LMT

Lockheed Martin

$582.74

+1.50%
Jul 31, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Lockheed Martin is the world's largest defense contractor, specializing in advanced military aircraft, missiles, helicopters, satellites, and missile defense systems. Its dominant position is anchored by the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program, which accounts for a significant portion of its Aeronautics segment revenue. The company is currently benefiting from heightened geopolitical tensions and record global defense budgets, which are driving strong demand and a robust backlog. Investors are focused on the company's ability to convert this demand into margin expansion and cash flow growth, while also monitoring potential supply chain constraints and the impact of inflation on fixed-price contracts.

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BobbyInvestment Opinion: Should I buy LMT Today?

Based on the analysis, Lockheed Martin is rated a 'Hold'. The consensus analyst rating is 'Hold' with an average price target of $628.21, implying a modest upside of 7.8% from the current price. The thesis is that while the company has a strong backlog and improving profitability, the flat revenue growth and high leverage limit the stock's upside potential in the near term.

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LMT 12-Month Price Forecast

The AI assessment leans bullish on Lockheed Martin, driven by the attractive forward valuation and the recent earnings inflection. The 444% profit growth in Q2 2026 suggests that the company is overcoming previous margin pressures, and the record backlog ensures future revenue. However, the flat revenue growth and high leverage temper enthusiasm, leading to a medium confidence level. The stance would upgrade to high confidence if revenue growth accelerates above 5% in the next two quarters, while a downgrade would occur if margins deteriorate or backlog conversion slows.

Historical Price
Current Price $582.74
Average Target $615.00
High Target $756.00
Low Target $417.00

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Lockheed Martin's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $628.21 and implied upside of +7.8% versus the current price.

Average Target

$628.21

0 analysts

Implied Upside

+7.8%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

covering this stock

Price Range

$503 - $756

Analyst target range

Lockheed Martin is covered by 19 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Hold' and a mean rating of 2.52 (where 1 is Strong Buy and 5 is Sell). The average price target is $628.21, implying an upside of approximately 7.8% from the current price of $582.74. The distribution of ratings is not provided, but the 'Hold' consensus suggests a neutral stance, with analysts seeing limited upside at current levels. The low target of $503.00 implies a downside of 13.7%, while the high target of $756.00 implies an upside of 29.7%, indicating a wide range of expectations. This spread reflects uncertainty about the pace of margin recovery and the impact of geopolitical events on defense spending. Recent ratings actions show a mix of holds and a notable upgrade from Citigroup from Neutral to Buy in July 2026, suggesting some positive momentum in sentiment. The wide target range highlights the divergent views on Lockheed's growth trajectory, with bulls focusing on record backlogs and margin expansion, while bears worry about supply chain issues and potential budget cuts.

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Bulls vs Bears: LMT Investment Factors

Lockheed Martin presents a mixed investment case. On the bullish side, the company benefits from record defense spending, a massive backlog, and a recent earnings beat with 444% profit growth, which could drive margin expansion. The forward PE of 17.81x is at a discount to the industry average, suggesting potential upside. However, bearish factors include flat revenue growth, high leverage, and a 'Hold' consensus from analysts, indicating limited near-term upside. The most important tension is whether the company can convert its record backlog into actual revenue and margin growth, as the market is currently pricing in modest expectations. If Lockheed can accelerate revenue growth and expand margins, the stock could re-rate higher; otherwise, it may remain range-bound. Currently, the evidence slightly favors the bull case due to the strong backlog and recent profit surge, but the flat revenue trend warrants caution.

Bullish

  • Record Backlog and 3.2x Book-to-Bill: Lockheed Martin's Q2 2026 earnings beat highlighted a 3.2x book-to-bill ratio, indicating that new orders are far outpacing revenue recognition. This strong demand, driven by record global defense budgets, provides multi-year revenue visibility and supports future growth.
  • Q2 Profit Growth of 444%: The company reported a 444% year-over-year increase in Q2 2026 profit, signaling a significant inflection point in margin recovery. This dramatic improvement suggests that operational efficiencies and cost controls are taking effect, potentially leading to sustained earnings growth.
  • Forward PE Discount to Industry: With a forward PE of 17.81x versus the industry average of 22.43x, Lockheed trades at a 20% discount to its peers on expected earnings. This valuation gap implies that the market has not fully priced in the anticipated earnings growth, offering upside potential.
  • Strong Relative Strength vs. S&P 500: Over the past year, Lockheed's stock has gained 38.42% compared to the S&P 500's 18.19%, and its 1-month relative strength is 11.50%. This outperformance reflects investor confidence in the defense sector and Lockheed's dominant market position.

Bearish

  • Flat Revenue Growth of 0.32%: Lockheed's most recent quarter (Q1 2026) reported revenue of $18.02 billion, a mere 0.32% year-over-year increase. This stagnation suggests that despite a strong backlog, the company is struggling to convert orders into actual revenue growth, potentially due to supply chain constraints or program delays.
  • High Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 3.23: Lockheed's debt-to-equity ratio stands at 3.23, indicating significant leverage. This high debt load increases financial risk, especially in a rising interest rate environment, and could limit the company's flexibility for future investments or shareholder returns.
  • Analyst Consensus is 'Hold': With a mean rating of 2.52 (where 1 is Strong Buy and 5 is Sell) and an average price target of $628.21, analysts see limited upside of only 7.8% from the current price. The 'Hold' consensus suggests that the stock is fairly valued at current levels, with no clear catalyst for significant appreciation.
  • Low Gross Margin of 10.15%: Lockheed's gross margin is only 10.15%, reflecting the high costs associated with fixed-price defense contracts and supply chain disruptions. This thin margin leaves little room for error and makes the company vulnerable to cost overruns or inflation pressures.

LMT Technical Analysis

Lockheed Martin's stock is in a clear long-term uptrend, with a 1-year price change of +38.42% and a 52-week range of $417.00 to $692.00. The current price of $582.74 sits at approximately 84% of the 52-week range, indicating the stock is trading closer to its highs than its lows, reflecting strong momentum and investor confidence. This positioning suggests the market is rewarding the company's growth prospects, though it also raises the risk of short-term overextension.

Beta

0.11

0.11x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-27.4%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$419-$692

Price range past year

Annual Return

+38.4%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodLMT ReturnS&P 500
1m+11.7%+0.3%
3m+13.6%+4.0%
6m-8.1%+8.3%
1y+38.4%+20.2%
ytd+17.2%+9.6%

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LMT Fundamental Analysis

Lockheed Martin's revenue has been relatively flat, with the most recent quarter (Q1 2026) reporting $18.02 billion, a mere 0.32% year-over-year increase. However, this stability is notable given the lumpy nature of defense contracts, and the company's backlog remains strong, providing visibility into future revenue. The multi-quarter trend shows revenue fluctuating between $17.1 billion and $20.3 billion, with no clear growth trajectory, but the recent Q2 2026 earnings beat (as per news) suggests a potential inflection point. The Aeronautics segment, at $6.95 billion, remains the largest revenue driver, followed by Rotary and Mission Systems at $3.99 billion, Missiles and Fire Control at $3.65 billion, and Space at $3.43 billion, indicating a diversified portfolio across defense and space.

Quarterly Revenue

$18.0B

2026-03

Revenue YoY Growth

+0.3%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

11.5%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$5.7B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Aeronautics
Missiles And Fire Control
Rotary and Mission Systems
Space

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Valuation Analysis: Is LMT Overvalued?

Given Lockheed Martin's positive net income, the PE ratio is the most appropriate valuation metric. The trailing PE is 22.43x, while the forward PE is 17.81x, implying the market expects earnings growth of approximately 26% over the next year. This gap suggests optimism about margin expansion and operational leverage. Compared to the industry average PE of 22.43x (as per the data), Lockheed's trailing PE is in line, but its forward PE is at a discount, indicating the stock is undervalued relative to its growth prospects. Historically, Lockheed's PE has ranged from 11.85x to 90.36x over the past five years, with the current trailing PE near the lower end of that range, suggesting the stock is trading at a reasonable valuation relative to its own history.

PE

22.4x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

High-End

5-Year PE Range 12x~23x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

16.7x

Enterprise Value Multiple

Investment Risk Disclosure

Financially, Lockheed Martin carries a high debt-to-equity ratio of 3.23, which amplifies interest expense and financial risk, especially if interest rates remain elevated. The company's gross margin is thin at 10.15%, leaving little buffer for cost overruns on fixed-price contracts, which have historically caused earnings volatility. Additionally, revenue growth has been stagnant at 0.32% year-over-year, indicating that the company is not yet converting its backlog into top-line growth, which could pressure cash flow and dividend sustainability if the trend persists.