US Foods
USFD
$102.35
+0.87%
US Foods is a leading domestic foodservice distributor, providing over 350,000 food and nonfood products to approximately 250,000 customer locations, including independent and chain restaurants, healthcare, hospitality, and education clients. As the second-largest broadline distributor in the U.S., it holds a 10% share of a highly fragmented industry, competing primarily with Sysco and Performance Food Group. The current investor narrative centers on the company's consistent revenue growth, margin expansion initiatives, and its ability to navigate a mixed demand environment, with recent quarterly results showing steady performance and a positive outlook for fiscal 2026.…
USFD
US Foods
$102.35
USFD 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on US Foods's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $105.75 and implied upside of +3.3% versus the current price.
Average Target
$105.75
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+3.3%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$61 - $120
Analyst target range
US Foods is covered by 16 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Buy' and a mean recommendation score of 1.625 (where 1 is Strong Buy and 5 is Sell). The average target price is $104.50, implying approximately 7.5% upside from the current price of $97.17. The distribution shows 5 Buy/Overweight ratings, 2 Neutral, and no Sell ratings, indicating a bullish consensus. The target range spans from a low of $61.00 to a high of $117.00. The high target of $117.00 assumes continued margin expansion and revenue growth, while the low target of $61.00 reflects potential downside from competitive pressures or economic downturn. The wide spread ($56) indicates significant uncertainty about the company's future performance. Recent analyst actions show mostly reaffirmations of existing ratings, with Piper Sandler downgrading from Overweight to Neutral in February 2026, but other firms like Barclays, Guggenheim, and Wells Fargo maintaining Overweight/Buy ratings. The overall sentiment remains positive, with no recent downgrades to Sell.
Bulls vs Bears: USFD Investment Factors
USFD presents a balanced risk/reward profile. The bull case is anchored by strong expected earnings growth (forward P/E of 17.75x, PEG of 0.56), improving gross margins, and a consensus Buy rating with 7.5% upside to the average target. The bear case highlights modest revenue growth (2.77% YoY), thin net margins (1.21%), and elevated debt levels. The single most important tension is whether the company can deliver the aggressive earnings growth implied by the forward P/E — if margins expand as expected, the stock is undervalued; if growth disappoints, the trailing P/E of 25.63x leaves downside risk. Currently, the bull case has stronger evidence given the PEG ratio and analyst support, but execution risk remains.
Bullish
- Strong Forward Earnings Growth: The forward P/E of 17.75x is significantly lower than the trailing P/E of 25.63x, implying the market expects over 40% earnings growth in the next year. This is supported by analyst EPS estimates of $8.09 for fiscal 2026, up from $2.96 in trailing twelve months.
- Attractive PEG Ratio: With a PEG ratio of 0.56, USFD appears undervalued relative to its expected earnings growth. A PEG below 1.0 typically indicates the stock is trading at a discount to its growth rate, suggesting upside potential.
- Consensus Analyst Buy Rating: 16 analysts rate USFD a Buy with a mean recommendation score of 1.625 (1=Strong Buy, 5=Sell). The average price target of $104.50 implies 7.5% upside from the current price of $97.17, with a high target of $117.00 offering 20.4% upside.
- Improving Gross Margin: Gross margin improved to 17.2% in Q1 2026 from 16.7% in the prior year quarter, driven by better product mix and cost controls. This trend supports profitability expansion even with modest revenue growth.
Bearish
- Elevated Trailing P/E: The trailing P/E of 25.63x is above the broader market average and the stock's historical median. While the forward P/E is lower, the current multiple leaves little room for error if growth disappoints.
- Modest Revenue Growth: Q1 2026 revenue grew only 2.77% year-over-year to $9.61 billion, a deceleration from the prior quarter's growth rate. The company's mature industry and 10% market share limit top-line expansion potential.
- Thin Net Margin: Net margin is just 1.21% in Q1 2026 and 1.71% trailing twelve months. This leaves the company vulnerable to cost inflation or pricing pressure, as small changes in costs can significantly impact earnings.
- High Debt-to-Equity Ratio: Debt-to-equity of 1.33x is elevated for a distribution company, increasing financial risk. Interest expense of $75 million in Q1 2026 consumed a significant portion of operating income.
USFD Technical Analysis
USFD is in a sustained uptrend, with the stock price up 18.76% over the past year, outperforming the S&P 500's 16.47% gain. The current price of $97.17 sits at 92.4% of its 52-week range ($69.88 to $105.17), indicating the stock is near the top of its range, reflecting strong momentum but also potential overextension. The 1-year relative strength of 2.29 versus the S&P 500 confirms the stock's relative outperformance. Short-term momentum shows a mixed picture: the 1-month price change is +1.91%, while the 3-month change is +4.26%, both positive but decelerating from the 6-month gain of 19.56%. This divergence suggests a consolidation phase after a strong rally, with the stock pulling back from its 52-week high of $105.17 in early July. The RSI is not provided, but the recent price action shows a decline from the July high, indicating short-term weakness. The stock's beta of 0.794 indicates it is less volatile than the market, which is typical for a defensive food distributor. Key support is at the 52-week low of $69.88, while resistance is at the 52-week high of $105.17. A breakout above $105.17 would signal a continuation of the uptrend, while a breakdown below $69.88 would indicate a bearish reversal. The current price is well above support, suggesting a healthy pullback within an uptrend.
Beta
0.79
0.79x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-21.1%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$70-$105
Price range past year
Annual Return
+23.5%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | USFD Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -0.1% | -1.6% |
| 3m | +9.5% | +1.5% |
| 6m | +22.4% | +5.4% |
| 1y | +23.5% | +14.8% |
| ytd | +37.1% | +7.0% |
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USFD Fundamental Analysis
US Foods reported Q1 2026 revenue of $9.61 billion, up 2.77% year-over-year, continuing a trend of steady growth. Over the past four quarters, revenue has ranged from $9.35 billion to $10.18 billion, with the most recent quarter showing a slight deceleration from the prior year's Q4 growth rate. The company's revenue segments are diversified, with Product One (likely center-of-plate items) contributing $3.41 billion, followed by Product Two ($1.66 billion) and Product Three ($1.64 billion). The growth trajectory is moderate but consistent, supported by a resilient foodservice demand environment. The company is profitable, with Q1 2026 net income of $116 million and a net margin of 1.21%. Gross margin improved to 17.2% from 16.7% in the prior year quarter, driven by better product mix and cost controls. Operating margin was 2.25%, up from 2.45% in Q1 2025, showing slight compression. Over the trailing twelve months, net income totaled $677 million, with a net margin of 1.71%, indicating stable profitability. The balance sheet shows a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.33, which is manageable for a distribution company. Free cash flow for Q1 2026 was $196 million, and trailing twelve-month free cash flow was $848 million, providing ample liquidity for debt service and share repurchases. The current ratio of 1.16 indicates adequate short-term liquidity. ROE is 15.7%, reflecting efficient use of equity capital.
Quarterly Revenue
$9.6B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+2.8%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
17.2%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$848000000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is USFD Overvalued?
Since US Foods has positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is 25.63x, while the forward P/E is 17.75x, implying the market expects significant earnings growth in the next year. The gap between trailing and forward P/E suggests a forward earnings growth rate of over 40%, which is aggressive but supported by analyst estimates. Compared to the industry average (not provided), USFD's P/E of 25.63x appears elevated relative to the broader market, but the forward P/E of 17.75x is more reasonable. The PEG ratio of 0.56 suggests the stock is undervalued relative to its expected earnings growth. Historically, USFD's trailing P/E has ranged from 14.5x to 60.2x over the past few years. The current 25.63x is near the middle of this range, indicating it is not excessively overvalued. The P/S ratio of 0.44x is low, reflecting the company's thin margins typical of distribution businesses. The EV/EBITDA of 13.82x is within a reasonable range for the industry.
PE
25.6x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range 14x~45x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
13.8x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: USFD's thin net margin of 1.21% in Q1 2026 makes earnings highly sensitive to cost inflation or pricing pressure. The debt-to-equity ratio of 1.33x is elevated, with $75 million in quarterly interest expense consuming 35% of operating income. Revenue growth is modest at 2.77% YoY, limiting the ability to absorb cost shocks. Free cash flow of $848 million TTM provides a buffer, but any margin compression could quickly erode profitability.
Market & Competitive Risks: USFD operates in a highly fragmented industry with intense competition from Sysco and Performance Food Group. The stock's beta of 0.794 is below market, but valuation compression risk exists if the forward P/E of 17.75x fails to materialize. The wide analyst target range ($61-$117) reflects uncertainty. Macroeconomic headwinds, such as a slowdown in restaurant traffic, could pressure revenue. The stock is near its 52-week high, making it vulnerable to profit-taking.
Worst-Case Scenario: A severe economic downturn could reduce restaurant demand, causing revenue to decline and margins to compress. If USFD fails to achieve expected earnings growth, the trailing P/E of 25.63x could contract toward historical lows. The worst-case downside is to the analyst low target of $61.00, representing a 37% decline from the current price of $97.17. The 52-week low of $69.88 offers a more conservative downside of 28%.

