SSR Mining
SSRM
$27.25
-2.01%
SSR Mining Inc. is a precious metals mining company focused on gold and silver production across the Americas, operating the Marigold mine in Nevada, the Seabee Gold Operation in Saskatchewan, and the Puna mine in Argentina. It distinguishes itself as a mid-tier gold producer with a diversified asset base and a strong balance sheet, recently bolstered by a transformative $1.5 billion sale of its troubled Copler mine in Turkey. The current investor narrative centers on the company's strategic pivot to the Americas, significant de-risking, and a massive share buyback program, which have driven a sharp rally in the stock amid rising gold prices and improved operational focus.…
SSRM
SSR Mining
$27.25
Related headlines
SSRM 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on SSR Mining's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $41.40 and implied upside of +51.9% versus the current price.
Average Target
$41.40
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+51.9%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$39 - $48
Analyst target range
Three analysts cover SSRM, with a consensus leaning bullish: all three have Buy or Outperform ratings (B of A Securities, RBC Capital, UBS). The average estimated EPS for the current fiscal year is $2.675, with a low of $2.516 and high of $2.853. The average revenue estimate is $1.985 billion, implying significant growth from the $1.6 billion TTM revenue. While specific price targets are not provided, the strong buy consensus and recent upgrades (RBC from Sector Perform to Outperform in June 2026, CIBC from Neutral to Outperform in March 2026) indicate positive sentiment. The implied upside cannot be calculated without target prices, but the earnings estimates suggest confidence in the company's growth story. The range of EPS estimates ($2.516–$2.853) is relatively narrow, indicating high conviction among analysts. The high estimate assumes continued operational success and favorable gold prices, while the low estimate may factor in potential cost inflation or production disruptions. Recent ratings actions have been uniformly positive, with no downgrades, reinforcing the bullish outlook. The limited coverage (3 analysts) is typical for a mid-cap miner, but the quality of coverage from major banks adds credibility. The tight estimate range suggests low uncertainty about near-term earnings, supporting the stock's investment case.
Bulls vs Bears: SSRM Investment Factors
SSR Mining presents a compelling bull case centered on its strategic transformation following the $1.5 billion Copler mine sale, which de-risks the business and provides a massive cash infusion. The company's strong revenue growth, expanding margins, and attractive valuation (trailing P/E of 11.2x) support the bullish thesis. However, the Q1 2026 net loss and recent price pullback introduce caution. The bear case highlights dependence on gold prices, execution risk, and limited analyst coverage. Currently, the bull case has stronger evidence due to the tangible de-risking and strong operational momentum, but the single most important tension is whether the company can sustain its improved profitability and deploy its cash hoard effectively to drive long-term shareholder value.
Bullish
- Strategic Pivot and De-risking: The $1.5 billion sale of the troubled Copler mine eliminates a major operational and reputational risk, allowing SSR Mining to refocus on its Americas-based assets. This transaction significantly strengthens the balance sheet and provides a substantial cash war chest for growth initiatives and shareholder returns.
- Massive Share Buyback Program: Management has announced a large share buyback program, signaling strong confidence in the company's undervalued stock. This program, combined with the Copler sale proceeds, is expected to drive significant per-share earnings accretion and support the stock price.
- Strong Revenue Growth and Margins: Revenue surged 83.8% year-over-year to $581.8 million in Q1 2026, driven by higher gold prices and increased production. Gross margin improved to 61.3% from 47.4% in Q3 2025, and operating margin expanded to 52.5% from 21.6%, demonstrating operational leverage.
- Attractive Valuation with Low Leverage: The trailing P/E of 11.2x and forward P/E of 5.5x are well below historical averages and the gold mining peer group. The debt-to-equity ratio of 0.118 is extremely low, and the current ratio of 2.08 indicates ample liquidity, reducing financial risk.
Bearish
- Net Loss in Q1 2026: Despite strong revenue growth, the company reported a net loss of $106.5 million in Q1 2026 due to a high tax expense and other items. This contrasts with positive net income in prior quarters and raises questions about earnings quality and sustainability.
- Recent Price Pullback and Momentum Divergence: The stock has declined 12.5% over the past three months and 5.8% over the past month, underperforming the S&P 500. This short-term weakness diverges from the strong one-year uptrend, potentially signaling profit-taking or consolidation.
- Dependence on Gold Price: Gold prices, while elevated, are volatile and subject to macroeconomic factors such as interest rates and currency movements. A sustained decline in gold prices could compress margins and reduce revenue, directly impacting the company's profitability.
- Limited Analyst Coverage and Liquidity: With only three analysts covering the stock, there is limited visibility and potential for information asymmetry. The short ratio of 2.38 days indicates moderate short interest, suggesting some bearish sentiment exists.
SSRM Technical Analysis
SSRM is in a strong uptrend over the past year, with a 1-year price change of +111.4%. The current price of $27.25 sits at 62% of its 52-week range ($11.70–$36.52), indicating the stock is in the upper half of its range but not overextended. This positioning suggests sustained bullish momentum, though the stock has pulled back from its 52-week high of $36.52, offering a potential entry point for trend followers. The 1-year relative strength versus SPY is +90.1%, confirming significant outperformance. Short-term momentum has turned negative, with a 1-month price change of -5.8% and a 3-month change of -12.5%, diverging from the strong 1-year uptrend. This divergence could signal a temporary pullback or consolidation within the broader uptrend, possibly driven by profit-taking after the recent rally. The 6-month change of +19.2% still shows positive medium-term momentum, suggesting the pullback may be a healthy correction rather than a reversal. The 52-week low of $11.70 provides strong support, while the 52-week high of $36.52 is the key resistance level. A breakout above $36.52 would signal a resumption of the uptrend and could target new highs, while a breakdown below $11.70 would be a severe bearish signal. The beta of 0.878 indicates the stock is slightly less volatile than the market, meaning it may not amplify market moves as much as higher-beta peers, which is favorable for risk management.
Beta
0.88
0.88x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-31.3%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$12-$37
Price range past year
Annual Return
+111.4%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | SSRM Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -5.8% | +0.6% |
| 3m | -12.5% | +6.3% |
| 6m | +19.2% | +9.1% |
| 1y | +111.4% | +20.9% |
| ytd | +26.6% | +10.7% |
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SSRM Fundamental Analysis
Revenue has shown strong growth, with Q1 2026 revenue of $581.8 million, up 83.8% year-over-year from $316.6 million in Q1 2025. This acceleration is driven by higher gold prices and increased production, with gold contributing $400.1 million (69%) of total revenue. The multi-quarter trend shows revenue growing from $184.8 million in Q2 2024 to $581.8 million in Q1 2026, indicating a robust growth trajectory. However, Q1 2026 net income was -$106.5 million, a loss due to a $309.9 million income before tax but a $59.8 million tax expense and other items, contrasting with positive net income in prior quarters. Gross margin improved to 61.3% in Q1 2026 from 47.4% in Q3 2025, reflecting operational leverage and higher gold prices. Operating margin was 52.5% in Q1 2026, up from 21.6% in Q3 2025, showing expanding profitability. Despite the net loss, the company's EBITDA of $341.4 million in Q1 2026 was strong, and the trailing twelve-month free cash flow was $482.3 million, indicating solid cash generation. The balance sheet is healthy with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.118, very low leverage, and a current ratio of 2.08, indicating ample liquidity. Free cash flow of $173.2 million in Q1 2026 was positive, and the company ended the quarter with $636.2 million in cash. The ROE of 11.5% is respectable, and the company generates sufficient cash to fund operations and growth internally, reducing reliance on external financing.
Quarterly Revenue
$581778000.0B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+83.8%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
61.3%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$482307514.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is SSRM Overvalued?
Since net income is positive on a trailing twelve-month basis (TTM net income of $181.5 million in Q4 2025), the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is 11.2x, while the forward P/E is 5.5x, implying the market expects significant earnings growth. The gap between trailing and forward P/E suggests strong growth expectations, consistent with the company's recent operational improvements and gold price tailwinds. Compared to the industry average P/E (not provided, but gold miners typically trade at 10-15x), SSRM's trailing P/E of 11.2x appears reasonable. The P/S ratio of 2.7x is below the sector median, indicating potential undervaluation relative to sales. The EV/EBITDA of 6.4x is also attractive for a gold miner. Historically, SSRM's trailing P/E has ranged from negative (losses) to over 60x in recent years. The current 11.2x is near the lower end of its historical range, suggesting the stock is not overvalued relative to its own past. This low multiple could indicate that the market is still pricing in some risk from the Copler mine sale or operational challenges, but it also presents a value opportunity if the company can sustain its improved earnings trajectory.
PE
11.2x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 4x~28x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
6.4x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: SSR Mining's Q1 2026 net loss of $106.5 million, despite strong revenue growth, highlights earnings volatility. The company's net income swung from a profit of $181.5 million in Q4 2025 to a loss, driven by a $59.8 million tax expense and other items. While the balance sheet is strong with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.118, the company's reliance on gold prices for revenue (69% from gold) exposes it to commodity price fluctuations. The trailing twelve-month free cash flow of $482.3 million is robust, but the Q1 loss raises questions about earnings quality.
Market & Competitive Risks: The stock's beta of 0.878 indicates slightly lower volatility than the market, but it is still sensitive to macroeconomic factors such as interest rates and gold prices. The recent 12.5% three-month decline suggests profit-taking after a strong rally. Competitive risks include other mid-tier gold producers with similar assets, and any operational disruptions at the Marigold or Seabee mines could impact production. The limited analyst coverage (3 analysts) may lead to less efficient pricing and higher information asymmetry.
Worst-Case Scenario: A sharp decline in gold prices combined with operational setbacks at key mines could lead to a significant stock price drop. The 52-week low of $11.70 represents a potential downside of 57% from the current price of $27.25. In this scenario, the company's earnings would deteriorate, and the market could re-rate the stock to a lower multiple, similar to its historical lows. The maximum drawdown of 31.28% over the past year indicates that such a decline is possible, though the strong balance sheet provides a cushion.