Qorvo
QRVO
$117.18
-1.95%
Qorvo, Inc. is a semiconductor company formed from the 2015 merger of RF Micro Devices and TriQuint Semiconductor, specializing in radio frequency filters, power amplifiers, and front-end modules used in smartphones, wireless base stations, cable TV and networking equipment, and infrastructure and military applications. The company occupies a critical but concentrated position in the RF front-end supply chain, with roughly 63% of segment revenue (approximately $512 million) coming from its Advanced Cellular Group (ACG), making it highly levered to flagship smartphone build cycles and a small number of large OEM customers. The dominant investor narrative right now is the pending acquisition by Skyworks Solutions, evidenced by Skyworks commencing exchange offers and consent solicitations for Qorvo's senior notes due 2029 and 2031 in May 2026, which has effectively converted QRVO into a merger-arbitrage vehicle whose price is increasingly tethered to deal-close probability rather than standalone fundamentals. This deal dynamic explains the stock's powerful 30% one-year and 50% six-month gains despite a still-challenged standalone operating picture, with the most recent quarter showing revenue declining 7% year over year and net margin compressing to just 3.7%.…
QRVO
Qorvo
$117.18
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy QRVO Today?
The synthesized recommendation is Hold. The core thesis is that Qorvo is currently a merger-arbitrage vehicle whose price is driven by Skyworks deal-close probability rather than standalone fundamentals, and the risk/reward is balanced with a slight negative skew given the 23% downside to the average analyst target of $90.17. The consensus recommendation is hold (mean 3.0) with 12 analysts covering, and the average target implies significant downside from the current $117.18 price.
Supporting evidence for a Hold includes: 1) the stock trades at 1.95x PS and 10.26x EV/EBITDA, which is not expensive on historical PS terms (previously 7-12x) but rich relative to negative 7.0% revenue growth; 2) free cash flow remains robust at $679.6 million trailing, with $255.0 million generated in the latest quarter; 3) the balance sheet is strong with $1.22 billion cash and 0.46 debt-to-equity; and 4) the pending merger provides a potential catalyst, but the average analyst target of $90.17 implies 23% downside, and even the high target of $105.00 is below the market price. The stock's 30.2% one-year gain vastly exceeds SPY's 15.0%, suggesting much of the deal premium is already priced in.
The biggest risks that could invalidate the Hold rating are: 1) a deal break, which could send the stock down 20-35% toward standalone fair value; 2) continued revenue decline and margin compression, with net margin already at 3.7%; and 3) valuation compression if the market re-rates the stock on fundamentals. The rating would upgrade to Buy if the stock pulls back to the $90-$95 range (near analyst average target) while deal momentum remains intact, or downgrade to Sell if the deal appears likely to fail or if revenue growth decelerates further below -10%. On a standalone basis, the stock appears overvalued; on a deal-completion basis, it may be fairly valued to slightly undervalued depending on the final deal price.
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QRVO 12-Month Price Forecast
Qorvo is currently a merger-arbitrage play, with the stock price driven by Skyworks deal-close probability rather than standalone fundamentals. The 30.2% one-year gain and 49.9% six-month rally have pushed the stock near its 52-week high, but analyst targets average $90.17, implying significant downside if the deal fails. The standalone business is deteriorating, with revenue down 7.0% and net margin at 3.7%, though free cash flow and the balance sheet remain strong. The risk/reward is balanced but skewed negative given the binary nature of the merger. I would upgrade to bullish if the deal is confirmed at a premium above $120, and downgrade to bearish if regulatory hurdles emerge or the deal breaks, which could send the stock below $85.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Qorvo's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $90.17 and implied upside of -23.1% versus the current price.
Average Target
$90.17
0 analysts
Implied Upside
-23.1%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$66 - $105
Analyst target range
Coverage is moderate with 12 analysts, and the consensus recommendation is a hold (recommendation mean of 3.0), reflecting the market's uncertainty around the pending merger rather than conviction in the standalone story. The average target price of $90.17 implies roughly 23% downside from the current $117.18 price, a striking disconnect that strongly suggests the analyst targets predate or exclude the Skyworks deal premium embedded in the market price. The consensus leans neutral-to-cautious, and the gap between the $90.17 average target and the $117.18 market price is the single most important signal in this dataset: either the market is pricing a deal that analysts have not incorporated, or the stock is significantly overextended relative to fundamental fair value. The target range is wide, from a low of $66.00 to a high of $105.00, and notably even the high target sits below the current market price, meaning no covering analyst's published target justifies the current valuation on standalone fundamentals. The high target of $105.00 would still imply about 10% downside and likely assumes successful execution on HPA and CSG diversification plus margin recovery, while the low target of $66.00 implies roughly 44% downside and prices in continued ACG share loss, margin compression, and a deal break. The wide $39 spread signals high uncertainty, and the institutional ratings pattern is mixed-to-negative: Barclays upgraded to Overweight in April 2026, but Mizuho downgraded to Underperform and Wolfe Research cut to Peer Perform in the same month, while Citigroup, UBS, and JP Morgan all maintained Neutral ratings in May 2026. The recent downgrade skew, combined with the fact that the entire analyst target range sits below the market price, indicates that the current stock price is being driven by merger-arbitrage dynamics rather than analyst-validated fundamentals, and investors should treat the consensus target as a standalone valuation anchor rather than a near-term price forecast.
Bulls vs Bears: QRVO Investment Factors
The bull case rests almost entirely on the pending Skyworks acquisition, which has driven a 49.9% six-month rally and pushed the stock to within 3.1% of its 52-week high. Standalone fundamentals are deteriorating: revenue declined 7.0% year over year, net margin compressed to 3.7%, and analyst targets average $90.17, implying 23% downside. The bear case is supported by the fact that no covering analyst's target justifies the current price, and the entire target range ($66-$105) sits below the market. The single most important tension is deal-close probability: if the merger completes, the stock likely converges toward the deal price; if it breaks, the stock could fall 20-35% toward standalone fair value. Currently, the bear evidence on fundamentals is stronger, but the bull case on deal momentum has been winning in the market.
Bullish
- Merger Arbitrage Drives Price: Skyworks commenced exchange offers and consent solicitations for Qorvo's senior notes due 2029 and 2031 in May 2026, a clear signal the acquisition is progressing. The stock has rallied 49.9% over six months and 30.2% over one year, far outpacing SPY's 17.4% and 15.0% gains, as the market prices rising deal-close probability.
- Strong Balance Sheet and Cash Flow: Qorvo holds $1.22 billion in cash, a current ratio of 3.24, and debt-to-equity of just 0.46. Trailing free cash flow is $679.6 million, with the latest quarter generating $255.0 million in FCF on $276.3 million operating cash flow against only $21.2 million capex.
- Attractive Valuation Multiples: The stock trades at 1.95x price-to-sales and 10.26x EV/EBITDA, a discount to high-multiple semiconductor peers. Price-to-book of 2.14x is near the low end of its historical 1.88x-4.72x band, suggesting limited downside on asset value.
- Gross Margin Stability: Gross margin held at 48.87% in the latest quarter, up from 46.75% and 46.96% in the prior two periods. This resilience suggests pricing power and cost control even as revenue declined 7.0% year over year.
Bearish
- Analyst Targets Imply Major Downside: The average analyst target of $90.17 implies 23% downside from the current $117.18 price, and even the high target of $105.00 sits below the market price. This disconnect suggests the market is pricing a deal premium not reflected in standalone fundamentals.
- Deteriorating Standalone Financials: Revenue fell 7.0% year over year to $808.3 million in the March 2026 quarter, down from $993.0 million and $1,058.5 million in the prior two quarters. Net income collapsed to $29.7 million (3.7% margin) from $164.1 million (16.5% margin) sequentially.
- Extreme Customer and Segment Concentration: The Advanced Cellular Group contributed $512.3 million, or 63% of total revenue, making Qorvo highly dependent on a few large smartphone OEMs. Any share loss or build-cycle weakness in this segment would disproportionately impact results.
- Thin Interest Coverage and Operating Deleverage: Interest coverage is just 1.77x, and operating income fell to $31.5 million (3.9% margin) from $192.1 million (19.4%) sequentially. R&D consumes 21.1% of revenue ($170.4 million), leaving little cushion if revenue declines further.
QRVO Technical Analysis
QRVO is in a powerful, sustained uptrend, with the current price of $117.18 sitting at roughly 92% of its 52-week range (52-week low of $74.92, 52-week high of $120.76) and up 30.16% over the past year versus a 15.01% gain for SPY. That positioning near the top of the annual range signals strong momentum but also limited near-term headroom, and the stock's 23.76% max drawdown over the period shows this has not been a smooth ride. The 1-year relative strength of +15.15 percentage points versus the index confirms genuine outperformance rather than mere beta-driven drift, though the proximity to the 52-week high means the risk/reward for fresh momentum entries is asymmetric unless a clean breakout occurs. Recent momentum has accelerated sharply: the stock is up 21.04% in the past month and 19.06% over three months, with the 1-month relative strength of +22.00 percentage points versus SPY's -0.96% far outpacing the longer-term trend. This acceleration is a classic merger-arbitrage signature, where the shares converge toward the deal-implied value as closing certainty rises, and the 49.92% six-month gain versus SPY's 17.44% underscores how violently sentiment has shifted from the mid-year trough near $82 in July. The divergence between the explosive 1-month move and the more modest 1-year gain suggests the market is repricing deal probability rather than re-underwriting standalone growth, and the elevated short ratio of 4.69 days-to-cover indicates meaningful short interest that could fuel further squeezes on positive deal headlines. Key technical levels are well defined: support sits at the 52-week low of $74.92, with intermediate support around the July consolidation zone near $82-$85, while resistance is the 52-week high of $120.76, just 3.1% above the current $117.18 price. A decisive breakout above $120.76 would signal the market is pricing near-certain deal completion, whereas a breakdown below $100 would suggest deal risk is being repriced and could trigger a sharp unwind given the stock's beta of 1.455, meaning it is roughly 46% more volatile than the market and demands smaller position sizes and wider stops for risk management.
Beta
1.46
1.46x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-23.8%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$75-$121
Price range past year
Annual Return
+30.2%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | QRVO Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +21.0% | -0.5% |
| 3m | +19.1% | +2.3% |
| 6m | +49.9% | +16.6% |
| 1y | +30.2% | +14.8% |
| ytd | +35.8% | +11.7% |
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QRVO Fundamental Analysis
Qorvo's revenue trajectory is deteriorating on a standalone basis, with the most recent quarter (ending 2026-03-28) delivering $808.28 million in revenue, down 7.04% year over year, and well below the $992.96 million posted in the December 2025 quarter and the $1,058.50 million in the September 2025 quarter. The sequential decline reflects both seasonal smartphone post-holiday weakness and structural share loss, and the segment mix shows heavy concentration risk: ACG contributed $512.25 million (roughly 63% of the $808.28 million total), while HPA added $202.75 million and CSG only $93.28 million. The multi-quarter trend is one of decelerating top-line momentum, which explains why the investment case has migrated almost entirely to the Skyworks merger rather than organic growth, and any deal break would force the market to re-anchor on these weakening standalone fundamentals. Profitability has compressed meaningfully: net income in the latest quarter was just $29.73 million (a 3.68% net margin) versus $164.06 million (16.52% margin) in the December 2025 quarter and $119.60 million (11.30% margin) in the September 2025 quarter, while gross margin held up better at 48.87% in the latest quarter against 46.75% and 46.96% in the prior two periods. The gap between stable gross margins and collapsing net margins points to operating deleverage, with operating income falling to $31.51 million (3.90% operating margin) from $192.14 million (19.35%) in the December quarter, and R&D still consuming $170.39 million, or 21.1% of revenue, which is heavy for a company of this scale. The trailing net margin of 9.22% and operating margin of 11.18% are well below what a mature RF semiconductor leader should earn, and the interest coverage ratio of just 1.77x in the latest quarter highlights how thin the cushion has become. The balance sheet remains the strongest part of the story: the current ratio is a healthy 3.24, debt-to-equity is a conservative 0.46, and cash at the end of the March 2026 quarter stood at $1.22 billion. Free cash flow remains robust at $679.56 million on a trailing basis, with the latest quarter generating $255.03 million in FCF on $276.26 million of operating cash flow against just $21.24 million of capex, and the company returned $400.05 million via buybacks in the quarter. ROE of 10.14% and ROA of 6.71% are modest but positive, and the cash flow coverage ratio of 0.178 and capital expenditure coverage ratio of 13.01x indicate the company can fund itself internally, though the pending merger adds integration and refinancing risk that partially offsets this standalone financial strength.
Quarterly Revenue
$808277000.0B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
-7.0%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
48.9%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$679561000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is QRVO Overvalued?
Because Qorvo is profitable (trailing net income is positive, with EPS of $0.047 on a trailing basis and $0.32 in the latest quarter), the PE ratio is the appropriate primary metric, and the trailing PE of 21.13x against a forward PE of 14.82x implies the market expects meaningful earnings growth ahead. That 30% compression from trailing to forward multiple is notable, but it must be interpreted cautiously: the forward estimate of $9.03 in average EPS appears inflated relative to the $0.32 quarterly run-rate, suggesting either a data artifact or a merger-related adjustment, and the PEG ratio of just 0.04 is almost certainly distorted by a near-zero trailing EPS base. The more reliable read is the price-to-sales ratio of 1.95x and EV/EBITDA of 10.26x, which frame Qorvo as a reasonably valued but not cheap semiconductor asset. Relative to the broader semiconductor sector, Qorvo's 1.95x PS and 10.26x EV/EBITDA sit at a discount to the high-multiple growth names but at a premium to mature analog peers, and the 2.14x price-to-book is modest. The critical caveat is that these multiples are being distorted by merger-arbitrage pricing: the stock has rallied 30% in a year while revenue declined 7% and net income fell 82% sequentially, meaning the multiple expansion is deal-driven rather than fundamentals-driven. On a standalone basis, a 21x trailing PE for a company with negative revenue growth and 9.22% net margins would be difficult to justify, so the premium embedded in the current price is effectively a bet on deal completion. Historically, Qorvo's valuation has swung violently: the PE ratio was 60.43x in the March 2026 quarter, 12.16x in December 2025, 18.03x in September 2025, and 74.87x in June 2025, while the PS ratio ranged from 7.35x to 12.49x across 2024-2025 periods before compressing to the current 1.95x. That PS compression from double digits to under 2x reflects both the revenue decline and the market's re-rating of the standalone business, and the current 2.14x PB is near the low end of its historical 1.88x-4.72x band. In short, the stock is cheap on historical PS and PB terms but expensive relative to its deteriorating fundamentals, a tension that only resolves with clarity on the Skyworks transaction.
PE
21.1x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 11x~75x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
10.3x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Qorvo faces significant financial and operational risks. Revenue declined 7.0% year over year to $808.3 million in the March 2026 quarter, with net income collapsing to $29.7 million (3.7% margin) from $164.1 million (16.5% margin) sequentially. The Advanced Cellular Group accounts for 63% of revenue ($512.3 million), creating extreme customer concentration risk. Interest coverage is thin at 1.77x, and R&D spending of $170.4 million (21.1% of revenue) leaves little flexibility if revenue continues to fall. While the balance sheet is strong with $1.22 billion in cash and a current ratio of 3.24, the operating trend is clearly negative.
Market and competitive risks are elevated. The stock trades at 21.1x trailing PE and 1.95x PS, which is expensive relative to its deteriorating fundamentals but cheap versus historical PS multiples that ranged from 7.35x to 12.49x in 2024-2025. The beta of 1.455 means the stock is 46% more volatile than the market, amplifying downside in a selloff. The pending Skyworks acquisition introduces binary event risk: if the deal breaks, the stock could quickly re-rate to standalone valuation. Recent analyst actions are mixed-to-negative, with Mizuho downgrading to Underperform and Wolfe Research cutting to Peer Perform in April 2026, while Barclays upgraded to Overweight. The wide target range ($66-$105) signals high uncertainty.
The worst-case scenario is a deal break combined with continued operational deterioration. If the Skyworks acquisition fails, the stock could fall toward the 52-week low of $74.92, representing a 36% decline from the current $117.18. The analyst low target of $66.00 implies 44% downside. A deal break would likely trigger a sharp unwind given the stock's 23.76% max drawdown over the past year and elevated short interest (4.69 days-to-cover). In this scenario, investors could lose 35-45% from current levels as the market re-anchors on standalone fundamentals showing negative revenue growth and compressed margins.
FAQ
The key risks of holding QRVO are ranked by severity: 1) Deal break risk: if the Skyworks acquisition fails, the stock could fall 28-44% toward the $66-$85 range, as the market re-anchors on standalone fundamentals. 2) Financial risk: revenue declined 7.0% year over year, net margin is just 3.7%, and interest coverage is thin at 1.77x, leaving little cushion if conditions worsen. 3) Concentration risk: 63% of revenue comes from the Advanced Cellular Group, making Qorvo highly dependent on a few large smartphone OEMs. 4) Valuation risk: the stock trades at 21.1x trailing PE despite negative growth, and analyst targets average $90.17, implying significant downside. Additionally, the beta of 1.455 means the stock is 46% more volatile than the market, amplifying losses in a downturn.
The QRVO stock forecast is highly dependent on the Skyworks acquisition. The base case (50% probability) sees the stock trading in a $95-$110 range as the deal progresses with minor delays, assuming revenue declines moderate and gross margin remains stable. The bull case (30% probability) targets $120-$135 if the deal closes at a premium and regulatory approvals are smooth. The bear case (20% probability) targets $66-$85 if the deal fails, forcing the market to re-anchor on standalone fundamentals. The most likely scenario is the base case, with the key assumption that the deal closes within 12 months but with some conditions. However, the average analyst target of $90.17 suggests that even the base case may be optimistic relative to standalone value. Investors should watch for regulatory news and earnings reports for clarity.
QRVO appears overvalued on standalone fundamentals but fairly valued as a merger-arbitrage play. The trailing PE is 21.1x, forward PE is 14.8x, and PS is 1.95x, which is cheap relative to its historical PS range of 7-12x but expensive given negative revenue growth and a 9.2% net margin. The EV/EBITDA of 10.26x is reasonable for a semiconductor company, but the market is pricing in a deal premium that is not reflected in analyst targets. The average target of $90.17 implies 23% downside, suggesting the stock is overvalued relative to standalone fair value. The market is paying a premium for the likelihood of the Skyworks acquisition, and if the deal fails, the stock could re-rate significantly lower. Thus, on a fundamental basis, it is overvalued; on a deal basis, it may be fairly valued depending on the final deal price.
QRVO is a good buy only for investors with a high risk tolerance who are specifically betting on the Skyworks acquisition closing. The stock trades at $117.18, with the average analyst target of $90.17 implying 23% downside, and even the high target of $105.00 is below the current price. The standalone business is weak, with revenue down 7.0% year over year and net margin at 3.7%. However, the pending merger provides a potential catalyst, and the stock has strong momentum, up 49.9% over six months. If the deal closes at a premium, the stock could rise further, but if it breaks, downside could be 28-44% to the $66-$85 range. Therefore, it is not a good buy for most investors, but could be a speculative arbitrage play for those who understand the binary risk.
QRVO is more suitable for short-term, event-driven investment rather than long-term holding. The stock's fate is tied to the pending Skyworks acquisition, which creates binary outcomes within the next 12 months. The beta of 1.455 indicates high volatility, and the lack of a dividend (payout ratio 0%) means no income for long-term holders. The standalone business is deteriorating, with revenue down 7.0% and net margin at 3.7%, so a long-term investment would rely on a successful merger or a turnaround that is not currently evident. For short-term traders, the merger arbitrage spread and short squeeze potential (short ratio 4.69) offer opportunities. A suggested minimum holding period for a speculative position would be until the deal closes or breaks, likely within 6-12 months. Long-term investors should wait for clarity on the deal or a significant pullback to the $80-$90 range before considering entry.