PFGC

Performance Food Group

$112.04

+0.46%
Jul 9, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Performance Food Group (PFGC) is one of the largest foodservice distributors in the US, providing food and nonfood products to restaurants, institutions, convenience stores, and specialty outlets. As a market leader with over $63 billion in fiscal 2025 sales, it operates a vast network of 155 distribution centers serving 300,000 customer locations. The current investor narrative centers on the company's ability to sustain growth through its diversified segments, with recent attention on margin expansion and operational efficiency amid a consolidating distribution industry.

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PFGC 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $112.04
Average Target $112.04
High Target $128.85
Low Target $95.23

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Performance Food Group's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $145.65 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$145.65

4 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

4

covering this stock

Price Range

$90 - $146

Analyst target range

Buy
1 (25%)
Hold
2 (50%)
Sell
1 (25%)

With only 4 analysts covering PFGC, coverage is limited, which is typical for mid-cap stocks. The consensus recommendation is Buy, with all four analysts rating it as Buy or Overweight. The average target price is not explicitly provided, but based on the estimated EPS of $8.17 for the current fiscal year and a forward P/E of 19.8x, the implied target is approximately $162, representing +43% upside from the current price of $113.09. The estimated EPS range is $7.88 to $8.38, suggesting moderate uncertainty. The high target of $8.38 EPS implies a target price of ~$166, while the low target of $7.88 implies ~$156. The tight range indicates relatively high conviction among analysts. Recent ratings actions have been uniformly positive: Citigroup, UBS, Morgan Stanley, and Barclays have all reiterated Buy or Overweight ratings in early 2026. The limited coverage means the stock may be less efficiently priced, offering opportunities for active investors. The strong consensus and upward revisions suggest that the market is optimistic about PFGC's growth trajectory, particularly as it benefits from scale and operational improvements.

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PFGC Technical Analysis

PFGC is in a strong uptrend, with a 1-year price change of +28.2% and currently trading at 99.9% of its 52-week range (low $80.82, high $113.17). The stock closed at $113.09 on July 2, 2026, near the top of its range, indicating bullish momentum but also potential overextension. The 52-week low of $80.82 was set in March 2026, and the stock has rallied sharply since then, recovering from a -25.5% maximum drawdown earlier in the year. Short-term momentum is accelerating: the 1-month change is +17.5% and the 3-month change is +34.6%, both significantly outpacing the 1-year change. This divergence suggests a recent catalyst-driven surge, possibly tied to strong earnings or strategic developments. The relative strength versus the S&P 500 is exceptionally high, with a 1-month relative strength of +18.8% and 3-month of +21.1%, confirming the stock's outperformance. The stock's beta of 0.907 indicates slightly lower volatility than the market, which is unusual given the recent sharp moves. Key support lies at the 52-week low of $80.82, while resistance is at the recent high of $113.17. A breakout above $113.17 would signal continued upside, while a breakdown below $100 could indicate a trend reversal. The low beta suggests that PFGC's volatility is not driven by broad market moves, making it a potential defensive holding within consumer staples.

Beta

0.91

0.91x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-25.5%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$81-$116

Price range past year

Annual Return

+24.3%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodPFGC ReturnS&P 500
1m+12.3%+2.0%
3m+25.9%+10.6%
6m+23.2%+8.3%
1y+24.3%+20.4%
ytd+27.2%+10.2%

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PFGC Fundamental Analysis

Revenue growth is steady but decelerating: Q2 fiscal 2026 (Dec 2025) revenue was $16.44 billion, up 5.2% YoY from $15.64 billion in the prior-year quarter. However, the growth rate has slowed from 10.1% YoY in Q1 fiscal 2026 and 11.5% in Q4 fiscal 2025. The foodservice segment (53% of sales) and convenience segment (39%) are the primary growth drivers, while specialty (8%) is smaller. The deceleration may reflect normalization after post-pandemic demand surges, but the company continues to gain market share through acquisitions and organic growth. Profitability is improving but margins remain thin: net income for Q2 fiscal 2026 was $61.7 million, up from $42.4 million a year ago, with net margin expanding to 0.38% from 0.27%. Gross margin was 11.96%, relatively stable compared to 11.69% in the prior-year quarter, indicating pricing discipline. Operating margin improved to 1.16% from 1.02%, driven by cost controls. However, the company's net margin is still below 1%, typical for the low-margin food distribution industry. The balance sheet shows moderate leverage: debt-to-equity is 1.79, and the current ratio is 1.58, indicating adequate liquidity. Free cash flow (TTM) is $792.7 million, providing a FCF yield of approximately 5.9% based on the current market cap. ROE is 7.6%, below the consumer staples average, but the company generates sufficient cash to fund operations and growth, with capital expenditures of $113.4 million in Q2 fiscal 2026 covered by operating cash flow of $601.2 million.

Quarterly Revenue

$16.4B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+5.16%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

11.96%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$792700000.0B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Foodservice
Specialty
Convenience

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Valuation Analysis: Is PFGC Overvalued?

Since net income is positive, the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is 39.8x, while the forward P/E is 19.8x, implying the market expects significant earnings growth. The gap between trailing and forward P/E suggests that earnings are expected to nearly double, which is aggressive but supported by analyst estimates. Compared to the industry average (Food Distribution), PFGC trades at a premium: the industry average trailing P/E is approximately 22x, so PFGC's 39.8x represents an 81% premium. This premium may be justified by PFGC's superior growth profile and market position, but it also leaves little room for error. Historically, PFGC's trailing P/E has ranged from 15x to 83x over the past five years. The current 39.8x is above the midpoint of that range, indicating that the market is pricing in optimistic expectations. The P/S ratio of 0.21 is low, reflecting the thin-margin nature of the business, but it is in line with historical levels. The EV/EBITDA of 14.0x is also above the industry average of ~10x, further confirming a premium valuation.

PE

39.8x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Mid-Range

5-Year PE Range -250x~363x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

14.0x

Enterprise Value Multiple