 billion suggests 8.7% growth from trailing revenue. The implied upside from the current price of $183.39 to the average target is not calculable without a target price, but the EPS estimates suggest confidence in earnings recovery. The estimated EPS range of $15.20 to $19.51 indicates some uncertainty, with the high end implying a forward P/E of 9.4x and the low end implying 12.1x. The limited analyst coverage means the stock may be less efficiently priced, offering opportunities for active investors. Institutional ratings show a uniformly bullish stance, with firms like Susquehanna, Wells Fargo, and Truist maintaining positive ratings, suggesting strong conviction among those who cover the stock.

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FANG Technical Analysis

Diamondback Energy is in a sustained uptrend over the past year, with a 1-year price change of +28.2%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's +20.6% gain. The current price of $183.39 sits at 67% of its 52-week range ($134.30–$214.51), indicating the stock is in the upper half but not overextended, suggesting room for further upside if momentum continues. The stock's beta of 0.407 implies it is less volatile than the market, making it a relatively defensive energy play. Short-term momentum has weakened, with a 1-month price change of -6.7% and a 3-month change of -2.6%, diverging from the strong 1-year trend. This pullback from the 52-week high of $214.51 in early May 2026 may reflect profit-taking or a temporary correction, but the relative strength versus the S&P 500 over 1 year remains positive at +7.6%. The 6-month change of +24.4% still supports a bullish intermediate-term view. Key support is at the 52-week low of $134.30, while resistance is at the 52-week high of $214.51. A breakout above $214.51 would signal a resumption of the uptrend, potentially targeting new highs, while a breakdown below $134.30 would indicate a bearish reversal. With a beta of 0.407, the stock is significantly less volatile than the market, which may appeal to risk-averse investors seeking energy exposure.

Beta

0.41

0.41x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-19.5%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$134-$215

Price range past year

Annual Return

+32.8%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodFANG ReturnS&P 500
1m-0.3%+1.0%
3m+2.7%+7.9%
6m+24.6%+8.5%
1y+32.8%+20.1%
ytd+25.8%+9.9%

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FANG Fundamental Analysis

Revenue has shown a mixed trajectory, with the most recent quarter (Q4 2025) reporting $3.376 billion, down -8.7% year-over-year from $3.696 billion in Q4 2024. However, the trailing twelve-month revenue of $14.96 billion reflects the impact of the Endeavor merger, which boosted scale. The multi-quarter trend shows revenue declining from $4.031 billion in Q1 2025 to $3.376 billion in Q4 2025, likely due to lower oil prices or production adjustments. The company's revenue is entirely derived from upstream services, making it highly sensitive to commodity prices. Profitability has been volatile: net income swung from a profit of $1.405 billion in Q1 2025 to a loss of -$1.458 billion in Q4 2025, driven by impairment charges or hedging losses. Gross margin compressed from 45.0% in Q1 2025 to 24.3% in Q4 2025, indicating cost pressures or lower realizations. The net margin turned negative at -43.2% in Q4 2025, but the trailing twelve-month net margin of 11.1% suggests underlying profitability. The balance sheet shows a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.40, which is manageable, and free cash flow of $1.36 billion over the trailing twelve months, providing ample liquidity. However, the current ratio of 0.42 indicates low short-term liquidity, though this is typical for E&P companies. ROE of 4.5% is modest, reflecting the recent loss, but the company's ability to generate cash flow supports its dividend yield of 2.66%.

Quarterly Revenue

$3.4B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

-8.7%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

24.3%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$1.4B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Upstream Services Segment

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Valuation Analysis: Is FANG Overvalued?

Since net income is positive on a trailing twelve-month basis ($1.36 billion), the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is 26.2x, while the forward P/E is 10.6x, implying the market expects a sharp earnings recovery. The large gap between trailing and forward P/E suggests that the market is pricing in a normalization of earnings after the Q4 2025 loss. Compared to the industry average (not provided, but typically lower for E&P), a trailing P/E of 26.2x appears elevated, but the forward P/E of 10.6x is more in line with peers. The P/S ratio of 2.9x is reasonable for the sector. Historically, the stock's trailing P/E has ranged from 4.4x (Q3 2022) to 13.7x (Q1 2021), and the current 26.2x is near the top of its historical range, reflecting the recent earnings dip. However, the forward P/E of 10.6x is closer to the historical median, suggesting that if earnings recover as expected, the valuation is not stretched. The PEG ratio is negative due to negative earnings growth, limiting its usefulness.

PE

26.2x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

High-End

5-Year PE Range -7x~14x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

8.1x

Enterprise Value Multiple