Paycom
PAYC
$133.96
+6.59%
Paycom Software, Inc. is a leading provider of cloud-based human capital management (HCM) solutions, offering a unified platform for payroll, HR, compliance, and talent management primarily to mid-market clients in North America. The company has established itself as a distinct player through its single-database, all-in-one software model, which aims to reduce administrative complexity for its over 20,000 clients. The current investor narrative is dominated by a challenging turnaround story, as the company contends with significant AI-driven competitive headwinds and slowing growth, evidenced by recent news of a major investment manager making a substantial bet on a potential recovery despite these pressures.…
PAYC
Paycom
$133.96
Related headlines
PAYC 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Paycom's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $174.15 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$174.15
7 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
7
covering this stock
Price Range
$107 - $174
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage is limited, with data indicating only 7 analysts providing estimates, and no consensus price target or rating distribution is available in the provided dataset. The lack of a clear consensus target and the minimal number of analysts suggest this may be a stock with reduced institutional coverage following its downturn, which can lead to higher volatility and less efficient price discovery. The available institutional ratings from early 2026 show a mixed but generally cautious sentiment, with actions from firms like Barclays and Mizuho at 'Equal Weight' and 'Neutral,' respectively, while Guggenheim and BTIG maintain 'Buy' ratings. This split, alongside news of a major $95 million share purchase by an investment manager, indicates high uncertainty and a debate between value-oriented bulls and those concerned by the AI-related headwinds and growth deceleration. The wide dispersion in analyst views, from Neutral to Buy, signals a lack of conviction and high uncertainty around the company's near-term trajectory and competitive positioning.
PAYC Technical Analysis
The stock is in a pronounced and sustained downtrend, with a 1-year price change of -46.37% and a 6-month decline of -23.27%. As of the latest close of $124.85, the price is trading near the lower end of its 52-week range of $104.90 to $248.95, positioning it at approximately 17% of that range, which signals deep value territory but also reflects severe bearish sentiment and potential fundamental concerns. Recent momentum shows a continued struggle, with the stock down 11.56% over the past month, starkly underperforming the SPY's 0.74% gain, indicating persistent selling pressure and a lack of near-term catalysts for recovery. The 3-month performance is essentially flat at +0.02%, suggesting a tentative consolidation after the steep earlier declines, but this stabilization remains fragile. Key technical support is firmly established at the 52-week low of $104.90, while resistance sits at the 52-week high of $248.95. A breakdown below $104.90 would signal a new leg down and likely trigger further technical selling, whereas a sustained move above the recent consolidation zone is needed to suggest a base is forming. With a beta of 0.79, the stock has been less volatile than the broader market during this downtrend, but its severe underperformance (-71.36% relative strength over 1 year) highlights its unique, company-specific challenges.
Beta
0.79
0.79x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-57.3%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$105-$249
Price range past year
Annual Return
-42.7%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | PAYC Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -9.8% | -1.7% |
| 3m | +8.4% | +13.7% |
| 6m | -12.1% | +9.2% |
| 1y | -42.7% | +20.7% |
| ytd | -12.1% | +9.4% |
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PAYC Fundamental Analysis
Revenue growth has decelerated significantly, with Q4 2025 revenue of $544.3 million representing a year-over-year increase of 10.21%, a notable slowdown from the stronger growth rates seen in prior years. The quarterly trend shows volatility, with revenue dipping from $530.5 million in Q1 2025 to $483.6 million in Q2 before recovering, indicating potential seasonality or client churn pressures. Segment data reveals that recurring revenue of $970.2 million is the core driver, vastly outweighing implementation and other revenue of $13.4 million, underscoring the subscription-based model but also its sensitivity to net retention. The company remains profitable with a Q4 2025 net income of $113.8 million and a robust gross margin of 79.13%, demonstrating the inherent profitability of its software model. However, operating margins have compressed, with the Q4 operating income ratio at 28.88%, down from 34.89% in Q1 2025, reflecting increased investment or competitive pressures on sales efficiency. The net margin for the quarter was 20.91%, showing the company converts a solid portion of revenue to profit despite the growth slowdown. The balance sheet is healthy with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.09 and a current ratio of 1.09, indicating manageable leverage and adequate short-term liquidity. The company generates strong cash flow, with trailing twelve-month free cash flow of $406.1 million and an ROE of 26.19%, signaling efficient use of equity and an ability to self-fund operations and shareholder returns, which provides a financial cushion amid the growth transition.
Quarterly Revenue
$544300000.0B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+0.10%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.79%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$406100000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is PAYC Overvalued?
Given a positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E stands at 19.61x, while the forward P/E is significantly lower at 10.15x, indicating the market expects a substantial recovery in earnings, with forward EPS estimates averaging $13.155. This wide gap suggests embedded optimism for a profitability rebound or reflects depressed current earnings. Compared to the provided valuation data, the stock's trailing P/E of 19.61x and PS ratio of 4.33x cannot be directly compared to an industry average as none was supplied in the data; however, the forward P/E of ~10x appears modest for a software company if growth stabilizes. The current P/S ratio of 4.33x represents a steep discount to its own historical averages, which frequently exceeded 20x during 2021-2022. Historically, the stock's P/E ratio has fluctuated wildly, from over 120x in late 2021 to around 19.6x currently. Trading near the bottom of its own historical valuation band suggests the market is pricing in significant pessimism regarding future growth and competitive threats, presenting a potential value opportunity if the company's fundamentals stabilize.
PE
19.6x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 11x~236x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
10.9x
Enterprise Value Multiple

