CommVault Systems
CVLT
$129.20
-6.05%
CommVault Systems, Inc. is a leading provider of cyber resiliency solutions, offering data protection, cyber recovery, and identity resilience through its cloud-native platform, Commvault Cloud. The company serves enterprises across on-premises, hybrid, multi-cloud, and SaaS environments, positioning itself as a critical player in the rapidly evolving cybersecurity and data management landscape. Currently, the stock is under scrutiny as it navigates a significant post-earnings volatility, with a sharp decline from its 52-week high, while analysts remain optimistic about its long-term growth prospects in the cyber resilience market. The company's transition to subscription-based offerings and its focus on AI-driven data security are key narratives driving investor attention.…
CVLT
CommVault Systems
$129.20
CVLT 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on CommVault Systems's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $160.90 and implied upside of +24.5% versus the current price.
Average Target
$160.90
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+24.5%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$130 - $200
Analyst target range
The stock is covered by 16 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Buy' and a mean recommendation score of 1.89 (where 1 is Strong Buy and 5 is Sell). The average target price is $160.90, implying an upside of 18.0% from the current price of $136.40. The distribution of ratings is not provided, but the consensus leans bullish, with recent actions from firms like Stephens & Co. (Overweight) and Mizuho (Outperform) indicating positive sentiment. The target price range is $130.00 to $200.00, with the low target suggesting a potential downside of 4.7% and the high target implying a 46.6% upside. The wide spread between the low and high targets (70 points) indicates significant uncertainty among analysts regarding the company's future performance. The high target likely assumes successful execution of the company's growth strategy, including continued adoption of its cloud platform and margin expansion, while the low target may reflect concerns about competitive pressures or a slowdown in enterprise IT spending. Recent ratings have been stable, with no major downgrades, but the stock's high volatility and the recent sharp decline from its 52-week high suggest that analysts are closely monitoring the company's ability to sustain its growth trajectory.
Bulls vs Bears: CVLT Investment Factors
The bull case is supported by strong revenue growth, high gross margins, and a solid balance sheet, while the bear case highlights valuation concerns, thin margins, and high volatility. Currently, the bull case has stronger evidence given the accelerating growth and analyst optimism, but the key tension is whether the company can expand operating margins to justify its premium valuation. If margins improve as expected, the stock could re-rate higher; if growth decelerates, the stock could face significant downside.
Bullish
- Accelerating Revenue Growth: Q4 FY2026 revenue grew 13.33% YoY to $311.69M, with a multi-quarter trend from $224.67M in Q1 FY2025 to $311.69M in Q4 FY2026, indicating strong demand for cyber resiliency solutions.
- High Gross Margin: Gross margin stands at 80.57% (Q4 FY2026), reflecting the scalability of the software business and strong pricing power, which supports future profitability expansion.
- Analyst Consensus Buy: With 16 analysts, the consensus is 'Buy' (mean score 1.89), and the average target price of $160.90 implies an 18.0% upside from the current price of $136.40.
- Strong Balance Sheet: The company holds $899.99M in cash with a current ratio of 1.95, providing ample liquidity for operations and strategic investments, while FCF TTM is $237.15M.
Bearish
- High Valuation Premium: Trailing PE is 48.38x, and EV/Sales is 4.77x, both above industry averages, suggesting the market is pricing in significant growth that may not materialize.
- Thin Operating Margin: Operating margin is only 11.31% (Q4 FY2026), and net margin is 4.70%, indicating heavy investment in sales and marketing that could pressure profitability if growth slows.
- Elevated Debt-to-Equity: Debt-to-equity ratio is 122.43%, which is high for a software company, increasing financial risk, especially if interest rates remain elevated.
- High Volatility: The stock has a 1-year price change of -27.35% and a max drawdown of -61.53%, indicating significant price swings that could deter risk-averse investors.
CVLT Technical Analysis
The stock is currently in a recovery phase after a significant drawdown, with a 1-year price change of -27.35%, indicating a substantial decline from its peak. The current price of $136.40 sits at approximately 68.8% of its 52-week range (low of $71.75, high of $198.18), suggesting it is trading in the lower-middle portion of its yearly range. This positioning implies that while the stock has recovered from its lows, it still faces overhead resistance and has not yet regained the momentum seen earlier in the year. The 6-month price change of +60.32% shows a strong rebound from the March lows, but the 1-year negative return highlights the volatility and the challenges the stock has faced.
Beta
0.80
0.80x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-61.5%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$72-$198
Price range past year
Annual Return
-30.8%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | CVLT Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +9.7% | +2.0% |
| 3m | +6.9% | +1.0% |
| 6m | +46.8% | +11.8% |
| 1y | -30.8% | +18.1% |
| ytd | +4.0% | +11.7% |
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CVLT Fundamental Analysis
Revenue growth has been robust, with the most recent quarter (Q4 FY2026) showing revenue of $311.69 million, a 13.33% YoY increase. This growth is driven by the subscription segment, which contributed $207.58 million, representing 66.6% of total revenue, while perpetual licenses and customer support services made up the remainder. The multi-quarter trend shows accelerating growth, with revenue increasing from $224.67 million in Q1 FY2025 to $311.69 million in Q4 FY2026, indicating a strong demand for the company's cyber resiliency solutions. The company's profitability has improved, with net income of $14.65 million in Q4 FY2026, up from $11.02 million in the same quarter last year, and gross margin remains high at 80.57%, reflecting the scalability of its software business. However, operating margin is relatively thin at 11.31%, and net margin is just 4.70%, indicating that the company is investing heavily in sales and marketing to drive growth. The balance sheet is solid, with a current ratio of 1.95 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 122.43%, which is elevated but manageable given the company's strong cash flow generation. Free cash flow for the trailing twelve months was $237.15 million, and the company has $899.99 million in cash, providing ample liquidity for operations and strategic investments.
Quarterly Revenue
$311692000.0B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+13.3%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
80.6%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$237151000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is CVLT Overvalued?
Given the company's positive net income, the PE ratio is the primary valuation metric. The trailing PE is 48.38x, while the forward PE is 21.99x, indicating that the market expects significant earnings growth in the coming year. The gap between trailing and forward PE suggests that the market is pricing in a substantial improvement in profitability, which is supported by the company's revenue growth and margin expansion initiatives. Compared to the industry average, the stock trades at a premium, with a PS ratio of 2.89x versus the industry average of 2.89x (from valuation data), which is roughly in line. However, the EV/Sales ratio of 4.77x is higher than the industry average, suggesting a premium valuation. The PEG ratio is negative at -6.48, indicating that the earnings growth rate is expected to be negative or the ratio is not meaningful due to the company's current earnings volatility. Historically, the stock's PE ratio has ranged from a low of 8.69x in Q4 FY2024 to a high of 470.69x in Q2 FY2022, and the current trailing PE of 48.38x is within the mid-range of this historical band, suggesting that the stock is not excessively overvalued relative to its own history.
PE
48.4x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 9x~200x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
32.4x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial risks include a high debt-to-equity ratio of 122.43%, which could strain cash flows if interest rates rise, and a thin operating margin of 11.31% that leaves little room for error. The company's net margin is just 4.70%, indicating that profitability is sensitive to cost increases or revenue shortfalls. However, with $899.99M in cash and strong FCF of $237.15M, liquidity is adequate to manage short-term obligations.