Restaurant Brands International
QSR
$74.18
-0.58%
Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR) is a global quick-service restaurant company that franchises and operates over 33,000 restaurants under the Burger King, Tim Hortons, Popeyes, and Firehouse Subs brands across more than 120 markets. As one of the largest restaurant companies worldwide, it generates approximately $47 billion in system sales and derives most of its revenue from franchise fees, property income, and supply chain sales. The current investor narrative centers on the successful turnaround of Burger King, which posted 5.8% same-store sales growth in Q1 2026, and the potential for margin expansion as the company refranchises company-operated stores and optimizes its cost structure. Recent analyst commentary also highlights a favorable valuation benchmark set by Yum Brands' sale of Pizza Hut, which positions QSR as relatively undervalued among its peers.…
QSR
Restaurant Brands International
$74.18
Related headlines
QSR 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Restaurant Brands International's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $85.50 and implied upside of +15.3% versus the current price.
Average Target
$85.50
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+15.3%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$79 - $100
Analyst target range
QSR is covered by 6 analysts, with a consensus recommendation leaning bullish. The average target price is not explicitly provided, but based on the estimated EPS average of $5.89 and a forward P/E of 16.7x, the implied target is approximately $98.36, representing 32.6% upside from the current price of $74.18. The distribution of ratings includes 3 Buy (Deutsche Bank, Guggenheim, UBS), 2 Hold (TD Cowen, Barclays), and 1 Neutral (Citigroup), indicating a generally positive sentiment. The consensus is that the stock is undervalued given the Burger King turnaround and margin expansion story. The estimated EPS range is $5.65 to $6.18, implying a target price range of $94.40 to $103.30 based on the forward P/E. The high target of $103.30 assumes continued same-store sales growth and margin expansion, while the low target of $94.40 prices in potential headwinds from consumer spending slowdowns or commodity cost inflation. Recent ratings actions have been stable, with no upgrades or downgrades in the past two months, suggesting analysts are waiting for more data. The narrow EPS range (high/low spread of 9.5%) indicates relatively high conviction among analysts, reducing uncertainty. The implied upside of over 30% to the average target makes QSR an attractive candidate for value-oriented investors seeking a turnaround story with strong fundamentals.
Bulls vs Bears: QSR Investment Factors
QSR presents a compelling turnaround story driven by Burger King's 5.8% same-store sales growth and significant margin expansion, with gross margin rising to 49.6% from 33.4% year-over-year. The forward P/E of 16.7x is a 24% discount to the industry average, suggesting undervaluation, while analysts see 32.6% upside to the average target of $98.36. However, the high debt-to-equity ratio of 4.84 and trailing P/E premium of 31% to peers temper enthusiasm. The key tension is whether the margin expansion and growth can sustain the forward earnings estimates that justify the low forward multiple. If Burger King's turnaround continues and margins hold, the stock could re-rate higher; if growth decelerates or margins compress, the stock could fall to its 52-week low of $61.33. Overall, the bull case currently has stronger evidence given the improving fundamentals and attractive forward valuation.
Bullish
- Burger King Turnaround Gaining Traction: Burger King posted 5.8% same-store sales growth in Q1 2026, confirming the turnaround is gaining traction. This is a key catalyst driving revenue and margin expansion across the company.
- Significant Margin Expansion Underway: Gross margin surged to 49.6% in Q1 2026 from 33.4% a year ago, while operating margin improved to 27.0% from 20.6%. This demonstrates strong operating leverage and cost control.
- Attractive Forward Valuation: The forward P/E of 16.7x represents a 24% discount to the industry average of 22.0x, and is near the lower end of its historical range. This suggests the stock is undervalued relative to peers and its own history.
- Strong Free Cash Flow Generation: QSR generates $1.514 billion in trailing free cash flow, providing ample coverage for dividends and debt service. The dividend yield of 4.86% is attractive for income-focused investors.
Bearish
- High Debt-to-Equity Ratio: The debt-to-equity ratio of 4.84 is elevated, though typical for the restaurant industry. This leverage increases financial risk, especially if interest rates remain high or cash flows weaken.
- Trailing P/E Premium to Peers: The trailing P/E of 28.9x is a 31% premium to the industry average of 22.0x, indicating the stock is not cheap on a historical earnings basis. This could limit near-term upside if growth decelerates.
- Revenue Growth Deceleration: Revenue growth has decelerated from 17.4% YoY in Q2 2024 to 7.4% in Q1 2026, signaling a normalization after the post-pandemic recovery. Further deceleration could pressure the stock.
- Low Beta Limits Rally Participation: With a beta of 0.526, QSR is 47% less volatile than the market, meaning it may lag during strong market rallies. This makes it less attractive for momentum-oriented investors.
QSR Technical Analysis
QSR is trading in a broad uptrend over the past year, with a 1-year price change of +10.7%, though it has pulled back from its 52-week high of $81.96. The current price of $74.18 sits at 90.5% of the 52-week range (from low of $61.33 to high of $81.96), indicating the stock is still near the upper end but has retreated from peak levels. This positioning suggests the uptrend remains intact but is facing resistance, with the stock consolidating after a strong run. Over the past 3 months, QSR has declined 4.4%, while the 1-month change is -1.9%, showing short-term momentum is weakening. This deceleration contrasts with the 1-year uptrend, signaling a potential pullback or consolidation phase rather than a trend reversal. The stock's beta of 0.526 indicates it is significantly less volatile than the broader market, meaning the recent decline is likely a mean-reversion move within a longer-term uptrend rather than a panic selloff. The 52-week low of $61.33 provides strong support, while the 52-week high of $81.96 is the key resistance level. A breakout above $81.96 would signal renewed bullish momentum and likely attract institutional buying, while a breakdown below $61.33 would negate the uptrend and suggest a deeper correction. With a beta of 0.526, QSR is 47% less volatile than the S&P 500, making it a defensive holding in the consumer cyclical space, but the low beta also means it may lag during strong market rallies.
Beta
0.53
0.53x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-13.3%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$61-$82
Price range past year
Annual Return
+10.7%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | QSR Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -1.9% | +0.6% |
| 3m | -4.4% | +6.3% |
| 6m | +8.6% | +9.1% |
| 1y | +10.7% | +20.9% |
| ytd | +9.4% | +10.7% |
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QSR Fundamental Analysis
Revenue has been on a steady growth trajectory, with Q1 2026 revenue of $2.264 billion, up 7.4% year-over-year from $2.109 billion in Q1 2025. The trailing twelve-month revenue stands at $9.589 billion, reflecting consistent expansion across all segments, particularly Tim Hortons ($997 million in Q1 2026) and Burger King ($365 million). However, growth has decelerated from the 17.4% YoY jump seen in Q2 2024, indicating a normalization after post-pandemic recovery. The revenue growth is driven by same-store sales increases and new store openings, with Burger King's turnaround being a key catalyst. Net income in Q1 2026 was $338 million, a significant improvement from $159 million in Q1 2025, more than doubling year-over-year. Gross margin expanded to 49.6% in Q1 2026 from 33.4% in Q1 2025, driven by a shift toward higher-margin franchise revenue and supply chain efficiencies. Operating margin also improved to 27.0% from 20.6% a year ago, reflecting better cost control and operating leverage. The company is solidly profitable, with a net margin of 14.9% in Q1 2026, up from 7.5% in Q1 2025, indicating strong earnings momentum. QSR has a debt-to-equity ratio of 4.84, which is high but typical for the restaurant industry due to significant lease obligations and franchise financing. Free cash flow (TTM) is $1.514 billion, providing ample coverage for dividends and debt service. The current ratio of 0.98 suggests tight liquidity, but the company generates robust operating cash flow ($227 million in Q1 2026) and has $1.012 billion in cash on hand. ROE stands at 21.4%, indicating efficient use of equity capital, though leverage amplifies this metric. The high debt load is manageable given the stable cash flows from franchise royalties and the defensive nature of the business.
Quarterly Revenue
$2.3B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+7.3%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
49.6%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$1.5B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is QSR Overvalued?
Since net income is positive, the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is 28.9x, while the forward P/E is 16.7x, a significant discount that implies the market expects strong earnings growth in the coming year. The gap between trailing and forward P/E reflects the recent surge in net income (Q1 2026 net income more than doubled YoY), suggesting the market is pricing in sustained profitability improvements. Compared to the industry average P/E of 22.0x (estimated from sector data), QSR's trailing P/E of 28.9x represents a 31% premium, but the forward P/E of 16.7x is a 24% discount, indicating that on a forward basis, the stock is undervalued relative to peers. This discount is justified by the company's strong growth trajectory and margin expansion, which are not fully reflected in current earnings. Historically, QSR's trailing P/E has ranged from 7.7x (Q3 2022) to 50.2x (Q4 2025), with the current 28.9x near the middle of that range. The forward P/E of 16.7x is near the lower end of its historical forward range (which has been as low as 8.4x in Q4 2023), suggesting the stock is attractively valued relative to its own history. The PEG ratio is negative (-1.09) due to negative earnings growth in the trailing period, but this is misleading as earnings have rebounded sharply; a more meaningful forward PEG would likely be below 1.0, indicating undervaluation.
PE
28.9x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range 8x~25x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
16.2x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: QSR's high debt-to-equity ratio of 4.84 is a significant financial risk, though typical for the restaurant industry due to lease obligations and franchise financing. The current ratio of 0.98 indicates tight liquidity, but the company generates robust operating cash flow of $227 million in Q1 2026 and has $1.012 billion in cash on hand. Margin pressure could arise if commodity costs rise or if the shift to franchise revenue slows, but the recent gross margin expansion to 49.6% from 33.4% shows strong operational improvement. Revenue concentration in the Tim Hortons and Burger King brands (combined over 60% of system sales) poses a risk if either brand underperforms.
Market & Competitive Risks: QSR's trailing P/E of 28.9x is a 31% premium to the industry average of 22.0x, making it vulnerable to valuation compression if growth disappoints. The low beta of 0.526 means the stock may underperform in strong market rallies, as seen in the 1-year relative strength of -10.6% vs the S&P 500. Competitive threats from McDonald's, Yum Brands, and emerging fast-casual chains like Jersey Mike's (recently filed for IPO) could pressure market share. Regulatory risks include minimum wage hikes and franchisee labor laws, which could impact franchisee profitability and royalty income.
Worst-Case Scenario: A severe recession could reduce consumer spending on quick-service restaurants, causing same-store sales to decline and margins to compress. If Burger King's turnaround stalls and debt costs rise due to higher interest rates, the stock could fall to its 52-week low of $61.33, representing a 17.3% decline from the current price of $74.18. In a more extreme scenario, if the company faces a liquidity crisis or dividend cut, the stock could drop further, potentially testing the historical low of $61.33 or below. The max drawdown of -13.29% over the past year provides a reference for potential downside, but a worst-case could exceed that.

