Guidewire Software
GWRE
$109.63
+6.76%
Guidewire Software, Inc. provides cloud-based software solutions specifically for the property and casualty (P&C) insurance industry, with its flagship InsuranceSuite platform serving as a core system of record for claims, policy, and billing management. The company is a recognized market leader in this specialized vertical, having established itself as a critical technology partner for insurers undergoing digital transformation. The current investor narrative is heavily focused on the company's transition to a cloud-centric subscription model, validated by recent high-profile customer wins like the long-term deal with Sompo, but this is juxtaposed against significant stock price volatility as the market weighs the growth potential of this shift against near-term financial performance and macroeconomic pressures on the insurance sector.…
GWRE
Guidewire Software
$109.63
Related headlines
GWRE 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Guidewire Software's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $142.52 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$142.52
13 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
13
covering this stock
Price Range
$88 - $143
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage for GWRE appears limited, with data indicating only 13 analysts providing estimates, and no consensus price target or recommendation breakdown is available in the provided dataset. The lack of a clear consensus target and the wide range in EPS estimates (low of $4.27 to high of $6.77) signals high uncertainty among the covering analysts regarding the company's near-term earnings trajectory. The institutional ratings data shows a pattern of reiterated Buy or Outperform ratings from firms like DA Davidson, BTIG, and RBC Capital in early 2026, with no recent downgrades, suggesting maintained bullish sentiment among those who cover it; however, the insufficient breadth of coverage typical for a mid-cap company like Guidewire can lead to higher volatility and less efficient price discovery as the stock is more susceptible to shifts in sentiment from a smaller group of investors.
GWRE Technical Analysis
The prevailing price trend for GWRE is a pronounced and sustained downtrend, with the stock down 56.29% over the past year and currently trading near the very bottom of its 52-week range, just above the $106.41 low. This positioning near multi-year lows suggests the stock is deeply oversold, presenting a potential value opportunity but also indicating severe negative momentum and a lack of buyer conviction that could signal further downside risk. Recent momentum remains sharply negative, with the stock declining 22.96% over the past month and 30.69% over the past three months, which aligns with and accelerates the longer-term downtrend; this persistent selling pressure, coupled with a relative strength reading of -81.28% versus the S&P 500 over the past year, highlights extreme underperformance and a lack of any meaningful bullish divergence. Key technical levels are clearly defined, with immediate support at the 52-week low of $106.41 and resistance far above near the 52-week high of $272.60; a decisive breakdown below support could trigger another leg down, while a sustained move above it might signal a tentative stabilization. The stock's beta of 0.915 indicates its volatility is slightly below the broader market, which is notable given its severe price decline, suggesting the sell-off has been driven more by company-specific factors than general market risk.
Beta
0.92
0.92x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-60.8%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$102-$273
Price range past year
Annual Return
-54.0%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | GWRE Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -21.8% | -1.6% |
| 3m | -26.6% | +11.7% |
| 6m | -46.8% | +6.3% |
| 1y | -54.0% | +22.2% |
| ytd | -41.6% | +7.6% |
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GWRE Fundamental Analysis
Revenue growth has shown significant acceleration recently, with Q2 FY2026 revenue of $359.1 million representing a robust 24.05% year-over-year increase, a marked improvement from the 8.4% YoY growth seen in the prior quarter (Q1 FY2026). The growth is being driven by the strategic shift to cloud subscriptions, as evidenced by the revenue segment data where Subscription revenue of $222.7 million is the largest component, though the multi-quarter trend from the income statements shows revenue can be volatile quarter-to-quarter. The company has returned to profitability on a GAAP basis, reporting net income of $60.1 million in the latest quarter with a net margin of 16.7%, a dramatic improvement from a net loss of $37.3 million in the year-ago quarter; gross margin remains healthy at 64.47%, though operating margin of 10.8% indicates significant ongoing investments in sales and R&D. The balance sheet and cash flow position is strong, with a solid current ratio of 2.77, a manageable debt-to-equity ratio of 0.49, and the company generated substantial free cash flow of $108.8 million in the last quarter alone; the trailing twelve-month free cash flow of $309.6 million provides ample internal funding for growth, and the return on equity of 4.79%, while modest, is positive and improving from historical levels.
Quarterly Revenue
$359095000.0B
2026-01
Revenue YoY Growth
+0.24%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.64%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$309559000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is GWRE Overvalued?
Given the company's positive net income, the primary valuation metric selected is the Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio. The trailing P/E is an extremely high 271.7x, reflecting the market's capitalization of recently restored earnings, while the forward P/E is a more reasonable 26.2x, indicating the market expects significant earnings growth to normalize this multiple. Compared to the software application industry, a forward P/E of 26.2x likely represents a premium, though exact industry averages are not provided in the data; this premium would need to be justified by Guidewire's leading market position, high gross margins of 62.5%, and its ongoing cloud transition which promises more predictable recurring revenue. Historically, the stock's own valuation has compressed dramatically from recent highs; for instance, its P/E ratio as of the last quarterly report (Q2 FY2026) was 49.7x, and its price-to-sales ratio has fallen from 33.2 then to 15.8 currently, indicating the stock is trading at a significant discount to its own recent history, which may reflect a market pricing in lowered growth expectations or increased risk.
PE
272.6x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range -2323x~424x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
219.8x
Enterprise Value Multiple

