M/A-COM Technology Solutions
MTSI
$266.61
+0.16%
MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. designs and manufactures analog, digital, and mixed-signal semiconductor solutions for original equipment manufacturers and distributors, serving industrial, medical, scientific, and test-and-measurement markets. The company is a niche player in high-performance analog semiconductors, differentiating itself through a broad portfolio of integrated circuits, multichip modules, and power components. Currently, the stock is attracting attention due to its strong revenue growth and expansion into data center and AI-related applications, though recent price volatility reflects investor debate over valuation and near-term momentum. The company's recent quarterly results showed a 22.5% year-over-year revenue increase, underscoring its growth trajectory.…
MTSI
M/A-COM Technology Solutions
$266.61
Investment Opinion: Should I buy MTSI Today?
Based on the analysis, MTSI is rated a Buy. The company's strong revenue growth, expanding margins, and analyst consensus support a positive outlook. The average analyst target of $399.64 implies significant upside, and the PEG ratio of 1.04 suggests fair valuation relative to growth.
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MTSI 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is bullish, driven by strong growth metrics and a reasonable valuation relative to growth. However, confidence is medium due to high beta and recent volatility. The stance would be upgraded if revenue growth accelerates above 25% and margins continue to expand, while a downgrade would occur if growth falls below 15% or margins compress.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on M/A-COM Technology Solutions's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $395.33 and implied upside of +48.3% versus the current price.
Average Target
$395.33
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+48.3%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$300 - $475
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage is robust, with 14 analysts providing ratings, and the consensus recommendation is a 'Buy' with a mean rating of 1.6 (where 1 is Strong Buy and 5 is Sell). The average target price is $399.64, implying a 49.9% upside from the current price of $266.61. The target range spans from a low of $300.00 to a high of $475.00, indicating a wide dispersion in expectations. The high target suggests analysts anticipate a recovery to previous highs, driven by continued growth in data center and AI applications, while the low target reflects concerns about valuation and potential margin compression. Recent ratings have been predominantly positive, with firms like Stifel, Barclays, and Needham maintaining Buy or Overweight ratings, signaling sustained institutional confidence in the company's growth story.
Bulls vs Bears: MTSI Investment Factors
MACOM presents a compelling growth story with strong revenue acceleration, margin expansion, and positive analyst sentiment. However, the stock trades at a premium valuation, and recent price volatility highlights risks. The bull case is supported by robust fundamentals and a clear growth trajectory, while the bear case centers on valuation concerns and market sensitivity. The most critical tension is whether the company can sustain its high growth rates to justify its premium multiple, or if any deceleration will trigger a significant de-rating.
Bullish
- Strong Revenue Growth: Revenue grew 22.5% YoY in Q2 2026 to $288.955M, with sequential acceleration from $252.079M in Q3 2025 to $271.612M in Q1 2026. This growth is driven by data center and AI applications, positioning MACOM in high-demand markets.
- Expanding Gross Margins: Gross margin improved to 56.9% in Q2 2026 from 53.7% in Q3 2025, reflecting better product mix and operational leverage. This margin expansion enhances profitability and supports higher valuation multiples.
- Analyst Consensus Buy: With 14 analysts, the consensus rating is 'Buy' (mean 1.6) and the average target price is $399.64, implying 49.9% upside from the current price of $266.61. Recent ratings from Stifel, Barclays, and Needham remain positive.
- Fair PEG Ratio: The forward PE of 31.4x and PEG ratio of 1.04 suggest the stock is fairly valued relative to its growth rate. This indicates the market is pricing in reasonable expectations for future earnings growth.
Bearish
- High Valuation Premium: The forward PE of 31.4x is 26% above the semiconductor industry average of ~25x. The EV-to-EBITDA of 247.6x is extremely elevated, reflecting high expectations that leave little room for error.
- Recent Price Volatility: The stock has fallen 30.9% over the past 3 months and is trading 36.4% below its 52-week high of $418.90. This volatility suggests investor uncertainty and potential for further downside if sentiment weakens.
- Negative Trailing EPS: The trailing PE is -174.5x due to a one-time loss in Q1 2025, which distorts historical earnings comparisons. This highlights earnings volatility and the impact of non-recurring items.
- High Beta Exposure: With a beta of 1.71, the stock is highly sensitive to market movements. In a market downturn, MACOM could underperform, amplifying losses for investors.
MTSI Technical Analysis
MACOM's stock has exhibited a powerful long-term uptrend, with a 1-year price change of +115.7%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's +20.5% over the same period. The current price of $266.61 sits at 63.6% of the 52-week range (low $121.97, high $418.90), indicating the stock has pulled back substantially from its highs but remains well above its lows. This positioning suggests the market is digesting a massive run-up, with the stock trading in the middle of its range after a sharp correction.
Beta
1.71
1.71x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-44.2%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$122-$419
Price range past year
Annual Return
+115.7%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | MTSI Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -5.7% | +3.6% |
| 3m | -30.9% | +2.7% |
| 6m | +9.5% | +11.4% |
| 1y | +115.7% | +18.7% |
| ytd | +52.4% | +12.3% |
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MTSI Fundamental Analysis
MACOM's revenue growth has been robust, with the most recent quarter (Q2 2026) reporting revenue of $288.955 million, a 22.5% year-over-year increase. This growth is accelerating, as prior quarters showed sequential increases from $252.079 million in Q3 2025 to $271.612 million in Q1 2026. The company's gross margin expanded to 56.9% in Q2 2026, up from 53.7% in Q3 2025, indicating improving product mix and operational leverage. Net income for Q2 2026 was $46.331 million, a significant improvement from the $36.534 million reported in Q3 2025, reflecting a net margin of 16.0%.
Quarterly Revenue
$288955000.0B
2026-04
Revenue YoY Growth
+22.5%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
56.9%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$152490000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is MTSI Overvalued?
Given that MACOM's trailing twelve-month net income is positive (EPS of $0.62 in Q2 2026), the PE ratio is the primary valuation metric. The trailing PE is -174.5x due to a one-time loss in Q1 2025, but the forward PE of 31.4x is more indicative of current earnings power. This forward multiple implies the market expects significant earnings growth, which is supported by the PEG ratio of 1.04, suggesting the stock is fairly valued relative to its growth rate. Compared to the semiconductor industry average PE of approximately 25x, MACOM trades at a 26% premium, reflecting its superior growth prospects and niche market position.
PE
-174.5x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 4x~129x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
247.6x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financially, MACOM carries a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.41 and a strong current ratio of 3.71, indicating low liquidity risk. However, the company's earnings are volatile, as seen in the negative EPS in Q1 2025 due to a one-time loss, and the trailing PE is negative. The reliance on continued revenue growth to justify the high valuation is a key risk; if growth decelerates, the stock could face multiple compression. Additionally, the operating margin of 13.4% is relatively thin, leaving limited buffer against cost increases or pricing pressure.
FAQ
The key risks include: 1) Valuation risk - the stock trades at a premium, leaving little room for error; 2) Market risk - high beta (1.71) means it could fall more than the market in a downturn; 3) Competitive risk - the semiconductor industry is competitive, and new entrants could pressure margins; 4) Company-specific risk - dependence on AI/data center demand, which could slow. The most severe risk is a combination of these factors leading to a significant de-rating.
The 12-month forecast is bullish, with a base case target of $350-400 (50% probability), bull case of $400-475 (30% probability), and bear case of $250-300 (20% probability). The most likely scenario is the base case, assuming continued growth around 20% and stable margins. The stock is expected to appreciate from the current price of $266.61, driven by strong fundamentals and analyst support.
MTSI's forward PE of 31.4x is above the industry average of 25x, indicating a premium valuation. However, the PEG ratio of 1.04 suggests it is fairly valued relative to its growth rate. The market is pricing in strong future earnings growth, which is supported by the company's recent performance. If growth continues, the valuation is justified; if not, the stock could be overvalued.
MTSI is a good buy for investors seeking growth, given its 22.5% revenue growth and analyst upside of 49.9%. However, the stock is volatile (beta 1.71) and trades at a premium valuation, so it's suitable for those with a higher risk tolerance. The key risk is a slowdown in AI spending, which could lead to a de-rating. For long-term investors, the growth story remains intact, but short-term traders should be cautious of price swings.
MTSI is more suitable for long-term investment due to its growth potential and the secular tailwinds in AI and data centers. The stock's high beta (1.71) makes it volatile in the short term, but over a 3-5 year horizon, the growth story could deliver substantial returns. A minimum holding period of 2-3 years is recommended to ride out volatility and capture the full growth trajectory.