SSR Mining
SSRM
$35.51
+5.62%
SSR Mining Inc. is a precious metals producer operating gold and silver mines across the Americas, with its core assets being the Marigold mine in Nevada, the Seabee Gold Operation in Saskatchewan, and the Puna mine in Argentina, complemented by a portfolio that also yields lead, zinc, and other metals. The company occupies a mid-tier position in the gold mining industry, distinguished by its multi-jurisdictional asset base and a strategic pivot toward concentrating operations in the Americas following the divestiture of its troubled Çöpler mine in Turkey. The dominant investor narrative centers on the transformative $1.5 billion cash sale of Çöpler, which simultaneously de-risked the business, fortified the balance sheet, and funded an aggressive share buyback program, all while gold prices have provided a powerful tailwind. This combination of operational streamlining, capital returns, and commodity price leverage has driven a dramatic re-rating of the stock, with shares surging over 55% in the past year and analysts debating whether the rally has further room to run given the company's improved fundamentals and strong free cash flow generation.…
SSRM
SSR Mining
$35.51
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy SSRM Today?
The synthesized recommendation is Buy, anchored by a strong analyst consensus (5 analysts, 'strong_buy' rating, average target $43.20 implying 21.7% upside) and a compelling valuation. The core thesis is that SSR Mining offers deep value on forward earnings (7.81x PE) with a fortress balance sheet ($1.78 billion cash, debt-to-equity 0.1176) and expanding margins (60.87% gross margin), positioning it to benefit from sustained gold prices and capital returns.
Supporting evidence includes: 1) Revenue growth of 9.46% YoY in Q2 2026 to $443.8 million, with a multi-quarter upward trend; 2) Gross margin expansion to 60.87% from 53.34% a year ago, well above the industry's 20-40% range; 3) TTM free cash flow of $346.7 million, funding $337.8 million in buybacks in Q2 2026 alone; 4) Forward PE of 7.81x versus trailing PE of 11.24x, implying expected EPS growth to $2.565; and 5) A low EV/EBITDA of 6.41x and PB of 1.27x, below sector averages. The implied upside to the average analyst target is 21.7%, with even the low target of $40.00 offering 12.6% upside.
Key risks that could invalidate the thesis include: 1) A decline in gold prices below $1,800/oz, which would compress margins and cash flow; 2) Operational setbacks at key mines (Marigold, Seabee, Puna) leading to production shortfalls; and 3) Failure to sustain buybacks or execute growth initiatives. The rating would upgrade to Strong Buy if the forward PE compresses below 7x or if gold prices rise above $2,200/oz, and downgrade to Hold if revenue growth decelerates below 5% or if gross margins fall below 50%. Relative to its history (PE range 11-63x) and peers, the stock appears undervalued, trading at a discount on forward earnings and asset-based metrics.
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SSRM 12-Month Price Forecast
The forward-looking view is bullish, supported by deep value on forward earnings, exceptional margin expansion, and a strong balance sheet that funds capital returns. The analyst consensus of 'strong_buy' with a $43.20 average target reinforces confidence, though the recent 5.56% one-month decline and heavy reliance on gold prices introduce caution. The base case (50% probability) assumes gold stabilizes around $2,000/oz, leading to a target range of $40-45, while the bull case (30%) could see $48-50 if gold rallies. A downgrade to neutral would occur if gold prices fall below $1,800/oz or if Q3 earnings miss estimates, while an upgrade to high confidence would require sustained margin expansion and successful deployment of the cash pile.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on SSR Mining's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $43.20 and implied upside of +21.7% versus the current price.
Average Target
$43.20
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+21.7%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$40 - $50
Analyst target range
Five analysts cover SSR Mining, with a consensus recommendation of "strong_buy" and an average recommendation mean of 1.4 on a scale where 1 is a strong buy and 5 is a strong sell. The average target price is $43.20, which implies an upside of approximately 21.7% from the current price of $35.51, calculated as ($43.20 - $35.51) / $35.51. This consensus leans decidedly bullish, supported by recent institutional actions: RBC Capital maintained an Outperform rating in September 2026, UBS reiterated a Buy in July 2026, and CIBC upgraded to Outperform from Neutral in March 2026, indicating a pattern of positive analyst sentiment and potential for further upgrades.
The target price range spans from a low of $40.00 to a high of $50.00, representing a spread of $10.00 or 25% of the low target, which signals moderate uncertainty but also strong conviction given that even the lowest target implies a 12.6% upside from current levels. The high target of $50.00 likely assumes continued gold price strength, successful execution of growth initiatives, and further multiple expansion as the market recognizes the company's improved cash flow and de-risked portfolio. The low target of $40.00 may price in more conservative assumptions, such as stable gold prices, potential operational hiccups, or slower capital return progress, but still reflects a positive outlook. The tight clustering of targets above the current price, combined with the strong buy consensus and recent upgrades, suggests analysts see limited downside and meaningful upside, reinforcing the bullish investment case.
Bulls vs Bears: SSRM Investment Factors
The bull case currently has stronger evidence, driven by deep value on forward earnings (7.81x PE), exceptional margin expansion (60.87% gross margin), a fortress balance sheet with $1.78 billion cash, and a strong analyst consensus with 21.7% upside. However, the bear case highlights significant risks: recent momentum divergence (-5.56% 1-month return), heavy reliance on gold/silver prices for over 96% of revenue, and earnings volatility including a Q1 2026 loss. The single most important tension is whether the company can sustain its margin expansion and cash flow generation if gold prices plateau or decline, as the forward PE of 7.81x assumes robust earnings growth that may not materialize. If gold holds steady and operational execution continues, the stock could re-rate higher; if gold weakens or costs rise, the valuation could compress despite the strong balance sheet.
Bullish
- Deep Value on Forward Earnings: The forward PE of 7.81x is less than half the trailing PE of 11.24x, implying the market expects EPS to more than double to the analyst consensus of $2.565. This creates a compelling value case if earnings materialize, especially with the stock trading at a discount to its historical PE range.
- Exceptional Margin Expansion: Gross margin expanded to 60.87% in Q2 2026 from 53.34% a year earlier, while operating margin reached 51.83% and EBITDA margin hit 57.90%. These levels are well above the industry's typical 20-40% gross margin range, reflecting strong cost control and favorable gold prices.
- Fortress Balance Sheet with Cash Pile: Debt-to-equity is a mere 0.1176 and the current ratio is 2.08, providing substantial financial flexibility. The $1.78 billion cash position from the Çöpler sale funds growth and buybacks without dilution, with $337.8 million already returned via repurchases in Q2 2026.
- Strong Analyst Consensus and Upside: Five analysts rate the stock a 'strong_buy' with an average target of $43.20, implying 21.7% upside from $35.51. Even the lowest target of $40.00 suggests 12.6% upside, and recent upgrades from RBC, UBS, and CIBC reinforce positive sentiment.
Bearish
- Recent Momentum Divergence: The stock is down 5.56% over the past month, underperforming the S&P 500 by 7.68 percentage points, despite a 24.25% gain over three months. This divergence suggests a loss of near-term momentum and potential mean reversion after a 55.4% one-year surge.
- Commodity Price Dependency: Gold and silver account for over 96% of revenue ($317.9 million and $109.6 million respectively in Q2 2026), making the company highly sensitive to precious metal prices. A decline in gold prices would directly pressure margins and cash flow, as seen in the volatile quarterly revenue trend.
- Earnings Volatility and Negative Quarterly EPS: Q1 2026 reported a net loss of $106.45 million (EPS -$0.51) due to a tax expense of $59.78 million, highlighting earnings unpredictability. The trailing twelve-month EPS of $0.09 is barely positive, and the PEG ratio of -0.0448 reflects negative earnings growth expectations.
- No Dividend and Capital Return Uncertainty: The dividend yield is 0% and payout ratio is 0, meaning returns rely entirely on buybacks and price appreciation. While $337.8 million was repurchased in Q2 2026, the sustainability of buybacks depends on continued cash flow and gold prices, offering no regular income to shareholders.
SSRM Technical Analysis
SSR Mining is in a powerful, sustained uptrend, with the stock posting a 1-year gain of 55.4% and a year-to-date advance of 65.0%, dramatically outperforming the S&P 500's 16.0% and 14.2% respective returns. At a current price of $35.51, the stock is trading at approximately 81.6% of its 52-week range, calculated as ($35.51 - $18.19) / ($39.44 - $18.19), placing it in the upper echelon of its annual trading band but still below the absolute high of $39.44. This positioning signals strong momentum and market conviction, yet it also implies limited immediate upside to the prior peak, suggesting the stock may be approaching a zone of potential resistance where profit-taking could emerge.
Recent momentum presents a more nuanced picture, with the 1-month change of -5.56% contrasting sharply with the 3-month gain of 24.25% and the 1-year surge of 55.40%. This divergence indicates a temporary pullback or consolidation phase within a broader uptrend, potentially signaling mean reversion after an extended run rather than a trend reversal, especially given the stock's relative strength versus the S&P 500 of -7.68% over the past month. The 6-month change of 7.18% further underscores a deceleration from the explosive earlier gains, while the most recent daily price change of +5.62% on the latest close of $35.51 suggests buyers are stepping back in aggressively, possibly marking the end of the pullback.
Key technical levels are defined by the 52-week low of $18.19, which serves as a major support zone, and the 52-week high of $39.44, which represents the primary resistance ceiling. A decisive breakout above $39.44 would likely signal a continuation of the primary uptrend and could attract momentum-driven capital, while a breakdown below the $18.19 support would indicate a severe trend reversal, though such a move appears unlikely given the current price. The stock's beta of 0.968 indicates volatility roughly in line with the broader market, meaning it is not excessively risky on a relative basis, but the maximum drawdown of -31.28% over the observed period highlights that the stock can experience sharp corrections, warranting careful position sizing and stop-loss discipline.
Beta
0.97
0.97x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-31.3%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$18-$39
Price range past year
Annual Return
+55.4%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | SSRM Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -5.6% | +1.9% |
| 3m | +24.2% | +3.9% |
| 6m | +7.2% | +12.1% |
| 1y | +55.4% | +19.2% |
| ytd | +65.0% | +14.2% |
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SSRM Fundamental Analysis
SSR Mining's revenue trajectory has been robust and generally accelerating, with the most recent quarter (Q2 2026) reporting revenue of $443.8 million, representing a 9.46% year-over-year increase from $405.5 million in Q2 2025. The multi-quarter trend reveals significant volatility but an overall upward path: revenue surged to $581.8 million in Q1 2026 before settling to $443.8 million in Q2, while the prior three quarters ranged from $385.8 million to $521.7 million. Segment data shows gold is the dominant revenue driver at $317.9 million, followed by silver at $109.6 million, with lead, other metals, and zinc contributing marginally at $8.3 million, $6.6 million, and $1.4 million respectively, underscoring the company's heavy reliance on precious metals pricing and production volumes.
Profitability has been strong and margins are expanding, with Q2 2026 net income of $127.8 million and a gross margin of 60.87%, a substantial improvement from the 53.34% gross margin in Q2 2025 and the 47.39% in Q3 2025. The net income ratio for Q2 2026 stood at 28.79%, reflecting healthy bottom-line conversion, while the operating margin of 51.83% and EBITDA ratio of 57.90% highlight exceptional operational efficiency. This margin expansion is particularly impressive given the capital-intensive nature of gold mining, where industry gross margins typically range from 20% to 40%, positioning SSR Mining at the higher end of profitability benchmarks and suggesting effective cost management and favorable commodity price realization.
The balance sheet is exceptionally strong, with a debt-to-equity ratio of just 0.1176 and a current ratio of 2.08, indicating ample liquidity and minimal leverage. Free cash flow on a trailing twelve-month basis was $346.7 million, with Q2 2026 alone generating $67.8 million in FCF, supported by operating cash flow of $100.3 million against capital expenditures of $32.5 million. The company's ROE of 11.50% and ROA of 9.22% demonstrate efficient capital deployment, while the massive cash position of $1.78 billion at the end of Q2 2026, bolstered by the Çöpler sale, provides substantial firepower for growth investments, share buybacks, and potential shareholder returns without reliance on external financing.
Quarterly Revenue
$443798000.0B
2026-06
Revenue YoY Growth
+9.5%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
60.9%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$346727514.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is SSRM Overvalued?
With positive net income of $127.8 million in the most recent quarter and a trailing twelve-month EPS of $0.09, the PE ratio is the appropriate primary valuation metric, and the trailing PE stands at 11.24x while the forward PE is significantly lower at 7.81x. The substantial gap between trailing and forward multiples implies the market is pricing in robust earnings growth, consistent with analyst estimates of $2.565 in average EPS for the coming year, which would represent a dramatic increase from current levels. This forward valuation suggests that if earnings materialize as expected, the stock is trading at a deep discount to its current earnings power, potentially offering compelling value.
Compared to the broader Basic Materials sector and the gold industry, SSR Mining's valuation appears mixed: its PS ratio of 2.68x and EV/EBITDA of 6.41x are relatively modest, while its PB ratio of 1.27x is below the sector average, indicating a discount to peers on asset-based metrics. The net margin of 24.28% and operating margin of 28.86% are competitive within the gold mining space, justifying a premium to some peers, yet the low PE and EV/EBITDA multiples suggest the market is not fully crediting the company's improved profitability. The dividend yield of 0% and payout ratio of 0 contrast with some gold miners that return capital via dividends, but the aggressive share buyback program ($337.8 million repurchased in Q2 2026) represents an alternative, tax-efficient return mechanism.
Historically, SSR Mining's valuation has been volatile, with the PE ratio ranging from negative territory during loss-making periods to a high of 63.27x in Q4 2024, and the PS ratio fluctuating between 4.13x and 18.36x over the past three years. The current PE of 11.24x is near the lower end of its historical band, while the PS ratio of 2.68x is also toward the bottom of its multi-year range, suggesting the stock is not expensive relative to its own history. This historical context implies that either the market is undervaluing the company's earnings potential or that there are lingering concerns about sustainability, but the forward PE of 7.81x and the strong balance sheet argue for a favorable risk-reward profile.
PE
11.2x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 4x~28x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
6.4x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial and operational risks are moderate but notable. The debt-to-equity ratio of 0.1176 and current ratio of 2.08 indicate a strong balance sheet, but the company's profitability is heavily tied to commodity prices, with gold and silver comprising over 96% of Q2 2026 revenue. Earnings volatility is evident: Q1 2026 posted a net loss of $106.45 million (EPS -$0.51) due to a $59.78 million tax expense, while Q2 2026 rebounded to $127.78 million net income. Additionally, the trailing twelve-month EPS of $0.09 is razor-thin, and the PEG ratio of -0.0448 signals negative earnings growth expectations, underscoring the risk of relying on forward estimates. Free cash flow of $346.7 million TTM is robust, but capital expenditures ($32.5 million in Q2 2026) and potential operational disruptions at mines like Marigold or Seabee could pressure cash generation.
Market and competitive risks stem from the stock's premium valuation relative to its own history and sector dynamics. The PS ratio of 2.68x and EV/EBITDA of 6.41x are modest, but the forward PE of 7.81x assumes significant earnings growth that may not be realized if gold prices decline. The beta of 0.968 indicates market-correlated volatility, but the stock's 55.4% one-year gain and 65.0% YTD rise have outpaced the S&P 500 (16.0% and 14.2% respectively), increasing vulnerability to profit-taking. Recent news highlights the transformative $1.5 billion Çöpler sale, which de-risked the portfolio, but also notes a fund's complete exit after a 200% rally, suggesting some investors see limited upside. Competitive pressures include rising production costs across the gold mining industry and potential resource nationalism in Argentina, where the Puna mine operates.
A worst-case scenario would involve a sharp decline in gold prices (e.g., below $1,800/oz) combined with operational setbacks at key mines, leading to margin compression and reduced cash flow. This could trigger a re-rating of the stock to its 52-week low of $18.19, representing a 48.8% decline from the current price of $35.51. The maximum drawdown over the observed period is -31.28%, indicating that such a drop is within historical volatility. Additionally, if the company fails to execute on buybacks or growth initiatives, the stock could fall to the analyst low target of $40.00 (which is above current price, but in a bear case, targets would likely be revised downward). In a severe downturn, investors could lose 30-50% from current levels, with the 52-week low serving as a realistic downside anchor.
FAQ
The most severe risk is commodity price exposure: gold and silver account for over 96% of revenue, so a drop in gold prices below $1,800/oz would significantly compress margins and cash flow. Second, operational risks include potential disruptions at key mines (Marigold, Seabee, Puna), which could lead to production shortfalls and earnings misses, as seen in Q1 2026's net loss of $106.45 million. Third, financial risks are low given the strong balance sheet, but the company's earnings volatility (TTM EPS of $0.09) and negative PEG ratio (-0.0448) indicate unpredictable profitability. Fourth, geopolitical risks persist in Argentina, where the Puna mine operates, exposing the company to currency controls and political instability. These risks are ranked from highest to lowest impact.
The 12-month forecast includes three scenarios: a base case (50% probability) with a target range of $40-45, assuming gold stabilizes around $2,000/oz and EPS meets the $2.565 consensus; a bull case (30% probability) targeting $48-50 if gold rallies above $2,200/oz and buybacks accelerate; and a bear case (20% probability) targeting $18-30 if gold falls below $1,800/oz and operational issues arise. The most likely scenario is the base case, driven by steady gold prices and continued margin expansion. The key assumption is that gold prices remain above $1,900/oz, allowing the company to sustain its 60%+ gross margins and generate sufficient cash flow to fund buybacks.
SSRM appears undervalued relative to its earnings potential and historical multiples. The forward PE of 7.81x is significantly below the trailing PE of 11.24x and the company's historical PE range of 11-63x, suggesting the market is pricing in substantial earnings growth. The PS ratio of 2.68x and EV/EBITDA of 6.41x are also modest compared to peers in the gold mining sector, while the PB ratio of 1.27x is below the sector average. The market seems to expect EPS to more than double to $2.565, which may be conservative given the company's margin expansion and cash generation. If earnings meet or exceed estimates, the stock could re-rate higher, implying current undervaluation.
From a risk/reward perspective, SSRM appears attractive for investors with a moderate risk tolerance and a positive outlook on gold prices. The stock trades at a forward PE of 7.81x, well below its trailing PE of 11.24x, and offers 21.7% upside to the average analyst target of $43.20. The company's strong balance sheet (debt-to-equity 0.1176, $1.78 billion cash) and robust free cash flow ($346.7 million TTM) provide a margin of safety. However, the biggest downside risk is a decline in gold prices, which could push the stock toward its 52-week low of $18.19, representing a 48.8% loss. It is a good buy for value-oriented investors who believe gold will remain above $1,900/oz, but less suitable for those seeking income (0% dividend yield) or low volatility.
SSRM is more suitable for long-term investment (minimum 1-2 years) given its growth stage, commodity price sensitivity, and lack of dividend income. The company is in a transitional phase after the Çöpler sale, focusing on optimizing its Americas portfolio and returning capital via buybacks, which may take time to reflect in the stock price. The beta of 0.968 indicates market-level volatility, but the maximum drawdown of -31.28% shows it can experience sharp corrections, making short-term trading risky. Earnings visibility is moderate, with analyst estimates providing some guidance, but quarterly volatility (e.g., Q1 2026 loss) suggests that long-term holding allows investors to ride out commodity cycles. A minimum holding period of 18-24 months is recommended to capture the full benefit of margin expansion and capital returns.