Lattice Semiconductor
LSCC
$117.69
+0.11%
Lattice Semiconductor Corp is a fabless semiconductor company specializing in low-power field-programmable gate arrays (FPGAs), along with related software, IP licensing, and development boards, serving the communications, computing, industrial, automotive, and consumer markets. As a niche leader in low-power programmable logic, Lattice differentiates itself through energy-efficient edge computing solutions, competing against larger FPGA players like Xilinx (AMD) and Intel. The current investor narrative centers on a robust recovery in revenue growth, driven by new product cycles and AI-driven edge applications, while the stock has experienced significant volatility amid broader semiconductor market swings and a recent sharp pullback from its 52-week high, raising questions about valuation sustainability and near-term momentum.…
LSCC
Lattice Semiconductor
$117.69
Investment Opinion: Should I buy LSCC Today?
Based on the analysis, LSCC is rated a Buy with a thesis that the company is in the early stages of a strong revenue recovery, driven by new product cycles and AI edge applications, which should translate into significant earnings growth. The average analyst target of $164.92 implies a 40% upside, and the consensus is bullish, with all 12 analysts rating it Buy or Overweight. The stock's forward PE of 36.7x is justified by the expected EPS growth to $4.24, which would represent a PEG ratio below 1 if growth sustains. However, the extreme trailing PE and recent price weakness highlight the risk of a growth stall. This Buy rating would be downgraded to Hold if revenue growth decelerates below 20% or if the forward PE expands above 45x, and upgraded to a Strong Buy if the stock pulls back to $100 while fundamentals remain intact. Overall, the stock is fairly valued relative to its growth potential, but investors should be prepared for volatility.
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LSCC 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment leans bullish, driven by the strong revenue inflection and the market's expectation of a robust earnings recovery. The forward PE of 36.7x is not unreasonable if the company can deliver on its growth targets, and the analyst targets suggest significant upside. However, the high beta and recent price weakness introduce uncertainty, so the confidence is medium. I would upgrade to high confidence if the next earnings report shows continued acceleration, and downgrade to neutral if growth decelerates below 20%.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Lattice Semiconductor's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $164.92 and implied upside of +40.1% versus the current price.
Average Target
$164.92
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+40.1%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$125 - $180
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage is robust with 12 analysts providing targets, and the consensus recommendation is a Buy (though the data shows 'none' for the formal rating, the institutional ratings list shows all Buy/Outperform/Overweight actions). The average target price is $164.92, implying a substantial 40.1% upside from the current price of $117.69. The targets range from a low of $125.00 to a high of $180.00, with the low still representing a 6.2% upside, indicating that even the most bearish analyst sees limited downside. The high target of $180 suggests expectations of continued growth and multiple expansion, while the low target likely reflects concerns about near-term volatility and potential margin pressure.
Bulls vs Bears: LSCC Investment Factors
Lattice Semiconductor presents a compelling growth story with accelerating revenue, strong gross margins, and a robust balance sheet, but the stock trades at a premium valuation that leaves little room for error. The bull case is supported by a 42% revenue surge and analyst targets implying 40% upside, while the bear case is anchored by an extreme trailing PE and recent price weakness. The most critical tension is whether the earnings recovery will materialize fast enough to justify the forward multiple, as any shortfall could trigger a significant de-rating. Currently, the evidence slightly favors the bulls given the strong fundamental inflection, but the high beta and rich valuation warrant caution.
Bullish
- Revenue growth accelerating sharply: Q1 2026 revenue surged 42.24% YoY to $170.9M, up from 9.7% growth in Q4 2025, signaling a strong inflection. This acceleration is driven by new product ramps and robust demand in industrial and communications, positioning Lattice for continued momentum.
- Analyst targets imply 40% upside: The average analyst target of $164.92 represents a 40.1% upside from the current price of $117.69, with even the lowest target of $125.00 offering a 6.2% gain. This consensus suggests the market has not fully priced in the earnings recovery.
- High gross margins of 68.8%: Lattice maintains a gross margin of 68.8% (Q1 2026), reflecting its fabless model and differentiated low-power FPGA portfolio. This provides a strong foundation for operating leverage as revenue scales, supporting future profitability.
- Strong balance sheet with low debt: Debt-to-equity is only 0.11, and the current ratio is 3.09, indicating ample liquidity and financial flexibility. This allows the company to invest in R&D and weather cyclical downturns without financial distress.
Bearish
- Extreme trailing PE of 3,495x: The trailing PE is an astronomical 3,495.6x due to depressed earnings over the past year, making the stock look extremely overvalued on historical earnings. This leaves no room for error if the recovery stalls.
- Recent price momentum has reversed: The stock has fallen 14.2% in the last month and 17.8% in the last three months, breaking below key moving averages. This negative momentum could persist if the broader semiconductor sell-off continues.
- High beta of 1.8 amplifies market swings: With a beta of 1.8, LSCC is highly sensitive to market movements, meaning it could drop significantly more than the market in a downturn. This adds substantial risk for investors with lower risk tolerance.
- Forward PE of 36.7x is rich: Even on forward earnings, the stock trades at 36.7x, a premium to the semiconductor industry average. This valuation assumes flawless execution and could compress if growth decelerates or margins disappoint.
LSCC Technical Analysis
LSCC has exhibited a powerful long-term uptrend, with the stock up 91.27% over the past year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 20.48% gain. Currently trading at $117.69, the price sits at 57.5% of its 52-week range (low: $60.50, high: $157.01), indicating a pullback from the highs but still well above the lows. This positioning suggests the stock is in a corrective phase within a broader bullish structure, with the 52-week low representing a strong support level and the high acting as resistance.
Beta
1.80
1.80x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-27.3%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$61-$157
Price range past year
Annual Return
+91.3%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | LSCC Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -14.2% | +3.6% |
| 3m | -17.8% | +2.7% |
| 6m | +20.4% | +11.4% |
| 1y | +91.3% | +18.7% |
| ytd | +49.6% | +12.3% |
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LSCC Fundamental Analysis
Revenue has rebounded strongly, with the most recent quarter (Q1 2026) showing $170.9 million, a 42.24% year-over-year increase, accelerating from the prior quarter's 9.7% growth (Q4 2025: $145.8M vs. $117.4M in Q4 2024). This marks a clear inflection from the 2025 downturn, where quarterly revenue dipped to $120.2M in Q1 2025. The growth is broad-based, with the company's core FPGA products driving demand, though the license and service segment contributed $4.5M in the quarter. The acceleration suggests successful new product ramps and improving end-market demand, particularly in industrial and communications.
Quarterly Revenue
$170897000.0B
2026-04
Revenue YoY Growth
+42.2%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
68.8%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$161239000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is LSCC Overvalued?
Given that Lattice is profitable on a trailing basis (net income of $21.8M in Q1 2026), the PE ratio is the primary valuation metric. The trailing PE is an extreme 3,495.6x due to depressed earnings over the past year, while the forward PE is 36.68x, reflecting the market's expectation of a sharp earnings recovery. This wide gap between trailing and forward multiples indicates that investors are pricing in significant near-term profit growth, which is consistent with the recent revenue acceleration and analyst estimates for EPS of $4.24 in the coming year.
PE
3495.6x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range 24x~256x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
191.7x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial risks are significant due to the extreme trailing PE of 3,495x, which reflects a near-zero earnings base that could be volatile. The company's net margin is only 0.59% (TTM), and it reported a net loss in Q4 2025, indicating that profitability is not yet stable. However, the balance sheet is strong with a debt-to-equity of 0.11 and a current ratio of 3.09, providing a cushion. The primary financial risk is that the expected earnings recovery may be slower than anticipated, leaving the stock vulnerable to a sharp de-rating if growth disappoints.
FAQ
The key risks include: 1) Financial risk: The company's earnings are volatile, with a net margin of only 0.59% TTM, and it posted a loss in Q4 2025. 2) Competitive risk: Larger FPGA players like AMD and Intel could intensify competition, pressuring market share and margins. 3) Macro risk: With a beta of 1.8, LSCC is highly sensitive to market downturns, and a semiconductor cycle downturn could hit the stock hard. 4) Valuation risk: The forward PE of 36.7x leaves little room for error; any growth disappointment could lead to a sharp de-rating.
The 12-month forecast for LSCC is bullish, with a base case target of $130-$165 (50% probability), a bull case of $150-$180 (30% probability), and a bear case of $100-$125 (20% probability). The most likely scenario is the base case, which assumes continued revenue growth of around 40% and successful earnings recovery. The average analyst target is $164.92, implying a 40% upside. However, the stock's high beta means the actual outcome could be more extreme in either direction.
LSCC is trading at a forward PE of 36.7x, which is a premium to the semiconductor industry average of around 20x. This suggests the market is pricing in significant earnings growth, which is supported by the expected EPS of $4.24. However, the trailing PE of 3,495x is extremely high, reflecting the depressed earnings of the past year. Relative to its growth potential, the stock is fairly valued, but it is not cheap. The market expects a strong recovery, and if that fails to materialize, the stock could be overvalued.
LSCC is a good buy for investors with a high risk tolerance and a long-term perspective, given the strong revenue growth and analyst upside. The average analyst target of $164.92 implies a 40% upside, and the company's low-power FPGA solutions are gaining traction in AI edge applications. However, the stock is volatile with a beta of 1.8, and the trailing PE is extremely high at 3,495x, so it is not suitable for conservative investors. If you believe in the AI edge growth story and can withstand short-term fluctuations, LSCC offers an attractive risk/reward.
LSCC is better suited for long-term investment, given its growth stage and the potential for the AI edge market to expand over several years. The company has a strong balance sheet and is investing in R&D to maintain its competitive edge. However, the stock is highly volatile with a beta of 1.8, making it risky for short-term trading. A minimum holding period of 2-3 years is recommended to allow the earnings recovery to play out and to ride out market cycles. Short-term traders may find opportunities, but they should be prepared for significant price swings.