Autodesk Inc
ADSK
$0.00
+0.09%
Autodesk Inc is a multinational software company providing design software for architecture, construction, manufacturing, and media & entertainment. It is a pioneer in computer-aided design (CAD) and holds a dominant position with its industry-standard AutoCAD product.
ADSK
Autodesk Inc
$0.00
Investment Opinion: Should I buy ADSK Today?
Based on a synthesis of the data, the objective assessment is a Hold rating with a bias towards accumulation for long-term investors. The unanimous positive analyst sentiment and strong underlying fundamentals (19.8% revenue growth, 15.6% net margin) support the business quality. However, the severe technical breakdown, high trailing P/E of 47.9, and near-term liquidity concerns warrant caution, suggesting investors wait for either a more attractive entry point or clearer signs of a technical bottom before establishing new full positions.
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ADSK 12-Month Price Forecast
The data suggests a fundamentally sound company caught in a valuation and sentiment downdraft. The path forward is highly dependent on broader market conditions and the company's ability to maintain its premium growth rate.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Autodesk Inc's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $0.00 and implied upside of — versus the current price.
Average Target
$0.00
10 analysts
Implied Upside
—
vs. current price
Analyst Count
10
covering this stock
Price Range
$0 - $0
Analyst target range
Wall Street analyst sentiment remains broadly positive, with recent actions from ten major firms all reiterating Buy, Overweight, or Outperform ratings. No sufficient analyst coverage data regarding specific price targets or ratings distribution is available in the provided inputs.
Bulls vs Bears: ADSK Investment Factors
Autodesk presents a classic growth vs. valuation tension. Its strong fundamentals, market dominance, and cash generation are offset by a severe price decline and elevated trailing multiples. The stock is technically depressed but fundamentally sound.
Bullish
- Dominant Market Position: Industry leader in CAD software with flagship AutoCAD product.
- Strong Revenue Growth: Q4 revenue grew 19.8% YoY, showing robust demand.
- High Profitability & Cash Flow: Net margin of 15.6% and strong $2.4B TTM free cash flow.
- Attractive Forward Valuation: Forward P/E of 17.0 suggests reasonable valuation for growth.
Bearish
- Severe Technical Downtrend: Stock down 25.4% over 6 months, underperforming SPY significantly.
- Elevated Trailing Valuation: Trailing P/E of 47.9 and P/S of 7.47 are high.
- Liquidity & Leverage Concerns: Current ratio of 0.85 indicates short-term liquidity constraints.
- High Beta & Market Sensitivity: Beta of 1.47 implies higher volatility than the market.
ADSK Technical Analysis
The stock's overall trend has been significantly negative over the last six months, with the price declining from around $320 in early October 2025 to $239.4 by March 31, 2026, representing a 6-month decline of 25.4%. Short-term performance shows continued weakness, with the stock down 19.12% over the last three months and 2.63% over the last month, underperforming the broader market (SPY) significantly in both periods. The current price of $239.4 is near the lower end of its 52-week range of $215.01 to $329.09, sitting approximately 27.2% below the high and 11.3% above the low, indicating the stock is in a depressed technical position.
Beta
1.43
1.43x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-33.1%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$215-$329
Price range past year
Annual Return
-11.1%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | ADSK Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -6.0% | -4.3% |
| 3m | -17.0% | -4.0% |
| 6m | -25.3% | -2.0% |
| 1y | -11.1% | +22.2% |
| ytd | -17.0% | -3.8% |
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ADSK Fundamental Analysis
Revenue growth remains strong, with the latest quarterly revenue of $1.957 billion showing a 19.84% year-over-year increase, and sequential growth from the prior quarter's $1.853 billion. Profitability is solid, with a net income of $316 million in Q4 FY26 and a trailing net margin of 15.6%, though operating margins have shown some quarterly fluctuation. Financial health is mixed, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.90 indicating moderate leverage, but a current ratio of 0.85 suggests potential short-term liquidity constraints; however, the company generates robust free cash flow, with $2.402 billion TTM. Operational efficiency is highlighted by a strong return on equity of 36.9% and a return on assets of 9.7%, demonstrating effective use of shareholder capital and assets.
Quarterly Revenue
$2.0B
2026-01
Revenue YoY Growth
+0.19%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.92%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$2.4B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is ADSK Overvalued?
Given the company's positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E ratio is elevated at 47.9, while the forward P/E is a more reasonable 17.0, suggesting the market is pricing in significant future earnings growth. The Price-to-Sales ratio of 7.47 and EV/Sales of 7.03 are also key metrics for this software company; peer comparison data is not available in the provided inputs to assess these multiples relative to the industry.
PE
47.9x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 40x~154x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
30.2x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
The primary financial risk is liquidity, with a current ratio of 0.85 below the ideal threshold of 1.0, indicating potential difficulty covering short-term obligations despite strong cash flow. Moderate leverage (Debt/Equity of 0.90) adds financial risk in a rising interest rate environment. Market and operational risks are significant; the stock's high beta (1.47) suggests it is 47% more volatile than the broader market, which is evident in its severe underperformance relative to the SPY over the past year. Furthermore, Autodesk's end markets (construction, manufacturing) are cyclical and sensitive to economic downturns, posing a demand risk. The lack of a dividend also reduces the cushion for total return during periods of price depreciation.
FAQ
Key risks include: 1) High stock price volatility (Beta 1.47), 2) Short-term liquidity constraints (Current Ratio 0.85), 3) Exposure to cyclical end markets like construction and manufacturing, and 4) Execution risk in maintaining its high revenue growth rate of nearly 20% to justify its valuation. The stock has also significantly underperformed the market (SPY) over the past year.
Based on the provided data, the 12-month outlook has a base case target range of $250-$290 (50% probability), a bull case of $300-$329 (30%), and a bear case of $215-$240 (20%). The forecast centers on the stock recovering from its depressed technical position as its strong fundamentals, including 19.8% revenue growth and $2.4B in free cash flow, are recognized by the market.
The valuation picture is mixed. ADSK appears overvalued based on its trailing P/E of 47.9 and Price/Sales of 7.47. However, it looks more reasonably valued—or potentially undervalued for its growth—on a forward P/E basis of 17.0. The 25% price decline over six months has compressed multiples, moving the stock from clear overvaluation to a more balanced risk/reward.
ADSK is a good stock for long-term investors seeking exposure to a dominant design software franchise, but timing is crucial. At a forward P/E of 17.0 and near its 52-week low, the valuation is more reasonable. However, given its high beta of 1.47 and ongoing technical weakness, it may be prudent to accumulate shares gradually rather than making a large lump-sum investment.
ADSK is far more suitable for a long-term investment horizon. Its short-term price action is highly volatile and negative, down 19% in 3 months. Long-term investors can look through this volatility to the company's durable competitive advantages, high returns on equity (36.9%), and strong cash flow generation. Short-term traders face significant downside risk given the current technical breakdown.