LMT

Lockheed Martin

$513.43

-0.59%
Jun 2, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Lockheed Martin Corporation is the world's largest defense contractor, operating in the Aerospace & Defense industry with core businesses spanning high-end fighter aircraft, missiles, missile defense systems, rotary-wing helicopters, and space systems. The company is a dominant market leader, particularly in Western fighter aircraft due to its flagship F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program, which drives a significant portion of its revenue. The current investor narrative is heavily influenced by geopolitical tensions driving sustained defense spending, alongside significant execution risks and cost overruns associated with major programs like the Golden Dome missile defense system, as highlighted in recent news, creating a complex backdrop of robust demand tempered by program-specific profitability concerns.

People also watch

GE Aerospace

GE Aerospace

GE

Analysis
RTX

RTX

RTX

Analysis
Boeing

Boeing

BA

Analysis
Howmet Aerospace

Howmet Aerospace

HWM

Analysis
General Dynamics

General Dynamics

GD

Analysis

LMT 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $513.43
Average Target $513.43
High Target $590.4445
Low Target $436.41549999999995

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Lockheed Martin's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $667.46 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$667.46

7 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

7

covering this stock

Price Range

$411 - $667

Analyst target range

Buy
2 (29%)
Hold
3 (43%)
Sell
2 (29%)

Analyst coverage for Lockheed Martin appears limited, with only 7 analysts providing estimates, indicating a potential lack of broad institutional research coverage which can lead to higher volatility. The consensus sentiment, inferred from recent institutional ratings, is neutral to cautious, with firms like Citigroup, UBS, Jefferies, and TD Cowen maintaining 'Neutral', 'Hold', or 'Sector Perform' ratings, while Goldman Sachs maintains a 'Sell'. Specific consensus price target and implied upside data are not available in the provided dataset, preventing a calculation of the market's explicit price expectation. The wide dispersion in historical valuation multiples and the recent negative news flow regarding program costs suggest a high degree of uncertainty and a lack of strong conviction among analysts, which is typical for a stock facing both significant tailwinds (geopolitical demand) and headwinds (execution risk).

Drowning in data?

Find the real signal!

Bulls vs Bears: LMT Investment Factors

The investment debate for Lockheed Martin is a classic tension between robust, structurally growing demand and significant company-specific execution risks. The bull case is anchored in strong free cash flow, a discounted forward P/E, and a defensive revenue base bolstered by geopolitical tensions. The bear case is equally compelling, focusing on severe quarterly earnings volatility, high leverage, and concrete news of program cost overruns. Currently, the bearish evidence appears stronger in the near term, given the stock's sharp technical breakdown and the materialization of profitability risks. The single most important tension is whether the company can stabilize its margins and manage program costs (like Golden Dome) to capitalize on elevated defense spending, or if execution missteps will continue to erode the earnings power that justifies its valuation.

Bullish

  • Strong Free Cash Flow Generation: The company generates substantial cash, with trailing twelve-month free cash flow of $6.91 billion. This provides significant financial flexibility for dividends, share buybacks, and debt reduction, supporting shareholder returns.
  • Defensive Demand Amid Geopolitical Tensions: Recent news highlights sustained demand, including a $4 billion Patriot missile sale to Qatar and Israel's plan to buy new fighter squadrons. This reinforces the robust, multi-decade revenue stream from the flagship F-35 program and other defense systems.
  • Attractive Forward Valuation: The forward P/E ratio of 16.53x is notably lower than the trailing P/E of 22.26x, indicating the market expects earnings growth. This forward multiple represents a discount to the stock's own historical average, suggesting potential value.
  • High Return on Equity: The ROE of 74.65% is exceptionally high, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital. While amplified by leverage, it demonstrates strong operational profitability on the equity base.

Bearish

  • Severe Profitability Volatility & Low Margins: Net income swung from $1.34 billion in Q4 2025 to just $342 million in Q2 2025, and the Q4 gross margin was a low 11.42%. This highlights significant execution risk and cost pressure from fixed-price contracts, as evidenced by recent news of the Golden Dome program's cost overruns.
  • High Financial Leverage: The debt-to-equity ratio of 3.23 is elevated, increasing financial risk, especially in a higher interest rate environment. This leverage magnifies earnings volatility and could constrain financial flexibility if profitability weakens.
  • Significant Technical Downtrend & Underperformance: The stock is down 19.39% over three months and shows a -29.67 relative strength versus the market. Trading at 76.7% of its 52-week range ($410.11 to $692.00), it remains in a pronounced correction from its highs.
  • Analyst Sentiment Neutral to Cautious: Coverage is limited to 7 analysts, with consensus sentiment neutral (e.g., Citigroup, UBS 'Hold') and one 'Sell' (Goldman Sachs). The lack of strong bullish conviction and explicit price targets reflects uncertainty around program execution.

LMT Technical Analysis

The stock is in a pronounced downtrend from its recent highs, having declined 19.39% over the past three months, which starkly contrasts with its positive 11.98% gain over the past year. Currently trading at $530.45, the price sits at approximately 76.7% of its 52-week range ($410.11 to $692.00), indicating it has retreated significantly from its highs but remains well above its lows, suggesting a correction within a longer-term uptrend rather than a complete breakdown. Recent momentum shows a modest 4.05% gain over the past month, which may signal a tentative stabilization or short-term bounce, but this is against the backdrop of severe underperformance relative to the broader market, evidenced by a -29.67 relative strength reading over three months. Key technical support is the 52-week low of $410.11, while immediate resistance is the recent high near $692.00; a decisive break below the $500 psychological level could accelerate selling toward the 52-week low, whereas reclaiming the $600 level would be necessary to suggest the downtrend is abating. The stock's beta of 0.1 indicates it has exhibited dramatically lower volatility than the market (SPY) recently, which is atypical for a defense name and may reflect its heavy institutional ownership and defensive characteristics during the recent sell-off.

Beta

0.10

0.10x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-25.1%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$410-$692

Price range past year

Annual Return

+7.2%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodLMT ReturnS&P 500
1m+0.1%+5.4%
3m-22.7%+10.9%
6m+14.5%+11.0%
1y+7.2%+28.1%
ytd+3.3%+11.4%

Bobby - Your AI Investment Partner

Get real-time data, AI-driven personalized investment analysis to make smarter investment decisions

LMT Fundamental Analysis

Revenue growth has been solid but shows some quarterly volatility; the most recent Q4 2025 revenue was $20.33 billion, representing a 9.17% year-over-year increase, though this follows a weaker Q2 2025 where revenue was $18.16 billion. Segment data reveals the Aeronautics division is the primary growth driver with $15.94 billion in revenue, significantly outpacing other segments like Missiles and Fire Control ($7.45B), Rotary and Mission Systems ($8.61B), and Space ($6.47B). The company is profitable, with Q4 2025 net income of $1.34 billion, translating to a net margin of 6.61%, but profitability has been inconsistent, as seen in the sharp drop to a $342 million net income in Q2 2025. Gross margin in Q4 2025 was 11.42%, which is low for a technology-focused defense contractor and indicates potential pressure from fixed-price contracts or cost overruns. The balance sheet carries significant financial leverage, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 3.23, which elevates financial risk, though this is partially offset by strong cash generation, including trailing twelve-month free cash flow of $6.91 billion. The current ratio of 1.09 indicates adequate short-term liquidity, while a Return on Equity of 74.65% is exceptionally high, largely amplified by the substantial use of debt.

Quarterly Revenue

$20.3B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+0.09%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.11%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$6.9B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Aeronautics
Missiles And Fire Control
Rotary and Mission Systems
Space

Open an Account, get $2 TSLA now!

Valuation Analysis: Is LMT Overvalued?

Given the company's consistent profitability, the primary valuation metric selected is the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio. The trailing PE ratio is 22.26x, while the forward PE is notably lower at 16.53x, indicating the market expects meaningful earnings growth in the coming year. Compared to sector averages, Lockheed's trailing PE of 22.26x trades at a premium; for context, its Price-to-Sales ratio of 1.49x and EV-to-Sales of 1.9x are more moderate multiples that reflect its lower net margins. The premium on earnings is likely justified by its market-leading position, the visibility of its F-35 program, and the defensive nature of its revenue streams, though it is tempered by concerns over program execution and leverage. Historically, the stock's own trailing PE has fluctuated significantly, as seen in the historical ratios data ranging from a high of 90.16x in Q2 2025 to a low of 11.85x in Q4 2021; the current 22.26x is near the middle of this wide range, suggesting the market is pricing in a balanced view of growth prospects against the recent operational challenges and geopolitical risks.

PE

22.3x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Low-End

5-Year PE Range 12x~90x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

16.7x

Enterprise Value Multiple

Investment Risk Disclosure

Financial & Operational Risks are pronounced, centered on profitability volatility and high leverage. The net margin of 6.61% in Q4 2025 is low for a technology contractor, and it collapsed to just 1.88% in Q2 2025, demonstrating extreme sensitivity to contract performance and cost overruns. The debt-to-equity ratio of 3.23 is high, making the company vulnerable to rising interest rates and earnings downturns. Furthermore, revenue concentration in the Aeronautics segment (driven by the F-35) creates dependency on a single program, though this is partially mitigated by its long-term, multi-government nature.

Market & Competitive Risks include valuation compression and emerging competitive threats. While the forward P/E of 16.53x appears reasonable, it trades at a premium to some sector averages, and the stock's own historical P/E has ranged from 11.85x to 90.16x, indicating potential for multiple contraction if growth disappoints. The stock's beta of 0.1 shows it has recently decoupled from market volatility, but this defensive characteristic could reverse if defense budgets face political scrutiny. Recent news also highlights competitive disruption from new entrants like Rocket Lab targeting missile defense, and a mandated, costly supply chain reshoring away from Chinese rare earths by 2027.

Worst-Case Scenario involves a perfect storm of program execution failures and a macro shift. A major cost overrun on the Golden Dome program leads to contract renegotiations and margin compression, while simultaneously, geopolitical tensions ease, leading to deferred defense spending. This triggers analyst downgrades and multiple compression toward the lower end of its historical P/E range. The stock could realistically revisit its 52-week low of $410.11, representing a downside of approximately -23% from the current price of $530.45. A breach of this level could trigger further selling, with the maximum drawdown of -25.15% serving as a recent guide for potential loss severity.