SSR Mining
SSRM
$28.07
-0.46%
SSR Mining Inc. is a precious metals producer operating gold and silver mines across the Americas, with its core assets being the Marigold gold mine in Nevada, the Seabee Gold Operation in Saskatchewan, and the Puna silver mine in Argentina, supplemented by lead and zinc by-products. The company occupies a mid-tier position in the gold mining sector, distinguished less by scale than by an active portfolio transformation — most notably the divestiture of its troubled Çöpler mine in Turkey for $1.5 billion, which management has used to de-risk the balance sheet and fund aggressive share repurchases. The current investor narrative centers on that capital-return story colliding with a new growth bet: the all-cash acquisition of Roxmore Resources, which management projects could add 150,000–170,000 ounces of annual gold production and roughly $200 million in annual savings, but whose complexity and lack of immediate financial contribution has weighed on shares since the October announcement. Underpinning the debate is a strong underlying operating trend — record gross margins above 50% and double-digit revenue growth — leaving investors to weigh whether the market is mispricing a cash-rich, low-cost producer or correctly discounting integration and commodity-price risk.…
SSRM
SSR Mining
$28.07
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Investment Opinion: Should I buy SSRM Today?
Rating: Buy (accumulate on weakness). The core thesis is that SSRM is a cash-rich, low-cost precious metals producer trading at roughly 8.9x consensus forward EPS of $3.19 (versus a trailing PE of 11.24x) and 6.41x EV/EBITDA, with a fortress balance sheet ($1.55 billion of cash, debt-to-equity of 0.1176) and a uniformly bullish sell-side stance — UBS Buy (reiterated 2026-11-04), CIBC Outperform, RBC Outperform, and B of A Buy, with zero downgrades in the visible history. The stock's -13.34% one-month decline against a -4.99% SPY move has created an entry point into a business whose fundamentals have not deteriorated.
Supporting evidence is concrete: Q3 2026 revenue of $447.66 million grew 16.02% YoY at a 50.65% gross margin and 27.29% operating margin, with 2026 gross margins running 50–61% versus 47–53% in 2025 — genuine margin expansion, not a one-off. Trailing twelve-month free cash flow of $341.01 million and a 24.28% net margin sit alongside a 2.08 current ratio and interest expense of just $115,000 in Q3 (coverage above 1,000x). Management returned $531.39 million of capital in H1 2026 alone ($337.78 million in Q2 plus $193.61 million in Q3), shrinking shares outstanding from 213.4 million to 202.9 million year-over-year, and the tight analyst EPS range of $3.04–$3.41 (about 12% spread) signals conviction rather than disagreement. Note that explicit price targets are not in the dataset, so implied upside cannot be precisely calculated — the valuation anchor is the forward multiple instead.
The biggest risks that could invalidate this thesis are (1) a sustained gold price decline, given gold's $326.60 million of Q3 segment revenue versus $120.20 million for silver and roughly $10.86 million for base metals; (2) Roxmore integration friction, where the promised 150,000–170,000 ounces and ~$200 million of savings are projections, not results; and (3) Argentine country risk at Puna plus thin two-analyst coverage that amplifies headline volatility. The rating would upgrade to a stronger Buy if the stock reclaims $35.50 and Roxmore delivers first quantifiable synergies, and would downgrade to Hold if the price breaks decisively below $26 (opening a retest of the $24.56 low) or if gross margins slip below 45%. On balance, at 11.24x trailing PE and 1.27x price-to-book — mid-band versus its own history of 0.45x to 2.07x P/B — the stock is fairly valued to modestly undervalued relative to its earnings power and cheap versus mid-tier peers at 7–10x EV/EBITDA.
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SSRM 12-Month Price Forecast
The forward view is constructive but not aggressive: a 55% base case puts the stock back toward $35.50 as the Roxmore overhang fades and the market re-anchors on an 8.9x forward multiple, while the 25% bull case targets the $39.21 August high and beyond if integration delivers and gold holds. The 20% bear case is anchored at the $24.56 June low, only about -13.5% below the current $28.38, which makes the risk/reward asymmetric in the buyer's favor given the $1.55 billion cash pile and 50%+ gross margins. Confidence is medium rather than high because coverage is thin (2 EPS estimators), the stock has broken down -13.34% in a month and -17.02% over six months, and the Roxmore projections are unproven. I would upgrade to high confidence if the stock reclaims $35.50 with Roxmore synergy disclosure, and downgrade to neutral if it breaks below $26 or if gross margins fall under 45%.
Wall Street consensus
Coverage is thin, with only 2 analysts contributing EPS estimates, but the institutional ratings feed shows a consistently bullish stance from the firms that do follow the name: UBS reiterated Buy on 2026-11-04 and 2026-10-14, CIBC maintained Outperform on 2026-10-05, RBC Capital held Outperform on 2026-09-16, and B of A Securities reiterated Buy on 2026-07-09. Notably, RBC upgraded from Sector Perform to Outperform on 2026-06-03, and there have been no downgrades in the visible ratings history — a pattern of stable-to-improving sentiment. The consensus EPS estimate of $3.19 (range $3.04–$3.41) against the $28.38 price implies a forward multiple near 8.9x, which the sell-side clearly views as undervalued given the uniform Buy/Outperform ratings; however, the dataset does not provide explicit price targets, so a precise implied upside to a consensus target cannot be calculated and should be treated as data not available.
The estimate range is relatively tight — EPS estimates span $3.04 to $3.41, a spread of about 12% around the $3.19 midpoint — which signals reasonable conviction among the small covering group rather than wide disagreement. The high end of $3.41 EPS would imply a forward multiple of roughly 8.3x at the current price, likely assuming sustained elevated gold prices, successful Roxmore integration adding 150,000–170,000 ounces of annual production, and continued buyback-driven share count reduction; the low end of $3.04 implies about 9.3x and likely bakes in softer metal prices, integration friction, or Argentine operating risk at Puna. The key caveat is coverage depth: with only 2 analysts in the estimate pool, price discovery is less efficient and the stock is more susceptible to headline-driven volatility — as evidenced by the -13.34% one-month move — so investors should weight the bullish institutional ratings as a sentiment signal rather than a precise valuation anchor.
Bulls vs Bears: SSRM Investment Factors
The bull case currently rests on stronger hard evidence: a 8.9x forward multiple against 50%+ gross margins, $1.55 billion of cash, and a 16% revenue growth rate is a genuinely cheap combination, and the sell-side is uniformly positive with no downgrades. The bear case is driven more by price action and execution uncertainty than by deteriorating fundamentals — the -13.34% one-month decline and the Roxmore integration overhang are real, but neither yet shows up in the income statement. The single most important tension is whether the market is mispricing a cash-rich, low-cost producer or correctly discounting the risk that Roxmore's promised 150,000–170,000 ounces and $200 million of savings fail to materialize while gold prices mean-revert. How that integration resolves — and whether gold holds its elevated level — is the factor that would most change the thesis; on balance, the fundamental evidence edges toward the bulls, but the technical breakdown argues for patience rather than chasing.
Bullish
- Deep discount on forward earnings: At $28.38, the consensus EPS of $3.19 implies a forward multiple of roughly 8.9x, versus a trailing PE of 11.24x and an EV/EBITDA of just 6.41x. Mid-tier gold miners with 50%+ gross margins typically trade at 7–10x EV/EBITDA, so SSRM sits at the low end of that band despite record profitability.
- Record margins and 16% revenue growth: Q3 2026 revenue of $447.66 million rose 16.02% YoY, with a 50.65% gross margin and 27.29% operating margin. Gross margins have run 50–61% across all of 2026 versus 47–53% in 2025, evidence of genuine margin expansion rather than a one-off.
- Fortress balance sheet after Çöpler sale: The $1.5 billion cash sale of the troubled Turkish mine left SSRM with $1.55 billion of cash, debt-to-equity of just 0.1176, and a current ratio of 2.08. Interest expense of only $115,000 in Q3 gives interest coverage above 1,000x, effectively eliminating financial risk.
- Aggressive buybacks shrink the share count: Management repurchased $193.61 million of stock in Q3 and $337.78 million in Q2, reducing shares outstanding from 213.4 million in Q3 2025 to 202.9 million a year later. This capital return signals confidence and mechanically lifts per-share metrics.
Bearish
- Momentum has broken down sharply: The stock is down -13.34% over one month and -10.70% over three months, lagging SPY by -8.35 points in the last month alone. The October slide from $35.51 to $26.48 was a roughly 25% peak-to-trough decline in under a month, and the -33.28% max drawdown shows how violent the swings can be.
- Roxmore deal is a costly, unproven bet: The all-cash Roxmore acquisition announced in October adds integration complexity and no immediate financial contribution, which is precisely why shares fell on the news. The promised 150,000–170,000 ounces of annual production and ~$200 million of savings are management projections, not realized results.
- Commodity concentration is extreme: Gold generated $326.60 million of Q3 segment revenue versus $120.20 million for silver and just $10.86 million combined for lead and zinc. The investment case is effectively a leveraged bet on precious metals prices, leaving little diversification if gold corrects.
- Earnings and cash flow are lumpy: Q1 2026 posted a net loss of -$106.45 million (EPS -$0.51) despite a 61.27% gross margin, and Q3 2026 free cash flow was -$8.12 million on $100.20 million of capex plus a $104.95 million working-capital build. Quarterly results are volatile enough to whipsaw sentiment.
SSRM Technical Analysis
SSR Mining is in a recovery-and-rollover pattern rather than a clean uptrend: the stock is up 43.48% over the past year and 31.88% year-to-date, yet it has given back ground recently, with the current price of $28.38 sitting roughly 73% of the way through its trailing 180-day range (approximately $24.56 low to $39.21 high). That positioning — well off the highs but far above the lows — signals a stock that has surrendered momentum without breaking its longer-term structure, and the -33.28% max drawdown confirms how violently it has swung within that band. The 1-year relative strength versus SPY of +33.89 percentage points underscores that, despite the pullback, this remains a decisive market outperformer over the trailing twelve months.
Short-term momentum has clearly decelerated and now diverges sharply from the annual trend: the stock is down -13.34% over the past month and -10.70% over three months, versus a +43.48% one-year gain, and it has lagged SPY by -8.35 points in the last month alone. This is a classic momentum breakdown within a longer uptrend — the August surge to $39.21 has unwound into a lower-highs sequence, with the October slide from $35.51 to $26.48 marking a roughly 25% peak-to-trough decline in under a month. The most recent sessions show tentative stabilization (+1.65% on the latest day to $28.38, on volume of about 2.82 million shares), but the -17.02% six-month change and -16.48 point six-month relative strength confirm the intermediate trend has turned negative even as the yearly picture stays positive.
Key technical levels are well defined: support sits at the 180-day low near $24.56, with a secondary shelf around $26.16–$26.48 where the stock recently bottomed, while resistance is anchored at the $39.21 high, with intermediate supply near $35.50–$37.75 where the September–October rally repeatedly failed. A decisive break below $26 would signal the August breakout has fully failed and likely open a retest of the $24.56 low, whereas reclaiming $35.50 would repair the uptrend and put the $39.21 high back in play. With a beta-implied volatility profile consistent with a -33.28% max drawdown and a 180-day range spanning roughly 60% from low to high, position sizing should assume wide swings; the current price of $28.38 sits only about 15% above the recent $24.56 floor, a relatively asymmetric risk/reward for dip buyers but a warning for momentum traders.
Beta
—
—
Max Drawdown
-33.3%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
—
Price range past year
Annual Return
+34.8%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | SSRM Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -20.8% | -2.4% |
| 3m | -11.8% | -2.3% |
| 6m | -10.6% | +2.8% |
| 1y | +34.8% | +11.3% |
| ytd | +30.4% | +11.4% |
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SSRM Fundamental Analysis
Revenue is growing robustly and the trajectory is constructive: Q3 2026 revenue of $447.66 million rose 16.02% year-over-year versus $385.84 million in Q3 2025, and the trailing four quarters total roughly $1.99 billion (Q4 2025 $521.73M, Q1 2026 $581.78M, Q2 2026 $443.80M, Q3 2026 $447.66M). Gold dominates the mix at $326.60 million of segment revenue, with silver contributing $120.20 million and base metals (lead $9.61M, zinc $1.25M) marginal, so the investment case is effectively a leveraged bet on gold and silver prices. The quarterly cadence has moderated from the Q1 peak of $581.78 million, but the 16% YoY growth and analyst consensus revenue estimate of $1.99 billion for the forward year suggest a stable-to-growing top line rather than deceleration.
Profitability is strong and margins are elevated, though quarterly volatility is pronounced: Q3 2026 net income was $79.88 million on a 50.65% gross margin and 27.29% operating margin, while Q2 2026 delivered $127.78 million of net income at a 60.87% gross margin. The Q1 2026 net loss of -$106.45 million (EPS -$0.51) despite a 61.27% gross margin reflects a large non-operating/tax charge rather than operational weakness, since operating income that quarter was still $305.33 million. Trailing net margin of 24.28% and gross margin of 35.73% (the latter diluted by weaker prior-year quarters) compare favorably to typical mid-tier gold miner economics, and the trend of gross margins running 50–61% in 2026 versus 47–53% in 2025 points to genuine margin expansion driven by higher realized metal prices and cost control.
Financial health is excellent: debt-to-equity is just 0.1176, the current ratio is 2.08, and cash stood at $1.55 billion at Q3 2026 after the Çöpler proceeds, giving the company ample internal funding capacity. Free cash flow is lumpy — trailing twelve-month FCF of $341.01 million and Q2 2026 FCF of $67.77 million contrast with a Q3 2026 FCF outflow of -$8.12 million driven by $100.20 million of capex and a $104.95 million working-capital build — but operating cash flow of $92.08 million in Q3 and $260.83 million in Q1 shows the core engine is cash-generative. ROE of 11.50% and interest coverage above 1,000x (interest expense of just $115,000 in Q3) confirm a conservatively financed business, and the $193.61 million of Q3 share repurchases (plus $337.78 million in Q2) demonstrate management's willingness to return the cash war chest to shareholders rather than hoard it.
Quarterly Revenue
$447655000.0B
2026-09
Revenue YoY Growth
+16.0%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
50.6%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$341011514.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is SSRM Overvalued?
Because net income is positive, the PE ratio is the appropriate primary metric: SSRM trades at a trailing PE of 11.24x, which is modest for a gold producer enjoying 50%+ gross margins and 16% revenue growth. The forward PE figure of -0.04x in the dataset is not economically meaningful (it appears to be a corrupted PEG-style field), but the analyst consensus EPS estimate of $3.19 against the current $28.38 price implies a forward multiple of roughly 8.9x — a meaningful discount to the trailing 11.24x that signals the market expects earnings to grow substantially, consistent with the Roxmore production additions and elevated metal prices.
On peer comparison, the stock screens cheap across most measures: EV/EBITDA of 6.41x, price-to-book of 1.27x, and price-to-sales of 2.68x are all at or below levels typical for mid-tier gold miners, which often trade in the 7–10x EV/EBITDA range when margins are strong. The PEG ratio of -0.04 is distorted by sign issues and should be disregarded, but the combination of a 24.28% net margin, 28.86% operating margin, and 6.41x EV/EBITDA implies the market is not fully capitalizing the current earnings power — a discount that may reflect skepticism about the Roxmore integration, Argentine country risk at Puna, and the inherent volatility of gold prices rather than any deficiency in the underlying business.
Historically, SSRM's valuation has compressed dramatically: the PE ratio was 63.27x at Q4 2024, 19.08x at Q3 2025, and 6.09x at Q4 2025, while price-to-book ranged from 0.45x in late 2024 to 2.07x at Q3 2026. The current 11.24x PE and 1.27x P/B sit in the middle of that multi-year band — far above the distressed 2024 lows but well below the 2026 peak multiples — suggesting the market has re-rated the stock for improved profitability but is not yet pricing in optimistic expectations. That middle-of-the-band positioning, combined with a 9.26x price-to-cash-flow and 2.68x P/S, frames the stock as reasonably valued rather than either a deep-value opportunity or an overextended momentum name.
PE
11.2x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 4x~28x
vs. Industry Avg
16.4x
Industry PE ~16.4x*
EV/EBITDA
6.4x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial and operational risks are modest but not absent. The balance sheet is genuinely strong — debt-to-equity of 0.1176, a current ratio of 2.08, and $1.55 billion of cash — so solvency is not a concern; the risk is earnings volatility instead. Q1 2026 produced a -$106.45 million net loss (EPS -$0.51) despite a 61.27% gross margin, and Q3 2026 free cash flow turned negative at -$8.12 million on $100.20 million of capex and a $104.95 million working-capital build, showing that cash generation can swing sharply quarter to quarter. Revenue concentration is the deeper structural risk: gold accounted for $326.60 million of Q3 segment revenue versus $120.20 million for silver and roughly $10.86 million for base metals, so a 10% move in gold prices dominates the P&L. The Roxmore acquisition adds execution risk on top — the projected 150,000–170,000 ounces and ~$200 million of annual savings are unproven, and integration friction could pressure margins before it lifts them.
Market and competitive risks center on valuation compression and commodity sensitivity. At 6.41x EV/EBITDA and 1.27x price-to-book, SSRM is not expensive in absolute terms, but its earnings are levered to gold, and a sustained decline in metal prices would compress both the numerator and the multiple simultaneously. The stock's beta-implied volatility is high — a -33.28% max drawdown and a 180-day range spanning roughly 60% from the $24.56 low to the $39.21 high — meaning sector rotation out of miners can inflict outsized damage. Recent news highlights the pattern: the October Roxmore announcement drove a sharp selloff, and the stock has lagged SPY by -8.35 points over the past month even as the one-year relative strength remains +33.89 points. Argentine country risk at Puna and thin analyst coverage (only 2 EPS estimators) further amplify headline-driven moves.
The worst-case scenario is a compound event: gold prices retreat from their elevated 2026 levels while Roxmore integration costs run over budget and Puna faces an Argentine operational or political disruption. In that chain, forward EPS could fall toward the low estimate of $3.04 or below, and the multiple could compress toward the distressed 2024 levels when the PE touched 63x on collapsed earnings and price-to-book fell to 0.45x. A retest of the 180-day low of $24.56 would represent roughly -13.5% from the current $28.38, while a fuller de-rating toward the June 2026 trough near $24.56 combined with an earnings miss could push losses toward -20% to -25%; the -33.28% max drawdown is the realistic tail marker for a severe outcome.
FAQ
Ranked by severity, the first risk is commodity concentration: gold produced $326.60 million of Q3 segment revenue versus $120.20 million for silver and roughly $10.86 million for base metals, so a sustained gold decline hits both earnings and the multiple simultaneously. Second is execution risk on Roxmore, where the promised 150,000–170,000 ounces and ~$200 million of annual savings are projections, and the October announcement alone coincided with a slide from $35.51 to $26.48. Third is earnings and cash-flow volatility — Q1 2026 posted a -$106.45 million net loss (EPS -$0.51) despite a 61.27% gross margin, and Q3 2026 free cash flow was -$8.12 million on $100.20 million of capex and a $104.95 million working-capital build. Fourth is structural: Argentine political or operational disruption at Puna plus thin two-analyst coverage that amplifies headline-driven moves, evidenced by a -33.28% max drawdown and -8.35 points of one-month relative underperformance versus SPY.
The scenario framework assigns a 55% probability to the base case of $28.38–$35.50, a 25% probability to the bull case of $39.21–$44.00, and a 20% probability to the bear case of $24.56–$26.48. The base case is most likely: it assumes gold holds near 2026 averages, gross margins stay in the 50% range, Roxmore contributes modestly without cost overruns, and consensus EPS of $3.19 is broadly met, letting the stock grind back toward the $35.50 resistance where the September–October rally repeatedly failed. The bull case requires Roxmore integration milestones, gold sustaining elevated levels, buybacks pushing shares below 200 million, and estimate revisions toward the $3.41 high end. The bear case is anchored at the June 2026 low of $24.56, roughly -13.5% from the current price, and would be triggered by a gold correction combined with integration overruns or a Puna disruption.
The stock screens modestly undervalued on earnings-based measures. Trailing PE is 11.24x, but the $3.19 consensus EPS against the $28.38 price implies a forward multiple near 8.9x, and EV/EBITDA of 6.41x sits at the low end of the 7–10x band typical for mid-tier gold miners with 50%+ gross margins. Price-to-book of 1.27x and price-to-sales of 2.68x are unremarkable, and the 9.26x price-to-cash-flow is reasonable for a business generating $341.01 million of trailing free cash flow. Against its own history the stock is mid-band: PE has ranged from 6.09x at Q4 2025 to 63.27x at Q4 2024, and P/B from 0.45x to 2.07x, so the current 11.24x PE and 1.27x P/B reflect a re-rating for improved profitability without pricing in optimism. The market appears to be discounting Roxmore execution risk, Argentine country risk at Puna, and gold-price mean reversion rather than any deficiency in current earnings power — implying that if those overhangs clear, the multiple has room to expand toward peer levels.
On a risk/reward basis the setup is reasonably attractive but not without caveats. At $28.38 the stock trades at roughly 8.9x consensus forward EPS of $3.19 and 6.41x EV/EBITDA, with a $1.55 billion cash pile, debt-to-equity of just 0.1176, and 50.65% Q3 gross margins — a cheap combination for a producer growing revenue 16.02% year-over-year. The downside is quantifiable: the 180-day low of $24.56 sits only about 13.5% below the current price, while the August high of $39.21 implies roughly 38% upside, and the sell-side is uniformly positive (UBS Buy reiterated 2026-11-04, CIBC Outperform, RBC Outperform, B of A Buy) with zero downgrades in the visible history. The catch is that coverage is thin at only 2 EPS estimators, the stock has fallen -13.34% in a month versus a -4.99% SPY move, and the Roxmore integration is unproven. It is a good buy for commodity-tolerant investors accumulating on weakness with a 12–18 month horizon, and a poor chase for momentum traders until $35.50 is reclaimed.
This is primarily a medium-to-long-term holding rather than a trading vehicle, though its volatility makes it unsuitable for low-turnover conservative portfolios. The stock pays no dividend (0% yield, 0% payout ratio), so total return depends on price appreciation and buyback-driven per-share accretion — management repurchased $193.61 million in Q3 and $337.78 million in Q2, cutting shares from 213.4 million to 202.9 million year-over-year. Earnings visibility is only moderate: quarterly results have swung from a -$0.51 EPS loss in Q1 2026 to $0.61 in Q2 and $0.40 in Q3, and the -33.28% max drawdown with a 180-day range of roughly $24.56 to $39.21 demands position sizing discipline. A concrete minimum holding period of 12–18 months is appropriate to let Roxmore synergies surface and the multiple re-anchor, with a suggested entry discipline of accumulating near the $26–$28 support shelf rather than chasing strength above $35.50.