Famous Dave's
DAVE
$365.26
-15.09%
Dave Inc. is a financial technology company that operates a mobile banking app offering services such as fee-free banking, overdraft protection, short-term liquidity, credit building, and financial management tools. Positioned as a disruptor in the neobanking space, Dave targets underbanked consumers with a focus on financial accessibility and transparency. The current investor narrative centers on the company's rapid revenue growth, dramatic improvement in profitability, and the successful scaling of its subscription-based model, which has driven the stock's exceptional performance over the past year. Recent analyst actions, including multiple Buy and Outperform ratings, underscore growing confidence in Dave's ability to sustain its momentum and expand its market share.…
DAVE
Famous Dave's
$365.26
Investment Opinion: Should I buy DAVE Today?
Based on the analysis, DAVE is rated a Buy. The thesis is that Dave's rapid revenue growth (46.7% YoY) and exceptional margin expansion (net margin 36.6%) are not fully reflected in its valuation, with a PEG of 0.07 and trailing PE of 15.1x. The analyst consensus of Buy with an average target of $389.5 supports this view, implying 4.5% upside. Key supporting data points include: revenue growth of 46.7%, operating margin of 37.6%, free cash flow of $326.5M, and a low PEG ratio. However, the stock's high beta (3.83) and recent price weakness (down 4.95% in the last month) suggest near-term volatility. This Buy rating would be downgraded to Hold if revenue growth falls below 30% or if the forward PE exceeds 25x. Conversely, it could be upgraded if the stock pulls back to below $300 while fundamentals remain strong. Overall, DAVE appears undervalued relative to its growth potential, but investors should be prepared for significant price swings.
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DAVE 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI model assesses DAVE as bullish with medium confidence. The company's strong fundamental performance, including accelerating revenue and high profitability, supports a positive outlook. However, the extreme volatility (beta 3.83) and recent price weakness introduce uncertainty. The stance would be upgraded to high confidence if revenue growth exceeds 50% in the next quarter, and downgraded to neutral if growth falls below 30% or if margins compress significantly.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Famous Dave's's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $391.27 and implied upside of +7.1% versus the current price.
Average Target
$391.27
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+7.1%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$260 - $485
Analyst target range
The target price range spans from a low of $260.00 to a high of $485.00, reflecting a wide dispersion of expectations. The high target of $485 implies a 30.2% upside, suggesting that some analysts see significant room for growth, likely driven by continued revenue acceleration and margin expansion. The low target of $260 implies a 30.2% downside, indicating concerns about potential competitive pressures or a slowdown in growth. The wide spread between the low and high targets (225 points) signals elevated uncertainty about Dave's future performance, which is typical for high-growth fintech names. Recent institutional ratings have been consistently positive, with no downgrades observed, reinforcing the bullish sentiment.
Bulls vs Bears: DAVE Investment Factors
Dave presents a compelling growth story with accelerating revenue, dramatic profitability improvements, and strong cash flow, supported by bullish analyst sentiment. However, extreme volatility, high beta, and a forward PE that is higher than trailing PE introduce significant risk. The bull case is currently stronger given the fundamental momentum and low PEG, but the stock's recent underperformance and high short interest warrant caution. The key tension is whether Dave can sustain its 40%+ revenue growth and margin expansion to justify its valuation, or if competitive pressures and market saturation will cause growth to decelerate sharply.
Bullish
- Revenue growth accelerating: Q1 2026 revenue of $158.4M grew 46.7% YoY, up from $107.98M in Q1 2025. Sequential growth from Q4 2025's $163.7M shows sustained momentum, with revenue nearly doubling from Q3 2024's $92.5M.
- Exceptional profitability improvement: Net margin surged to 36.6% in Q1 2026, up from 26.7% in Q1 2025 and just 0.5% in Q3 2024. Operating margin of 37.6% and EBITDA margin of 46.4% demonstrate strong operating leverage.
- Strong free cash flow generation: TTM free cash flow stands at $326.5M, with a PCF ratio of 10.2x, indicating robust cash generation relative to valuation. This supports reinvestment and potential shareholder returns.
- Analyst consensus bullish: 12 analysts rate the stock a Buy (mean 1.54), with an average target of $389.5, implying 4.5% upside from $372.69. The high target of $485 suggests 30.2% upside, reflecting confidence in continued growth.
Bearish
- Extreme volatility and beta: Beta of 3.83 means the stock is nearly 4x more volatile than the market. Max drawdown of -44.7% in the past year highlights significant downside risk, with the stock swinging from $458.25 high to $152.21 low.
- Valuation stretched on forward earnings: Forward PE of 17.5x is higher than trailing PE of 15.1x, implying the market expects slower earnings growth ahead. This could lead to multiple compression if growth decelerates.
- High short interest: Short ratio of 3.81 indicates elevated short interest, suggesting a significant portion of investors are betting against the stock. This could lead to volatility if short squeezes occur, but also reflects skepticism.
- Revenue concentration and competition: Dave relies heavily on subscription revenue and faces intense competition from traditional banks and fintech peers like Chime and SoFi. Any market share loss could pressure growth.
DAVE Technical Analysis
Dave's stock has exhibited a powerful sustained uptrend over the past year, with a 1-year price change of +58.05%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's +18.19% over the same period. The current price of $372.69 sits at 81.3% of its 52-week range (between $152.21 low and $458.25 high), indicating that the stock remains in the upper portion of its range, reflecting strong momentum but also potential overextension. The 6-month price change of +127.68% further underscores the aggressive upward trajectory, with the stock nearly doubling in value over the past six months.
Beta
3.86
3.86x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-44.7%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$152-$458
Price range past year
Annual Return
+86.3%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | DAVE Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -4.9% | +2.8% |
| 3m | +42.5% | +4.2% |
| 6m | +99.4% | +11.3% |
| 1y | +86.3% | +21.5% |
| ytd | +66.4% | +12.7% |
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DAVE Fundamental Analysis
Dave's revenue trajectory is accelerating sharply, with Q1 2026 revenue of $158.4 million, up 46.7% year-over-year, and sequential growth from $107.98 million in Q1 2025. The company has consistently grown revenue over the past several quarters, from $92.49 million in Q3 2024 to $163.72 million in Q4 2025, demonstrating a robust growth trend. This growth is driven by both subscription revenue and other services, with subscriptions contributing $13.95 million in the latest quarter, indicating a diversified revenue base.
Quarterly Revenue
$158414000.0B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+46.7%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
86.9%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$326503000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is DAVE Overvalued?
Given Dave's positive net income, the PE ratio is the most appropriate valuation metric. The trailing PE is 15.11x, while the forward PE is 17.53x, suggesting that the market expects earnings to grow at a slower pace relative to the trailing period, or that forward earnings estimates are conservative. The gap between trailing and forward PE indicates a modest deceleration in earnings growth expectations, which is consistent with the company's high growth phase maturing slightly.
PE
15.1x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 3x~142x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
16.2x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financially, Dave carries low debt (debt-to-equity of 0.21) and strong liquidity (current ratio of 3.83), but its reliance on subscription revenue and short-term liquidity products exposes it to regulatory and credit risks. The company's net margin of 35.3% is impressive, but it could compress if loan loss provisions rise or if customer acquisition costs increase. Cash burn is not a concern given positive free cash flow, but the high beta (3.83) amplifies earnings volatility, and any miss in growth expectations could trigger sharp sell-offs.
FAQ
The key risks are: 1) Financial risk: high volatility (beta 3.83) and potential margin compression if loan losses rise; 2) Competitive risk: intense competition from Chime, SoFi, and traditional banks could slow growth; 3) Regulatory risk: potential regulation of overdraft fees could hurt revenue; 4) Market risk: as a high-beta stock, it is sensitive to market sell-offs, with a max drawdown of -44.7% in the past year. The most severe risk is a combination of growth deceleration and a market correction, which could lead to a 30%+ decline.
The 12-month forecast is bullish with a base case target of $350-$410 (50% probability), aligning with the analyst average of $389.5. The bull case targets $440-$485 (30% probability) if growth accelerates, while the bear case targets $260-$300 (20% probability) if growth disappoints. The most likely scenario is the base case, assuming revenue growth remains around 40% and margins hold. Investors should watch the next earnings report for confirmation.
DAVE appears undervalued relative to its growth potential. The trailing PE of 15.1x is low for a company growing revenue at 46.7% YoY, and the PEG ratio of 0.07 suggests the market is not fully pricing in future earnings growth. However, the forward PE of 17.5x is higher than the trailing PE, indicating that analysts expect earnings growth to slow. Compared to the software industry average PE of around 30x, DAVE trades at a significant discount. The market seems to be pricing in a deceleration, but if growth persists, the stock could re-rate higher.
DAVE is a good buy for investors with a high risk tolerance who believe in the company's growth story. The stock offers a compelling risk/reward with a PEG of 0.07 and analyst average target of $389.5, implying 4.5% upside. However, the high beta (3.83) and recent price weakness (down 4.95% in the last month) mean significant volatility. The biggest downside risk is a growth slowdown, which could push the stock to the analyst low of $260, a 30.2% drop. For those who can stomach the swings, the current valuation appears attractive relative to growth.
DAVE is more suitable for long-term investors who can tolerate high volatility. The company is in a high-growth phase with strong fundamentals, but its beta of 3.83 and short interest of 3.81 make it prone to sharp swings. Short-term trading is possible but risky, as the stock has shown a -44.7% max drawdown. For long-term investors, a minimum holding period of 3-5 years is recommended to ride out volatility and capture the growth potential. The lack of dividend means returns depend on price appreciation, which should be driven by earnings growth.