TXRH

Texas Roadhouse

$192.03

+1.34%
Jul 13, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Texas Roadhouse, Inc. operates a chain of casual dining restaurants primarily in the United States, offering steaks, ribs, seafood, and other American fare. As a leading player in the casual dining segment, the company differentiates itself through its 'Legendary Food, Legendary Service' brand promise and a strong value proposition relative to fast-casual alternatives. The current investor narrative centers on Texas Roadhouse benefiting from a consumer shift toward value-oriented sit-down dining, as evidenced by recent industry commentary highlighting traffic gains at casual-dining chains. Additionally, the stock has shown strong momentum in mid-2026, driven by positive sentiment around the broader restaurant sector and the company's consistent execution.

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TXRH 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $192.03
Average Target $192.03
High Target $220.83
Low Target $163.23

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Texas Roadhouse's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $249.64 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$249.64

4 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

4

covering this stock

Price Range

$154 - $250

Analyst target range

Buy
1 (25%)
Hold
2 (50%)
Sell
1 (25%)

Texas Roadhouse is covered by 4 analysts, with a consensus leaning bullish. The average estimated EPS is $10.94, with a range of $10.76 to $11.11. The average revenue estimate is $9.108 billion, with a range of $8.99 billion to $9.22 billion. The consensus recommendation is not explicitly provided, but the institutional ratings show a mix of Overweight, Buy, Neutral, and Hold ratings, with recent actions including upgrades from Truist Securities (Hold from Buy) and reiterations of Overweight from Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo. The average target price is not directly given, but based on the forward P/E of 24.81x and estimated EPS of $10.94, the implied target is approximately $271.40, representing 43% upside from the current price of $189.50. The high target (based on high EPS of $11.11 and forward P/E of 24.81x) would be $275.70, while the low target (low EPS of $10.76) would be $267.00. The wide range of analyst actions (from Hold to Overweight) suggests moderate conviction, but the overall sentiment is positive. The recent downgrade by Truist Securities may indicate some caution, but the majority of analysts remain bullish.

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TXRH Technical Analysis

Texas Roadhouse is in a sustained uptrend over the long term, with a 1-year price change of +1.67%, though this underperforms the S&P 500's 20.63% gain. The current price of $189.50 sits at 96.2% of its 52-week range ($153.83–$197.00), indicating the stock is near its highs and reflecting strong momentum. This positioning near the top of the range suggests bullish sentiment but also potential overextension, as the stock has rallied sharply from its May 2026 lows. Short-term momentum is robust, with 1-month and 3-month price changes of +15.38% and +15.77%, respectively, significantly outpacing the S&P 500's 4.07% and 11.11% gains over the same periods. This acceleration in momentum from the longer-term trend signals a potential trend reversal or mean reversion, as the stock has recovered from a 20.14% maximum drawdown earlier in 2026. The relative strength index (RSI) is not provided, but the strong price action suggests overbought conditions may be emerging. The 52-week low of $153.83 provides key support, while the 52-week high of $197.00 acts as resistance. A breakout above $197.00 would signal a continuation of the uptrend, while a breakdown below $153.83 could indicate a reversal. The stock's beta of 0.796 indicates it is less volatile than the market, meaning it tends to move less than the S&P 500, which is favorable for risk-averse investors.

Beta

0.80

0.80x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-20.0%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$154-$197

Price range past year

Annual Return

+2.1%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodTXRH ReturnS&P 500
1m+14.4%+1.0%
3m+16.9%+7.9%
6m+1.6%+8.5%
1y+2.1%+20.1%
ytd+12.1%+9.9%

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TXRH Fundamental Analysis

Texas Roadhouse's revenue trajectory shows steady growth, with the most recent quarterly revenue (Q4 2025) of $1.482 billion, representing a 3.07% year-over-year increase. However, this growth rate has decelerated from the 5.2% YoY growth seen in Q2 2025 ($1.512 billion) and the 5.4% growth in Q1 2025 ($1.448 billion). The multi-quarter trend indicates a slight deceleration, but revenue remains above $1.4 billion per quarter. Revenue segments are dominated by food and beverage sales ($1.474 billion in Q4 2025), with franchise fees and royalties contributing a small portion ($8.2 million combined). The growth trajectory supports a stable investment case, though investors should monitor for further deceleration. The company is profitable, with net income of $84.6 million in Q4 2025 and a gross margin of 10.7%, which is low relative to the industry average for casual dining (typically 15-20%). However, gross margins have improved from 10.7% in Q4 2025 to 17.5% in Q2 2025, indicating expansion. Operating margin was 7.1% in Q4 2025, up from 6.7% in Q3 2025, suggesting improving cost management. The net margin of 5.7% in Q4 2025 is modest but stable. Texas Roadhouse has a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.29, indicating moderate leverage, and a current ratio of 0.50, which suggests potential liquidity risk. However, free cash flow (TTM) of $730 million is strong, providing ample cash for operations and growth. The ROE of 27.8% is impressive, reflecting efficient use of equity. The company generates enough cash to fund its capital expenditures ($299 million in Q4 2025) and dividends ($44.9 million in Q4 2025), reducing dependence on external financing.

Quarterly Revenue

$1.5B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+3.07%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

10.70%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$730067000.0B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Food and Beverage
Franchise fees
Franchise royalties

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Valuation Analysis: Is TXRH Overvalued?

Since net income is positive, the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is 27.40x, while the forward P/E is 24.81x, indicating that the market expects earnings growth. The gap between trailing and forward P/E suggests a modest growth premium. Compared to the industry average P/E (not provided), Texas Roadhouse trades at a premium to the broader market (S&P 500 P/E ~20x), but this is justified by its strong profitability and growth. The P/S ratio of 1.89x is reasonable for a restaurant chain. Historically, Texas Roadhouse's trailing P/E has ranged from 17.5x (Q2 2022) to 34.7x (Q3 2024). The current 27.4x is near the middle of this range, suggesting it is not excessively overvalued. The P/B ratio of 7.60x is elevated, reflecting the company's high ROE. Overall, the valuation appears fair, with the forward P/E implying modest growth expectations.

PE

27.4x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Mid-Range

5-Year PE Range 17x~35x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

18.7x

Enterprise Value Multiple