United States Antimony Corporation
UAMY
$9.97
-5.05%
United States Antimony Corporation is a fully integrated mining, transportation, milling, smelting, and selling company operating in the Industrial Materials sector, with a primary focus on antimony and zeolite products. The company is a niche player and a domestic producer of antimony, a critical mineral, which provides it with a strategic identity in an industry dominated by foreign supply. The current investor narrative is driven by the stock's explosive price performance, likely tied to speculative interest in critical minerals and small-cap resource plays, as evidenced by its significant revenue growth and volatile trading patterns over the past year.…
UAMY
United States Antimony Corporation
$9.97
Investment Opinion: Should I buy UAMY Today?
Rating: Hold. The core thesis is that UAMY is a highly speculative, narrative-driven micro-cap with explosive potential but crippling fundamental flaws, making it unsuitable for most investors and appropriate only for aggressive, risk-tolerant speculators who can tolerate a total loss.
Supporting evidence for this cautious view includes its rich valuation (PS of 15.81, EV/Sales of 42.93), severe lack of profitability (TTM EPS -$0.007, Q4 net margin -11.05%), and dangerous cash burn (TTM FCF -$37.50M). While revenue growth is strong at 89.63% YoY, it is from a small base and highly volatile quarter-to-quarter. The single analyst's bullish 'Buy' ratings and $412 million revenue estimate provide a glimmer of hope, but this forecast is so far from current reality that it underscores the speculation involved.
The thesis would upgrade to a speculative Buy only if the company demonstrates consecutive quarters of positive gross margin and a clear path to operating cash flow breakeven, proving its business model is viable. It would downgrade to a Sell on any indication of financing difficulty, a sustained drop below the $6.35 level (implied by PS of 8.25), or a material deviation from its growth trajectory. Relative to its own volatile history and the fundamentals it currently presents, the stock is overvalued, as the price reflects a best-case scenario that is far from certain.
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UAMY 12-Month Price Forecast
UAMY is a binary, high-risk/high-reward speculation, not a fundamental investment. The neutral stance reflects the offsetting forces of a compelling strategic narrative and terrible current fundamentals. The path to the bull case requires flawless execution on an immense scale, while the path to the bear case is all too plausible given the cash burn and valuation. The stance would upgrade to bullish only upon clear, sustained evidence of margin improvement and a credible path to cash flow positivity. It would downgrade to bearish on any failure to meet near-term revenue targets or a breach of key technical support around $6.35.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on United States Antimony Corporation's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $12.96 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$12.96
1 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
1
covering this stock
Price Range
$8 - $13
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage is extremely limited, with only one analyst providing estimates, which typically indicates a small, under-followed micro-cap stock prone to higher volatility and less efficient price discovery. The single analyst projects substantial growth, with an estimated EPS of $0.44 and revenue of $412 million, but no consensus price target or recommendation distribution is available from the provided data. The institutional ratings history shows a pattern of consistent 'Buy' reiterations from firms like HC Wainwright & Co. and B. Riley Securities throughout 2025 and early 2026, indicating maintained bullish sentiment among the few covering firms. Without a defined target price range, the signal strength is weak; the wide gap between current fundamentals and analyst estimates underscores the high uncertainty and speculative nature of the investment thesis, reliant entirely on the company's ability to execute a dramatic operational turnaround and scale revenue massively.
Bulls vs Bears: UAMY Investment Factors
The bull case for UAMY is powered by its strategic position in critical minerals, explosive revenue growth potential, and clean balance sheet, all fueling a powerful technical uptrend. The bear case is anchored in severe profitability issues, massive cash burn, and a valuation that prices in flawless execution of astronomical growth. Currently, the bearish evidence holds stronger weight because the company's fundamental weaknesses—negative and volatile margins coupled with unsustainable cash burn—are concrete and present, while the bullish thesis is entirely forward-looking and speculative. The single most important tension in the investment debate is whether UAMY can achieve the analyst-projected $412 million in revenue (a ~30x increase from recent quarterly run-rates) before its cash runway expires or investor sentiment sours on its rich valuation.
Bullish
- Explosive Revenue Growth Trajectory: Q4 2025 revenue surged 89.63% year-over-year to $13.03 million, demonstrating the company's ability to scale its critical mineral operations. The single analyst projects revenue to reach $412 million, implying massive forward growth expectations that, if realized, would justify the current valuation.
- Strategic Position in Critical Minerals: As a domestic producer of antimony, a critical mineral, UAMY holds a unique strategic identity in a supply chain dominated by foreign sources. This narrative is a key driver of investor interest, as evidenced by the stock's 277.33% one-year price surge, reflecting speculative bets on supply chain security.
- Strong Technical Momentum and Trend: The stock is in a powerful uptrend, with a 1-month gain of +46.39% and a 3-month gain of +65.76%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500. Trading at $12.15, it remains well above its 52-week low of $1.94, indicating sustained bullish interest after a parabolic move.
- Clean Balance Sheet with Minimal Debt: The company has a negligible debt-to-equity ratio of 0.0013 and a strong current ratio of 5.38, indicating excellent liquidity and financial flexibility. This low leverage provides a cushion against operational volatility and reduces bankruptcy risk.
Bearish
- Severe and Volatile Profitability Issues: The company is deeply unprofitable, with a Q4 2025 net margin of -11.05% and a gross margin that swung from +23.14% in Q3 to -12.47% in Q4. This acute margin volatility and negative TTM EPS of -$0.007 highlight an unsustainable cost structure and operational inefficiencies.
- Massive Cash Burn and Negative Cash Flow: UAMY is burning cash at an alarming rate, with TTM free cash flow of -$37.50 million and Q4 operating cash flow of -$3.47 million. This necessitates heavy reliance on external financing, as seen in the $67.06 million net financing cash inflow in Q4, raising dilution and solvency concerns.
- Extremely Rich Valuation Relative to Fundamentals: With negative earnings, valuation relies on sales multiples. The trailing PS ratio of 15.81 and EV/Sales of 42.93 are exceptionally high for a company with negative margins. This valuation embeds near-perfect execution of the analyst's $412 million revenue forecast, leaving no room for error.
- Lumpy and Inconsistent Revenue Execution: Quarterly revenue has been highly volatile: $7.00M (Q1), $10.53M (Q2), $8.70M (Q3), $13.03M (Q4). This lumpiness is typical of small mining operations but undermines confidence in the company's ability to deliver steady, scalable growth required to justify its valuation.
UAMY Technical Analysis
The stock is in a powerful, sustained uptrend, evidenced by a staggering 1-year price change of +277.33%. With a current price of $12.15, it is trading at approximately 52% of its 52-week range ($1.94 to $19.71), indicating it has retreated significantly from its highs but remains well above its lows, suggesting a consolidation phase after a parabolic move. Recent momentum shows a strong acceleration, with a 1-month gain of +46.39% and a 3-month gain of +65.76%, both far outpacing the S&P 500's respective returns of +9.98% and +4.14%, signaling renewed bullish interest. This short-term surge contrasts with a more moderate 6-month gain of +50.56%, hinting at a potential second leg higher after a period of digestion. Key technical support is at the 52-week low of $1.94, while immediate resistance is at the 52-week high of $19.71; a breakout above $19.71 would signal a resumption of the primary bull trend. The stock's beta of 0.101 is exceptionally low, indicating it has traded with dramatically lower volatility than the broader market, though this metric may be distorted by its micro-cap status and illiquid trading history.
Beta
0.44
0.44x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-74.3%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$2-$20
Price range past year
Annual Return
+286.4%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | UAMY Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +7.3% | +8.2% |
| 3m | +34.9% | +9.0% |
| 6m | +35.1% | +10.5% |
| 1y | +286.4% | +26.5% |
| ytd | +68.1% | +8.9% |
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UAMY Fundamental Analysis
Revenue growth is highly volatile but showed a massive year-over-year surge of 89.63% in the most recent quarter (Q4 2025), reaching $13.03 million. However, examining the quarterly income statements reveals an inconsistent trajectory: revenue jumped from $7.00 million in Q1 2025 to $10.53 million in Q2, fell to $8.70 million in Q3, before the Q4 rebound, indicating lumpy sales execution typical of a small mining operation. The Antimony segment, contributing $17.71 million annually, is the clear primary growth driver. The company is currently unprofitable, posting a net loss of $286,905 in Q4 2025 and a trailing twelve-month EPS of -$0.007. Gross margin was deeply negative at -12.47% in Q4, a severe deterioration from the positive 23.14% gross margin in Q3, highlighting acute and volatile cost pressures. The net margin stands at -11.05%, and operating margin is -22.61%, reflecting a business model that is not yet sustainably profitable. The balance sheet shows minimal debt with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.0013, and a strong current ratio of 5.38 indicates good short-term liquidity. However, cash flow is a critical weakness: free cash flow for the TTM is a substantial negative $37.50 million, and operating cash flow in Q4 was -$3.47 million, meaning the company is burning cash and dependent on external financing (evidenced by $67.06 million in net financing cash flow in Q4) to fund operations and capital expenditures.
Quarterly Revenue
$13030629.0B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+0.89%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
-0.12%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$-37499477.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is UAMY Overvalued?
Given the negative net income and EBITDA, the primary valuation metric selected is the Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio. The trailing PS ratio is 15.81, while the forward PS, based on an estimated revenue of $412 million, would be significantly lower, implying the market is pricing in enormous revenue growth expectations. The EV/Sales ratio of 42.93 is even more elevated, reflecting the company's enterprise value relative to sales. Peer comparison is challenging due to the lack of provided industry averages, but the current PS of 15.81 appears rich for a company with negative and volatile margins. Historically, the stock's own PS ratio has fluctuated wildly, from a low near 8.25 in early 2024 to a high of 89.93 in early 2025. The current PS of 15.81 sits well below its extreme historical highs but above the lows seen during periods of negligible revenue, suggesting the valuation has compressed from peak speculative levels but still embeds significant growth expectations that must be realized.
PE
-143.0x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range -541x~356x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
-77.3x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks are severe and center on profitability and cash flow. The company posted a Q4 gross margin of -12.47%, indicating it is selling product at a loss, and a net margin of -11.05%. More critically, it burned $37.50 million in free cash flow over the TTM, with operating cash flow deeply negative at -$3.47 million in Q4 alone. This cash burn necessitates continuous external financing, posing a high risk of shareholder dilution through equity issuance. Revenue concentration in the volatile antimony segment and inconsistent quarterly sales execution further amplify operational risk.
Market & Competitive Risks are elevated due to valuation compression and speculative sentiment. Trading at a PS ratio of 15.81 and EV/Sales of 42.93, UAMY is valued as a hyper-growth company despite its current unprofitability. Any disappointment in revenue growth or margin improvement could trigger a severe multiple contraction. As a micro-cap with a beta of 0.101 (potentially distorted), it may be less correlated to broad markets but is highly susceptible to shifts in sentiment towards speculative resource stocks and 'critical mineral' narratives. Competitive pressures from larger, foreign antimony producers could also limit pricing power.
Worst-Case Scenario involves a failure to achieve projected growth, leading to a liquidity crisis and a collapse in speculative premium. If revenue growth stalls, margins remain negative, and financing becomes difficult, the stock could re-test its fundamental lows. The realistic downside is significant, potentially reaching the 52-week low of $1.94, which would represent an -84% loss from the current price of $12.15. A more measured bear-case target, considering historical PS lows near 8.25 applied to current sales, suggests a price near $6.35, implying a -48% downside. The chain of events would be a Q3/Q4 2026 earnings miss, a guidance withdrawal, and analyst downgrades, triggering a rapid exit by momentum traders.
FAQ
The key risks are, in order of severity: 1) Financial Risk: The company is burning cash at a rate of -$37.50 million TTM, risking dilution or insolvency if financing dries up. 2) Profitability Risk: Gross margins are deeply negative (-12.47% in Q4), calling the core business model into question. 3) Execution Risk: Revenue is lumpy and must scale nearly 30x to meet analyst estimates, a herculean task. 4) Valuation Risk: The rich PS ratio of 15.81 could collapse if growth stumbles, leading to massive capital loss. 5) Market Risk: As a speculative micro-cap, it is prone to extreme volatility and sentiment shifts.
The 12-month forecast is a wide range of outcomes due to the stock's binary nature. The base case (50% probability) sees the stock trading between $6.35 and $12.15 as it grapples with growth and profitability challenges. The bull case (20% probability) could see a run towards its 52-week high of $19.71 and beyond if execution is flawless. The bear case (30% probability) risks a fall to the $1.94 - $6.35 range if operations disappoint or financing fails. The most likely scenario is the base case of volatile, range-bound trading, as the company's fundamental turnaround will take longer than optimistic speculators hope.
Based on current fundamentals, UAMY is significantly overvalued. With a Price-to-Sales ratio of 15.81 and an EV/Sales ratio of 42.93, the market is valuing it as a high-growth tech company, not an unprofitable micro-cap miner. This valuation is only justified if the company achieves the analyst's projected $412 million in revenue and eventually turns profitable. Compared to its own historical PS range (8.25 to 89.93), the current 15.81 is above the low but well below the speculative peak, suggesting some compression has occurred but expectations remain elevated.
UAMY is not a 'good' stock to buy for most investors. It is a highly speculative, high-risk bet suitable only for those with a significant risk tolerance who can afford to lose their entire investment. The potential upside is substantial if the company hits its $412 million revenue target, but the downside is severe, with a realistic risk of falling -48% to -84% from current levels. It could be a good buy for a very small, speculative portion of a portfolio for an investor who believes strongly in the critical minerals narrative and has done deep due diligence on the company's operational plans.
UAMY is unsuitable for traditional long-term 'buy and hold' investing due to its unproven business model and high risk of permanent capital loss. It is primarily a vehicle for short-to-medium-term speculation. The extreme volatility (evidenced by a 277% 1-year gain) and lack of dividends make it a trading stock. A suggested minimum holding period does not apply; investors should be prepared to trade around news and technical levels. Any long-term investment would be a gamble on a multi-year transformation story that is currently far from certain.