Autodesk
ADSK
$217.90
-8.26%
Autodesk Inc. is a multinational software corporation that develops computer-aided design (CAD) and building information modeling (BIM) software for the architecture, engineering, construction, manufacturing, and media & entertainment industries. As a pioneer in CAD with its flagship AutoCAD product, Autodesk holds a dominant market position in design software, serving iconic projects like the Burj Khalifa and films such as Avatar. The current investor narrative centers on the company's transition to a subscription-based cloud platform, with recent earnings beats and raised guidance highlighting robust demand, yet concerns persist about near-term execution and the pace of its AI-driven innovation strategy.…
ADSK
Autodesk
$217.90
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy ADSK Today?
Based on the analysis, ADSK is rated a Buy. The consensus recommendation is Strong Buy with an average target of $314.57, implying 20.7% upside. The thesis is that accelerating revenue growth (18.4% YoY) and high margins (91% gross) will drive earnings growth, justifying the premium valuation.
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ADSK 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is bullish with medium confidence. Autodesk's accelerating revenue growth and discounted forward valuation suggest upside potential. However, the high trailing PE and negative relative strength warrant caution. If the company can demonstrate tangible AI-driven revenue contributions, the stock could re-rate higher. Conversely, any signs of growth deceleration would undermine the thesis. I would upgrade to high confidence if revenue growth exceeds 20% for two consecutive quarters, and downgrade to neutral if growth falls below 12%.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Autodesk's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $315.37 and implied upside of +44.7% versus the current price.
Average Target
$315.37
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+44.7%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$221 - $456
Analyst target range
Autodesk is covered by 34 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Strong Buy' (mean rating of 1.5). The average target price is $314.57, implying a 20.7% upside from the current price of $260.66. The distribution leans heavily bullish, with no sell ratings and a majority of buy/overweight ratings, reflecting confidence in the company's growth trajectory. The target price range spans from $220.50 (low) to $456.00 (high), indicating a wide dispersion of expectations. The high target assumes continued subscription growth and successful AI integration, while the low target reflects concerns about competition and macroeconomic headwinds. Recent ratings from firms like Rosenblatt, RBC Capital, and Morgan Stanley have maintained or reiterated positive stances, reinforcing the bullish sentiment.
Bulls vs Bears: ADSK Investment Factors
Autodesk presents a classic growth-vs-valuation debate. The bull case is anchored by accelerating revenue growth (18.4% YoY), strong analyst support (20.7% upside), and high margins (91% gross). However, the bear case highlights a rich trailing PE (47.9x vs. industry 25x), persistent underperformance (relative strength -28.2% over 1Y), and leverage (D/E 0.90). Currently, the bull case has stronger evidence given the recent earnings beat and raised guidance, but the key tension is whether the company can sustain double-digit growth to justify its valuation. If growth decelerates below 15%, the stock could face significant de-rating.
Bullish
- Accelerating Revenue Growth: Q1 FY2027 revenue grew 18.4% YoY to $1.934B, up from 8.0% growth in the prior-year quarter, indicating strong demand across AEC and AutoCAD segments. This acceleration suggests the subscription transition is gaining momentum.
- Strong Analyst Consensus: With a Strong Buy rating (mean 1.5) and average target of $314.57, analysts see 20.7% upside from the current price of $260.66. No sell ratings and a high target of $456.00 reflect confidence in the growth story.
- High Gross Margins: Gross margin stands at 91.0%, reflecting the scalability of the software model. This high margin provides a strong foundation for profitability and cash flow generation.
- Robust Free Cash Flow: TTM free cash flow is $2.729B, supporting continued investment in AI and cloud initiatives. This cash generation reduces reliance on external financing and enhances financial flexibility.
Bearish
- High Trailing PE: Trailing PE of 47.9x is 92% above the software industry average of 25x, indicating a premium valuation that leaves little room for error. If growth disappoints, multiple compression could be severe.
- Negative Relative Strength: Over the past year, ADSK has underperformed the S&P 500 by 28.2 percentage points (relative strength -28.2%), and YTD by -21.9%. This persistent underperformance may reflect structural concerns.
- Elevated Debt-to-Equity: Debt-to-equity ratio of 0.90 indicates significant leverage, which could amplify downside in a rising-rate environment. Interest coverage is adequate but not excessive.
- Low Current Ratio: Current ratio of 0.85 suggests potential liquidity constraints, as current liabilities exceed current assets. This could limit flexibility in adverse scenarios.
ADSK Technical Analysis
Autodesk's stock is in a recovery phase after a significant drawdown, with the current price of $260.66 sitting 20.8% above its 52-week low of $185.50 but still 20.8% below the 52-week high of $329.09. The 1-year price change is -9.65%, indicating a net decline, but the stock has rebounded strongly from its June lows, suggesting a potential trend reversal. The price is currently at 79.2% of its 52-week range, reflecting a recovery from oversold conditions but still below prior highs, which may indicate room for further upside if momentum persists.
Beta
1.30
1.30x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-42.6%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$186-$329
Price range past year
Annual Return
-31.9%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | ADSK Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -9.2% | +0.1% |
| 3m | -5.2% | +4.4% |
| 6m | -16.5% | +14.6% |
| 1y | -31.9% | +18.6% |
| ytd | -24.0% | +12.9% |
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ADSK Fundamental Analysis
Autodesk's revenue growth is accelerating, with the most recent quarter (Q1 FY2027, ending April 30, 2026) showing revenue of $1.934 billion, up 18.4% year-over-year, compared to 8.0% growth in the prior year quarter. This acceleration is driven by strong performance across segments, particularly Architecture, Engineering and Construction (AEC) at $970 million, and AutoCAD family at $474 million, which together represent 74.6% of total revenue. The company's transition to subscription and cloud offerings is fueling this growth, though the media & entertainment segment remains a smaller contributor at $86 million.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.9B
2026-04
Revenue YoY Growth
+18.4%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
91.0%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$2.7B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is ADSK Overvalued?
Given Autodesk's positive net income, the PE ratio is the primary valuation metric. The trailing PE is 47.9x, while the forward PE is 18.3x, implying the market expects significant earnings growth, with a PEG ratio of 22.5x suggesting that growth is already priced in. Compared to the software industry average PE of 25x, Autodesk trades at a 92% premium on trailing earnings, but the forward PE is at a 27% discount, reflecting expectations of rapid EPS expansion. Historically, the stock's PE has ranged from 25x to 152x over the past five years, and the current trailing PE of 47.9x is near the lower end of that range, suggesting a more reasonable valuation relative to its own history.
PE
47.9x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 25x~97x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
30.2x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial risks include a high debt-to-equity ratio of 0.90, which could strain cash flows if interest rates rise. The current ratio of 0.85 indicates potential liquidity pressure, though strong free cash flow of $2.729B provides a buffer. Revenue concentration in AEC and AutoCAD (74.6% of total) exposes the company to cyclical downturns in construction and manufacturing. The trailing PE of 47.9x leaves limited margin for error; any earnings miss could trigger a sharp de-rating. Additionally, the PEG ratio of 22.5x suggests that growth expectations are already priced in, leaving little room for upside surprises.
FAQ
Key risks include: 1) Valuation risk - trailing PE of 47.9x could compress if growth slows. 2) Financial risk - debt-to-equity of 0.90 and current ratio of 0.85 indicate leverage and liquidity concerns. 3) Competitive risk - AI-driven design tools could disrupt market share. 4) Macro risk - economic downturns in construction and manufacturing could reduce demand. The most severe risk is a growth deceleration below 10%, which could lead to a 28.8% drop to the 52-week low.
The 12-month forecast is moderately bullish. The base case (50% probability) targets $260.66-$314.57, with the stock likely reaching the average analyst target of $314.57. The bull case (30% probability) targets $314.57-$456.00, assuming sustained growth above 20%. The bear case (20% probability) targets $185.50-$220.50, if growth decelerates. The most likely scenario is the base case, driven by continued subscription growth and stable macro conditions.
ADSK is fairly valued on a forward basis but overvalued on trailing earnings. The forward PE of 18.3x is 27% below the industry average, suggesting the market expects significant EPS growth. However, the trailing PE of 47.9x is 92% above the industry, indicating that the current earnings do not justify the price. The PEG ratio of 22.5x implies that growth is already priced in. Overall, the valuation is reasonable if the company meets growth expectations, but there is little margin for error.
ADSK is a good buy for investors with a long-term horizon and tolerance for volatility. The stock offers 20.7% upside to the average analyst target of $314.57, and the forward PE of 18.3x is attractive relative to the industry. However, the trailing PE of 47.9x and negative relative strength (-28.2% over 1Y) indicate risks. If you believe in the company's growth trajectory and AI strategy, it is a compelling buy; otherwise, consider waiting for a pullback.
ADSK is more suitable for long-term investment due to its growth stage and volatility. The stock has a beta that is not provided, but its 1-year price change of -9.65% and max drawdown of -42.56% indicate significant volatility. The company is investing heavily in AI and cloud, which may take time to yield returns. A minimum holding period of 3-5 years is recommended to ride out short-term fluctuations and benefit from the subscription transition. Short-term traders may find opportunities around earnings, but the stock's volatility makes it risky for short-term speculation.