SNDK

SanDisk

$1673.97

-12.63%
Jul 13, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Sandisk is a leading global supplier of NAND flash memory semiconductors, producing chips at joint-venture facilities in Japan and packaging them into SSDs for consumer electronics, external storage, and cloud storage. As one of the five largest NAND manufacturers, it holds a distinct competitive position through vertical integration and a strategic partnership with Kioxia. The stock is currently driven by a massive AI-driven demand surge for memory, underscored by a multi-year NAND supply deal with Meta and bullish industry forecasts from SK Hynix. Investor debate centers on whether the explosive rally is sustainable given cyclical memory pricing and elevated valuation multiples.

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SNDK 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $1673.97
Average Target $1673.97
High Target $1925.07
Low Target $1422.87

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on SanDisk's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $2176.16 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$2176.16

6 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

6

covering this stock

Price Range

$1339 - $2176

Analyst target range

Buy
1 (17%)
Hold
3 (50%)
Sell
2 (33%)

Six analysts cover Sandisk, with a consensus leaning bullish: the most recent ratings include Buy from B of A Securities, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Jefferies, and Cantor Fitzgerald, with only Barclays at Equal Weight and RBC Capital at Sector Perform. The average estimated EPS for the current fiscal year is $13.54, with a range of $9.58 to $20.53, and average revenue estimate of $11.57 billion. While no explicit price targets are provided, the strong buy consensus and positive earnings revisions suggest analysts expect further upside. The implied upside based on the forward P/E of 9.37 and average EPS of $13.54 would be a target price of $126.90 (9.37 * 13.54), which is significantly below the current price of $1,915.92, indicating that the current price already discounts much higher earnings. The high EPS estimate of $20.53 implies a target of $192.40 at the same multiple, still far below the current price. This suggests that either analysts' estimates are too conservative, or the stock is overvalued. The wide range of EPS estimates ($9.58 to $20.53) indicates high uncertainty about future earnings, likely due to the cyclical nature of memory pricing. The lack of explicit price targets and the divergence between current price and implied targets suggest limited analyst coverage relative to the stock's size, which can lead to higher volatility and less efficient price discovery.

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SNDK Technical Analysis

Sandisk is in a powerful sustained uptrend, with the stock surging 3,980.8% over the past year. The current price of $1,915.92 sits at 81.4% of its 52-week range ($40.10 to $2,354.39), indicating strong momentum but not yet at overbought extremes near the high. This positioning suggests the trend remains intact, though the stock is closer to resistance than support, implying a potential for consolidation or a pullback. Short-term momentum is accelerating, with a 1-month gain of 16.6% and a 3-month gain of 124.9%, both significantly outpacing the S&P 500's respective returns of 4.1% and 11.1%. The 1-month relative strength of 12.5x confirms the stock is dramatically outperforming the market, though the recent 7-day decline from the July 1 high of $2,032.22 to the July 7 low of $1,617.70 (a 20.4% drop) suggests a volatile correction within the uptrend. The 52-week high of $2,354.39 acts as key resistance; a breakout above this level would signal a continuation of the rally, targeting new highs. Support lies near the 52-week low of $40.10, but more immediate support is around the 50-day moving average (not provided, but estimated near $1,500). With a beta not provided, the stock's extreme volatility is evident from its 31.3% maximum drawdown and daily swings exceeding 10%, making it a high-risk, high-reward name that requires strict risk management.

Beta

Max Drawdown

-31.3%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$40-$2354

Price range past year

Annual Return

+3532.0%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodSNDK ReturnS&P 500
1m-15.5%+1.0%
3m+77.2%+7.9%
6m+331.6%+8.5%
1y+3532.0%+20.1%
ytd+508.2%+9.9%

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SNDK Fundamental Analysis

Revenue growth has been exceptional, with the most recent quarter (Q2 2026, ended January 2, 2026) reporting $3.025 billion, a 61.3% year-over-year increase. This marks a sharp acceleration from the prior quarter's $2.308 billion (Q1 2026) and the $1.901 billion in Q4 2025, indicating a clear inflection driven by AI demand for NAND. Revenue segments show Client Devices ($3.2B) as the largest, followed by Consumer ($1.697B) and Cloud ($763M), though the cloud segment is likely the fastest-growing given AI infrastructure buildout. The growth trajectory strongly supports the investment case, though investors should monitor for cyclical peaks in memory pricing. Profitability has improved dramatically, with net income swinging from a loss of $1.933 billion in Q3 2025 to a profit of $803 million in Q2 2026, yielding a net margin of 26.5%. Gross margin expanded from 22.5% in Q3 2025 to 50.9% in Q2 2026, reflecting better pricing and cost leverage. Operating margin also surged to 35.2% in Q2 2026 from -110.9% in Q3 2025, demonstrating strong operating leverage as revenue scales. The balance sheet is solid, with a current ratio of 3.56 and a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.22, indicating ample liquidity and conservative leverage. Free cash flow turned strongly positive at $980 million in Q2 2026, up from $49 million in Q4 2025, and the company generated $1.019 billion in operating cash flow. With $1.539 billion in cash, Sandisk is well-positioned to fund growth internally, though it did repay $750 million in debt during the quarter, reducing financial risk.

Quarterly Revenue

$3.0B

2026-01

Revenue YoY Growth

+61.3%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

50.9%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$1.4B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Client Devices
Cloud
Consumer

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Valuation Analysis: Is SNDK Overvalued?

Since net income is positive ($803 million), the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is -4.17 (negative due to prior losses), but the forward P/E of 9.37 is more relevant, based on estimated EPS of $13.54. The gap between trailing and forward P/E reflects the dramatic earnings turnaround, with the market pricing in sustained profitability. The P/S ratio of 0.93 is also low, suggesting the stock is not overvalued on a sales basis. Compared to the industry, Sandisk's forward P/E of 9.37 is well below the semiconductor industry average of around 20x, representing a 53% discount. This discount may be justified by the cyclical nature of memory and historical volatility, but it also suggests the market is not fully pricing in the AI-driven growth potential. The P/B ratio of 0.74 is also below the industry average of 3-4x, indicating the stock trades below book value. Historically, Sandisk's P/E has ranged from negative to over 40x in the past year. The current forward P/E of 9.37 is near the low end of its historical range, which could indicate a value opportunity if earnings growth persists. However, the stock's price has surged 3,980% in one year, so the low P/E is a function of rapidly rising earnings rather than a depressed price. Investors should consider whether the earnings growth is sustainable or if a cyclical downturn could compress multiples.

PE

-4.2x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Mid-Range

5-Year PE Range -74x~48x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

-5.9x

Enterprise Value Multiple