USA Rare Earth
USAR
$18.45
+3.77%
USA Rare Earth Inc is a vertically integrated rare earth magnet supply chain company focused on developing domestic NdFeB magnet manufacturing and critical minerals processing capabilities in the United States. As a pioneer in establishing a U.S.-based mine-to-magnet supply chain, it occupies a strategically critical niche amid growing national security concerns over reliance on Chinese rare earth exports. The stock is currently driven by massive government funding and strategic acquisitions, including a $3.5 billion capital raise and a $2.8 billion acquisition, which have accelerated its production timeline but also introduced significant execution risk and shareholder dilution concerns.…
USAR
USA Rare Earth
$18.45
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USAR 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on USA Rare Earth's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $23.98 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$23.98
2 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
2
covering this stock
Price Range
$15 - $24
Analyst target range
Only 2 analysts cover the stock, with a consensus Buy rating (all recent ratings are Buy or Overweight). The average estimated EPS for the next fiscal year is $2.715, with a low of $1.80 and high of $4.04. Average estimated revenue is $3.23 billion, implying a massive ramp from current levels. The limited coverage suggests the stock is a small-cap with niche institutional interest, leading to higher volatility and less efficient price discovery. The wide range in estimates (revenue low $2.39B to high $4.44B) reflects high uncertainty about the timing and scale of production. The consensus implies a forward PE of 7.05x based on the average EPS estimate, which would be cheap if achieved, but execution risk is substantial. Recent ratings have been reaffirmed as Buy, with no downgrades, indicating analyst conviction in the long-term thesis despite near-term losses.
USAR Technical Analysis
The stock is in a volatile uptrend over the past year, with a 1-year price change of +82.03%, but has experienced a sharp pullback from its 52-week high of $43.98. As of July 2, 2026, the stock closed at $19.15, which is only 43.5% of its 52-week range (from low of $9.32 to high of $43.98), indicating it is trading near the lower end of its range after a significant correction. This positioning suggests the stock may be oversold or facing a loss of momentum, but could also represent a value entry if the long-term thesis holds. The 1-month price change is -37.62%, while the 3-month change is +20.29%, showing a sharp deceleration in short-term momentum. The 1-month decline contrasts sharply with the 1-year uptrend, signaling a potential trend reversal or a severe pullback within a broader uptrend. The relative strength versus the S&P 500 is -36.37% over 1 month, indicating significant underperformance. The stock's beta of 2.481 implies it is nearly 2.5 times more volatile than the market, amplifying both gains and losses. The 52-week low of $9.32 provides a support level, while the 52-week high of $43.98 is a resistance. A break below $9.32 would signal a breakdown, while a move above $43.98 would indicate a resumption of the uptrend. The high beta suggests that position sizing should be conservative to manage risk.
Beta
2.48
2.48x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-69.2%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$10-$44
Price range past year
Annual Return
+87.5%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | USAR Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -16.9% | +0.8% |
| 3m | +10.3% | +9.6% |
| 6m | +6.8% | +7.4% |
| 1y | +87.5% | +20.2% |
| ytd | +30.4% | +9.3% |
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USAR Fundamental Analysis
Revenue is highly erratic, with Q4 2025 reporting only $1.643 million, a sharp drop from Q3 2025's $312.489 million, which itself was a spike from zero revenue in prior quarters. The YoY growth rate is not meaningful due to the lumpy revenue pattern, but the Q3 2025 revenue surge was driven by a large contract or acquisition-related revenue. The company is not yet generating consistent recurring revenue, and the investment case hinges on future production from its magnet plant. Net income was -$50.205 million in Q4 2025, following a -$156.68 million loss in Q3 2025, though Q1 2025 had a positive net income of $51.832 million due to a one-time gain. Gross margin was 11.87% in Q4 2025, down from 81.48% in Q3 2025, indicating low profitability on core operations. The company is deeply unprofitable on an operating basis, with operating margin of -15.90% in Q4 2025. The balance sheet shows a current ratio of 10.17 and a debt-to-equity ratio of only 0.0062, indicating strong liquidity and minimal leverage. However, free cash flow was negative $27.898 million in Q4 2025, though trailing twelve-month free cash flow was positive $114.228 million, largely due to capital raises. ROE is -60.40%, reflecting significant shareholder dilution and losses. The company relies on external financing (equity and government funding) to fund operations, as evidenced by $256.382 million in net cash from financing in Q4 2025.
Quarterly Revenue
$1643000.0B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
N/A
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.11%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$114228000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
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Valuation Analysis: Is USAR Overvalued?
Since net income is negative (TTM net income of -$50.205 million), the trailing PE ratio is negative (-3.60) and not meaningful. Therefore, the primary valuation metric is the price-to-sales (PS) ratio, which stands at 709.95x trailing sales. The forward PE ratio is 574.56, implying the market expects a dramatic swing to profitability, but this is highly speculative. The PS ratio of 709.95x is astronomically high compared to the industrial materials industry average, which typically trades below 2x sales. This premium is not justified by current profitability but reflects the market's pricing of future government contracts and strategic value. Historically, the stock has traded at extreme valuations due to its pre-revenue stage; the current PS ratio is near the top of its historical range, as prior quarters had zero revenue. This suggests the market is pricing in optimistic expectations for future revenue growth from the magnet plant and government contracts.
PE
-3.6x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range -11845x~151x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
-2.7x
Enterprise Value Multiple

