FSLY

Fastly

$20.46

-1.30%
Jul 22, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Fastly Inc. is a cloud computing company that provides an edge cloud platform for delivering, securing, and optimizing digital experiences, including content delivery, edge computing, and security services. As a specialized edge cloud provider, Fastly differentiates itself through its programmable, high-performance platform that supports cloud-native architectures and AI-driven workloads. The current investor narrative centers on Fastly's turnaround story, driven by accelerating revenue growth and expanding gross margins, but tempered by ongoing profitability concerns and competitive pressures in the edge computing market. Recent news highlights investor focus on the company's ability to sustain growth momentum while improving margins and achieving profitability.

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FSLY 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $20.46
Average Target $20.46
High Target $23.53
Low Target $17.39

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Fastly's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $24.40 and implied upside of +19.3% versus the current price.

Average Target

$24.40

0 analysts

Implied Upside

+19.3%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

covering this stock

Price Range

$18 - $32

Analyst target range

Fastly is covered by 9 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Buy' (mean rating 2.45 on a 1-5 scale, where 1 is Strong Buy). The average target price is $24.11, implying approximately 16.4% upside from the current price of $20.72. The distribution shows a bullish lean, with no sell ratings and a mix of Overweight and Neutral ratings. Recent actions from firms like RBC Capital (Sector Perform) and Keybanc (Overweight) indicate maintained positive sentiment. The target range spans from $18.00 (low) to $32.00 (high), representing a 77.8% spread between low and high, indicating moderate uncertainty. The high target of $32.00 implies 54.4% upside and likely assumes successful execution on growth and margin expansion, possibly driven by AI edge computing adoption. The low target of $18.00 suggests downside risk of 13.1%, potentially pricing in slower growth or competitive losses. The relatively tight range (low to high spread of 77.8%) suggests analysts have moderate conviction in the outlook. Institutional ratings show no recent downgrades, with firms maintaining their positions, which supports the consensus bullish view.

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Bulls vs Bears: FSLY Investment Factors

Fastly presents a compelling turnaround story with accelerating revenue growth (19.76% YoY), expanding gross margins (62.5%), and positive free cash flow ($3.6M). The stock trades at a historically low PS ratio of 2.40x, offering significant upside if the turnaround continues. However, persistent unprofitability, high revenue concentration in CDN services, and extreme post-earnings volatility introduce substantial risk. The bull case currently has stronger evidence given the improving fundamentals and low valuation, but the key tension is whether the company can sustain growth above 15% while achieving GAAP profitability. If margins continue to expand and revenue growth accelerates further, the stock could re-rate significantly; if growth decelerates or profitability stalls, the low valuation could prove justified.

Bullish

  • Accelerating Revenue Growth: Revenue grew 19.76% YoY in Q1 2026 to $173.0M, accelerating from 17.2% in Q4 2025 and 10.9% in Q2 2025. This sustained acceleration supports the turnaround narrative and suggests improving market traction.
  • Expanding Gross Margins: Gross margin improved to 62.5% in Q1 2026 from 51.3% in Q2 2025, a 1120 bps increase. This reflects better cost management and scale benefits, directly boosting the path to profitability.
  • Positive Free Cash Flow: Free cash flow turned positive at $3.6M in Q1 2026, with TTM FCF of $54.7M. This marks a significant improvement from negative FCF in prior quarters, reducing reliance on external financing.
  • Attractive Valuation vs. History: The trailing PS ratio of 2.40x is near the low end of its 5-year range of 6x-80x, well below the historical average of ~20x. This discount could represent a value opportunity if the turnaround materializes.

Bearish

  • Persistent Unprofitability: Net loss was $20.5M in Q1 2026, and net margin remains negative at -11.9%. Despite improvements, the company has not achieved profitability, which limits valuation multiple expansion.
  • High Revenue Concentration: Network Services revenue accounts for 73% of total revenue ($126.2M), making the company heavily dependent on core CDN services. Any slowdown in this segment would significantly impact overall growth.
  • Post-Earnings Volatility: On May 7, 2026, shares plunged after Q1 results failed to ease growth concerns, dropping from ~$32 to ~$19.5. This highlights extreme sensitivity to growth expectations and execution risk.
  • Low Beta May Be Misleading: Beta of 0.343 is unusually low for a tech stock and may reflect the recent recovery from depressed levels. As volatility normalizes, the stock could exhibit higher downside risk than currently priced.

FSLY Technical Analysis

Fastly's stock exhibits a dramatic recovery from its 52-week low of $6.29, with a 1-year price change of +202.48%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's +18.35%. The current price of $20.72 sits at 49.6% of the 52-week range ($6.29–$34.82), indicating the stock is in the middle of its range after a strong rally from the lows. This positioning suggests the stock has recovered from its trough but has not yet reached overbought territory near the highs, leaving room for further upside if momentum continues. The 1-month price change of +19.01% shows accelerating short-term momentum, while the 3-month change of -15.64% indicates a pullback from the March highs, creating a divergence between the short-term recovery and the intermediate-term downtrend. The 1-month relative strength of +18.70% versus the S&P 500 confirms recent outperformance, but the 3-month relative strength of -20.31% suggests the stock has lagged the market over the past quarter. This divergence could signal a potential trend reversal if the recent 1-month strength persists, or a temporary bounce within a larger consolidation. The 52-week high of $34.82 represents key resistance, while the 52-week low of $6.29 is major support. A breakout above $34.82 would signal a resumption of the long-term uptrend, while a breakdown below $6.29 would indicate renewed downside risk. With a beta of 0.343, Fastly is significantly less volatile than the market, which is unusual for a tech stock; this low beta may reflect the stock's recent recovery from depressed levels and could change as volatility normalizes.

Beta

0.34

0.34x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-51.6%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$6-$35

Price range past year

Annual Return

+185.0%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodFSLY ReturnS&P 500
1m+19.2%+0.4%
3m-18.0%+5.5%
6m+120.2%+8.4%
1y+185.0%+18.9%
ytd+100.8%+9.6%

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FSLY Fundamental Analysis

Fastly's revenue trajectory is accelerating, with Q1 2026 revenue of $173.0 million, up 19.76% year-over-year, compared to 17.2% growth in Q4 2025 and 10.9% in Q2 2025. The sequential improvement from $172.6 million in Q4 2025 to $173.0 million in Q1 2026 shows stabilization, while the YoY growth rate has more than doubled from 8.5% in Q2 2025. Revenue segments show Network Services contributing $126.2 million (73% of total) and Security contributing $38.8 million (22%), indicating that core CDN services remain the primary growth driver, with security adding diversification. The accelerating growth trend supports the turnaround narrative, but investors will watch for sustained momentum. Fastly remains unprofitable, with a net loss of $20.5 million in Q1 2026, though this loss narrowed significantly from $37.5 million in Q2 2025. Gross margin improved to 62.5% in Q1 2026 from 51.3% in Q2 2025, reflecting better cost management and scale. Operating margin improved to -13.8% from -24.6% a year ago, indicating progress toward breakeven. However, net margin remains negative at -11.9%, and the company has not yet achieved profitability, which is common for growth-stage software companies. Fastly's balance sheet is healthy, with a current ratio of 2.61 and debt-to-equity of 0.46, indicating low financial leverage. Free cash flow turned positive at $3.6 million in Q1 2026, compared to negative free cash flow in prior quarters, and trailing twelve-month free cash flow is $54.7 million. The company generated $28.4 million in operating cash flow in Q1 2026, sufficient to cover capital expenditures of $24.8 million. ROE is negative at -13.1%, reflecting ongoing losses, but the improving cash flow trend suggests the company can fund operations internally without relying on external financing.

Quarterly Revenue

$173021000.0B

2026-03

Revenue YoY Growth

+19.8%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

62.5%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$54730000.0B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Network Services
Other
Security

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Valuation Analysis: Is FSLY Overvalued?

Since Fastly has negative net income (TTM net loss), the trailing PE ratio is not meaningful; therefore, we use the price-to-sales (PS) ratio as the primary valuation metric. The trailing PS ratio is 2.40x, while the forward PS ratio (based on estimated revenue of $1.00 billion) is approximately 1.49x, implying the market expects significant revenue growth. The gap between trailing and forward PS suggests investors are pricing in a 38% revenue increase over the next year. Compared to the Software - Application industry average PS ratio of approximately 5.0x (industry average not provided, but typical for software), Fastly's trailing PS of 2.40x appears at a discount. However, given Fastly's negative margins and lower growth rate relative to high-growth peers, the discount may be justified. The PEG ratio of 0.45x suggests the stock is undervalued relative to its earnings growth potential, but this metric relies on forward EPS estimates which may be uncertain. Historically, Fastly's PS ratio has ranged from 6x to 80x over the past five years, with the current 2.40x near the low end of its historical range. This low multiple reflects the market's skepticism about the company's path to profitability and competitive pressures. The current PS is well below the 5-year average of ~20x, indicating that the stock is trading at a significant discount to its own history, which could represent a value opportunity if the turnaround materializes, or a value trap if growth disappoints.

PE

-12.3x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

N/A

5-Year PE Range 17x~59x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

-188.3x

Enterprise Value Multiple

Investment Risk Disclosure

Financial & Operational Risks: Fastly's primary financial risk is its persistent unprofitability, with a net loss of $20.5M in Q1 2026 and a net margin of -11.9%. Although free cash flow turned positive, the company still has negative ROE (-13.1%) and ROA (-4.4%), indicating ongoing capital inefficiency. Revenue concentration is a major operational risk, as Network Services (CDN) accounts for 73% of total revenue, making the company vulnerable to competitive pressures or slowdowns in that segment. The debt-to-equity ratio of 0.46 is manageable, but the company's reliance on continued growth to justify its valuation amplifies the impact of any growth deceleration.

Market & Competitive Risks: Fastly faces intense competition from larger players like Cloudflare, Akamai, and AWS, which could pressure pricing and market share. The stock's low beta of 0.343 may be misleading, as the 1-year price change of +202.48% demonstrates extreme volatility. Valuation compression risk is present: while the PS ratio of 2.40x is historically low, it could fall further if growth disappoints or if the market rotates away from unprofitable tech. Recent news highlights that investors remain focused on growth sustainability, as evidenced by the 14% drop on April 15 and the post-Q1 plunge on May 7, 2026.

Worst-Case Scenario: In a severe downturn, Fastly could see its revenue growth decelerate below 10% due to competitive losses or macro headwinds, causing the PS ratio to contract to 1.0x (near the low end of software valuations). This would imply a price of approximately $8.70 (based on estimated revenue of $1.0B and shares outstanding of ~153.6M), representing a -58% decline from the current $20.72. The 52-week low of $6.29 provides a historical reference, implying a -70% downside. An investor could lose up to 70% in this adverse scenario, though the company's improving cash flow and low debt provide some buffer.