Lattice Semiconductor
LSCC
$137.17
+0.99%
Lattice Semiconductor Corp is a developer of semiconductor technology, primarily field-programmable gate arrays (FPGAs), distributed through products, solutions, and licenses to consumer, communications, and industrial markets. As a niche leader in low-power, small-form-factor FPGAs, the company differentiates itself with energy-efficient programmable logic solutions. The current investor narrative centers on a strong growth acceleration driven by AI edge computing and industrial automation, with recent quarterly revenue surging 42% year-over-year, while the stock has rallied over 140% in the past year amid expanding margins and a robust product cycle.…
LSCC
Lattice Semiconductor
$137.17
Investment Opinion: Should I buy LSCC Today?
Rating: Buy. Lattice Semiconductor is a high-growth semiconductor company with accelerating revenue, expanding margins, and strong analyst support. The consensus is Strong Buy with an average target of $148.33, implying 18.4% upside. The core thesis is that the company's focus on low-power FPGAs for edge AI and industrial automation will drive sustained growth, justifying its premium valuation.
Supporting Evidence: Revenue grew 42.2% YoY to $170.9 million in Q1 2026, accelerating from prior quarters. Net margin improved to 12.8% from negative territory a year ago. Gross margin expanded to 68.8% from 62.4% in Q4 2025. Free cash flow was $39.7 million in Q1 2026, up 70% YoY. The forward P/E of 53.9x, while high, is supported by analyst EPS estimates of $3.24 for the next fiscal year, implying a PEG ratio that, while negative due to GAAP, suggests growth is priced in. The P/S ratio of 20.6x is elevated but reflects the company's superior growth versus the industry average of 8x.
Risks & Conditions: The biggest risks are a deceleration in revenue growth below 30% or margin compression that would make the forward P/E unsustainable. If the company fails to meet analyst EPS estimates of $3.24, the stock could decline significantly. This Buy rating would be downgraded to Hold if revenue growth falls below 20% or if the forward P/E exceeds 60x without corresponding growth acceleration. Conversely, it would be upgraded to Strong Buy if the stock pulls back to a forward P/E below 40x while growth remains above 30%. Overall, LSCC is overvalued relative to its history and peers on a trailing basis, but the forward valuation is justified by the growth trajectory, making it a Buy for growth-oriented investors.
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LSCC 12-Month Price Forecast
Lattice Semiconductor is a high-growth semiconductor company with strong fundamental momentum. Revenue growth of 42% YoY and expanding margins support a premium valuation, but the forward P/E of 53.9x leaves little room for error. The AI assessment is bullish with medium confidence, as the company's niche in low-power FPGAs positions it well for secular trends in edge AI and industrial automation. However, the high beta and premium valuation make it vulnerable to macro shocks. The stance would be upgraded to high confidence if the company delivers another quarter of 40%+ revenue growth and raises guidance. Conversely, it would be downgraded to neutral if growth decelerates below 30% or margins contract.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Lattice Semiconductor's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $148.33 and implied upside of +8.1% versus the current price.
Average Target
$148.33
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+8.1%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$105 - $175
Analyst target range
LSCC is covered by 12 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Strong Buy' (mean score 1.5 out of 5). The average target price is $148.33, implying 18.4% upside from the current price of $125.23. The distribution shows no sell ratings, with recent actions from TD Cowen, Deutsche Bank, Stifel, Baird, Needham, Keybanc, Jefferies, Rosenblatt, and RBC Capital all maintaining Buy or Outperform ratings. The target range spans from $105.00 (low) to $175.00 (high), a spread of $70 or 67% of the average target, indicating moderate uncertainty. The high target of $175 assumes continued growth acceleration and multiple expansion, while the low target of $105 factors in potential margin compression or a cyclical downturn. Recent ratings have been uniformly positive, with no downgrades in the past three months, reinforcing bullish sentiment. The wide spread suggests that while the consensus is bullish, there is divergence on the magnitude of upside, reflecting the stock's high growth but also its premium valuation.
Bulls vs Bears: LSCC Investment Factors
Lattice Semiconductor presents a compelling growth story with accelerating revenue, expanding margins, and strong analyst support. The bull case is anchored by 42% YoY revenue growth, a return to profitability with a 12.8% net margin, and a robust balance sheet. However, the stock trades at a significant premium to peers, with a forward P/E of 53.9x versus the industry average of 25x, and has pulled back 20% from its high. The key tension is whether the company can sustain its growth trajectory to justify its valuation. If revenue growth remains above 30% and margins continue to expand, the stock could re-rate higher. Conversely, any deceleration or margin compression could lead to a sharp correction. Currently, the bull case has stronger evidence given the fundamental momentum, but the premium valuation demands continued execution.
Bullish
- Revenue accelerating 42% YoY: Q1 2026 revenue surged 42.2% year-over-year to $170.9 million, up from $120.2 million in Q1 2025. This marks a significant acceleration from the prior quarter's $145.8 million and from the 3% growth seen in Q2 2025, indicating strong demand momentum.
- Profitability turnaround with 12.8% net margin: Net income swung from a loss of $7.6 million in Q4 2025 to a profit of $21.8 million in Q1 2026, yielding a net margin of 12.8%. Gross margin expanded to 68.8% from 62.4% in Q4 2025, reflecting improved product mix and operating leverage.
- Strong balance sheet with low debt: Debt-to-equity ratio is only 0.11 and current ratio is 3.09, indicating ample liquidity. Free cash flow was $39.7 million in Q1 2026, up from $23.3 million a year earlier, and trailing twelve-month free cash flow reached $161.2 million.
- Analyst consensus Strong Buy with 18% upside: 12 analysts rate LSCC a Strong Buy (mean 1.5/5) with an average target of $148.33, implying 18.4% upside from the current price of $125.23. No sell ratings exist, and recent actions from major firms are all positive.
Bearish
- Extreme trailing P/E of 3,495x: The trailing P/E is an astronomical 3,495.6x, reflecting the recent swing to profitability. While forward P/E of 53.9x is more reasonable, it still represents a 116% premium to the semiconductor industry average of ~25x, leaving little room for error.
- Forward P/E at 53.9x vs 5-year average of 40x: The forward P/E of 53.9x is above the 5-year average of around 40x, indicating the market is pricing in optimistic growth expectations. Any disappointment in earnings could lead to multiple compression.
- Stock down 20% from 52-week high: At $125.23, LSCC is 20% below its 52-week high of $157.01, suggesting a consolidation phase after a 141% rally. Short-term momentum is negative, with a 1-month decline of 10.5% versus the S&P 500's gain of 0.3%.
- High beta of 1.78 amplifies downside risk: With a beta of 1.78, LSCC is 78% more volatile than the market. In a broad market selloff, the stock could decline significantly more than the index, as evidenced by its 19.8% max drawdown over the past year.
LSCC Technical Analysis
LSCC is in a sustained uptrend, with the stock up 141.3% over the past year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 18.4% gain. The current price of $125.23 sits at 72% of its 52-week range ($46.43–$157.01), indicating the stock is in the upper half of its range but off the highs, suggesting a consolidation phase after a strong rally. This positioning near the 52-week high reflects positive momentum but also potential overextension, as the stock has pulled back 20% from its peak. Short-term momentum has decelerated sharply, with a 1-month decline of 10.5% contrasting with a 3-month gain of 7.0% and a 1-year gain of 141.3%. This divergence between the short-term pullback and the longer-term uptrend could signal a temporary correction or profit-taking within a broader bull market, rather than a trend reversal. The relative strength versus the S&P 500 over 1 month is -10.8%, confirming recent underperformance. Key support lies at the 52-week low of $46.43, while resistance is at the 52-week high of $157.01. A breakout above $157 would signal a resumption of the uptrend, while a breakdown below recent lows near $124 could test deeper support. With a beta of 1.78, LSCC is 78% more volatile than the market, meaning larger swings in both directions, which is critical for risk management.
Beta
1.78
1.78x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-19.8%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$46-$157
Price range past year
Annual Return
+161.3%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | LSCC Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -11.7% | +0.4% |
| 3m | +16.2% | +5.5% |
| 6m | +62.7% | +8.4% |
| 1y | +161.3% | +18.9% |
| ytd | +74.4% | +9.6% |
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LSCC Fundamental Analysis
Revenue is accelerating strongly, with Q1 2026 revenue of $170.9 million growing 42.2% year-over-year, up from $120.2 million in Q1 2025. This marks a significant acceleration from the prior quarter's $145.8 million (Q4 2025) and from the 3% growth seen in Q2 2025. The growth is driven by broad-based demand across industrial and communications end markets, with license and service revenue contributing $4.5 million. The trajectory suggests the company is benefiting from a cyclical upswing in semiconductor demand and its strategic focus on edge AI. Profitability has improved markedly, with net income swinging from a loss of $7.6 million in Q4 2025 to a profit of $21.8 million in Q1 2026, yielding a net margin of 12.8%. Gross margin expanded to 68.8% in Q1 2026 from 62.4% in Q4 2025, reflecting better product mix and operating leverage. Operating margin also turned positive at 15.6%, a sharp recovery from -10.4% in Q4 2024. The company is now solidly profitable after a period of narrow or negative margins. The balance sheet is strong, with a debt-to-equity ratio of only 0.11 and a current ratio of 3.09, indicating ample liquidity. Free cash flow was $39.7 million in Q1 2026, up from $23.3 million a year earlier, and trailing twelve-month free cash flow reached $161.2 million. The company generates sufficient cash to fund operations and growth internally, with no reliance on external financing. Return on equity is low at 0.4% due to high equity base, but improving profitability should lift ROE over time.
Quarterly Revenue
$170897000.0B
2026-04
Revenue YoY Growth
+42.2%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
68.8%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$161239000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is LSCC Overvalued?
Since net income is positive, we lead with the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is an extremely high 3,495.6x, but the forward P/E of 53.9x is far more reasonable, implying the market expects a massive earnings jump. The gap between trailing and forward P/E reflects the recent swing to profitability and anticipated growth, with analysts forecasting EPS of $3.24 for the next fiscal year. Compared to the semiconductor industry average P/E of roughly 25x, LSCC's forward P/E of 53.9x represents a 116% premium. This premium is justified by the company's superior revenue growth (42% YoY) and expanding margins, but it also prices in high expectations. Historically, LSCC's trailing P/E has ranged from 23x to over 3,000x, with the current level near the top of its historical band. The forward P/E of 53.9x is above the 5-year average of around 40x, indicating the market is pricing in optimistic growth expectations. The P/S ratio of 20.6x is also elevated versus the industry average of ~8x, further confirming a premium valuation.
PE
3495.6x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range 24x~256x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
191.7x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: LSCC's primary financial risk is its extreme valuation dependency on continued high growth. The trailing P/E of 3,495x and forward P/E of 53.9x leave no room for disappointment. While the balance sheet is strong with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.11, the company's net margin of 12.8% is still relatively thin for a premium valuation. Revenue concentration in industrial and communications markets could expose the company to cyclical downturns. Additionally, the company has a history of volatile earnings, with net income swinging from a loss of $7.6 million in Q4 2025 to a profit of $21.8 million in Q1 2026, making earnings visibility low.
Market & Competitive Risks: The stock's high beta of 1.78 means it is highly sensitive to macro factors and market sentiment. In a rising interest rate environment or economic slowdown, growth stocks like LSCC are often the first to be sold off. The semiconductor industry is intensely competitive, with larger players like Xilinx (now AMD) and Intel dominating the FPGA market. LSCC's niche in low-power FPGAs could be challenged if competitors introduce similar products. The stock's premium valuation (P/S 20.6x vs industry 8x) makes it vulnerable to multiple compression if growth decelerates. Recent news is sparse, but the lack of negative catalysts is a positive.
Worst-Case Scenario: In a severe downturn, LSCC could see its revenue growth decelerate to single digits or negative, margins compress, and the stock re-rate to a more conservative multiple. The 52-week low of $46.43 represents a potential downside of 63% from the current price of $125.23. Analyst low target of $105 implies a 16% downside, but in a bear case, the stock could fall to the 52-week low if the company misses earnings and guidance. Historical max drawdown of 19.8% suggests a 20% correction is possible, but a worst-case scenario could see a 50%+ decline if the growth narrative breaks.
FAQ
The key risks are: 1) Valuation risk: The forward P/E of 53.9x is high, and any earnings miss could lead to a sharp de-rating. 2) Growth deceleration: If revenue growth falls below 30%, the stock could decline significantly. 3) Competitive risk: Larger FPGA players like AMD and Intel could erode LSCC's market share in low-power FPGAs. 4) Macro risk: With a beta of 1.78, LSCC is highly sensitive to market downturns and interest rate hikes. The most severe risk is a combination of growth deceleration and multiple compression, which could drive the stock down to the 52-week low of $46.43, a 63% decline from current levels.
The 12-month forecast is based on three scenarios. The base case (50% probability) sees the stock trading around the analyst average target of $148.33, implying 18.4% upside, assuming 30-35% revenue growth and stable margins. The bull case (25% probability) targets $175 (analyst high) if growth accelerates and margins expand, driven by AI edge computing demand. The bear case (25% probability) sees the stock falling to $105 (analyst low) if growth decelerates below 20% or margins compress. The most likely scenario is the base case, given the strong momentum but high expectations. Key assumptions include sustained revenue growth above 30% and gross margins above 68%.
LSCC is overvalued on a trailing basis with a P/E of 3,495x, but the forward P/E of 53.9x is more reasonable and reflects expected earnings growth. Compared to the semiconductor industry average forward P/E of about 25x, LSCC trades at a 116% premium. Historically, the stock's 5-year average forward P/E is around 40x, so the current 53.9x is above average. The P/S ratio of 20.6x is also well above the industry average of 8x. This premium is justified by the company's superior revenue growth (42% YoY) and margin expansion, but it leaves little room for error. The market is pricing in continued high growth, making the stock fairly valued to slightly overvalued based on current expectations.
LSCC is a good buy for growth-oriented investors with a high risk tolerance. The stock offers 18.4% upside to the analyst average target of $148.33, supported by 42% YoY revenue growth and expanding margins. However, the forward P/E of 53.9x is 116% above the semiconductor industry average, meaning the stock is priced for perfection. The biggest downside risk is a growth deceleration that could trigger multiple compression. For investors who believe in the edge AI and industrial automation theme, LSCC is a compelling pick, but it is not suitable for conservative or income-focused investors due to its high volatility and zero dividend yield.
LSCC is more suitable for long-term investment given its growth stage and high volatility. The company is in a growth phase with accelerating revenue and expanding margins, but the stock's beta of 1.78 means it can experience sharp swings in the short term. The zero dividend yield makes it unattractive for income investors. For long-term investors (3-5 years), the edge AI and industrial automation themes provide a secular growth tailwind. Short-term traders may find opportunities in the stock's volatility, but the recent 20% pullback from the high suggests caution. A minimum holding period of 12 months is recommended to allow the growth story to play out and reduce the impact of short-term noise.