RVMD

Revolution Medicines, Inc. Common Stock

$190.46

+0.25%
Jul 7, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Revolution Medicines is a clinical-stage precision oncology company developing novel targeted therapies for RAS-addicted cancers, leveraging structure-based drug discovery to create small molecules that bind directly to RAS variants. The company is a pioneer in the RAS inhibitor space, with a proprietary platform that enables targeting of previously undruggable RAS mutations, positioning it as a potential leader in a high-value oncology niche. The current investor narrative is driven by the April 2026 Phase 3 pancreatic cancer trial results showing daraxonrasib doubled survival versus chemotherapy, which has sparked a massive rally and a subsequent $2.2 billion capital raise to fund pipeline expansion, though dilution concerns and the pre-revenue stage keep the stock in the high-risk/high-reward category.

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RVMD 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $190.46
Average Target $190.46
High Target $219.029
Low Target $161.891

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Revolution Medicines, Inc. Common Stock's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $247.60 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$247.60

7 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

7

covering this stock

Price Range

$152 - $248

Analyst target range

Buy
2 (29%)
Hold
3 (43%)
Sell
2 (29%)

Revolution Medicines is covered by 7 analysts, with a consensus leaning bullish: all recent ratings are Overweight, Buy, or Outperform, with no holds or sells. The average estimated EPS for the next fiscal year is $10.39, with a low of $1.24 and high of $33.24, implying a wide range of expectations. The average revenue estimate is $5.67 billion, with a low of $1.83 billion and high of $15.27 billion, reflecting high uncertainty about the commercial launch of daraxonrasib. Based on the current price of $189.24, the average target price is not directly provided, but the EPS estimates suggest significant upside if the high end is achieved. The consensus is strongly bullish, driven by the Phase 3 pancreatic cancer data, but the wide range of estimates (low EPS of $1.24 vs. high of $33.24) indicates high uncertainty about the pace of revenue ramp and market penetration. The high target assumes rapid adoption and multiple expansion, while the low target prices in slower uptake or competitive pressure. The recent analyst actions show no downgrades, with firms like Wells Fargo, Needham, and JP Morgan maintaining positive ratings after the capital raise, signaling confidence in the pipeline. However, the wide spread in estimates suggests that conviction is not uniform, and the stock's valuation is highly sensitive to clinical and regulatory milestones.

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RVMD Technical Analysis

Revolution Medicines is in a powerful sustained uptrend, with the stock surging 408.8% over the past year and currently trading at 98.0% of its 52-week range (close to the $193.10 high). The price sits at $189.24, just 2.0% below the 52-week high, indicating strong momentum and bullish sentiment, though near-term overextension is a risk. The 1-year relative strength versus SPY is +389.7%, confirming exceptional outperformance driven by clinical catalysts. Short-term momentum is accelerating sharply: the 1-month price change is +25.1% and the 3-month change is +90.9%, far outpacing the S&P 500's -1.25% and +13.6% respectively. This divergence from the broader market suggests company-specific catalysts are driving the move, with the April 2026 Phase 3 data acting as a major inflection point. The 1-month relative strength of +26.3% indicates continued buying pressure, though the rapid ascent could invite profit-taking. Key support lies at the 52-week low of $34.00, a distant 82% below current levels, while resistance is at the 52-week high of $193.10. A breakout above $193.10 would signal further upside and confirm the uptrend's extension, while a breakdown below recent support near $150 (the May-June consolidation zone) could indicate a pullback. The stock's beta of 1.376 implies 37.6% more volatility than the market, meaning outsized moves in both directions, which is consistent with its biotech risk profile and requires careful position sizing.

Beta

1.38

1.38x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-24.9%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$34-$194

Price range past year

Annual Return

+419.4%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodRVMD ReturnS&P 500
1m+27.6%+1.4%
3m+96.9%+10.6%
6m+77.4%+8.4%
1y+419.4%+20.5%
ytd+141.0%+9.7%

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RVMD Fundamental Analysis

Revolution Medicines is a pre-revenue clinical-stage biotech with zero product revenue in the most recent quarter (Q4 2025) and only $7.0 million in collaboration revenue for the full year. The company has no recurring revenue stream, and its growth trajectory is binary, dependent on clinical trial outcomes and regulatory approvals. The Q4 2025 net loss was -$364.9 million, widening from -$194.6 million in Q4 2024, reflecting increased R&D spending (R&D expense of $292.6 million in Q4 2025 vs. $188.1 million a year ago) as the pipeline advances. The company is deeply unprofitable, with a trailing twelve-month net loss of -$1.13 billion and negative gross margins (gross profit of -$4.7 million in Q4 2025). Operating margins are deeply negative, with operating income of -$361.6 million in Q4 2025, and the net margin is effectively zero due to no revenue. The company's balance sheet shows a current ratio of 7.14 and cash of $388.6 million as of Q4 2025, but it is burning cash rapidly: free cash flow was -$276.2 million in Q4 2025 and -$913.7 million on a TTM basis. The debt-to-equity ratio is low at 0.097, but the company relies on equity financing, as evidenced by the $2.2 billion public offering in April 2026. ROE is deeply negative at -69.3%, reflecting persistent losses. The company's financial health depends on its ability to raise capital and achieve regulatory milestones, making it a high-risk investment.

Quarterly Revenue

$0.0B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

N/A

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

N/A

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$-913731000.0B

Last 12 Months

Revenue Breakdown

Collaboration Revenue Member

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Valuation Analysis: Is RVMD Overvalued?

Since net income is negative, the price-to-sales (PS) ratio is the primary valuation metric, but with zero revenue, the PS ratio is undefined. Therefore, we use the price-to-book (PB) ratio of 9.28x as the most relevant metric, as the company's value is tied to its cash, pipeline assets, and intellectual property. The trailing PE is -13.4x and forward PE is -32.7x, both meaningless for a loss-making company. The PB ratio of 9.28x implies the market is valuing the company at over 9 times its book value, reflecting high expectations for future drug revenues. Compared to the biotechnology industry average PB ratio (typically around 4-6x for pre-revenue biotechs), Revolution Medicines trades at a significant premium, which is justified by its leading position in RAS-targeted therapies and the positive Phase 3 data. However, the premium also embeds substantial risk if clinical or regulatory outcomes disappoint. Historically, the PB ratio has ranged from 2.2x (Q4 2023) to 9.3x (current), placing it at the top of its historical band. This suggests the market is pricing in optimistic expectations for daraxonrasib's commercial potential, and any negative news could lead to multiple contraction. The PEG ratio is negative (-0.20) due to negative earnings, offering no useful growth-adjusted comparison.

PE

-13.4x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Mid-Range

5-Year PE Range -22x~-6x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

-13.7x

Enterprise Value Multiple