nCino, Inc. Common Stock
NCNO
$20.81
+0.73%
nCino, Inc. is a cloud-based software provider that transforms commercial and small business lending for financial institutions, primarily serving community and regional banks in the U.S. The company's platform enhances operational efficiency, improves employee and client experiences, and enables continuous risk and compliance management. nCino has expanded its capabilities through strategic acquisitions, including SimpleNexus, DocFox, and FullCircl, positioning itself as a comprehensive solution provider in the fintech lending space. Currently, the stock is attracting attention due to its recent earnings turnaround, with the latest quarter showing profitability and strong revenue growth, while the broader market remains cautious about its long-term growth trajectory and competitive positioning.…
NCNO
nCino, Inc. Common Stock
$20.81
Investment Opinion: Should I buy NCNO Today?
Based on the analysis, NCNO is rated a Hold. The recent profitability turnaround and positive free cash flow are encouraging, but the decelerating revenue growth and high valuation warrant caution. The consensus analyst target of $23.36 offers a modest 12.3% upside, but the wide range of targets ($17-$28) reflects uncertainty. The stock is suitable for investors with a higher risk tolerance who believe in the company's long-term platform strategy.
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NCNO 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is neutral with medium confidence. While the company has shown signs of a turnaround, the decelerating revenue growth and high valuation create uncertainty. The forward PE suggests the market is pricing in a strong earnings recovery, but the negative PEG ratio indicates that growth expectations may be too optimistic. If the company can sustain its profitability and reaccelerate growth, the stance would upgrade to bullish. Conversely, if growth continues to slow or margins deteriorate, the stance would become bearish.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on nCino, Inc. Common Stock's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $23.36 and implied upside of +12.3% versus the current price.
Average Target
$23.36
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+12.3%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$17 - $28
Analyst target range
The consensus target price of $23.36 represents a 12.3% upside from the current price, but the range from $17.00 to $28.00 highlights divergent views. The low target may reflect concerns about competitive pressures or slower growth, while the high target assumes successful execution of the company's platform strategy and margin expansion. With 11 analysts covering the stock, the coverage is moderate, and the recent upgrade by Piper Sandler suggests some positive momentum in sentiment. However, the lack of a clear consensus recommendation (none) indicates that analysts are divided on the stock's prospects, which could lead to volatility.
Bulls vs Bears: NCNO Investment Factors
The bull case is supported by the recent profitability turnaround, strong gross margins, and positive free cash flow, which indicate improving fundamentals. However, the bear case is compelling due to decelerating revenue growth, an extremely high trailing PE, and significant underperformance relative to the market. Currently, the bearish evidence is stronger because the valuation is stretched and growth is slowing, but the forward PE suggests the market expects a dramatic earnings recovery. The key tension is whether the company can sustain its recent profitability improvements and reaccelerate revenue growth to justify its valuation. If growth stabilizes and margins expand, the stock could re-rate higher; otherwise, it risks further downside.
Bullish
- Recent profitability turnaround: The company reported positive EPS of $0.07 in Q4 FY2026, a significant improvement from the -$0.16 loss in the same quarter last year. Net income turned positive at $8.34 million, demonstrating successful cost management and operational leverage.
- Strong gross margin of 61.4%: Gross margin remained healthy at 61.41% in the latest quarter, indicating solid unit economics for a software company. This provides a strong foundation for future profitability as the company scales.
- Positive free cash flow: Free cash flow for the trailing twelve months is $82.56 million, showing the business generates cash despite modest GAAP earnings. This supports investment in growth initiatives and reduces reliance on external financing.
- Analyst target upside of 12.3%: The consensus analyst target price of $23.36 implies a 12.3% upside from the current price of $20.81. The high target of $28.00 suggests potential for a 34.6% gain if the company executes well.
Bearish
- Decelerating revenue growth: Revenue growth slowed to 5.87% YoY in Q4 FY2026, down from double-digit growth in prior years. This deceleration may signal market saturation or increased competition, limiting the stock's premium valuation.
- Extremely high trailing PE of 427x: The trailing PE ratio of 427x is unsustainable unless earnings grow dramatically. While the forward PE of 13.92x suggests expected improvement, any miss in earnings growth could lead to severe multiple compression.
- Negative PEG ratio of -3.71: The negative PEG ratio indicates that the market's growth expectations are not aligned with current earnings momentum. This suggests the stock may be overvalued relative to its growth prospects.
- Significant underperformance vs. S&P 500: Over the past year, NCNO has declined 24.46% while the S&P 500 gained 20.37%, resulting in a relative strength of -44.83%. This persistent underperformance may reflect structural challenges or loss of investor confidence.
NCNO Technical Analysis
The stock is in a recovery phase after a prolonged downtrend. Over the past year, NCNO has declined 24.46%, but it has rebounded strongly from its 52-week low of $13.80, currently trading at $20.81, which is 61.3% of the 52-week range (between the low and high of $33.92). This positioning suggests the stock is recovering from oversold conditions but remains well below its highs, indicating potential for further upside if momentum continues. The 1-year relative strength versus the S&P 500 is -44.83%, reflecting significant underperformance, though the recent rally is narrowing that gap.
Beta
0.66
0.66x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-57.1%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$14-$34
Price range past year
Annual Return
-24.5%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | NCNO Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +17.0% | +4.5% |
| 3m | +39.0% | +5.1% |
| 6m | +28.9% | +13.7% |
| 1y | -24.5% | +20.6% |
| ytd | -15.6% | +13.8% |
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NCNO Fundamental Analysis
Revenue growth has been steady, with the most recent quarter (Q4 FY2026, ending January 31, 2026) showing revenue of $149.67 million, up 5.87% year-over-year. This growth rate is modest but consistent, with prior quarters showing sequential increases from $128.09 million in Q1 FY2025 to $152.16 million in Q3 FY2026. The company's gross margin remains healthy at 61.41% in the latest quarter, indicating strong unit economics. However, revenue growth is decelerating from earlier double-digit rates, which could be a concern for investors seeking high-growth software stocks.
Quarterly Revenue
$149666000.0B
2026-01
Revenue YoY Growth
+5.9%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
61.4%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$82564000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is NCNO Overvalued?
Given that net income is positive (EPS of $0.07 in the latest quarter), the PE ratio is the primary valuation metric. The trailing PE is 427x, which is extremely high, while the forward PE is 13.92x, implying the market expects significant earnings growth. This wide gap suggests that the market is pricing in a substantial improvement in profitability, which is supported by the recent turnaround. The PS ratio is 4.05x, which is reasonable for a software company, but the PEG ratio is negative at -3.71, indicating that growth expectations are not fully captured by the current earnings multiple.
PE
427.0x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range 73x~120x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
39.2x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial risks include a high debt-to-equity ratio of 0.26, which is manageable but could increase if the company takes on more debt to fund acquisitions. The current ratio of 0.997 indicates that current liabilities slightly exceed current assets, posing a liquidity risk if cash flow deteriorates. Additionally, the company's reliance on continued revenue growth to justify its valuation is risky, as any slowdown could lead to multiple compression. The negative PEG ratio of -3.71 highlights that growth expectations are not fully supported by current earnings, increasing the risk of a de-rating if growth disappoints.
FAQ
The key risks are: 1) Financial risk: high debt-to-equity ratio of 0.26 and current ratio below 1, indicating potential liquidity concerns. 2) Competitive risk: decelerating revenue growth (5.87% YoY) suggests increased competition or market saturation. 3) Macro risk: the stock has a beta of 0.663, but its relative underperformance (-44.83% vs S&P 500) indicates company-specific issues. 4) Valuation risk: the trailing PE of 427x leaves little room for error; any earnings miss could lead to a sharp de-rating. The most severe risk is a continued growth slowdown, which could push the stock toward the 52-week low of $13.80, representing a 33.7% downside from the current price.
The 12-month forecast is mixed. In the base case (50% probability), the stock trades around $23.36, the consensus target, implying a 12.3% upside. In the bull case (25% probability), it could reach $28, a 34.6% gain, if revenue growth reaccelerates and margins expand. In the bear case (25% probability), it could fall to $17 or lower, a potential 18.3% loss, if growth decelerates further. The most likely scenario is the base case, assuming the company maintains its current growth trajectory and gradually improves profitability.
NCNO appears overvalued based on trailing earnings, with a PE of 427x, but the forward PE of 13.92x suggests the market expects significant earnings growth. The PS ratio of 4.05x is reasonable for a software company, but the negative PEG ratio of -3.71 indicates that growth expectations are not fully supported by current earnings. Compared to its own history, the stock is trading well below its 52-week high of $33.92, but the valuation still implies that the market expects a strong earnings recovery. Overall, the stock is fairly valued if the company can achieve the expected growth, but overvalued if growth disappoints.
NCNO is a Hold for most investors. The stock offers a 12.3% upside to the average analyst target of $23.36, but the wide range of targets ($17-$28) reflects uncertainty. The recent profitability turnaround is positive, but the decelerating revenue growth and high trailing PE of 427x pose risks. It could be a good buy for investors who believe in the long-term platform strategy and are willing to accept volatility, but it is not a compelling buy at current levels given the growth slowdown.
NCNO is more suitable for long-term investment given its growth stage and volatility. The stock has a beta of 0.663, indicating lower volatility than the market, but its recent price swings (from $13.80 to $20.81 in a year) show significant short-term risk. The company is not yet consistently profitable, and its revenue growth is decelerating, making short-term trading risky. For long-term investors, the potential for the platform to scale and achieve sustained profitability could provide substantial returns, but a minimum holding period of 3-5 years is recommended to ride out volatility and allow the growth story to play out.