FLY Leasing
FLY
$19.89
+9.01%
Firefly Aerospace Inc. is a space and defense technology company that provides comprehensive mission solutions to national security, government, and commercial customers, developing launch vehicles and spacecraft systems that support launch, transit, and in-orbit operations, with the majority of revenue derived from its Spacecraft Solutions segment. As a relatively small player in the Aerospace & Defense industry with roughly 1,409 employees and a market capitalization near $3.4 billion, Firefly positions itself as an emerging challenger in the launch and lunar-lander market rather than an established prime contractor, competing against larger, better-capitalized rivals such as Rocket Lab and SpaceX. The current investor narrative is dominated by two opposing forces: optimism around NASA's multi-billion-dollar Moon Base program and Firefly's lunar mission successes, versus a severe sentiment shock from SpaceX's record-breaking IPO in June 2026, which triggered a broad capital rotation out of existing public space stocks. Compounding this, Firefly's May 2026 public offering diluted shareholders and the stock has been punished alongside peers, with the company still deeply unprofitable and burning cash, leaving investors to debate whether the selloff represents a compelling entry point or justified repricing of a speculative, pre-profit story.…
FLY
FLY Leasing
$19.89
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Investment Opinion: Should I buy FLY Today?
The synthesized recommendation is Hold. The core thesis is that Firefly's long-term potential in lunar and national security markets is offset by deep unprofitability, high cash burn, and a severe downtrend. The analyst consensus is buy with an average target of $38.18, implying 90.9% upside, but the market is pricing in significant risks that analysts may be underestimating.
Supporting evidence includes: 1) Revenue acceleration with Q2 2026 revenue of $117.68 million up from $80.88 million in Q1 2026; 2) Gross margin improvement to 20.29% from 12.69% in Q1 2026; 3) Strong balance sheet with current ratio of 4.51 and debt-to-equity of 0.26; 4) Analyst target upside of 90.9% and a buy consensus. However, the trailing PS of 21.26x is a premium to peers, and free cash flow is deeply negative at -$326.49 million TTM.
The biggest risks are continued cash burn leading to dilution, competitive pressures from SpaceX and Rocket Lab, and the stock's technical weakness with a 46.72% six-month decline. The rating would upgrade to Buy if revenue growth accelerates above 20% YoY and gross margins exceed 30%, or downgrade to Sell if cash burn exceeds $150 million per quarter or the stock breaks below $16.00. The stock appears overvalued on current fundamentals but may be undervalued if growth materializes; it is fairly valued relative to its growth prospects, but with high uncertainty.
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FLY 12-Month Price Forecast
Firefly presents a high-risk, high-reward scenario. The company is growing revenue but remains far from profitability, with substantial cash burn that will likely require further dilution. The analyst consensus is bullish with a $38.18 target, but the market is pricing in significant risks, as evidenced by the stock trading at $20.00. The technical picture is weak, with the stock near its 52-week low and underperforming the market. A neutral stance is warranted until there is evidence of sustained revenue acceleration and margin improvement. An upgrade to bullish would require revenue growth above 20% YoY and gross margins exceeding 30%, while a downgrade to bearish would occur if cash burn accelerates or the stock breaks below $16.00.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on FLY Leasing's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $38.00 and implied upside of +91.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$38.00
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+91.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$25 - $50
Analyst target range
Firefly is covered by 11 analysts, and the consensus recommendation is "buy" with a recommendation mean of 1.82 (where 1.0 is a Strong Buy and 5.0 is a Strong Sell), indicating a moderately bullish stance. The average target price is $38.18, which implies +90.9% upside from the current price of $20.00 — a striking disconnect that suggests either the stock is deeply undervalued or analysts have been slow to revise targets downward following the SpaceX IPO-driven selloff. The consensus leans bullish, but the magnitude of the implied upside is a red flag: when a stock trades 48% below its average analyst target, it often signals that targets are stale or that the market is pricing in risks analysts have not yet fully incorporated. The target range spans $25.00 to $50.00, a wide 100% spread that signals high uncertainty about Firefly's future. The high target of $50.00 implies roughly 150% upside and would require the company to execute on its NASA lunar contracts, scale revenue toward the $1.76 billion analyst estimate, and achieve meaningful margin expansion — essentially a best-case scenario where Firefly becomes a major space prime. The low target of $25.00 implies just 25% upside and likely prices in continued cash burn, dilution risk, competitive pressure from SpaceX and Rocket Lab, and the possibility that revenue growth stalls. Notably, even the low target is above the current price, meaning no analyst has a sell rating or a target below the current level — a uniformity that could reflect genuine conviction or, alternatively, a reluctance to capitulate on a recently IPO'd name. Institutional ratings show a mix of actions: KeyBanc upgraded to Overweight from Sector Weight on June 15, 2026, while Roth Capital, B. Riley, and Cantor Fitzgerald all maintained Buy/Overweight ratings on August 12, 2026, and Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs have stayed at Equal Weight/Neutral. The absence of recent downgrades despite the stock's collapse suggests analysts are holding the line on their long-term thesis, but the wide target spread and the fact that the stock trades below every published target indicate the market is far more skeptical than the sell-side consensus.
Bulls vs Bears: FLY Investment Factors
The bear case currently has stronger evidence due to the severe downtrend, deep unprofitability, and competitive pressures. However, the bull case rests on sequential revenue acceleration, a strong balance sheet, and a massive analyst target upside of 90.9%. The most critical tension is whether Firefly can convert its NASA lunar contracts into sustainable revenue growth and margin expansion before cash reserves deplete. If revenue continues to scale and gross margins improve, the stock could re-rate; otherwise, further dilution and price declines are likely.
Bullish
- Revenue accelerating sequentially: Q2 2026 revenue of $117.68 million rose from $80.88 million in Q1 2026 and $57.67 million in Q4 2025, marking three consecutive quarters of sequential growth. This trajectory, if sustained, could drive the company toward the analyst revenue estimate of $1.76 billion.
- Analyst target implies 90.9% upside: The consensus average target price is $38.18, representing 90.9% upside from the current $20.00. Even the lowest target of $25.00 implies 25% upside, and no analyst has a sell rating, with a recommendation mean of 1.82 (buy).
- Strong balance sheet with low leverage: The current ratio is 4.51 and debt-to-equity is only 0.26, providing a solid liquidity cushion. Cash stood at $459.82 million at the end of Q2 2026, up from $326.18 million in Q1 2026, funding operations without immediate solvency risk.
- Gross margin improvement: Gross margin expanded to 20.29% in Q2 2026 from 12.69% in Q1 2026, though it remains below the 21.97% in Q4 2025. This sequential improvement suggests better cost absorption as revenue scales.
Bearish
- Severe stock downtrend and underperformance: FLY is down 33.47% over one year and 46.72% over six months, with a max drawdown of -69.67%. It trades at just 8.6% of its 52-week range and has underperformed SPY by 61.31 percentage points over six months, indicating persistent weakness.
- Deeply unprofitable with high cash burn: Q2 2026 net income was -$92.32 million on revenue of $117.68 million, a net margin of -78.45%. Free cash flow was -$106.31 million for the quarter and -$326.49 million on a trailing twelve-month basis, requiring continuous external financing.
- Extreme valuation relative to fundamentals: The trailing PS ratio is 21.26x and EV/Sales is 10.03x, a premium to aerospace peers. With revenue growth of only 6.57% YoY and negative margins, the valuation relies heavily on future contract wins rather than current performance.
- Dilution risk from equity raises: The May 2026 public offering raised $197.06 million but diluted shareholders, increasing shares outstanding from 155.65 million in Q4 2025 to 161.78 million in Q2 2026. Continued cash burn may necessitate further dilutive financing.
FLY Technical Analysis
Firefly is in a sustained, severe downtrend, with the stock down 33.47% over the past year and 46.72% over six months, a decline that accelerated after the June 2026 SpaceX IPO-driven sector selloff. At the current price of $20.00, the stock sits at just 8.6% of its 52-week range (52-week low of $16.00, high of $62.17), meaning it is trading near the very bottom of its annual band — a positioning that typically signals either deep value or a falling knife, and given the absence of a confirmed base, caution is warranted. The maximum drawdown of -69.67% from peak underscores how violently the stock has been repriced, and the fact that it is only 25% above its absolute 52-week low suggests buyers have yet to step in decisively. Recent momentum remains negative and is diverging from the broader market: FLY is down 8.30% over the past month versus a +2.12% gain for SPY, producing a relative strength of -10.42%, while the 3-month change of -16.98% lags SPY's +3.13% by over 20 percentage points. This persistent underperformance against a rising market indicates the weakness is company- and sector-specific rather than macro-driven, and the 1-month decline (-8.30%) being shallower than the 3-month decline (-16.98%) hints at a possible deceleration in selling pressure, though no confirmed reversal has emerged. The stock's most recent close of $20.00 came on a -3.24% down day, showing momentum has not yet stabilized. Key technical support sits at the 52-week low of $16.00, roughly 20% below the current price; a breakdown below that level would likely trigger further capitulation and open the door to new all-time lows. Resistance is anchored at the 52-week high of $62.17, but more immediately the $25-$30 zone — where the stock traded in June and July 2026 — represents the first meaningful overhead supply. A breakout above $30 would be an early sign of trend repair, while a sustained move above the analyst low target of $25 would confirm renewed institutional interest. With a short ratio of 4.8 days and a beta not provided, volatility is clearly elevated given the -69.67% max drawdown, and position sizing should reflect the risk of a high-beta, small-cap space name in a sector undergoing sentiment-driven repricing.
Beta
—
—
Max Drawdown
-72.3%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$16-$62
Price range past year
Annual Return
-27.6%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | FLY Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -18.3% | -0.2% |
| 3m | +11.5% | +5.5% |
| 6m | -42.5% | +7.1% |
| 1y | -27.6% | +12.3% |
| ytd | -16.3% | +12.9% |
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FLY Fundamental Analysis
Firefly's revenue trajectory is improving but from a very low base: Q2 2026 revenue reached $117.68 million, up 6.57% year-over-year from Q2 2025's $15.55 million, though the sequential trend is more telling — revenue rose from $80.88 million in Q1 2026 and $57.67 million in Q4 2025, indicating a genuine multi-quarter acceleration. The revenue mix shows Spacecraft Solutions contributing $137.17 million versus Launch Revenue of $72.37 million, confirming the company's disclosure that Spacecraft Solutions is the majority revenue driver and the segment investors should watch most closely. However, the YoY growth rate of 6.57% is modest for a company commanding a $3.4 billion market cap, and with analyst estimated revenue averaging $1.76 billion (range $1.61-$1.89 billion), the market is clearly pricing in a dramatic step-up in scale that has yet to materialize in reported results. Profitability remains deeply negative: Q2 2026 net income was -$92.32 million on revenue of $117.68 million, a net margin of -78.45%, with gross margin of 20.29% and gross profit of just $23.88 million. While gross margin has improved from 12.69% in Q1 2026 and 21.97% in Q4 2025, the operating margin of -80.89% and EBITDA of -$90.56 million show that operating expenses — particularly R&D at $71.53 million and SG&A at $47.54 million — are consuming far more than the company generates. The net loss has narrowed sequentially from -$96.68 million in Q1 2026, but the company remains far from breakeven, and the -$0.57 quarterly EPS reflects the ongoing cash burn. The balance sheet offers some cushion: the current ratio is 4.51, debt-to-equity is a manageable 0.26, and cash at end of Q2 2026 stood at $459.82 million, up from $326.18 million in Q1 2026 thanks to a $197.06 million common stock issuance. However, free cash flow is deeply negative at -$106.31 million for Q2 2026 and -$326.49 million on a trailing twelve-month basis, with operating cash flow of -$81.57 million, meaning the company is funding operations through equity issuance rather than internal cash generation. ROE of -25.07% and ROA of -18.07% confirm that capital is being consumed, not compounded, and the reliance on external financing — evidenced by the May 2026 public offering — is a structural risk that dilutes existing shareholders with each raise.
Quarterly Revenue
$117683000.0B
2026-06
Revenue YoY Growth
+656.9%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
20.3%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$-326493000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is FLY Overvalued?
Because Firefly's trailing net income is negative (-$92.32 million in Q2 2026) and trailing EPS is -$0.09, the PE ratio is not meaningful; the trailing PE of -10.12 and forward PE of -11.12 both reflect losses, so the appropriate primary metric is the price-to-sales (PS) ratio. FLY trades at a trailing PS of 21.26x and an EV/Sales of 10.03x, while the forward-looking picture is complicated by the fact that even the forward PE of -11.12 implies analysts do not expect profitability in the near term despite an estimated EPS average of $1.01 — a contradiction that suggests the estimated EPS figure may reflect a different fiscal period or non-GAAP adjustments. The gap between the trailing PS of 21.26x and the EV/Sales of 10.03x is largely explained by the company's substantial cash balance ($459.82 million), which reduces enterprise value relative to market cap and implies the market is valuing the operating business at roughly half the headline market cap multiple. Compared to the broader Aerospace & Defense sector, where established primes typically trade at 1.5-3x sales and even high-growth space peers like Rocket Lab command roughly 8-15x sales, Firefly's 21.26x trailing PS represents a significant premium — though the EV/Sales of 10.03x is more in line with premium space-growth peers. This premium is difficult to justify on current fundamentals: revenue growth of 6.57% YoY is far below what a 21x sales multiple would normally require, gross margin of 20.29% is thin for a technology company, and the company is burning over $100 million in free cash flow per quarter. The premium appears to rest on the option value of Firefly's lunar and national security contracts rather than current financial performance. Historically, Firefly's valuation multiples have compressed dramatically: the PS ratio was 141.12x in Q3 2025, 60.37x in Q4 2025, 56.19x in Q1 2026, and 40.42x in Q2 2026, now sitting at 21.26x. This steady decline reflects both the stock's price collapse and the company's revenue growth, and while the current 21.26x is the lowest PS multiple in the company's short public history, it is important to note that the compression has occurred alongside a -69.67% drawdown — meaning the "cheaper" multiple is a function of a falling stock price, not improving fundamentals. The PB ratio of 2.86x is also near the low end of its historical range (versus 4.58x in Q3 2025 and 4.11x in Q1 2026), suggesting the market is applying a diminishing premium to book value as losses accumulate.
PE
-10.1x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
N/A
5-Year PE Range 17x~59x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
-10.0x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial and operational risks are substantial. Firefly reported a Q2 2026 net loss of -$92.32 million on revenue of $117.68 million, with a net margin of -78.45%. Free cash flow was -$106.31 million for the quarter and -$326.49 million TTM, funded by a $197.06 million equity raise in May 2026. With cash of $459.82 million, the company has limited runway if burn continues, and further dilution is likely. Additionally, revenue growth of 6.57% YoY is modest for a company with a $3.4 billion market cap, and gross margin of 20.29% remains thin.
Market and competitive risks are elevated. The stock trades at a trailing PS of 21.26x, a premium to aerospace peers, and the sector is undergoing a sentiment-driven repricing following SpaceX's IPO. Firefly faces intense competition from SpaceX and Rocket Lab, which have greater resources and established market positions. The stock's beta is not provided, but its -69.67% max drawdown and 46.72% six-month decline indicate high volatility. Relative strength versus SPY is -61.31% over six months, highlighting severe underperformance and potential for further capital rotation out of small-cap space names.
The worst-case scenario involves a breakdown below the 52-week low of $16.00, which is 20% below the current price of $20.00. If revenue growth stalls, cash burn accelerates, and NASA contracts face delays, the stock could test the analyst low target of $25.00 (though that is above current price) or fall further to new lows. From the current price, a drop to $16.00 would represent a 20% loss, and if the company requires another dilutive raise, the stock could decline further. The maximum drawdown of -69.67% from peak illustrates the potential severity of a bear case.
FAQ
The key risks include: 1) Financial risk: deep unprofitability with a net margin of -78.45% and free cash flow of -$326.49 million TTM, requiring further dilution. 2) Competitive risk: intense competition from SpaceX and Rocket Lab, which have greater resources and market share. 3) Macro/sector risk: the space sector is undergoing a sentiment-driven selloff following SpaceX's IPO, and FLY has underperformed SPY by 61.31% over six months. 4) Company-specific risk: reliance on NASA contracts and lunar mission success, with delays or failures potentially damaging the stock. The most severe risk is dilution from a capital raise, which could depress the stock price further.
The 12-month forecast has three scenarios: bull case (25% probability) with a target range of $38-$50, base case (55% probability) with $25-$38, and bear case (20% probability) with $16-$25. The base case is most likely, assuming revenue grows 15-20% YoY but remains unprofitable, with the stock trading between the analyst average target and the 52-week low. The key assumption is that Firefly continues to win contracts but requires additional financing. The bull case requires successful lunar missions and margin expansion, while the bear case involves revenue stagnation and a dilutive raise.
FLY appears overvalued on current fundamentals, with a trailing PS of 21.26x and EV/Sales of 10.03x, a premium to aerospace peers. The company is unprofitable with a net margin of -78.45%, and revenue growth of 6.57% YoY is modest. However, the PS ratio has compressed from 141.12x in Q3 2025 to 21.26x now, and the EV/Sales of 10.03x is in line with high-growth space peers. The market is pricing in significant future growth, as evidenced by the analyst revenue estimate of $1.76 billion. If that growth materializes, the stock could be undervalued; otherwise, it is overvalued.
FLY is a high-risk, speculative buy for investors who can tolerate volatility and have a long-term horizon. The analyst consensus is buy with an average target of $38.18, implying 90.9% upside, but the stock trades at $20.00, reflecting market skepticism. The biggest downside risk is a break below the 52-week low of $16.00, which would represent a 20% loss. For risk-averse investors, it is not a good buy due to deep unprofitability and cash burn. For those with a high risk appetite, it could be a good buy if revenue growth accelerates and margins improve.
FLY is more suitable for long-term investment by risk-tolerant investors, given its early growth stage, high volatility (max drawdown -69.67%), and no meaningful dividend (yield 0.15%). The company is unprofitable and has limited earnings visibility, making short-term trading highly speculative. A minimum holding period of 3-5 years is suggested to allow for potential contract wins and margin improvement. Short-term traders may capitalize on volatility, but the stock's severe downtrend and negative momentum make it risky. Long-term investors should monitor cash burn and dilution closely.