SPS Commerce, Inc.
SPSC
$58.87
+5.67%
SPS Commerce, Inc. is a provider of cloud-based supply chain management services for the retail industry. It is a key player in the Software - Infrastructure sector, specializing in optimizing supply chain performance and omnichannel experiences for its customers.
SPSC
SPS Commerce, Inc.
$58.87
SPSC 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on SPS Commerce, Inc.'s 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $76.53 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$76.53
2 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
2
covering this stock
Price Range
$47 - $77
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage for SPS Commerce is limited, with only 3 analysts providing estimates. The consensus estimated EPS for the period is $6.84, with a range from $6.81 to $6.87. Estimated revenue is approximately $1.045 billion. Recent institutional ratings show a mix of opinions, with Citigroup maintaining a 'Buy' rating, Stifel and DA Davidson at 'Hold', and Morgan Stanley recently downgrading from 'Overweight' to 'Equal Weight' in November 2025. No specific consensus target price data is available in the provided inputs.
SPSC Technical Analysis
The stock has experienced a severe downtrend over the past six months, with the price falling from over $112 in October 2025 to around $55 by March 2026. This represents a decline of approximately 46.7% over six months and 39.3% over the last three months. The stock has significantly underperformed the broader market, as indicated by a relative strength of -32.0 over three months and -41.1 over six months. In the short term, the stock declined 2.5% over the past month, which was a better performance than the S&P 500's 7.9% decline. The price action shows a sharp drop in late October 2025 and another steep decline in February 2026, followed by a period of consolidation in the $54-$64 range during March 2026. The current price of $55.08 is near the 52-week low of $52.56 and significantly below the 52-week high of $153.16, placing it in the bottom 2% of its annual range. The stock has experienced a maximum drawdown of -64.5% from its peak, indicating extreme volatility and sustained selling pressure.
Beta
0.56
0.56x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-65.8%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$49-$144
Price range past year
Annual Return
-56.1%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | SPSC Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +11.0% | -3.6% |
| 3m | +8.0% | +15.3% |
| 6m | -36.0% | +6.1% |
| 1y | -56.1% | +18.6% |
| ytd | -33.0% | +6.9% |
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SPSC Fundamental Analysis
Revenue has shown consistent year-over-year growth, with Q4 2025 revenue of $192.7 million representing a 12.7% increase from the same quarter the prior year. Profitability remains solid, with a net margin of 12.4% in the latest quarter, though this has fluctuated between 10.5% and 13.4% over the past year. Operating margins have been stable, ranging from 14.2% to 18.0% in recent quarters. The company maintains a strong financial position with a very low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.01 and a healthy current ratio of 1.74. Free cash flow generation is robust, with $152.3 million in trailing twelve-month free cash flow, and the latest quarterly operating cash flow was $45.9 million. Operational efficiency metrics are positive, with a Return on Equity (ROE) of 9.6% and Return on Assets (ROA) of 6.7%. The company's gross margin remains high at 64.2%, reflecting the scalable nature of its cloud-based software business model.
Quarterly Revenue
$192652000.0B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+0.12%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.65%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$152266000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is SPSC Overvalued?
Given the company's positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio. The trailing P/E ratio is 36.2, while the forward P/E is 10.9, suggesting expectations of significantly higher future earnings. The Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio is 4.5, and the Enterprise Value to Sales (EV/Sales) is 2.5. The company's valuation appears more reasonable on a forward-looking basis, with the forward P/E of 10.9 suggesting the market has priced in the recent stock decline. The PEG ratio of 1.9 indicates the stock may be fairly valued relative to its expected earnings growth. However, without specific industry average data provided, a direct peer comparison cannot be made.
PE
36.2x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 33x~127x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
17.8x
Enterprise Value Multiple

