Moog Inc.
MOG-A
$389.85
-7.01%
Moog Inc. designs and manufactures high-precision motion and fluid control systems for aerospace, defense, and industrial markets. As a niche technology leader, it holds a critical position in flight controls, missile steering, and industrial automation components. The current investor narrative centers on robust defense spending and commercial aerospace recovery, driving double-digit revenue growth and margin expansion, while the stock has rallied over 100% in the past year.…
MOG-A
Moog Inc.
$389.85
MOG-A 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Moog Inc.'s 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $413.80 and implied upside of +6.1% versus the current price.
Average Target
$413.80
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+6.1%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$344 - $520
Analyst target range
Four analysts cover Moog, with a consensus recommendation of Buy (mean score 1.75 on a 1-5 scale, where 1 is Strong Buy). The average target price is $387.25, implying a -1.5% downside from the current price of $393.31. The distribution shows 3 Buy ratings and 1 Hold (Equal Weight), leaning bullish but with limited upside. The target range spans from $344.00 (low) to $450.00 (high). The high target of $450 assumes continued momentum in defense and commercial aerospace, while the low target of $344 factors in potential margin compression or order delays. The spread of $106 (27% of the average) indicates moderate uncertainty. Recent ratings from TD Cowen (Buy, June 2026) and Truist Securities (Buy, October 2025) reinforce positive sentiment, while Morgan Stanley maintains an Equal Weight stance. The limited coverage (4 analysts) suggests Moog is a mid-cap with moderate institutional interest.
Bulls vs Bears: MOG-A Investment Factors
Moog presents a compelling growth story driven by defense spending and commercial aerospace recovery, with double-digit revenue growth and expanding margins. The bull case is supported by accelerating revenue, improving profitability, and a healthy balance sheet. However, the stock's premium valuation (P/E 27.6x vs. industry 22x) and limited analyst upside (-1.5% to average target) temper enthusiasm. The single most important tension is whether the company can sustain its 12.5%+ revenue growth and expand margins to justify the current multiple, or if growth deceleration will lead to multiple compression. Currently, the bull case has stronger evidence given the robust operational performance, but the valuation leaves little room for error.
Bullish
- Double-digit revenue growth accelerating: Q2 FY2026 revenue grew 12.5% YoY to $1.052B, following Q1's 20.9% surge. Growth is broad-based across Space & Defense ($314M) and Commercial Aircraft ($247M), indicating strong demand in core markets.
- Improving profitability and margins: Net income rose 46.7% YoY to $81.8M in Q2, with net margin expanding from 6.0% to 7.8%. Operating margin held steady at 10.5%, while free cash flow turned positive at $98M in Q2 after a negative Q1.
- Strong defense and aerospace tailwinds: Moog's Space and Defense segment revenue of $314M and Military Aircraft at $235M benefit from elevated global defense budgets. Commercial Aircraft recovery adds further momentum, with the segment contributing $247M.
- Healthy balance sheet with low leverage: Debt-to-equity of 0.47x is moderate, and current ratio of 2.12x provides ample liquidity. Free cash flow TTM of $204M supports organic growth and dividends.
Bearish
- Stock trades at premium valuation: Trailing P/E of 27.6x is 25% above the Aerospace & Defense industry average of ~22x. Forward P/E of 33.9x suggests the market expects earnings growth to decelerate, making the stock vulnerable to multiple compression.
- Limited upside to analyst targets: The average analyst target of $387.25 implies a -1.5% downside from the current price of $393.31. Even the high target of $450 offers only 14.4% upside, while the low target of $344 suggests 12.5% downside.
- Gross margin pressure persists: Gross margin in Q2 FY2026 was 26.1%, down from 27.4% a year ago. This indicates cost inflation or mix shift, which could weigh on earnings if not offset by operating leverage.
- Short-term momentum diverges: The stock is down 4.4% in the past month despite a 22.0% gain over three months and a 104.8% gain over one year. This short-term pullback may signal consolidation or profit-taking near the 52-week high of $430.52.
MOG-A Technical Analysis
Moog is in a sustained uptrend, with the stock up 104.8% over the past year. The current price of $393.31 sits at 91.4% of its 52-week range ($176.28–$430.52), indicating strong momentum near the highs. This positioning suggests bullish sentiment but also raises caution about potential overextension. Short-term momentum shows a 1-month decline of -4.4%, diverging from the 3-month gain of 22.0% and the 1-year gain of 104.8%. This short-term pullback could signal a temporary consolidation or profit-taking within the longer-term uptrend. The stock's beta of 0.956 indicates slightly lower volatility than the market, which is unusual for a high-growth aerospace name. Key support lies at the 52-week low of $176.28, while resistance is at the 52-week high of $430.52. A breakout above $430.52 would signal continued strength, while a breakdown below recent support near $382 (the previous close) could test lower levels. The stock's relatively low beta suggests it may offer a smoother ride than peers.
Beta
0.96
0.96x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-33.2%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$186-$431
Price range past year
Annual Return
+102.3%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | MOG-A Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -7.4% | +0.2% |
| 3m | +29.8% | +3.7% |
| 6m | +27.9% | +8.0% |
| 1y | +102.3% | +18.2% |
| ytd | +56.3% | +9.6% |
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MOG-A Fundamental Analysis
Revenue has been growing steadily, with the most recent quarter (Q2 FY2026) reporting $1.052 billion, up 12.5% year-over-year. This follows a trend of accelerating growth: Q1 FY2026 revenue was $1.100 billion (+20.9% YoY), Q4 FY2025 was $1.049 billion (+14.1% YoY), and Q3 FY2025 was $971 million (+7.4% YoY). The growth is broad-based, with Space and Defense ($314M) and Commercial Aircraft ($247M) leading, while Industrial ($256M) and Military Aircraft ($235M) also contribute. The company is profitable, with net income of $81.8 million in Q2 FY2026, up from $55.8 million a year ago. Gross margin was 26.1%, slightly below the prior year's 27.4%, but operating margin improved to 10.5% from 10.5% (stable). Net margin rose to 7.8% from 6.0%, indicating improving cost control. The balance sheet is healthy: debt-to-equity of 0.47x is moderate, and the current ratio of 2.12x provides ample liquidity. Free cash flow for the trailing twelve months is $204 million, though Q2 FY2026 FCF was $98 million positive after a negative Q1. ROE of 11.8% is solid, and the company generates enough cash to fund operations and dividends.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.1B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+12.5%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
26.1%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$203980000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is MOG-A Overvalued?
Since net income is positive, the trailing P/E of 27.6x is the primary metric. The forward P/E of 33.9x implies the market expects earnings growth to decelerate, as the higher forward multiple suggests lower future earnings relative to price. Compared to the Aerospace & Defense industry average P/E of approximately 22x (based on sector data), Moog trades at a 25% premium. This premium is justified by its superior revenue growth (12.5% YoY vs. industry ~8%) and niche market position. Historically, Moog's trailing P/E has ranged from 12x to 37x over the past five years. The current 27.6x is above the historical median of ~20x, indicating the market is pricing in optimistic growth expectations. The P/B of 3.25x is also elevated relative to historical averages, suggesting the stock is not cheap.
PE
27.6x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range 13x~30x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
15.1x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: Moog's debt-to-equity of 0.47x is manageable, but interest expense of $15.5M in Q2 consumes a portion of operating income ($110M). Gross margin declined from 27.4% to 26.1% YoY, signaling potential cost pressures. Free cash flow was negative in Q1 FY2026 (-$98M) before rebounding in Q2, indicating some volatility. Revenue concentration in defense (Space & Defense $314M, Military Aircraft $235M) exposes the company to budget cycles, though current tailwinds are strong.
Market & Competitive Risks: The stock's trailing P/E of 27.6x is above its historical median of ~20x and the industry average of 22x, making it vulnerable to valuation compression if growth slows. With a beta of 0.956, the stock is slightly less volatile than the market, but a broad market downturn could still pressure the multiple. Limited analyst coverage (4 analysts) and a short ratio of 1.5 suggest moderate institutional interest, which could amplify moves on news.
Worst-Case Scenario: A sharp downturn in defense spending or a commercial aerospace recession could cause revenue growth to stall. If margins compress further and earnings disappoint, the stock could fall to the 52-week low of $176.28, representing a 55% decline from the current price of $393.31. This scenario would likely require multiple contraction to historical lows (P/E ~12x) and a significant earnings miss.